This thesis concerns the modelling of individuals’ health over the life course, within the framework set by the now substantial international literature on the relationship between socioeconomic status and health. The focus is on people with long term illnesses and related disabilities, on inequalities in health by socioeconomic status (SES) and on the impact of health on employment.¶ The main tool of analysis is a dynamic microsimulation model of the Australian population which tracks the demographic, socioeconomic and financial characteristics of individuals and their families over the life course. Its original form, developed at the National Centre for Socioeconomic Modelling, University of Canberra, is based on a one per cent representative sample of the Australian population (around 150,000 individuals), with a series of life course events simulated for individuals and their families up to 2050 - such as births, deaths, migration, taxes, education, labour force participation, earned income, wealth accumulation and government transfers. The model is written in the C programming language and was initially used on a UNIX system. The dramatic increases in the speed and memory size of PCs over the past five years has led to a PC version now being available.¶ Despite their relatively short existence and long development phases, dynamic microsimulation models are now used in many developed countries – for example, the USA, UK, Canada, France, Sweden, Norway and Italy. In recognition of their ability to analyse distributional and financial issues in considerably greater depth than what is possible with traditional methods, their use by government for policy analysis is rapidly increasing.¶ In this thesis two new modules were added to the original Australian dynamic microsimulation model – namely: a Health_SES module and a Health State Transitions module. The former makes the study of health inequalities across socioeconomic groups possible. The latter provides a link between health status and the ability of individuals to carry out every day activities as the severity of their ill-health increases with age. A major advantage of adding these new modules to an existing main model is that it allows much more comprehensive studies over the life courses of individuals than the alternative would allow – that is the building of two stand-alone models developed exclusively for ‘health-SES’ and ‘health state transition’ types of applications.¶ The main data sources used to construct the two new modules were an extract from the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare’s Mortality database covering the 1995-97 period, and the Australian Bureau of Statistic’s 1998 survey of Disability, Ageing and Carers. The analysis of the mortality data was handled using EXCEL, and that of the much larger Disability survey unit record dataset - over 40,000 individuals and 100s of variables – using the SAS programming language.¶ While most of the methodologies used in constructing the new modules are in line with what became the norm for dynamic microsimulation model development, the thesis contains several innovations. The main ones are: a quantitative assessment of the suitability of different types of SES indicators for studies of health inequalities; the modelling of the progression of people’s health from illness-free status to mild and severe disability; the development of a methodology for estimating health state transition probabilities from cross-sectional data (in the absence of longitudinal data); and the linking of health status to individual’s ability to stay in the labour force.¶ As with most models, there are a number of limitations. These are discussed in the thesis, together with areas of possible future improvements.¶ The thesis also presents two novel and topical – though at this stage illustrative – applications of the enhanced dynamic microsimulation model. The first simulates the impact of a narrowing in health inequalities in Australia as health is lifted nationally to the level currently enjoyed by the most affluent 20% of the population. The findings are that, if such a policy change were implemented, close to half a million fewer Australians would be disabled, around 180,000 life years would be saved, health care costs would be around A$1 billion lower per year and the government could save close to A$700 million on the Disability Support Pension.¶ The second application quantifies the likely impacts of longer working lives in future, which may arise from changes such as: more favourable labour market conditions; government incentives to remain in the labour force longer (eg the lifting of the pension age); and general improvements in health. This application estimates the probability that Australians aged 65-70 would work more than 15 hours per week, had such changes eventuated. The decision to retire is modelled as a function of each individual’s own health, socioeconomic status, age, sex and family composition. The impacts are simulated in a world in which current patterns of health by age, sex and SES remain unchanged over time – the Base case; and a world replicating the narrower health inequalities scenario of the first application. Under the Base case an additional 450,000 persons aged 65-70 years were estimated to remain in the workforce - with the related earnings totalling up to $20 billion in 1998 ($35 billion in 2018) and savings by government on the age pension of around $2 billion ($4 billion in 2018). Under the narrower health inequalities scenario the numbers working, their earnings and the related savings on the age pension were estimated to be around 7% higher. Much of the original research carried out for this thesis has appeared, or is yet to appear, in refereed publications.¶

La preocupación en la actualidad del transporte público nos obliga a fomentar la implementación de medios de transporte sostenibles y saludables. Por este motivo, se propone con esta investigación localizar adecuadamente las estaciones de bicicletas y de esta forma reducir los tiempos de viaje en bicicleta en el distrito de San Borja. En el primer capítulo formularemos la realidad problemática, formulación del problema de transporte y algunos antecedentes de estudios similares en diferentes países con resultados positivos. También desarrollaremos los objetivos generales, objetivos específicos y las limitaciones de la investigación. En el segundo capítulo se describirá el marco teórico de la metodología para la localización óptima de estaciones de bicicletas, los modelos de microsimulación y la propuesta de mejora. Asimismo, definiremos los tipos de modelo de tránsito, algunas consideraciones que serán necesarias para realizar los análisis de los resultados que se obtengan. En el tercer capítulo describiremos la metodología que se utiliza desde la recolección de datos para la metodología de máxima cobertura y el modelo de microsimulación debidamente calibrado y validado. También, se detallará la aplicación de la metodología de máxima cobertura (ArcGIS) y la construcción del modelo de simulación en el software VISSIM. En el cuarto capítulo se presentan el análisis de las estaciones utilizando el modelo de máxima cobertura, localización de las estaciones optimas, la reducción de viajes del estado actual y el de los escenarios propuestos y por último los resultados de la comparación. En el último capítulo se encontrarán las conclusiones y recomendaciones a las que se llegaron respondiendo así el objetivo general de la presente tesis. / The current public transport concern forces us to encourage the implementation of sustainable and healthy means of transport. For this reason, it is proposed with this research to properly locate the bicycle stations and thus reduce the travel times by bicycle in the district of San Borja. In the first chapter we will formulate the problematic reality, formulation of the transport problem and some background of similar studies in different countries with positive results. We will also develop the general objectives, specific objectives and limitations of the investigation. In the second chapter, the theoretical framework of the methodology for the optimal location of bicycle stations, microsimulation models and the proposal for improvement will be described. Likewise, we will define the types of traffic model, some considerations that will be necessary to perform the analysis of the results obtained. In the third chapter we will describe the methodology used since the data collection for the maximum coverage methodology and the microsimulation model duly calibrated and validated. Also, the application of the maximum coverage methodology (ArcGIS) and the construction of the simulation model in the VISSIM software will be detailed. In the fourth chapter the analysis of the stations is presented using the maximum coverage model, location of the optimal stations, the reduction of trips of the current state and that of the proposed scenarios and finally the results of the comparison. In the last chapter you will find the conclusions and recommendations that were reached in response to the general objective of this thesis. / Tesis

En la presente tesis se realizará el estudio de microsimulación de tráfico de la actual intersección de las avenidas Santa Rosa y Morales Duárez en donde se proyecta construir el nuevo acceso al Aeropuerto Internacional Jorge Chávez con la finalidad de estudiar el comportamiento vehicular de la intersección con una proyección al año 2032 y tomando en cuenta que la solución planteada en este proyecto es una rotonda y un paso a desnivel. En el Capítulo 1 de este informe presenta la formulación del problema los objetivos y el planteamiento de la hipótesis para validar la investigación. En el Capítulo 2 se encuentra todo lo referido al marco teórico requerido para el desarrollo de esta investigación, específicamente todo lo relacionado a la microsimulacion con software Vissim. Luego, en el Capítulo 3 se plantea la metodología para llevar a cabo la investigación en donde se establecen los pasos a seguir para lograr los objetivos planteados, desde la obtención de la información de campo hasta el modelamiento microscópico de intersección estudiada y posterior evaluación con los parámetros de eficiencia. El Capítulo 4 expone los resultados obtenidos de la microsimulacion analizando el comportamiento operacional de los vehículos con la propuesta del ovalo y el paso a desnivel. Finalmente, respecto a los resultados se plantea una propuesta de mejora y se presentan las conclusiones y recomendaciones. / This thesis study the traffic microsimulation of the current intersection of Santa Rosa and Morales Duárez avenues, where it is planned to build the new access to Jorge Chávez International Airport, in order to analize his vehicular behavior with projections of vehicle flow to 2032 taking on that there will build a roundabout and overpass. Chapter 1 of this report presents the formulation of the problem, the objectives and the approach of the hypothesis to validate the investigation. Chapter 2 contains everything related to the theoretical framework required for the development of this research, specifically everything related to microsimulation with Vissim software. Then, in Chapter 3, the methodology to carry out the research will be presented and the steps of the process to be followed to achieve the stated objectives are established, from obtaining field information from the field to the microscopic modeling of the intersection studied and subsequent evaluation with efficiency parameters. Chapter 4 presents the results obtained from the microsimulation with respect to the information entered. Finally, regarding the results, a proposal for improvement is presented and the conclusions and recommendations are presented. / Tesis

La presente tesis propone una solución a la congestión vehicular a través de una microsimulación con el software Vissim v9 de la rotonda Las Américas ubicada frente al Aeropuerto Internacional Jorge Chávez. La microsimulación se realizó mediante los parámetros de Wiedemann, los cuales fueron utilizados en la calibración y validación del modelo haciéndolo lo más cercano a la realidad considerando la geometría del área de estudio y la Psicología de los conductores. En el primer capítulo se encontrará el problema de la congestión vehicular en Perú y Lima, algunos antecedentes de estudios similares, la hipótesis y los objetivos de la investigación. En el segundo capítulo se desarrolló el marco teórico que respalda los criterios con los que se ha desarrollado tanto el modelo de microsimulación como la propuesta de mejora. Aquí podremos encontrar la definición de los diferentes tipos de modelos, los fundamentos de la microsimulación (modelo de Wiedemann) y se explica el análisis que ejecuta el software Vissim v9. El tercer capítulo describe la metodología que se utiliza desde la recolección de datos de campo hasta el modelo de microsimulación debidamente calibrado y validado. En el cuarto capítulo se presentan los resultados de la microsimulación, los cuales nos indican el nivel de servicio actual de la rotonda es “F” y se logró mejorar hasta uno “D”, según la HCM (2010). En el último capítulo se encontrarán las conclusiones y recomendaciones a las que se llegaron respondiendo así el objetivo general de la presente tesis. / This thesis proposes a solution to vehicular congestion through microsimulation with the Vissim v9 software of the Las Americas roundabout located opposite the Jorge Chavez International Airport. Microsimulation was performed using Wiedemann parameters, which were used in the calibration and validation of the model making it as close to reality considering the geometry of the study area and the Psychology of the drivers. In the first chapter you will find the problem of vehicular congestion in Peru and Lima, some background of similar studies, the hypothesis and the objectives of the investigation. In the second chapter the theoretical framework was developed that supports the criteria with which both the microsimulation model and the proposal for improvement have been developed. Here we can find the definition of the different types of models, the fundamentals of microsimulation (Wiedemann model) and the analysis that runs the Vissim v9 software is explained. The third chapter describes the methodology used from the collection of field data to the properly calibrated and validated microsimulation model. In the fourth chapter the results of the microsimulation are presented, which indicate the current service level of the roundabout is “F” and it was possible to improve up to one “D”, according to the HCM (2010). In the last chapter you will find the conclusions and recommendations reached in response to the general objective of this thesis. / Tesis

The distribution of economic wellbeing is generally regarded as one of the key performance indicators of a society and economic wellbeing is strongly influenced by income, wealth and consumption. Despite this, almost all studies of inequality in Australia have relied upon income as the sole measure of economic wellbeing, due in large part to the ready availability of income data. This thesis attempts to redress that deficiency. This thesis provides an insight into an under-researched but vitally important topic � the distribution of wealth. Specifically the research has three goals. The first is to provide estimates of the level and distribution of wealth in Australia at the current time and the trends over the past decade or two. The second aim is to provide projections of the future wealth distribution. The final goal is to see if there are significant differences between the distribution of lifetime wealth and the annual cross-sectional distribution of wealth. The research uses a technique not previously used in Australia to estimate wealth in the future � dynamic microsimulation. The microsimulation model used is based on a starting sample of 150,000 individuals and this large number allows a large range of experiences to be modelled, while not having the high costs, years of commitment and other problems associated with undertaking panel studies. This thesis estimates that the average levels of wealth will increase significantly over the 40-year period from 2000 to 2040 but that wealth inequality will increase over the same period. The reasons for the increases in wealth inequality appear to be due to changes in asset ownership, particularly lower levels of home ownership; the ageing population; and increases in inequality within age cohorts. The research found that lifetime wealth inequality for a sub-group of Generation X differed from the distribution based on annual data. The lifetime wealth inequality was significantly less than the annual wealth inequality.

Vehicular emissions contribute significantly to poor air quality in urban areas. An integrated modelling approach is adopted to estimate microscale urban traffic emissions. The modelling framework consists of a traffic microsimulation model, a microscopic emissions model, and two dispersion models. This framework is applied to a traffic network in downtown Toronto to evaluate summer time morning peak traffic emissions during weekdays for carbon monoxide and nitrogen oxide. The model predicted results are validated against sensor observations with a reasonably good fit. Availability of local estimates of ambient concentration is useful for accurate comparisons of total predicted concentrations with observed concentrations. Both predicted and observed concentrations are significantly smaller than the National Ambient Air Quality Objectives established by Environment Canada. Sensitivity analysis is performed on a set of input parameters and horizontal wind speed is found to be the most influential factor in pollutant dispersion.

Vehicular emissions contribute significantly to poor air quality in urban areas. An integrated modelling approach is adopted to estimate microscale urban traffic emissions. The modelling framework consists of a traffic microsimulation model, a microscopic emissions model, and two dispersion models. This framework is applied to a traffic network in downtown Toronto to evaluate summer time morning peak traffic emissions during weekdays for carbon monoxide and nitrogen oxide. The model predicted results are validated against sensor observations with a reasonably good fit. Availability of local estimates of ambient concentration is useful for accurate comparisons of total predicted concentrations with observed concentrations. Both predicted and observed concentrations are significantly smaller than the National Ambient Air Quality Objectives established by Environment Canada. Sensitivity analysis is performed on a set of input parameters and horizontal wind speed is found to be the most influential factor in pollutant dispersion.

This dissertation estimates the relationship between tax-reporting decision and the change in marginal tax rates, relying on taxpayer's responses (standard labor supply response) as well as reported behavioral responses (compliance). There are still limited studies on elasticity estimates for developing countries. We utilize an applicable theoretical model by using standard labor supply model and summarize a tax avoidance model as the base of our elasticity estimation. The labor supply theoretical model suggests ambiguity of the labor supply decision and the tax avoidance model suggests that the responsiveness of taxpayers in the reporting decision differs across income groups. As previously stated, in developing countries, empirical evidence on reporting decision is still very limited. For our empirical analysis, we estimate reporting income elasticity for microsimulation purposes. We use this elasticity to estimate a dynamic behavior microsimulation model. The elasticity result shows that higher-income groups are more responsive and lower-income groups are less responsive to changes in tax policy. Our empirical analysis continues with estimating differences in taxpayers’ responses to the change in tax policy. We use a modified difference-in-difference model to analyze behavioral responses of taxpayers who are highly affected by the change in marginal tax rate compared to those who are least affected. The result shows that the treatment group, who experienced larger reductions on their marginal tax rate, reported more of their income relative to the control group, whose members are least affected by the change in marginal tax rate. The last part of our empirical analysis examines the distribution of income tax burden across different income groups and examines the government's tax collection from withholding income from some proposed scenarios. We proposed several scenarios and estimated the change in income tax burden compared to that under current income tax law. We also examined the government's revenue loss by calculating the tax differences under current and proposed scenarios. The overall microsimulation results suggest that there is a trade-off between government revenue loss and the distribution of income tax burden.

Transportation projects often involve communication of project information between diverse parties and have been a challenge with increasing complexity. Communication, review and feedback are very important for planners, builders/developers and traffic engineers for successful project execution. Past research was successful in finding effective ways to communicate to stakeholders and improve project performance. 3D/4D CAD modeling has been one among them which offers potential benefits from planning to construction phase owing to its wide range of capabilities. However, there is no single tool to analyze traffic conditions and changing geometry during construction for reviewing and better decision-making. A methodology to use DTA models as a source for traffic information and development of traffic visualization during construction with microsimulation output is discussed in this thesis. The benefits of adding traffic information to 3D/4D CAD models and some potential areas of application are explored. Two case studies on TxDOT transportation construction projects are considered to explain the modeling and analysis for better understanding of different phases of the projects. Also, a small construction scenario was analyzed to validate the traffic data generated from DTA models for their use as an input to microsimulation models. / text

This thesis proposes a framework that combines a mode choice model with a large scaled agent-based multimodal traffic microsimulation. Both components are discussed with respect to their development as separate entities. The mode choice model uses a formulation that explicitly considers latent modal captivity despite using conventional travel survey data. An existing multimodal microsimulation traffic assignment model used in the study area is enhanced and partially calibrated for use with the MATSIM traffic assignment tool. Both of the components are then tested independently in terms of statistical and behavioral validity and a conceptual procedure to test the implications of the mode choice model on mode switching behaviour within the traffic assignment model is presented. Other applications of both the travel assignment model and mode choice model are discussed. In order for the framework to become operational, further development with respect to the traffic assignment model is required.