In most randomised controlled trials (RCTs), a large number of patients need to be followed over many years, for the clinical benefit of the drug to be accurately quantified (1). Using an early proxy, or a surrogate endpoint, in place of the direct endpoint of overall survival (OS) could theoretically shorten the duration of RCTs and minimise the exposure of patients to ineffective or toxic treatments (2, 3). This thesis examined the relationship between surrogate endpoints and OS in metastatic colorectal cancer (CRC), advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) and metastatic breast cancer (MBC). A review of the literature identified 144 RCTs in metastatic CRC, 189 in advanced NSCLC and 133 in MBC. The publications were generally of poor quality with incomplete reporting on many key variables, making comparisons between studies difficult. The introduction of the CONSORT statement was associated with improvements in the quality of reporting. For CRC (337 arms), NSCLC (429 arms) and MBC (290 arms) there were strong relationships between OS and progression free survival (PFS), time to progression (TTP), disease control rate (DCR), response rate (RR) and partial response (PR). Correlation was also demonstrated between OS and complete response (CR) in CRC and duration of response (DOR) in MBC. However, while strong relationships were found, the proportion of variance explained by the models was small. Prediction bands constructed to determine the surrogate threshold effect size indicated that large improvements in the surrogate endpoints were needed to predict overall survival gains. PFS and TTP showed the most promise as surrogates. The gain in PFS and TTP required to predict a significant gain in overall survival was between 1.2 and 7.0 months and 1.8 and 7.7 months respectively, depending on trial size and tumour type. DCR was a better potential predictor of OS than RR. The results of this study could be used to design future clinical trials with particular reference to the selection of surrogate endpoint and trial size.

In most randomised controlled trials (RCTs), a large number of patients need to be followed over many years, for the clinical benefit of the drug to be accurately quantified (1). Using an early proxy, or a surrogate endpoint, in place of the direct endpoint of overall survival (OS) could theoretically shorten the duration of RCTs and minimise the exposure of patients to ineffective or toxic treatments (2, 3). This thesis examined the relationship between surrogate endpoints and OS in metastatic colorectal cancer (CRC), advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) and metastatic breast cancer (MBC). A review of the literature identified 144 RCTs in metastatic CRC, 189 in advanced NSCLC and 133 in MBC. The publications were generally of poor quality with incomplete reporting on many key variables, making comparisons between studies difficult. The introduction of the CONSORT statement was associated with improvements in the quality of reporting. For CRC (337 arms), NSCLC (429 arms) and MBC (290 arms) there were strong relationships between OS and progression free survival (PFS), time to progression (TTP), disease control rate (DCR), response rate (RR) and partial response (PR). Correlation was also demonstrated between OS and complete response (CR) in CRC and duration of response (DOR) in MBC. However, while strong relationships were found, the proportion of variance explained by the models was small. Prediction bands constructed to determine the surrogate threshold effect size indicated that large improvements in the surrogate endpoints were needed to predict overall survival gains. PFS and TTP showed the most promise as surrogates. The gain in PFS and TTP required to predict a significant gain in overall survival was between 1.2 and 7.0 months and 1.8 and 7.7 months respectively, depending on trial size and tumour type. DCR was a better potential predictor of OS than RR. The results of this study could be used to design future clinical trials with particular reference to the selection of surrogate endpoint and trial size.

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