This project defines a decision support system developed to permit the user to perform a cost - benefit analysis for any military installation cited for closure, relocation, or privatization. The procedure recognizes both the economic costs and strategic benefits of a feasible solution. Though the cost estimates for a particular study may vary in magnitude, the economic portion of the model must focus on the net savings to the tax payer. Detailed cost estimates for each alternative have been developed at a level so that sensitivity analysis can be performed on any of the input parameters. Individual cost elements have been summed to yield the net cost increase / decrease to the United States tax payer. The resultant cost figures were converted to an economic score. The paper also describes a effective method to evaluate the benefits derived from implementing various alternatives. By incorporating a group participative process using multivoting and the Dunn-Rankin technique, the values resulting fro m benefits have yielded a benefits score. The Brown-Gibson model, which considers both subjective and objective measures, was used to depict the combination of economic and benefit scores to provide an overall cost - benefit score. A graphical illustrat ion of the cost - benefit tradeoffs serves as a useful tool in assessing the risk associated with a decision. The results of the analysis have supported the Department of the Navy's decision to privatize the Naval Air Warfare Center Aircraft Division, Indianapolis, IN. The Department of Defense is considering alternatives for many military installations, this process will facilitate those decisions. / Master of Science

The dissertation explores the financial ramifications of US military base closure on local community real estate property values. The dissertation examines an area that has not received sufficient research. Previous works on military base closure by Bradshaw, Kroll, Corley, Kirshenbaum and Harlan (1995); Dardia, McCarty, Malkin, and Vernez, (1996); Hooker and Knetter (2001) and Krizan (1998) examine more generalized economic factors such as employment and macroeconomic activity. More recent published dissertation work by authors Hall (1998) and Poppert (2002) have provided interesting explanatory hypotheses to assist municipal and state leaders in crafting working plans to assist communities where base closure occurs. This dissertation intends to look into the effects on real estate property values in the wake of military base closures. The dissertation expands the study of base closure effects into a relatively new area on the fluctuation of real estate property values. An enhanced understanding of how military base closures affect real estate values will have implications for real estate investors, developers, city and county government planners, and budget directors from local school districts to state government.

This thesis analyses major U.S. military bases closed by the Base Realignment and Closure (BRAC) Commission since 1988. The study focuses on geographic patterns of pre-existing versus BRAC bases, statistical attributes, environmental restoration, and reuse of bases. Comparative case studies supplement the analysis, highlighting rural versus urban location, success versus failure, politics, conflict, and local versus national goals. Thesis findings are that: 92 bases closed versus 97 commonly published; a fairly even national closure pattern occurred, indicating Commission efforts to achieve equity, except for three closure clusters indicating efforts to consolidate functions in some regions and leave others; base reuse, while commonly perceived negatively, has been positive in most cases; the BRAC process is becoming more efficient, such that allowed years between BRAC closure decisions and base closures should be reduced from six to three years to benefit both communities and the Defense Department.