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Mechanistic-empirical failure prediction models for spring weight restricted flexible pavements in Manitoba using Manitoba and MnROAD instrumented test sitesKavanagh, Leonnie 27 June 2013 (has links)
Pavement damage due to heavy loads on thaw weakened flexible pavements is a major
concern for road agencies in Western Canada. To protect weaker, low volume roads,
agencies impose spring weight restrictions (SWR) during the spring thaw to reduce
pavement damage. While SWR may be cost effective for highway agencies, reducing the
spring weight allowances can have a major impact on truck productivity and shipping
costs. Therefore an improved process that links SWR loads to pavement damage, and
based on limiting failure strain, is required.
This thesis developed Local mechanistic-empirical damage models to predict fatigue and
rutting failure on two spring weight restricted (SWR) flexible pavements in Manitoba.
The Local damage models were used to assess the SWR loads that regulate commercial
vehicle weights in Manitoba based on a limiting strain relationship between truck loads
and damage. The Local damage models and a calibrated Finite Element Model (FEM)
were used to predict the equivalent single axle load (ESAL) repetitions to fatigue and
rutting failure at varying B-Train axle loads at the Manitoba sites. The Local model
predictions were compared to predictions from the Asphalt Institute (AI) and Mechanistic
Empirical Design Guide (MEPDG) damage models. The results of the analysis showed
that for each 1% increase in load, there was a corresponding 1% increase in strain, and up
to 3% decrease in ESAL repetitions to failure, depending on the Local, AI, or MEPDG
damage models. The limiting failure strains, computed from the Local model for design
ESALs of 100,000, were 483μm/m and 1,008μm/m for fatigue and rutting failure,
respectively. For the Manitoba sites, the predicted FEM strains at B-Train normal and
SWR loads were higher than the Local model limiting strains. Therefore the Manitoba ii
SWR loads regulating B-Train operations on the two pavements during the spring period
appeared to be reasonable. It is recommended that the research findings be verified with
further calibration and validation of the Local damage model using a larger data set of
low volume flexible pavements. A strain-based concept on how to manage the SWR
regime in Manitoba based on the limiting strains was developed and presented. Read more
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THE EFFECT OF LOOSE MIX AGING ON THE PERFORMANCE PROPERTIES OF WARM ASPHALTSClements, Thomas Martin 01 January 2011 (has links)
Recent improvements in warm mix asphalt technologies have spurred an aggressive adoption of these new practices within the asphalt paving industry. Concerns have arisen among federal and state agencies about the effects of this line of products on the performance of asphalt pavements. An investigation of the effects of lowering mixing, aging and compactions temperatures while varying the loose mix aging time was performed. Hamburg Wheel Tracking, Flow Number, Dynamic Modulus and Fracture Energy testing were used to evaluate mechanistic properties of the materials.
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Mechanistic-empirical failure prediction models for spring weight restricted flexible pavements in Manitoba using Manitoba and MnROAD instrumented test sitesKavanagh, Leonnie 27 June 2013 (has links)
Pavement damage due to heavy loads on thaw weakened flexible pavements is a major
concern for road agencies in Western Canada. To protect weaker, low volume roads,
agencies impose spring weight restrictions (SWR) during the spring thaw to reduce
pavement damage. While SWR may be cost effective for highway agencies, reducing the
spring weight allowances can have a major impact on truck productivity and shipping
costs. Therefore an improved process that links SWR loads to pavement damage, and
based on limiting failure strain, is required.
This thesis developed Local mechanistic-empirical damage models to predict fatigue and
rutting failure on two spring weight restricted (SWR) flexible pavements in Manitoba.
The Local damage models were used to assess the SWR loads that regulate commercial
vehicle weights in Manitoba based on a limiting strain relationship between truck loads
and damage. The Local damage models and a calibrated Finite Element Model (FEM)
were used to predict the equivalent single axle load (ESAL) repetitions to fatigue and
rutting failure at varying B-Train axle loads at the Manitoba sites. The Local model
predictions were compared to predictions from the Asphalt Institute (AI) and Mechanistic
Empirical Design Guide (MEPDG) damage models. The results of the analysis showed
that for each 1% increase in load, there was a corresponding 1% increase in strain, and up
to 3% decrease in ESAL repetitions to failure, depending on the Local, AI, or MEPDG
damage models. The limiting failure strains, computed from the Local model for design
ESALs of 100,000, were 483μm/m and 1,008μm/m for fatigue and rutting failure,
respectively. For the Manitoba sites, the predicted FEM strains at B-Train normal and
SWR loads were higher than the Local model limiting strains. Therefore the Manitoba ii
SWR loads regulating B-Train operations on the two pavements during the spring period
appeared to be reasonable. It is recommended that the research findings be verified with
further calibration and validation of the Local damage model using a larger data set of
low volume flexible pavements. A strain-based concept on how to manage the SWR
regime in Manitoba based on the limiting strains was developed and presented. Read more
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Predictability and performance of different non-linear mixed-effects models for HbA1c in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitusWellhagen, Gustaf January 2014 (has links)
To accurately predict the outcome of a late phase study, pharmacometric models can help in drug development. Making informed decision on which models to use will also facilitate drug development. This can depend on the mechanism of action for the drug as well as stability and runtime factors. This is an investigation of four published semi-mechanistic pharmacometric models to predict glycosylated red blood cells (HbA1c) in a late phase study of an anti-diabetic drug together with an assessment of their stability and power to detect drug effects. Mean plasma glucose (MPG), fasting plasma glucose (FPG) or FPG and fasting serum insulin (FSI) are used together with HbA1c as drivers for change in the models. We find that less complex models, with fewer differential equations, are quicker to run and more stable, and that MPG alone is superior to FPG or FPG and FSI to detect a drug effect. The findings are useful for drug development in the anti-diabetic area, and show that a less mechanistic model performs well under these conditions.
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Intentionality as MethodologyHochstein, Eric 05 December 2011 (has links)
In this dissertation, I examine the role that intentional descriptions play in our scientific study of the mind. Behavioural scientists often use intentional language in their characterization of cognitive systems, making reference to “beliefs”, “representations”, or “states of information”. What is the scientific value gained from employing such intentional terminology?
I begin the dissertation by contrasting intentional descriptions with mechanistic descriptions, as these are the descriptions most commonly used to provide explanations in the behavioural sciences. I then examine the way that intentional descriptions are employed in various scientific contexts. I conclude that while mechanistic descriptions characterize the underlying structure of systems, intentional descriptions allow us to generate predictions of systems while remaining agnostic as to their mechanistic underpinnings.
Having established this, I then argue that intentional descriptions share much in common with statistical models in the way they characterize systems. Given these similarities, I theorize that intentional descriptions are employed within scientific practice as a particular type of phenomenological model. Phenomenological models are used to study, characterize, and predict the phenomena produced by mechanistic systems without describing their underlying structure. I demonstrate why such models are integral to our scientific discovery, and understanding, of the mechanisms that make up the brain.
With my account on the table, I then look back at previous accounts of intentional language that philosophers have offered in the past. I highlight insights that each brought to our understanding of intentional language, and point out where each ultimately goes astray.
I conclude the dissertation by examining the ontological implications of my theory. I demonstrate that my account is compatible with versions of both realism, and anti-realism, regarding the existence of intentional states. Read more
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Asymmetric transfer hydrogenation of ketones : Catalyst development and mechanistic investigationAhlford, Katrin January 2011 (has links)
The development of ligands derived from natural amino acids for asymmetric transfer hydrogenation (ATH) of prochiral ketones is described herein. In the first part, reductions performed in alcoholic media are examined, where it is found that amino acid-derived hydroxamic acids and thioamides, respectively, are simple and versatile ligands that in combination with [RhCp*Cl2]2 efficiently catalyze this particular transformation. Selectivities up to 97% ee of the corresponding secondary alcohols are obtained, and it is furthermore observed that the two different ligand classes, albeit based on the same amino acid scaffold, give rise to products of opposite configuration. The highly interesting enantioswitchable nature of the two abovementioned catalysts is studied in detail by mechanistic investigations. A structure/activity correlation analysis is performed, which reveals that the diverse behavior of the catalysts arise from different interactions between the ligands and the metal. Kinetic studies furthermore stress the catalyst divergence, since a difference in the rate determining step is established from initial rate measurements. In addition, rate constants are determined for each step of the overall reduction process. In the last part, catalyst development for ATH executed in water is discussed. The applicability of hydroxamic acid ligands is further extended, and catalysts based on these compounds are found to be efficient and compatible with aqueous conditions. The structurally even simpler amino acid amide is also evaluated as a ligand, and selectivities up to 90% ee are obtained in the reduction of a number of aryl alkyl ketones. The very challenging reduction of dialkyl ketones is moreover examined in the Rh-catalyzed aqueous ATH, where a modified surfactant-resembling sulfonylated diamine is used as ligand, and the reaction is carried out in the presence of SDS-micelles. A positive effect is to some extent found on the catalyst performance upon addition of phase-transfer components, especially regarding the catalytic activity in the reduction of more hydrophobic substrates. / At the time of the doctoral defense, the following paper was unpublished and had a status as follows: Paper 4: In press. Read more
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Efeitos da adição de cales na vida de fadiga de concretos asfálticos com agregados de basalto e ligantes convencional e modificado / Effects of lime addition in asphalt concrete fatigue life with basalt aggregate and conventional and modified bindersGranich, Alex Roberto January 2015 (has links)
O crescente aumento do tráfego rodoviário comercial demanda o desenvolvimento de novas tecnologias que proporcione pavimentos de elevado desempenho e durabilidade. Nesse contexto, desde 2006 se estuda, no laboratório de pavimentação da UFRGS, melhorias em propriedades de concretos asfálticos devidas à incorporação de cal. Este estudo complementa o estudo relatado por Bock (2012) que evidenciou o aumento do módulo de resiliência, da resistência à tração, das resistências às deformações permanentes e ao dano por umidade induzida, nesta dissertação são apresentados e analisados os resultados de ensaios de fadiga. Foram realizados no modo tensão controlada, em corpos-de-prova cilíndricos de seis misturas constituídas por agregado de basalto, ligante convencional (CAP 50/70) ou polimerizado (CAP E 60/85), com e sem adição de cales (calcítica ou dolomítica). Os resultados foram modelados em função da tensão de tração, da diferença de tensões e, principalmente, da deformação específica no início do ensaio. Empregaram-se os modelos de fadiga obtidos no estudo, e através de curvas, constatou-se que: nos concretos asfálticos elaborados com ligante convencional, a adição de 1% de cal calcítica aumentou-se a vida de fadiga cerca de 4,5 vezes no caso de revestimentos delgados (5 e 10 cm) e em 2,9 vezes e 1,9 vezes no caso de revestimentos mais espessos (15 e 20 cm, respectivamente). A adição de cal dolomítica a misturas com CAP 50/70 afetou a vida de fadiga de forma ainda mais notável, com aumentos que variaram de 42 vezes para revestimentos com 5 cm a 2,7 vezes para revestimentos com 20 cm. Quando são analisados o efeito da adição de cales em misturas em ligante polimerizado constatou-se comportamento homogêneo, com aumento de vida de fadiga entre 31 (revestimento de 5 cm) e 35 vezes (revestimento de 20 cm), quando a cal adicionada é calcítica, e com ligeira redução (10%) na vida de fadiga quando se adicionou cal dolomítica. Como esperado, os concretos asfálticos com ligante modificado apresentaram vida de fadiga maiores, sendo o efeito do ligante ainda maior quando se acrescentou cal calcítica. Os resultados sugerem que há interação química entre o tipo de ligante e o tipo de cal. Globalmente, os resultados da pesquisa mostraram que a incorporação da cal calcítica sempre aumentou a vida de fadiga dos concretos asfálticos, e que quando se empregou ligante convencional (CAP 50/70) também podem-se obter aumentos expressivos com cal dolomítica. Aliados aos benefícios na resistência a deformação permanente, e ao dano por umidade induzida já conhecidos para as misturas estudadas, os resultados apresentados nesta dissertação permitem concluir que a incorporação de cal permite obter concretos asfálticos de elevados desempenho e durabilidade. / Increasing commercial road traffic demands the development of new technologies to provide higher performance and durable pavements. In this context, since 2006 it‟s been studied, in the pavements laboratory of UFRGS, improvements in asphalt concrete properties due to the lime incorporation. Following previous study reported by Bock (2012) which showed an increase of resilient modulus, tensile strength, the resistance to permanent deformation and damage induced by moisture, in this dissertation is presented and analyzed the results of fatigue tests. They were performed in controlled stress mode, in cylindrical specimens, consisting of six asphalt mixtures with basalt aggregate, conventional binder (CAP 50/70) or modified binder (CAP E 60/85) with and without addition of lime (calcitic or dolomitic). The results were modeled as a function of tensile stress, the stress difference, and especially the specific strain at baseline. Employing the fatigue models obtained in the study through curves it was found that: on the asphaltic concrete made with the conventional binder, the addition of 1% of calcitic lime increased fatigue life about 4.5 times in the case of thin asphalt layer (5 and 10 cm) and 2.9 times and 1.9 times in the case of thicker asphalt layer (15 and 20 cm, respectively). The addition of dolomitic lime mixtures with CAP 50/70 affect the fatigue life in a even more remarkable way with an increase ranging from 42 times to asphalt concrete with 5 cm to 2.7 times to 20 cm. When are examined the effect of adding lime in polymerized binder mixtures, it was found that the behavior was homogeneous, with increased fatigue life between 31 (5 cm asphalt mixture) and 35 times (20 cm asphalt mixture) when the added lime is calcitic, and with slight decrease (10%) in fatigue life when dolomitic lime was added. As expected, the modified binder asphalt concrete presented greater fatigue life, and the effect was further identified when calcitic lime was added. The results suggest that there is a chemical interaction between the type of binder and the type of lime. Overall, the research results showed that the incorporation of calcitic lime always increased the fatigue life of asphalt concrete, which was used when the conventional binder (CAP 50/70) may also obtain significant increases with dolomitic lime. In addition to the benefits in resistance to permanent deformation, and induced by moisture damage already expected for the mixtures studied, the results presented in this thesis can be concluded that the incorporation of lime allows to obtain asphalt concrete with high-performance and durability. Read more
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Modélisation à pas de temps horaire des transferts de tritium au sein d'un écosystème prairial / Hourly modelisation of tritium transfers in a grassland ecosystemRenard, Hugo 21 December 2017 (has links)
Lors des rejets accidentels ou chroniques des installations nucléaires vers l'environnement, il est important de prédire le devenir des radionucléides dans l'environnement, en particulier à l'échelle de la prairie qui constitue un des maillons de la chaîne alimentaire. L'IRSN et EDF développent une plateforme de simulation pour le transfert de radionucléides dans l'environnement appelé SYMBIOSE, afin d'estimer la dose reçue par les humains. Le tritium est un exemple d'un radionucléide rejeté dans l'environnement par les installations nucléaires, dont le comportement est particulièrement difficile à prédire en raison de sa grande mobilité et de son affinité biologique selon la forme chimique considérée. Le modèle TOCATTA-khi, mis en œuvre dans la plateforme SYMBIOSE, s’intéresse entre autres aux transferts de tritium au sein d’un écosystème prairial. L'objectif principal de la thèse est d'améliorer et d'évaluer le modèle existant de TOCATTA-khi à partir d'expériences réalisées in situ à la plateforme technique IRSN La Hague et en laboratoire, en étudiant et quantifiant les transferts de tritium au sein d'un écosystème prairial, ainsi que les incertitudes rémanentes associées. / In the context of accidental or chronic releases from nuclear installations to the environment, it is important to predict the future of radionuclides, particularly at the grassland scale, the first link in the human food chain. The IRSN and EDF are developing a simulation platform for the transfer of radionuclides in the environment, called SYMBIOSE, in order to estimate the dose received by humans. Tritium is an example of a radionuclide released into the environment by nuclear installations, whose behavior is particularly critical to predict because of its high mobility and biological affinity depending on the chemical form considered. The TOCATTA-khi model, implemented in the SYMBIOSE platform, is dedicated, among other things, to the transfer of tritium within a grassland ecosystem. The main objective of this thesis is to improve and evaluate the existing TOCATTA-khi model from experiments carried out in situ at the technical platform IRSN La Hague and in laboratory, by studying and quantifying the transfers of tritium within a grassland ecosystem, as well as the associated residual uncertainties. Read more
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Review on Mechanistic Effect Models Used in Ecological Risk Assessment of Pesticides According to the European Food Safety Authority GuidanceWang, Qin January 2018 (has links)
In ecological risk assessment, mechanistic effect models (MEMs) are thought to overcome the limitation of standard laboratory single species test by accurately extrapolating the models to population-level. This review introduces the basic theory of MEMs-dynamic energy budget theory which can connect with toxicokinetic/ toxicodynamic models to describe the interaction of toxicants and organisms. This review summarizes some typical MEMs which simulate different scenarios, pesticides and species, and compared their modelling performance according to the guidance on good effect models of European Food Safety Authority, in order to judge if it is accounting for all modelling steps. In addition, a summary of the linkage of MEMs in pesticides ecological risk assessment have been discussed, especially evaluating the linkage results of ‘MODELINK’ workshop. However, there is no genuine application of MEMs in pesticides ecological risk assessment in real world today, because there is no validated model built with acceptable predictive power to motivate the ecological assessors or shareholders to use effect models confidently. Therefore, there is still a long way to develop an effect model which is valid enough and has strong prediction power. Read more
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Modeling the dynamics of herbage production and intake in complex grasslandsWallau, Marcelo Osório January 2017 (has links)
Studies in grassland management and ecology have always been challenging because of the large amount and great variation of the entities representing and affecting the system. Despite that, we were able to progress significantly in range experimentation in the Campos, in Southern Brazil. Along past thirty years, a large amount of data and information was generated, from vegetation production to components of intake. In an attempt to integrate the information available, seeking for a deeper understanding of the functioning of native grasslands, we propose adapting a mechanistic vegetation model, aggregated of a spatialized grazing component to create PampaGraze. This model was developed for temperate perennial grasslands, and was adapted and tested for subtropical, C4-dominated grasslands of the Campos of Southern Brazil (Chapter III). Despite the limited capacity of field data for validating, the model was able to relatively well simulate the trends in vegetation production along the year and seasons, while overpredicting herbage production during peak growing season. The structure of the model as it is did not allow for an accurate simulation slow-growing, tussock-forming species. Further, we developed and integrated a grazing model, based on a hybrid approach of the classical mechanistic equations of the prey model (STEPHENS & KREBS, 1986), and experimental data on foraging behaviour measured on native grasslands (Chapter IV). The model was very successful on predicting the components of intake, and responded well to variation of components in relation to changes in vegetation and to selectivity pressures, compared to available literature. Regardless of the limitations on the vegetation model, we were able to further explore the relationships of components of intake, identifying possible major limitations for herbage consumption, thus animal performance, in native grasslands. A significant progress was achieved with this thesis, but still long ways to go with this project. A list of suggestions for further developments can be found in Chapter V. We identified the emergent needs for field studies on parameters and morphogenesis, for improving predictions of the vegetation model, as well as structural points of the model that could be addressed for better representation of natural phenomena. This thesis is the first step towards a more detailed and reliable tool for studying and predicting the behaviour of vegetation dynamics and animal production in sub-tropical grasslands. This can allow us to explore relationships and scenarios beyond our experimental capacity, and investigate the connectivity of the system, as well as each mechanism separately. The stage has been set, awaiting further developments. Read more
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