Thesis (M.Soc.Sc.)--University of Hong Kong, 1984. / Also available in print.

Thesis (M.Soc.Sc.)--University of Hong Kong, 1985. / Also available in print.

The study developed a model for projecting potential economies from manpower substitution among the four core mental health professions and applied the model to a proposed substitution situation which would substitute psychologists for psychiatrists in the delivery of a proportion of present private practice (fee-for-service) psychiatry services in British Columbia. The model identifies three controlling variables: treatment substitutability (TS), practice privilege constraints (PPC), and relative payment rates (RR). In the model, TS and PPC are conceptualized as determining the estimated substitutable share of costs (SSC%); RR, in combination with the values derived for SSC%, is then used to estimate potential cost savings (CS%). Two conditions were defined for each of the three controlling variables in order to provide a range of possible values for SSC% and CS%. For reasons of data availability, data were obtained from the Manitoba Health Services Commission for private practice psychiatry services for FY 1984 and estimates of SSC% calculated. These estimates were then applied to B.C. Medical Services Commission data for FY 1984, and projected values of CS% calculated. Calculations were made both for all services and for the subset of psychotherapy services, which accounted for 80 percent of the larger set of services. The results of the study indicated considerable possibilities for manpower substitution, ranging from 35 to 70 percent for all services and 40 to 75 percent for psychotherapy services. However, the study also found that while salaried psychologists offered the possibility of substantial cost savings, a fee-for-service arrangement suggested virtually no potential savings. Projected values of CS% for the salaried alternative were 20 to 40 percent for all services and 15 to 30 percent for psychotherapy services but in the fee-for-service alternative, only 4 to 8 percent for all services and 4 to 7 percent for psychotherapy services. Licensure and market rigidities which might pose barriers to implementation were evaluated and a review of professional training standards (TS), licensure standards (PPC), and funding alternatives (RR) indicated that the projected economies could be achieved with no necessity for modifications in existing arrangements. PPC appear to present almost no barriers to economies from the proposed manpower substitution and those barriers which are presented by TS and RR limitations still allow considerable potential for economies. Thus, the greatest opportunities for intervention in achieving and enhancing the projected, economies appear to be in the exploration of relative payment rates and relative effectiveness of treatment methods (e.g., psychotherapy vs. pharmacotherapy). The study concludes with a discussion of factors lying outside the boundaries of the model but which impinge, nonetheless, upon the feasibility of the proposed substitution and fall, necessarily, to policy makers to address. The existing network of B.C. community mental health centres was suggested as a possible mechanism for the delivery of the substitutable share of private practice psychiatry services. / Medicine, Faculty of / Population and Public Health (SPPH), School of / Graduate

published_or_final_version / Business Administration / Master / Master of Business Administration

The objective of this thesis is to examine the returns to mobility of civilian personnel within the Department of Defense (DoD). This study employs panel data provided by the Defense Manpower Data Center (DMDC) and drawn from the Department of Defense Civilian Personnel Data Files. The dataset consisted of 21,143 personnel who were new hires in years 1994-1995. Between 1994-1995 and 2003, 3,267 (15.4%) employees were interstate migrants. The data were set up as an unbalanced panel with a total of 132,068 observations. This study uses ordinary least squares (OLS), probit and Heckman selection-correction techniques to explore two returns to mobility measures: compensation and promotion. Multivariate models were specified and estimated for each performance measure. The results indicated workers who migrate are more likely subsequently to be promoted. Migration is a strategic move for workers to advance and maximize their personal utility since migrants earn higher salaries than non-migrants. Females present no evidence of tied-mover effects, and pursue promotion and salary opportunities like males. Women promote faster than men, and women migrants increase their promotion rates even more. Females, however, earn lower salaries than males. The models also reveal that veterans earn lower salaries than non-veterans and have no significant advantages in promotion over their counterparts.

Each year, manpower planners at Headquarters Marine Corps must forecast the enlisted force structure in order to properly shape it according to a goal, or target force structure. Currently the First Term Alignment Plan (FTAP) Model and Subsequent Term Alignment Plan (STAP) Model are used to determine the number of required reenlistments by Marine military occupational specialty (MOS) and grade. By request of Headquarters Marine Corps, Manpower and Reserve Affairs, this thesis and another, by Captain J.D. Raymond, begin the effort to create one forecasting model that will eventually perform the functions of both the FTAP and STAP models. This thesis predicts the number of reenlistments for first- and subsequent-term Marines using data from the Marine Corps' Total Force Data Warehouse (TFDW). Demographic and service-related variables from fiscal year 2004 were used to create logistic regression models for the FY2005 first-term and subsequent-term reenlistment populations. Classification trees were grown to assist in variable selection and modification. Logistic regression models were compared based on overall fit of the predictions to the FY2005 data. Combined with other research, this thesis can provide Marine manpower planners a means to forecast future force structure by MOS and grade.

This thesis analyzes the retention of Marine Corps aviators before and after 9/11/2001. The retention analysis utilizes data from the Marine Corps' Total Force Data Warehouse (TFDW), the Defense Manpower Data Center (DMDC) PERSTEMPO file, and Aviation Information Resources (AIR), Inc. The retention analysis focuses on how the increased operational tempo resulting from the Global War on Terror has affected the retention behavior of Marine aviators. Results indicate that the deployments resulting from the increased operational tempo post-9/11 have a negative effect on the retention of Marine aviators, as compared to the period before 9/11. The post-9/11 analysis reveals that as the number of deployments increases, non-hostile or hostile, the likelihood of retention decreases. Whereas Pre-9/11 aviators were not affected by deployments, the GWOT aviators have an increasingly negative response to deployments. This thesis provides several recommendations for reducing the effect of increased deployments on retention.

The purpose of this thesis is to identify and evaluate factors that affect retention and promotion of mid-grade officers in the U.S. Marine Corps. The analysis includes evaluation of survival patterns to ten-years of commissioned service and promotion patterns to O-4 and O-5. The primary goal is to explain the effect of an officersâ primary military occupational specialty (PMOS) on retention and promotion. The Marine Corps Commissioned Officer Accession Career (MCCOAC) data file contains cohort information from FY 1980 through FY 1999 and includes 27,659 observations. Using data from the MCCOAC data file, logistic regression and Cox Proportional Hazard models are used to estimate the effects of an officerâ s PMOS on survival and promotion patterns of Marine Corps officers. The findings indicate that an officers PMOS is significantly associated with whether an officer stays until 10 YCS or is promoted to O-4 or O-5. Logistic regression results show that pilot PMOSs are positively correlated with surviving until 10 YCS, but are negatively correlated with promotion to O-4, when compared to Infantry. The results also find that the remaining PMOSs are negatively correlated with whether and officer survives until 10 YCS, when compared to Infantry. In addition, only three PMOSs (0402, 7202, and 7523) are positively correlated with whether an officer is promoted to O-4 or O-5. Finally, the Cox Proportional Hazard results show the effect of having a particular PMOS or occupational field on the hazards of separation and promotion.

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Thesis (Ph.D.)--The Johns Hopkins University, 1996. / Advisers: Andrew Cherlin, Christopher Chase-Dunn. Includes bibliographical references.