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The role of video game quality in financial marketsSurminski, Nikolai January 2023 (has links)
Product quality is an often-overlooked factor in the financial analysis of video games. Quality measurements have been proven to work as a reliable predictor of sales while also directly influencing performance in financial markets. If markets are efficient in reflecting new information, perception of video game quality will lead to a rational response. This thesis examines the market reaction to this information set. The release structure in the video game industry allows for a direct observation of the isolated quality effect through third-party reviews. These reviews form an objective measurement of game quality without having other revealing characteristics, as all other information is released prior to these reviews. The possibility to exploit this unique case motivates the analysis through multiple empirical designs. Results from a multivariate regression model show a statistically significant positive effect of higher quality on short-term returns over all models. The release of a lower quality game reduces returns only for high-profile games. Both of these results are confirmed by the results from a rules-based trading strategy. These effects subside in the face of longer holding periods and higher exposure. This thesis finds sufficient evidence that video game quality should be an important factor in the analysis of video game companies. At the same time, these effects are only persistent in the short-time validating an efficient response to new information by financial investors.
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Método de monitoramento para gestão de portfólio de produtosHerzer, Rafael 29 February 2016 (has links)
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Previous issue date: 2016-02-29 / CAPES - Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior / O presente trabalho tem como objetivo propor um método de monitoramento para gestão de portfólio, o qual, através de um sistema multi-critério e de um modelo econométrico, identifica variações no cenário econômico e em indicadores da empresa sendo então, a partir do monitoramento de resíduos, possível definir o momento exato para alteração de portfólio de produtos. A Gestão de Portfólio de produtos vem atraindo interesse dos gestores das corporações e deste modo, é difícil encontrar alguma organização que não possua uma carteira de produtos e projetos para gerenciar. A Gestão de Portfólio trata das decisões de alocação de recursos e de como ficará a carteira dos produtos atuais, sendo uma ferramenta de extrema importância para o resultado, principalmente financeiro, das organizações. Encontram-se vários métodos na literatura para realizar a Gestão do Portfólio, dentre os quais modelos financeiros, modelos probabilísticos financeiros, modelos de escores e checklists, abordagens de hierarquia analítica, abordagens comportamentais e abordagens de mapas ou diagrama de bolhas são os mais relevantes. Mesmo existindo diversos métodos na literatura para realizar a gestão do portfólio, não há consenso sobre qual método deve ser utilizado em cada etapa específica. Esses métodos também necessitam de intervenção dos gestores, levando em consideração que geralmente as informações disponíveis para tomada de decisão não são completas ou exatas. Para este estudo, foi realizado um estudo de simulação Monte Carlo para avaliar a sensibilidade dos diversos elementos que compõem o método. Os resultados mostraram taxas de alarmes falsos e tempo médio para detectar a mudança semelhantes a estudos anteriores. Esse processo de gestão e tomada de decisão é considerado complexo para os gestores das empresas, uma vez que o portfólio necessita ser periodicamente revisado, buscando sempre maximização de valor e equilíbrio ideal de produtos no mercado. Por fim, a aplicação do modelo é ilustrada por um caso real, utilizando dados fornecidos por uma empresa multinacional do segmento agrícola. / Product Portfolio Management is attracting the interest of the managers of the corporations. With the competitiveness of the market, it is difficult to find an organization that does not have a portfolio of products to manage. The Portfolio Management deals with resource allocation decisions and how will the portfolio of current products be compouse, being an extremely important tool for the result, especially financial, for the organizations. This process of management and decision making is considered complex to company managers, since the portfolio needs to be periodically revised, always seeking to maximize value and correct balance of products on the market. There are several methods in the literature to perform portfolio management, among which financial models, financial probabilistic models, scores and checklists models, analytical hierarchy of approaches, behavioral approaches and approaches map or diagram bubbles are the most relevant. While there are several methods in the literature to make the portfolio management, there is no consensus about which method should be used in each specific step. These methods also require the intervention of managers, taking into account that generally available information for decision-making are not complete or accurate. This paper aims to propose a method, which, through a multi-criteria system containing an econometric model, identifies changes in the economic environment and business indicators and then, from the profile monitoring, can set the exacly time for change portfolio of products. We performed the Monte Carlo simulation study to assess the sensitivity of the various parts that make up the method. The results showed false alarm rate and mean time to detect changes similar to previous studies. Finally, the application of the model is illustrated by a real case using data provided by a multinational company, agricultural segment.
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