This dissertation examines issues related to avian influenza (AI) disease. This is done via three essays that individually examine: (1) the impacts of climate change on the probability and expected numbers of AI outbreaks and associated economic loss; (2) the effects that media coverage of AI outbreaks has on meat demand in the United States, and (3) the potential effectiveness of AI mitigation strategies on poultry production and welfare under a simulated AI outbreak in United States. The climate change and spread of AI outbreaks study finds that the probability and expected number of AI outbreaks increases as climate change proceeds. Particularly, past climate change has contributed to the current spread of AI disease by 11% and the future climate change will increase this spread by another 12%. Moreover, the underreporting probability of AI outbreaks is also examined and results show that the underreporting probability is much higher in countries with lower gross domestic production level, larger export of poultry products and more numbers of AI confirmed human deaths. Therefore, disease prevention and control plans should focus on these economically poor and climatically changed regions. AI outbreak information has significant effects on meat demand in the United States. In particular, impacts of overseas AI human deaths on meat demand equal 0.02% for beef, -0.005% for pork, and -0.01% for chicken for sample when there was no AI occurred in the United States, while it has smaller impacts on meat expenditure when using the whole sample. In addition, human deaths due to AI disease will increase beef demand and decrease that for pork and chicken. However, AI media coverage in short-run has insignificant effect on meat demand, which suggests that consumers are more cautious when cases occur within the United States as opposed to international cases. In the study on the effects and welfare implications of AI mitigation strategies, results find that vaccination strategy is welfare decreasing under most cases of demand shocks but is desirable in some regions when both domestic and excess demand decrease. Under the assumption of one AI outbreak in the United States, the associated mitigation costs because of past climate change are relatively small.

This study focuses on the variability of Canadian's value added meat purchase patterns by animal species, by level of processing, by branding and by grocery store chains. The results highlight that meat price, advertising and household socio-demographic characteristics and regional segments are strongly related to meat demand. The findings also indicate that there is no one correct pattern of meat product development across animal products from different species. In addition grocery store meat purchase exhibits little store loyalty most households purchase meat at more than one store chain regularly. The implications of the study suggest the importance of meat marketing segmentation by socioeconomic and household demographic factors in the development of marketing programs and product promotion for the food industry in general and meat industry to expand sales by targeting marketing strategies. Public health implications include the fact that habit persistence is important and likely an impediment to behaviour changes. / Agricultural and Resource Economics

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The improper aggregation of commodities can have important consequences when estimating a system of group demand equations. Generally, aggregates are created under the assumptions that intra-group preferences are homothetic and the consumer's utility function is weakly separable over some partition. These assumptions place severe restrictions on the model that can significantly impact parameter and elasticity estimates. An alternative to imposing weak separability is to employ the Generalized Composite Commodity Theorem, which requires the relative intra-group commodity prices to be independent of the group price index. This study compares the results of estimating a demand system for composite beef, pork, and poultry products under the assumptions of weak separability and the Generalized Composite Commodity Theorem. Another important issue related to aggregation is the specification of an appropriate group price index. Price indices consistent with linear homogeneous preferences (a subset of the homothetic class of preferences) and non-homothetic intra-group preferences are identified and it is shown that several of the commonly employed indices are biased in the absence of complete price data. / Master of Science

This dissertation consists of three chapters. The first chapter titled ``U.S. Grass-fed Beef Price Premiums" examined monthly retail-level price premiums for grass-fed beef (relative to conventional grain-fed beef) in the U.S. from 2014 through 2021. We found that premiums were heterogeneous, with premium cuts (such as sirloin steak, tenderloin, ribeye, and filet mignon) enjoying the highest premiums. Premiums were not consistent with price levels, as the lowest premiums were observed for short ribs, skirt steak, and flank steak. Our findings suggest that grass-fed beef price premiums were negatively affected by the consumption of food away from home. Changes in income, increased information about taste, protein and minerals, fat, revocation of the USDA grass-fed certification program in 2016 and COVID-19 pandemic, also affected premiums for several individual cuts. Premiums were not sensitive to changes in information about climate change. The second chapter, ``Impact of Animal Disease Outbreaks on The U.S. Meat Demand'', examined the impact of the mad cow (BSE) and bird flu (AI) outbreaks on the demand for beef, pork, and broilers in the U.S from 1997 to 2019. Using time-varying elasticities obtained from a Rotterdam model with animal disease cases, we found that BSE outbreaks reduced beef consumption by 0.64 percent and increased pork consumption by 2.34 percent, on average. While BSE outbreaks reduced beef demand, these effects were short lived and did not extend beyond one quarter. On the other hand, broiler consumption decreased during the HPAI outbreaks while beef and broiler consumption increased after such outbreaks. Our time-varying cross-price elasticities indicated that substitution between beef and broilers and beef and pork strengthened after Quarter 4 of 2003. The third chapter is titled ``Impact of North American Mad Cow Disease Outbreaks on The U.S. Cattle Futures". Our study developed a distributional event response model (DERM) framework to show the duration and magnitude of market responses of the U.S. cattle futures market during episodes of mad cow disease (BSE) in North America between 2010 and 2019. Our results indicated that the 2017 U.S. BSE outbreak reduced the returns of live cattle futures. Additionally, the average duration of the BSE event response was about 8.5 days. / Doctor of Philosophy / This dissertation focused on the price analysis of the U.S. livestock market. The first chapter analysed the pattern of grass-fed beef price premiums measured as the difference between grass-fed beef price and conventional beef price. We mainly explored how the premiums were affected by consumers' income, food consumption away from home, and information on climate change, beef taste, and nutrition. We found that consumption of food away from home reduced the grass-fed beef price premiums. In addition, increased information about taste, protein and minerals, fat, and COVID-19 pandemic, could also affected the grass-fed premiums for several individual cuts. The second chapter explored how mad cow diseases and bird flu diseases affected the demand for beef, pork, and chicken. We particularly investigated how each disease outbreak affected the meat demand. My result showed that in the presence of mad cow diseases in the U.S., people bought more pork. This result that retailers should have higher pork demand when mad cow diseases are detected. The third chapter explored how mad cow diseases in North America affected the U.S. live cattle futures. We showed that the U.S. mad cow disease in 2017 reduced the returns of U.S. cattle futures and this impact lasted about 8.5 days. Simultaneously, we found that mad cow disease outbreaks in Canada did not significantly affect the U.S. cattle futures.