This thesis is concerned with inequality, redistribution and taxation, in particular the taxation of labour income and the distribution of wealth. Most of the analysis is focused on Sweden. The thesis consists of four self-contained essays. Essay 1: “Analyzing tax reforms using the Swedish Labour Income Microsimulation Model”. Labour income taxation is a central policy topic because labour income makes up the majority of national income and most taxes are in the end taxes on labour. In order to quantify how behavioural responses of labour income earners affect tax revenue, the Swedish Labour Income Microsimulation Model (SLIMM) is constructed and used to evaluate tax reforms. Elasticities are calibrated to match midpoints of estimates found in the quasiexperimental literature. The simulations indicate that the earned income tax credit has increased employment by 128,000 and has a degree of self-financing of 21 percent. Almost half of the revenue increase from higher municipal tax rates would disappear due to behavioural responses. Tax cuts for the richest fifth of working Swedes are completely self-financing. Essay 2: “The Laffer curve for high incomes”. An expression for the Laffer curve for high incomes is derived, assuming a constant Pareto parameter and elasticity of taxable income. Microsimulations using Swedish population data show that the simulated curve matches the theoretically derived Laffer curve well, suggesting that the analytical expression is not too much of a simplification. A country-level dataset of top effective marginal tax rates and Pareto parameters is assembled. This is used to draw Laffer curves for 27 OECD countries. Revenue-maximizing tax rates and degrees of self-financing for a small tax cut are also computed. The results indicate that degrees of self-financing range between 28 and 195 percent. Five countries have higher tax rates than the peak of the Laffer curve. Essay 3: “Political preferences for redistribution in Sweden” (with Spencer Bastani). We examine preferences for redistribution inherent in Swedish tax policy 1971–2012 using the inverse optimal tax approach. The income distribution is carefully characterized with the help of administrative register data and we employ behavioral elasticities reflecting the perceived distortionary effects of taxation. The revealed social welfare weights are high for non-workers, small for low-income earners, and hump-shaped around the median. At the top, they are always negative, especially so during the high-tax years of the 1970s and ’80s. The weights on non-workers increased sharply in the 1970s, fell drastically in the late ’80s and early ’90s, and have since then increased. Essay 4: “Wealth inequality in Sweden: What can we learn from capitalized income data?” (with Daniel Waldenström). This paper presents new estimates of wealth inequality in Sweden during 2000–2012, linking wealth register data up to 2007 and individually capitalized wealth based on income and property tax registers for the period thereafter when a repeal of the wealth tax stopped the collection of individual wealth statistics. We find that wealth inequality increased after 2007 and that more unequal bank holdings and housing appear to be important drivers. We also evaluate the performance of the capitalization method by contrasting its estimates and their dispersion with observed stocks in register data up to 2007. The goodness-of-fit varies tremendously across assets and we conclude that although capitalized wealth estimates may well approximate overall inequality levels and trends, they are highly sensitive to assumptions and the quality of the underlying data sources.

Philosophiae Doctor - PhD / The study assessed the extent of child poverty in South Africa using five different policy scenarios, and modelled the impact on poverty and inequalities of people living in households with children using the Foster-Greer-Thorbecke (FGT) index of poverty measurement, including poverty rate P0, (headcount index ratio), poverty gap index P1, (the depth of poverty), and the severity of poverty P2 (squared poverty gap index). Societal welfare inequalities have been measured using the Gini co-efficient. In general, the scenario analysis was based on the 2007 population baseline and 2008 government policy rules. The results of the study clearly indicate that there is a positive correlation between cash transfer (Child Support Grant) and a reduction in poverty and the inequalities of people living in households with children in South Africa. An increase in the Child Support Grant amount and the number of child beneficiaries, in modelling, produced a positive effect in addressing increasing child poverty and vulnerability. In addition, the research process identified four interrelated gaps that hinder the successful implementation of the social welfare policies underlying the Child Support Grant to reduce the poverty and inequality profile of people living in households with children in South Africa. First, inadequate understanding of the constitutional rights of the child exists. Second, failure to use proven best practice of institutional arrangements and implementation modalities was identified. Third, lack of political will for the championship of a universal basic income grant (UBIG) is present. Fourth, insufficient research, monitoring and evaluation (M&E) and dissemination of best practices is done. Within the context of the above mentioned analysis, the study finally brings into focus general observations gained from the investigation and provides recommendations to policy makers and other stakeholders. / South Africa

Many health geography studies, including the Ottawa Neighbourhood Study (ONS), have faced significant challenges uncovering local variation in patterns of community health in rural areas. This is due to the fact that sparsely populated rural areas make it difficult to define neighbourhoods that are representative of the social and resource utilization patterns of the individuals therein. Moreover, rural areas yield small samples from population-based regional health surveys and this leads to insufficient sample sizes for reliable estimation of health determinants and outcomes. In response to this issue this thesis combines geographical and statistical techniques which allow for the simulation of health variables within small areas and populations within rural Ottawa. This methodological approach combines the techniques of dasymetric mapping and statistical micro-simulation in an innovative way, which will allow health geography researchers to explore health determinants and health outcomes at small spatial scales in rural areas. Dasymetric mapping is used to generate a statistical population surface over Ottawa and then estimate socio-economic (SES) variables within small neighbourhood units within rural Ottawa. The estimated SES variables are then used as correlate variables to simulate health determinant and health outcome variables form the Canadian Community Health Survey (CCHS) using statistical micro-simulation. Through this methodology, simulations of specific health determinants and outcome can be investigated at small spatial scales within rural areas. Dasymetric mapping provided neighbourhood-level population estimates that were used to re-weight as set of SES variables that were correlates with those in the Canadian Community Health Survey (CCHS). These neighbourhood-level correlates allowed microsimulation and consequent spatial exploration of prevalence for smoking, binge drinking, obesity, self-rated mental health, and the presence of two or more chronic conditions. The methodology outlined in this paper, provides and innovative way of exploring health determinants and health outcomes in neighbourhoods for which population and health statistics are not traditionally collected at levels that would allow traditional statistical analyses of prevalence.

According to the US Department of Transportation, around 20 people die on a daily basis in a signalized intersection, with most of these resulting from angle or head-on collisions. The US-DoT’s Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) has identified modern roundabout intersections to be substantially safer than signalized intersections, due in part to the reduction in conflict points from 32 in a traditional signalized intersection to 8 in a modern roundabout. Despite the increased adoption of modern roundabouts across the US, there are a number of specific design elements for which the direct impact they have on operational and safety related performance of the roundabout remains unknown. To be specific, there is currently no conclusive research on the direct effects related to the introduction of a reverse curve (S-curve) on the approach to a roundabout. Moreover, what are the impacts of S-curves of varying geometries on the approach to a roundabout? This research employed a series of microsimulation-based analyses to investigate the speed related impacts related to the introduction to S-curves on the entry to a roundabout. An existing roundabout, in Amherst, MA, USA was used as a case study for this experiment. The data at each approach of the roundabout was collected by a static camera strategically placed to attain both the pedestrian and vehicle count during peak traffic hours. The data was manually reviewed to determine the upstream and downstream vehicle counts. The dimensions and angles of the existing roundabout were measured from Google earth and the image was extracted to AutoCaD Civil 3D. Since the objective is to check whether S-curves near an approach have a significant impact in speed, the deflection angle of the roundabout was not altered. The turning radius and angle at the approach was cross verified by measuring it on site. The existing roundabout was considered as the base model. The four approaches of the roundabout have different entry angles and radii. The revised models were drafted by strategically placing the S-curve at each approach and by steadily increasing their deflection angle and approach radius. The base and revised models cases were initially modelled, after which the conventional linear approach was modified to an S-curve and evaluated. Field data from the locations were to and calibrate microsimulation models on AIMSUN. The resulting trajectory data was analyzed for both the base case as well as three levels of experimental S-curves (ranging from 30 to 60 degrees) on each roundabout approach (16 total). The results provide evidence to suggest that a significant reduction in speed can be realized with a minimal amount of the reverse curvature on the roundabout approach. The trajectory output files were then imported into the Surrogate Safety Assessment Model (SSAM) to determine the number and type of conflicts experienced at each approach under each scenario evaluated in AIMSUN.

The diploma thesis deals with modeling and subsequent economic assessment of the traffic situation of a particular intersection, applying the rule of right turn on red light signal. The thesis is divided into a theoretical part, which describes the rule, the general procedure of creating transport microsimulation and the methodology of the evaluation of economic efficiency according to ŘSD. In practical part the interest area is described and microsimulation of existing and design variants was created in Aimsun. The Aimsun outputs are further compared and economically evaluated.

The diploma thesis deals with the modeling of traffic in the Mendel Square according to the documents of the Office of the Brno Architect. The modeling process takes place in software Aimsun. The result of this work is to compare the data with the provided results according to the standard, to determine the resulting output values from the software and to identify the problem areas affecting individual transport and urban public transport.

Tato disertační práce je zaměřena na vysokorychlostní simulace dopravy a jejich přesnou kalibraci pomocí různých typů dopravních dat. Práce se po úvodním popisu motivace pro samotný výzkum nejdříve věnuje současnému stavu poznání, a dále rozdělení simulátorů dopravy, zejména podle typu dat, se kterými se v nich pracuje. Úpravou existujícího řešení je navržen vlastní mikrosimulační model, který je založen na principu celulárního automatu. S tímto novým modelem je pak experimentováno, zpočátku z pohledu rychlosti simulace a další rozšiřitelnosti. Je navržena a popsána technika, kterou je možné navržený model významně akcelerovat a následně provádět simulace rychleji než v reálném čase i pro rozsáhlá území. Práce dále přistupuje k samotné kalibraci modelu, ke které byl využit evoluční přístup. Je představena metoda pro efektivní způsob optimalizace parametrů mikrosimulačního modelu, která nevyžaduje citlivostní analýzu a je schopná nalézt jinak obtížně nastavitelné parametry modelu. Kvalita získaných optimalizovaných modelů byla analyzována jak pomocí makroskopických, tak i mikroskopických dopravních dat, a to i s ohledem na jejich reálné vlastnosti, tj. chybějící vzorky. Dále jsou zhodnoceny výkonnostní a jiné kvalitativní parametry vlastního přístupu v porovnání s existujícími řešeními, přičemž bylo dosaženo významného zlepšení. Nakonec jsou představeny nástroje, které v rámci řešení vznikly. Na závěr je uvedeno další zaměření výzkumu, a to zejména s ohledem na využití výsledků práce v praxi.

This thesis describes the concept of transport solution with the help of microsimulation. Using intensities obtained from the landscape is a simulation of the current status and new proposals. They are compared using a detention time. For the winning option will be implemented spatial study.

The master’s thesis deals with a solution of a complicated traffic situation on the Přímá – Nábřeží intersection in Zlin. The first part of the thesis focuses on the diagnostic of the current state of the junction. In the second part, the author compares possible solutions, traffic light control is chosen as the best. Traffic light plans are designed and coordinated with a nearby traffic light controlled intersection Tomáše Bati – Přímá. It the last part, the solution is verified and represented by a microsimulation.

The time to treatment plays a major factor in recovery for stroke patients, and simulation techniques can be valuable tools for testing healthcare policies and improving the situation for stroke patients. However, simulation requires individual-level data about stroke patients which cannot be acquired due to patient’s privacy rules. This thesis presents a hybrid simulation model for generating a synthetic population of stroke patients by combining Agent-based and microsimulation modeling. Subsequently, Agent-based simulation is used to estimate the locations where strokes happen. The simulation model is built by conducting the Design Science research method, where the simulation model is built by following a set of steps including data preparation, conceptual model formulation, implementation, and finally running the simulation model. The generated synthetic population size is based on the number of stroke events in a year from a Poisson Point Process and consists of stroke patients along with essential attributes such as age, stroke status, home location, and current location. The simulation output shows that nearly all patients had their stroke while being home, where the traveling factor is insignificant to the stroke locations based on the travel survey data used in this thesis and the assumption that all patients return home at midnight.