The history of man is written in choice. Whether simple or complex, on a whim or after labored consideration, inflamed by passion or calculated coolly, the judgments that we form and the choices that we make define who we are and what we want for the future. Yet most of us have little or no conscious awareness of the inner workings of our own minds. We often choose without understanding or accounting for the perceptions, intuitions, and inferences that underlie our decisions. So how do people make decisions? How do we cope with the volume and complexity of information in our environment without being overwhelmed? How do we use our senses to select and process this information, and how do we organize, contextualize, and conceptualize it once it reaches our brains? How do we form judgments about the value of a specific piece of information or about the likelihood of a particular event or outcome? And what are the factors that lead us astray? The search for answers to these questions is more than academic; understanding the fundamentals of perception and cognition is critical to effective analysis and decision-making. For those involved in national security, and particularly for those involved in the collection and analysis of national intelligence, an appreciation of the intricacies of these processes has real-world implications. As evidenced by the dramatic intelligence failures of the last few years, and in particular by the mistaken assessment concerning Iraqi weapons of mass destruction, understanding how we arrive at judgments and decisions can be quite literally a matter of life and death.

The changing nature of terrorist attacks in the previous decade has cast doubt on the commonly accepted constraints on terrorist violence. Claims that these constraints are eroding has led to an unstudied assumption that modern terrorist groups, and al-Qaeda in particular, are not subject to constituency constraints. Most alarming is the possibility that al-Qaeda, allegedly unconcerned with alienating supporters, will attack the United States with weapons of mass destruction (WMD). Yet no detailed study of al-Qaeda's constituency constraints has been undertaken, even though they devote considerable effort to win popular support among Muslims. This thesis reveals that al-Qaeda seeks the support of a constituency as the central pillar of their strategy. This constituency, contrary to Western portrayals, largely does not support indiscriminate killing and would not support a WMD attack. Al-Qaeda is aware of this sentiment, and as a pragmatic group is willing to alter their methods to gain supporters. Consequently, al-Qaeda is not likely to conduct such an attack for fear of alienating this constituency.

Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited / The United States invaded Iraq in 2003 to compel compliance with UN disarmament mandates. The invasion exposed the lack of a standing organization to conduct WMD elimination as a serious capability gap in the U.S. military force structure. This thesis demonstrates why it is necessary to establish such a capability. It argues that the United States cannot rely solely on multilateral, cooperative approaches to eliminate a determined adversaryâ s weapons program. While non-coercive tactics are preferred, the mixed results of twelve-years of UN verification in Iraq show that a viable threat of force must accompany these approaches in order to induce compliance with UN Security Council disarmament mandates. Additionally, the U.S. elimination effort in Iraq demonstrated that ad hoc approaches inadequately address this capability shortfall. The lack of integrated training, unsecured sites because of inadequate prioritization, and misaligned intelligence assets are just some of the problems that occurred during the ad hoc OPERATION IRAQI FREEDOM elimination operation. When cooperative, nonproliferation measures fail to rollback aggressor statesâ WMD programs, DoD must have the capability to compel compliance if called upon. This thesis makes recommendations to facilitate the development of a viable and sustainable WMD elimination capability. / Outstanding Thesis

Thesis (M.A. in Security Studies (Homeland Security and Defense))--Naval Postgraduate School, December 2009. / Thesis Advisor(s): Moltz, James Clay. Second Reader: Davis, Zachary. "December 2009." Description based on title screen as viewed on January 26, 2010. Author(s) subject terms: Nuclear, terrorism, domestic, risk, Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD), Global Nuclear Detection Architecture, Cooperative Threat Reduction(CTR), Department of Energy (DOE), Department of Defense (DoD), Department of Homeland Security (DHS), Department of State (DOS), Russia, Highly-Enriched Uranium, Plutonium. Includes bibliographical references (p. 99-105). Also available in print.

Thesis (M.S. in Information Warfare Systems Engineering)--Naval Postgraduate School, December 2009. / Thesis Advisor(s): Arquilla, John. Second Reader: Iatrou, Steve. "December 2009." Description based on title screen as viewed on January 27, 2010. Author(s) subject terms: Weapons of mass distruction, NES National Election Studies, public opinion, Vietnam war, Iraq war, President Johnson, Presisent Bush. Includes bibliographical references (p. 93-94). Also available in print.

Thesis (M.A. in National Security Affairs)--Naval Postgraduate School, September 2003. / Thesis advisor(s): David S. Yost, James Wirtz. Includes bibliographical references. Also available online.

Thesis (M.A. in Security Studies (Defense Decision-Making & Planning))--Naval Postgraduate School, December 2007. / AD-A475 821. "December 2007." Description based on title screen as viewed on January 17, 2008. Thesis Advisor(s): Russell, James A. ; Kadhim, Abbas. Includes bibliographical references (p. 67-71). Also available via the World Wide Web.

Thesis (M.A.)--Naval Postgraduate School, 2003. / Title from title screen (viewed Jan. 28, 2005). "September 2003." Includes bibliographical references. Also issued in paper format.

Thesis (Ed. D.)--West Virginia University, 2005. / Title from document title page. Document formatted into pages; contains vii, 156 p. : ill. (some col.). Includes abstract. Includes bibliographical references (p. 96-110).

Thesis (M.A. in Security Studies (Homeland Security and Defense))--Naval Postgraduate School, March 2010. / Thesis Advisor(s): Bergin, Richard ; Josefek, Robert. "March 2010." Description based on title screen as viewed on April 26, 2010. Author(s) subject terms: Interagency Modeling Atmpspheric Assessment Center (IMAAC), Plume Model, NARAC, Cincinnati Fire Department. Includes bibliographical references (p. 99-103). Also available in print.