We propose a ratio estimator to determine population estimates using capture-recapture sampling. It's different than traditional approaches in the following ways: (1) Ordering of recaptures: Currently data sets do not take into account the "ordering" of the recaptures, although this crucial information is available to them at no cost. (2) Dependence of trials and cluster sampling: Our model explicitly considers trials to be dependent and improves existing literature which assumes independence. (3) Rate of convergence: The percentage sampled has an inverse relationship with population size, for a chosen degree of accuracy. (4) Asymptotic Attainment of Minimum Variance (Open Systems: (=population variance). (5) Full use of data and model applicability (6) Non-parametric (7) Heterogeneity: When units being sampled are hard to identify. (8) Open and closed systems: Simpler results are presented separately for closed systems. (9) Robustness to assumptions in open systems

Thesis (MComm)--Stellenbosch University, 2015. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Tsetse flies (Glossina spp), native to mid-continental Africa, are the vectors of trypanosomes that causes human (sleeping sickness) and animal (nagana) trypanosomiasis. Vector control plays a major role in alleviating the burden of the disease. Mathematical models of tsetse population dynamics provide insights into how best to manage these control efforts. A major mark-recapture experiment, carried out in Zimbabwe, provided valuable information on tsetse population dynamics, but the analyses so far published could be improved on because not all of the information available on the marking procedure was used. We have constructed an individual-based model that follows the life of individual tsetse flies, their progeny and, in particular, the sequence of occasions on which individual flies were captured and given distinctive marks. We have access to comprehensive data from the tsetse fly mark-release-recapture experiment carried out on Antelope Island, Lake Kariba, Zimbabwe. In order to calibrate or validate the model, we model both the growth of the introduced tsetse population and the mark-recapture process. We have compared the model outputs to the original data and recommend processes that may be followed for model calibration. It is possible to construct an individual-based model that adequately models tsetse fly populations. Whereas the focus of this study has been on modelling the mark-recapture study, the individual-based model could also be used in more general settings to model the growth, and reduction in fly numbers, changes in age structure, species and gender ratios and the acquisition of trypanosome infections by individual flies. This model can thus be used to investigate the effect of various factors on tsetse fly and trypanosome, population dynamics as well as on the performance of various control techniques effecting fly mortality and disease transmission. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Tsetsevlieë (Glossina spp), inheems aan sentraalkontinentale Afrika, is die draers van trypanosomen wat trypanosomiasis by die mens (slaapsiekte) en by diere (nagana) veroorsaak. Die beheer van draers speel 'n belangrike rol om die las wat die siekte veroorsaak, te verlig. Wiskundige modelle van tsetse bevolkingsdinamika bied insigte oor hoe om beheerpogings die beste te bestuur. 'n Belangrike merk-hervang eksperiment, wat in Zimbabwe uitgevoer is, bevat waardevolle inligting oor tsetse bevolkingsdinamika. Die ontleding daarvan, wat tot dusver gepubliseer is, kan egter verbeter word aangesien nie al die inligting beskikbaar in die merkprosedure, gebruik is nie. Ons het 'n individu-gebaseerde model saamgestel wat die lewens van individuele tsetsevlieë en hul nageslagte volg, in besonder die volgorde waarop individuele vlieë gevang en herkenbaar gemerk is. Ons het toegang tot omvattende data van die tsetsevlieg merk-vrylaat-hervang eksperiment wat uitgevoer is op Antelope Eiland, Karibadam, Zimbabwe. Ten einde die model te kalibreer of om die model se geldigheid te bevestig, modelleer ons beide die groei van die ingevoerde tsetse bevolking en die merk-hervangs metode. Ons vergelyk die modeluitsette met die oorspronklike data en beveel prosesse aan wat gevolg kan word om die model te kalibreer. Dit is moontlik om 'n individu-gebaseerde model saam te stel wat tsetsevliegbevolkings voldoende moduleer. Terwyl hierdie studie die modellering van die merk-hervang data bestudeer, kan die individueel-gebaseerde model ook gebruik word in meer algemene gevalle vir die modellering van die vermeerdering en vermindering in vlieë getalle, veranderinge in die ouderdomstruktuur, spesies en geslagverhoudings en die verwerwing van trypanosomen infeksies deur individuele vlieë. Hierdie model kan dus gebruik word om die effek te ondesoek van verskeie faktore op die tsetsevlieg en trypanosomen, populasiedinamiek sowel as die prestasie van verskillende beheertegnieke rakende vliegsterftes en siekte-oordrag.

Mosquitoes spread diseases that shorten and worsen the lives of many people, chiefly children in poor countries, around the world. Since Ronald Ross' discovery at the end of the nineteenth century that mosquitoes transmit malaria, field entomologists have collected a great deal of information about mosquito ecology. Despite this tremendous effort, there still remain significant gaps in our knowledge of mosquito ecology, in part, reflecting the significant variation in mosquito ecology across species and geographies. The main aim of this thesis is an attempt to synthesise the substantial information that field entomologists have collected on mosquito lifespan. In Chapters 2 and 3, I conduct meta-analyses of the two predominant approaches used to estimate mosquito lifespan: mark-release-recapture experiments and female mosquito dissection-based studies, respectively. These analyses produce estimates of mosquito lifespan by species and genus, and more broadly, allow for an appraisal of these two experimental approaches. In Chapter 4, I describe a recently developed approach, known as near-infrared spectroscopy, which enables estimation of the age of individual mosquitoes, and then perform an in silico analysis to explore the use of this technology for estimating the average lifespan of wild populations of mosquitoes. The emergence of mosquito resistance to the main insecticides used in vector control, along with the concerning recent discovery that the malaria parasites in Asia are becoming resistant to arteminisin - an important drug used to treat malaria - highlight the need for novel approaches to control disease transmission. Some recently-proposed approaches involve genetic modification of the mosquito vectors, for example, to render them incapable of acting as hosts for disease or to reduce their fecundity. In Chapter 5, I model the impact of a release of mosquitoes carrying a genetic construct known as a homing endonuclease, which has been constructed to bias the sex of mosquito offspring towards males, in computational environments that capture some facets of the real life landscapes where mosquito borne disease is rife. About a century ago, the famous Italian Malariologist Giovanni Grassi declared that malaria was a "giant with clay feet"; reflecting the optimism, in some academic circles at the time, that eradication of this terrible disease would soon occur. Unfortunately, a century of often unsuccessful attempts to control and eradicate malaria, and other mosquito borne diseases, would follow Grassi's statement, meaning that this fight is likely to continue throughout the twenty-first century. We now know much more about mosquitoes and mosquito borne disease than we did a generation ago, but there is still crucial information that we do not. In this thesis, I argue that in order to make significant inroads to disease eradication, further research on mosquito ecology is crucial. Only when we better understand our unwitting mosquito foe, can we design and implement effective disease control measures that are so desperately needed in those most desperate parts of the world.

Documenting life history characteristics of populations, especially of herbivorous insects such as butterflies, is fundamental to the ecological study of tropical rainforests. However, we know relatively little about tropical forest butterflies. Here, I combine information gathered using the mark-release-recapture (MRR) approach with manipulative and observational experiments in a natural environment to explore aspects of the population biology of three closely-related species of Costa Rican fruit-feeding understory butterflies (Cithaerias pireta, Dulcedo polita, and Pierella helvina), specifically: vertical stratification, attraction to and persistence in fruit-baited traps, relative abundance and distribution, movement patterns, probabilities of recapture and daily survival, and factors that affect those probabilities. Among the three focal species there were differences in capturability, recapturability, spatial distribution, and degree of vertical stratification. Males appear to fly within smaller home ranges than females, and P. helvina can traverse the entire forest reserve in a single day. These findings have implications for the genetic diversity of these populations and for the risk of local extinction in the face of changing ecological conditions.

The thesis describes the community composition, population structure and dispersal in a lowland rainforest community, extended to changes in butterfly composition along an altitudinal gradient. It tests the feasibility of mark-release-recapture studies in the understories of lowland primary forests, describes dispersal in relation to host plants and compares dispersal and demographic parameters with temperate species. Focusing on primary as well as secondary sites the thesis analyzes species richness and similarity between sites along an altitudinal gradient. It also tests ecological correlates for endemism in New Guinea butterflies, particularly their geographic and altitudinal range, as well as their optimum altitude.

[EN] The management of Rhynchophorus ferrugineus (Coleoptera: Dryophthoridae), the worst threat for palm trees worldwide, consists in several preventive and curative techniques, but because of its low efficacy the insect still causes major economic and landscape losses. In order to define aspects that have facilitated its rapid dispersal and contribute to improving its management, the effects of vision and flight, which influence the mobility of R. ferrugineus, have been analysed. The chromatic preference of R. ferrugineus has been studied by analysing their captures in coloured bucket traps. Black traps capture the highest number of insects compared with the other colours studied, both when they contain olfactory attractants, as when these compounds are not used, demonstrating that colour by itself is a crucial attraction factor. Moreover, the spectral reflectance of studied colours and of some P. canariensis tissues has been analysed. The wavelength spectrum of black shows great similarity to that of fibres of P. canariensis, so this may be the reason why R. ferrugineus prefers this colour. Regarding sex ratio of the insect in traps, female captures are significantly greater in those baited with olfactory attractants. However, a higher number of female captures does not always occur when these compounds are not used. On the other hand, the study of sex ratio in natural populations of the insect demonstrates that the proportion is one female per male. Therefore, the greater number of captures of females in commercial traps is due exclusively to their greater attraction towards the olfactory attractants used. Another of the analysed aspects has been the flight potential of R. ferrugineus under laboratory conditions. In order to know more about the mobility of this insect, different parameters have been studied using a computer-monitored flight mill. The selected parameters used to define the R. ferrugineus flight potential have been the number of flights, total distance flown, longest single flight, flight duration, and average and maximum speed. Moreover, the influence of sex, body size, and age of the adults on the aforementioned parameters has been examined. R. ferrugineus sex does not have a significant effect on the compared flight parameters. The body size in females is significantly greater, but this does not influence their flight potential. A higher percentage of flight is observed for adults with an age range of 8-23 days old, compared to the 1-7 day old adults. However, age does not significantly influence their flight potential. By analysing the longest single flight undertaken by each adult, up to 63% of the insects can be classified as short-distance flyers (<500m), 27.3% as medium-distance flyers (500-5000m), and >9% as long-distance flyers (>5000m). Finally, the flight behaviour and dispersal of R. ferrugineus have been analysed under field conditions using the mark-release-recapture method. This test focused on detecting the influence of different factors, such as sex, temperature, relative humidity, and solar radiation, in the take-off and dispersal of the adult insects. Take-off probability of R. ferrugineus adults is significantly greater in males Moreover, this probability increases when temperature and solar radiation rise. Concerning the insect dispersal by flying, the number of recaptures is influenced by temperature, increasing significantly when this factor increases. Likewise, dispersal distances also increase significantly as temperatures rise. The insect tends to fly distances <500m (77.1% of recaptured adults), following the same tendency observed in studies performed using the flight mill. However, R. ferrugineus is able to travel up to 7km, being recorded under laboratory conditions a potential flight up to 20km. To conclude, dispersal time of the adults is very short (more than 90% of the adults were recaptured during the first 7 days), being significantly lower when relative humidity increases. / [ES] El manejo de Rhynchophorus ferrugineus (Coleoptera: Dryophthoridae), una de las peores amenazas para las palmeras en el mundo, se lleva a cabo mediante la aplicación de diversas técnicas de prevención y control, pero debido a la baja eficacia de éstas la plaga continúa causando importantes pérdidas económicas y paisajísticas. Para definir los aspectos que han intervenido en su dispersión y contribuir a mejorar su manejo, se ha analizado el efecto de la visión y el vuelo en la movilidad de los adultos de R. ferrugineus. Se ha estudiado la preferencia cromática mediante el análisis de sus capturas en trampas cubo coloreadas. Las trampas negras capturan el mayor nº de insectos en comparación con el resto de colores estudiados, tanto cuando contienen atrayentes olfativos como cuando no los contienen, demostrando que el color por sí mismo es un factor importante de atracción. Además, se ha analizado el espectro de longitud de onda de los colores estudiados y de diversos tejidos de P. canariensis. El espectro del color negro muestra gran similitud con el de las fibras de P. canariensis, es por esto por lo que R. ferrugineus podría presentar esta preferencia. En relación a la proporción de sexos en trampas que contienen atrayentes olfativos, las capturas de hembras son significativamente más elevadas. En cambio, sin éstos no siempre se produce un mayor nº de capturas de este sexo. Por otro lado, el estudio de la proporción de sexos en poblaciones naturales muestra una ratio de una hembra por macho. Por tanto, las mayores capturas de hembras en trampas se deben a una mayor atracción de éstas hacia los atrayentes olfativos. Otro aspecto estudiado ha sido el potencial de vuelo de R. ferrugineus bajo condiciones de laboratorio. Con la finalidad de conocer la movilidad de este insecto se han analizado diversos parámetros mediante la utilización de un molinillo de vuelo computerizado. Los parámetros estudiados han sido: nº vuelos, distancia total volada, vuelo más largo, duración del vuelo y velocidades media y máxima. Además, se ha analizado como influye el sexo, el tamaño del cuerpo y la edad de los adultos en dichos parámetros de vuelo. El sexo de R. ferrugineus no muestra un efecto significativo sobre los parámetros de vuelo comparados. El tamaño del cuerpo de las hembras es significativamente mayor, pero no influye estadísticamente en su potencial de vuelo. En adultos con edades de entre 8-23 días se observa un mayor porcentaje de vuelo que en aquellos con 1-7 días de edad. En cambio, la edad no influye significativamente sobre su potencial de vuelo. Al analizar el vuelo más largo, obtenemos que >63% de los insectos se clasifican como voladores de corta distancia (<500m), el 27.3% de media distancia (500-5000m), y >9% de larga distancia (>5000m). Finalmente, se ha analizado en campo el comportamiento de vuelo y dispersión de R. ferrugineus mediante la técnica de marcaje-suelta-recaptura. Este ensayo ha permitido estudiar la influencia del sexo, la temperatura (Tª), la humedad relativa y la radiación solar, en el despegue y dispersión de los adultos. La probabilidad de despegue de R. ferrugineus es significativamente mayor en machos. Además, esta probabilidad se incrementa cuando la Tª y la radiación solar aumentan. Respecto a la dispersión del insecto mediante el vuelo, el nº de recapturas se ve influenciado por la Tª, aumentando significativamente cuando ésta se incrementa. De la misma manera, las distancias de dispersión también se incrementan significativamente a media que lo hace la Tª. El insecto tiende a volar distancias <500m (77.1% de los adultos recapturados), siguiendo la misma tendencia observada en laboratorio. No obstante, R. ferrugineus es capaz de recorrer hasta 7km, llegando a registrarse vuelos potenciales en laboratorio de hasta 20km. Por último, el tiempo de dispersión de los adultos es muy corto (>90% se recapturaron en los 7 primeros días), reduciéndose / [CAT] El maneig de Rhynchophorus ferrugineus (Coleoptera: Dryophthoridae), una de les pitjors amenaces per a les palmeres en tot el món, es porta a terme mitjançant l'aplicació de diverses tècniques de prevenció i control, però degut a la baixa eficàcia d'aquestes l'insecte continua causant importants pèrdues econòmiques i paisatgístiques. Per a definir els aspectes que han intervingut en la seua dispersió i contribuir a la millora del seu maneig, s'ha analitzat l'efecte que tenen la visió i el vol en la mobilitat dels adults de R. ferrugineus. S'ha estudiat la preferència cromàtica mitjançant l'anàlisi de les seues captures en trampes poal acolorides. Les trampes negres capturen el major nombre d'insectes en comparació amb la resta de colors estudiats, tant quan contenen atraients olfactius com quan no els contenen, demostrant que el color per ell mateix és un factor important d'atracció. A més, s'ha analitzat l'espectre de longitud d'ona dels colors estudiats i de diversos teixits de P. canariensis. L'espectre del color negre mostra gran similitud amb el de les fibres de P. canariensis, és per açò pel que R. ferrugineus podria presentar aquesta preferència. En relació a la proporció de sexes a les trampes que contenen atraients olfactius, les captures de femelles són significativament més elevades. En canvi, sense aquests no sempre es produeix un major nombre de captures d'aquest sexe. Per altra banda, l'estudi de la proporció de sexes en poblacions naturals demostra que la ràtio és d'una femella per mascle. Per tant, les majors captures de femelles en trampes es deuen a una major atracció d'aquestes cap als atraients olfactius utilitzats. Altre aspecte estudiat ha sigut el potencial de vol de R. ferrugineus sota condicions de laboratori. Amb la finalitat de conèixer la mobilitat d'aquest insecte s'han analitzat diversos paràmetres mitjançant la utilització d'un molinet de vol computeritzat. Els paràmetres estudiats han sigut: nombre de vols, distància total volada, vol més llarg, duració del vol i velocitats mitjana i màxima dels vols. A més, s'ha analitzat com influeixen el sexe, el tamany del cos i l'edat dels adults en dits paràmetres de vol. El sexe de R. ferrugineus no mostra un efecte significatiu sobre els paràmetres de vol comparats. El tamany del cos de les femelles és significativament major, però no influeix estadísticament en el seu potencial de vol. En adults amb edats d'entre 8-23 dies s'observa un major percentatge de vol que en aquells amb 1-7 dies d'edat. En canvi, l'edat no influeix significativament sobre el seu potencial de vol. En analitzar el vol més llarg, obtenim que més del 63% dels insectes es classifiquen com voladors de curta distància (<500m), el 27.3% de mitja distància (500-5000m), i >9% de llarga distància (>5000m). Finalment, s'ha analitzat en camp el comportament de vol i dispersió de R. ferrugineus mitjançant la tècnica de marcatge-solta-recaptura. Aquest assaig ha permès estudiar la influència del sexe, la temperatura, la humitat relativa i la radiació solar, en l'enlairament i dispersió dels adults. La probabilitat d'enlairament de R. ferrugineus és significativament major en mascles A més, aquesta probabilitat s'incrementa quan la temperatura i la radiació solar augmenten. Respecte a la dispersió de l'insecte mitjançant el vol, el nombre de recaptures es veu influenciat per la temperatura, augmentant significativament quan aquesta s'incrementa. De la mateixa manera, les distàncies de dispersió també s'incrementen significativament a mesura que ho fa la temperatura. L'insecte tendeix a volar distàncies <500m (77.1% dels adults recapturats), seguint la mateixa tendència observada en laboratori. No obstant, R. ferrugineus és capaç de recórrer fins a 7km, arribant-se a registrar vols potencials en laboratori de fins a 20km. Per últim, el temps de dispersió dels adults és molt curt (>90% es recapturaren en els 7 primers die / Ávalos Masó, JA. (2015). Factors influencing the mobility of Red Palm Weevil Rhynchophorus ferrugineus (Coleoptera: Dryophthoridae) adults [Tesis doctoral no publicada]. Universitat Politècnica de València. https://doi.org/10.4995/Thesis/10251/59394 / TESIS

This work applies advanced sampling (mark-release-recapture) and comparative approaches addressing the patterns in composition, structure and variability of larval trematode communities in three species of gastropod molluscs (Lymnaea stagnalis, Planorbarius corneus and Radix auricularia) at two nested scales of community organisation in typical Central European eutrophic environments. Hypothesis-testing with the application of null-model analyses, logistic regression modelling and multivariate randomisation techniques, revealed determinants of transmission rates, levels of infection and community structure in freshwater snail hosts in Central Europe and elucidated the mechanisms linking the spatial and temporal environmental variability with the action of complex community assembly rules in freshwater pulmonate snails.