Made available in DSpace on 2014-06-11T19:27:19Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 0 Previous issue date: 2011-09-28Bitstream added on 2014-06-13T18:55:56Z : No. of bitstreams: 1 oliveira_mjg_me_arafcl.pdf: 295933 bytes, checksum: 2c3c89bc1ef42e80153321a65c5d111b (MD5) / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES) / A Educação Superior pode ser considerada uma ferramenta que possibilita ao indivíduo, através do investimento em seu Capital humano, ampliação de sua capacidade produtiva, maiores salários, proporcionando menor iniqüidade na distribuição de renda entre os indivíduos. O objetivo deste trabalho é traçar um perfil sócio-econômico do recém formado no ensino superior brasileiro com base em dados do Exame Nacional do Desempenho dos Estudantes (ENADE). Como se sabe, a escolha do curso superior no Brasil tem forte influência de fatores sociais e econômicos. Para estimar probabilidades com que um graduado seja de determinado curso, dado seu perfil, um modelo logit multinomial foi estimado. Conclui-se que quando a expectativa em relação ao curso é de ganhos futuros, homens brancos, negros e mulatos tendem a escolher cursos de exatas e engenharias. Em contrapartida, os cursos de humanas, em sua maioria, são demandados por mulheres brancas, negras e mulatas. Mesmo assim, há mulheres brancas, em certas regiões como Sudeste e Sul, que tem preferência por curso de engenharias e exatas / Higher education can be considered a tool that enables an individual, through investment in human capital, expanding his or her production abilities, higher wages, providing less unequal distribution of income among individuals.This work aims to build a profile of the Brazilian college graduated based on data from ENADE (Student Performance National Exam). As fairly known, college career choice in Brazil is strongly affected by social and economic factors. In order to estimate the probability of choosing a career, given the student profile, a multinomial logit model will be estimated. It is possible to conclude that when the expectation is over the course of future earnings, white males, blacks and mulattoes tend choose the exact and engineering courses. In contrast, the humanities courses, mostly, are demanded by white, black and mulatto. Still, there are white women in certain regions such as Southeast and South, which has a preference for engineering courses and exact

Submitted by Renata Lopes (renatasil82@gmail.com) on 2017-04-04T18:11:10Z No. of bitstreams: 1 diegodasilvarodrigues.pdf: 406421 bytes, checksum: aeaa7de595b7c22c154883eda85bdc86 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Adriana Oliveira (adriana.oliveira@ufjf.edu.br) on 2017-04-06T10:43:39Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 diegodasilvarodrigues.pdf: 406421 bytes, checksum: aeaa7de595b7c22c154883eda85bdc86 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2017-04-06T10:43:39Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 diegodasilvarodrigues.pdf: 406421 bytes, checksum: aeaa7de595b7c22c154883eda85bdc86 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2009-12-21 / Esse trabalho tem por finalidade estimar a probabilidade de migração interestadual dos trabalhadores que se destinam ao setor informal. Especificamente, busca-se analisar a probabilidade de migração conforme o nível de renda dos estados de destino. Esse objetivo é motivado pelo fato do Brasil apresentar intensa migração interna, o que leva à necessidade de compreender se as características dessa migração são as mesmas se considerarmos apenas o setor informal, que apresenta peculiaridades. Para isso, será elaborado um modelo probabilístico de migração com base em um banco de dados montado a partir da Ecinf (IBGE/2003). Inicialmente, é estimado um modelo probit simples, visando entender o impacto de características observadas pessoais, de trabalho e da região na decisão do indivíduo migrar. Depois, é estimado um modelo multinomial, buscando entender o impacto que essas características observadas têm quando o destino da migração é diferenciado pelo nível de renda dos estados. Os principais resultados obtidos indicam que, entre os informais, a migração segue características semelhantes às observadas na literatura, como ser mais propensa entre as mulheres, e apresentar renda maior entre os migrantes em comparação com os não-migrantes, sendo esta uma variável importante para a migração às regiões mais ricas. Por outro lado, os resultados também mostram que o aumento do nível de instrução tende a diminuir a probabilidade de um trabalhador informal migrar, indo de encontro ao que se observa noutros mercados de trabalho. / This paper aims to estimate the probability of interstate migration of informal workers. More specifically, it has the objective to analyze the probability of migration according to the income level of the destination states. This goal is motivated by the fact that Brazil has a strong internal migration, which leads to the need of understanding if the characteristics of the internal migration are the same if one considers only the informal sector, which presents peculiarities. This way, a probabilistic model of migration is made based on a database from the Ecinf (IBGE/2003). Initially, it is estimated a simple probit model, in order to understand the impact of observed personal, job and regional characteristics on the individual's decision to migrate. After that, it is estimated a multinomial model, trying to understand the impact that these observed characteristics have when the destination of the migration is differentiated by the income level of the states. The main results show that, among informal workers, the migration has characteristics similar to those observed in the literature and in the proposed model, as being more likely among women, and presenting higher incomes among the migrants when compared with non-migrants, and that being an important variable for migration to richer regions. On the other hand, the results also show that, among the informal workers, increasing of the educational level of the individuals tends to reduce the probability to migrate, against what is observed in other job markets.

"Cross-Border Contagion in the Banking Sector: The Case of Nordic Countries" by Lina Baronaite Abstract: The objective of the thesis is to estimate the degree of cross-border contagion among the Nordic banking sectors. It analyzes a sample of sixteen largest listed Nordic banks from January 2004 to January 2014. Using a multinomial logit model we test whether there is any degree of contagion among the four banking sectors, whether it is more pro- nounced for larger banks and whether the recent financial crisis has exacerbated it. Our results are in line with similar studies conducted for other countries. In particular, we find that a shock in one bank- ing sector is positively associated with an increase in shocks in another banking sector. Second, these shocks are larger and more significant for larger and more active international banks. Finally, the effect of the recent financial crisis has ambiguous effects on the cross-sectoral banking contagion. It appears that contagious links between some sec- tors weakened (Sweden and Denmark, Sweden and Finland). Other economies (Sweden and Norway) on the contrary became more depen- dent on each other. The results are robust to a wide variety of changes in specifications.

The LSH-study started in 2003 at the department of Health and Society at the University of Linköping. The purpose of the study was to examine the relationship between life condition, stress and health. A total of 1007 people from ten different health centres in Östergötlands län participated. At the follow up, a couple of years later, 795 of the 1007 participated. 127 of the 212 in the attrition turned down the follow up, twelve people were not invited (for example in case of death) and the rest did not respond at all. The purpose of this paper is to find out in what degree the attrition in the follow up can be predicted using the information from the first survey and which variables are important. The differences between different types of attrition have also been examined. Simple and multiple bi- and multinomial logistic regression have been used in the analysis. In total 34 variables were examined and in the final model six variables remained with a significant relation to the attrition. High BMI, regular smoking, high pulse and lack of daily exercise at the first survey were connected to a higher risk for an individual to not participate at the follow up. It is interesting that these factors are considered as risk factors for unhealthy living. Other factors related to a higher attrition were unemployment in the last year before the first survey and if the individual had parents born in another country than Sweden. The risk for attrition increased gradually when more risk factors were shown by the individual. The factors contributing an individual to turn down the follow up instead of not responding at all was if he or she were in the older age segments in the survey or if they were not active in any type of association.

In recent years, changes in government policies, supply and demand fundamentals and price patterns in the cotton market have led to several shifts in how producers market their cotton. This thesis examined producer cash marketing choices, including direct and indirect hedging, in four different periods since 2001. Special emphasis was placed on the 2010 season - a season characterized by historically high prices and volatility. Producer marketing behavior was modeled as a discrete choice between four different cash market outlets: forward contracting with a merchant, post-harvest cash contracting, contracting with a merchant pool and contracting with a cooperative pool. Hedging was characterized as a tool that was used in conjunction with one of the four discrete choices. This thesis employed multinomial logit estimation to determine the influence of factors on producers' choice of primary cash marketing decisions. Data were collected from a mail survey of the population of cotton growers in Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas. The most important determinants of cotton cash marketing choices were 1) prior participation in cooperative pools, beliefs about the value of pre-harvest pricing, beliefs about the performance of merchant pools, willingness to accept lower prices to reduce risk, and several socio-economic variables.

The objective of this thesis is to evaluate different models and methods for website classification. The websites are classified based on their functionality, in this case specifically whether they are forums, news sites or blogs. The analysis aims at solving a search engine problem, which means that it is interesting to know from which categories in a information search the results come. The data consists of two datasets, extracted from the web in January and April 2013. Together these data sets consist of approximately 40.000 observations, with each observation being the extracted text from the website. Approximately 7.000 new word variables were subsequently created from this text, as were variables based on Latent Dirichlet Allocation. One variable (the number of links) was created using the HTML-code for the web site. These data sets are used both in multinomial logistic regression with Lasso regularization, and to create a Naive Bayes classifier. The best classifier for the data material studied was achieved when using Lasso for all variables with multinomial logistic regression to reduce the number of variables. The  accuracy of this model is 99.70 %. When time dependency of the models is considered, using the first data to make the model and the second data for testing, the accuracy, however, is only 90.74 %. This indicates that the data is time dependent and that websites topics change over time.

The purpose of this paper is to investigate how individuals with different characteristics make their choice-decisions when consuming STIGA table tennis blades, which are combinations of various attributes, such as price, control, attack, etc. It is expected that the general trend of choice behavior on this special commodity can be, at least to some extent, revealed. Data were collected using questionnaires sent to registered members of a table tennis club in China. The questionnaires included information and questions about individuals’ monthly income levels, ages, technique styles, etc. A multinomial logit model was then applied to analyze factors determining Chinese consumers’ choice behavior on STIGA table tennis blades. The results indicated that the main element influencing Chinese consumers’ choice of STIGA ping-pong blades was the technique style and other variables did not seem to influence the choice of table tennis blades. These results might be explained by the limited sample size as well as unmeasured and immeasurable factors. Thus, a more extensive research is needed to be conducted in the future.

This research focuses on developing comprehensive frameworks for developing robust parameter design methodology for dynamic systems with automatic control and for synthesis of nanostructures. In many automatically controlled dynamic processes, the optimal feedback control law depends on the parameter design solution and vice versa and therefore an integrated approach is necessary. A parameter design methodology in the presence of feedback control is developed for processes of long duration under the assumption that experimental noise factors are uncorrelated over time. Systems that follow a pure-gain dynamic model are considered and the best proportional-integral and minimum mean squared error control strategies are developed by using robust parameter design. The proposed method is illustrated using a simulated example and a case study in a urea packing plant. This idea is also extended to cases with on-line noise factors. The possibility of integrating feedforward control with a minimum mean squared error feedback control scheme is explored. To meet the needs of large scale synthesis of nanostructures, it is critical to systematically find experimental conditions under which the desired nanostructures are synthesized reproducibly, at large quantity and with controlled morphology. The first part of the research in this area focuses on modeling and optimization of existing experimental data. Through a rigorous statistical analysis of experimental data, models linking the probabilities of obtaining specific morphologies to the process variables are developed. A new iterative algorithm for fitting a Multinomial GLM is proposed and used. The optimum process conditions, which maximize the above probabilities and make the synthesis process less sensitive to variations of process variables around set values, are derived from the fitted models using Monte-Carlo simulations. The second part of the research deals with development of an experimental design methodology, tailor-made to address the unique phenomena associated with nanostructure synthesis. A sequential space filling design called Sequential Minimum Energy Design (SMED) for exploring best process conditions for synthesis of nanowires. The SMED is a novel approach to generate sequential designs that are model independent, can quickly "carve out" regions with no observable nanostructure morphology, and allow for the exploration of complex response surfaces.

This dissertation contains two essays on the effect of welfare reform on child- birth, marriage, and divorce. In the first essay, I exploit the cross state variation in welfare reform implementation to identify its effect on birth rates. The results from multinomial logit models suggest that the welfare reform significantly increased the probability of marital births. The out-of-wedlock birth rates decreased but this effect is not significant. The strong work incentives decrease birth rates in both marital and non-marital statuses suggesting that bearing a child is not appealing for women who are more progressive in careers. However, the most aggressive welfare policy significantly increases marital birth as expected. Birth rates among teenage girls are not affected by the welfare reform. I further investigate the effect of the family cap policy. Using a semi-natural experiment, I compare the birth rate of women who already have had a second or higher order birth (treatment group) to women who have had one child (comparison group), in states with and without family caps. The difference in difference estimates reveal a strictly negative effect of family caps on the higher order birth rates as expected. In the second essay, I use reduced-form estimation and cross-state variation in timing of reform adoption to extract both mechanical and behavioral effects of welfare reform on marriage and divorce likelihood. I construct a flow measure of marriage and divorce by matching individuals in the Current Population Survey from March 1988B to 2002 and observing changes in marital status. I introduce a converse matching procedure to detect women who are not in the survey for two consecutive years. I find that the welfare reform has a significantly negative effect on marriage rates and an insignificant effect on divorce rates. The Difference-in-Difference estimates suggest that marriage among disadvantaged women is negatively affected by the welfare reform. I also provide a theoretical model to decompose the effect of welfare reform on marriage due to each of the components of the reform, i.e., time limits, work sanctions, earnings disregards, and maximum cash benefits. My results provide a novel explanation for the effects of work incentives and welfare restrictions on marriage.

Economic aspects of household recycling behavior and attitudes in City of Bryan are examined to improve solid waste management policies in the city. Using survey data collected by mail and personal interviews, residents’ attitudes towards solid waste management are analyzed, in general, and specifically, the factors influencing recycling behavior examined using logistic regression. In addition, three alternative policies are presented to respondents. First, support for an additional drop-off recycling center (Policy I) is examined. Second, WTP for two different recycling programs, curbside recycling service (Policy II), and curbside recycling with a drop-off recycling center (Policy III), as a function of socio-economic factors thought to influence WTP are computed using contingent valuation method, an indirect valuation tool. Finally, preference for a particular policy among the three alternatives presented to the residents of Bryan is explored. Because of the different data collection modes and assumptions on the bid prices two logit models are estimated to examine recycling behavior, and Policy I and two multinomial logit models for the most preferred policy, whereas four logit models are estimated for Policy II and III. The estimated models are similar both within the Policies and between the Policies in terms of the affects of variables, significance of coefficients, and consistency with previous studies indicating a potential set of factors that can be used to explain WTP for recycling services. Bryan residents that are female, white, employed, have higher incomes, have children, own a house, and are self-perceived environmentalists tend to recycle more. Similarly, males, nonwhites, older respondents, students, non-environmentalists and non-recyclers are more likely to support an additional drop-off center. WTP for Policy II is positively influenced by males, whites, respondents who are employed, low-income respondents, environmentalists, non-recyclers, and those who support Policy I. In comparison, WTP for Policy III is positively influenced by females, whites, respondents who are employed, younger respondents, environmentalists, non-recyclers, and those who support Policy I. In the case of both Policies I and II, the bid price negatively influences WTP as expected. While the WTP for Policy II is slightly higher than the estimated cost of a curbside recycling service ($2.50), the WTP for Policy III is lower than the estimated cost. No consistent pattern emerges across most of the coefficients and the four possible alternatives, three proposed policies and the current situation. However, probabilities computed using the multinomial logit results is the highest for Policy II, followed by either Policy III or no change to the existing solid waste management policy.