The steep, mountainous terrain of southwestern Norway is prone to a high frequency of rockslides. It is known that many of these rockslides are triggered by meteorological conditions, yet there have been few studies dedicated to quantifying the link between rockslides and the runoff conditions and freeze/thaw processes that trigger failure. With recent climate research indicating that southwestern Norway will experience warmer temperatures and increased precipitation, it has become apparent that a better understanding of this link is required to help prepare for future events. Rockslides in Norway lead to road closures, property damage and fatalities every year, and one of the biggest challenges for Norwegian authorities is to react to rockslides as they happen and to reopen roads as soon as possible. This is especially true when several rockslides occur on the same day in multiple locations. As a result, authorities wish to implement a hazard mapping system that uses a weather forecast to predict when and where geohazards are likely to occur. To this end, this thesis is aimed at providing a rockslide forecast map that changes every day based on the weather forecast. By comparing a rockslide database to historic weather records, the work carried out for this thesis has indicated that extreme runoff during winter storms is responsible for triggering the majority of rockslides in the region. Using this knowledge as a basis, two potential hazard mapping systems are proposed, one based on trigger threshold exceedance and the other based on weights-of-evidence susceptibility mapping. Both of these methods operate by mapping areas experiencing extreme runoff conditions. Several runoff parameters were tested for possible inclusion, and it was found that 48-hr antecedent runoff, normalized by mean monthly precipitation had the best correlation with rockslide occurrence. Verification of these methods indicates that both approaches are successful in predicting days with extreme conditions, thereby alerting authorities that a high frequency of rockslides is likely. Due to the complex nature of rockslide triggering, it is not fully understood how climate change will affect future rockslide activity; however, this thesis attempts to answer these questions and to provide a basis for future studies. / Thesis (Master, Geological Sciences & Geological Engineering) -- Queen's University, 2010-01-28 08:12:43.316

Worldwide, recognition of the growing risk faced by communities in many countries from natural hazard events has stimulated interest in promoting people's capacity to co-exist with often beneficial, but occasionally hazardous, natural processes by encouraging the adoption of preparedness measures. Starting from recognition that levels of hazard preparedness are generally low, this paper examines how people's decisions about hazard mitigation derive from how they interpret the hazards, their relationship with the hazards and the sources of information about hazards. It describes how interpretive processes at the person (outcome expectancy), community (community participation and collective efficacy) and societal (empowerment and trust) level interact to predict levels of hazard preparedness. The data support the argument that the effectiveness of public hazard education strategies community preparedness can be increased by integrating risk management activities with community development strategies. The cross-cultural validity of the model is discussed using data from communities in New Zealand, Indonesia and Japan. Testing the model across countries and hazards (e.g. earthquakes, volcanic hazards) supports its all-hazards and cross-cultural applicability. The theoretical (e.g. identifying the degree to which the processes that underpin how people respond to hazard threats are culturally equivalent) and practical (e.g. providing a common basis for collaborative learning and research between countries and providing risk management agencies in different cultures with access to a wider range of risk management options) implications of the cross-cultural equivalence of the model are discussed.

The current study explores the social construction of natural hazards vulnerability by examining the perceptions of emergency management personnel, homeless service providers and homeless men living in Central Florida. The matrix of vulnerability is proposed as a framework for studying disaster vulnerability, wherein vulnerability is viewed as a complex process consisting of social and physical risk, human agency and time. Using the matrix as a guiding framework, this study examines the risks that natural hazards present to the homeless living in Central Florida and the strategies used by the homeless to manage these risks. This study argues that because the homeless experience increased exposure to natural hazards coupled with potential chronic medical conditions, economic hardship, and social stigma, they are more vulnerable to natural hazards than the general population. However, this study finds that homeless men in Central Florida utilize a variety of strategies that help them manage their risks to severe and inclement weather in Central Florida.

This study comprised of a survey of 807 students in geosciences classes at Mississippi State University to determine the perceived level of threat from eight natural hazards: hurricanes, hail, lightning, tornadoes, earthquakes, ice storms, floods, and wildfires. Responses were analyzed to detect spatial differences in perceptions of threats across the state of Mississippi for comparison. Actual occurrences of the natural hazards and preparations for dealing with these hazards were recorded by county and MEMA districts. Threat perceptions for hurricanes, ice storms, floods, and lightning showed spatial differences, whereas threats from hail, tornadoes, earthquakes, and wildfire showed no spatial differences. All perceived threats except ice storms paralleled the actual recorded occurrences of the respective hazards spatially. Preparations for each hazard included the adoption of MEMA’s Basic Plan for the entire state.

Barrier islands can protect the mainland from flooding during storms through reduction of storm surge and dissipation of storm generated wave energy. However, the protective capability is reduced when barrier islands breach and a direct hydrodynamic connection between the water bodies on both sides of the barrier island is established. Breaching of barrier islands during large storm events is complicated, involving nonlinear processes that connect water, sediment transport, dune height, and island width among other factors. In order to assess the impacts barrier island breaching has on flooding on the mainland, we modified a storm surge model, GeoClaw, to impose a Gaussian bell-curve on the barrier island that opens during a hurricane simulation and deepened over time. We added a new method of generating storm surge with storm forcing inputs in the form of wind and pressure fields to expand GeoClaw's current utilization of best track information so that storm forcing from planetary boundary layer models can also be utilized in simulations. We created a statistical method to assess the sensitivity of mainland storm-surge to barrier island breaching by randomizing the location, time, and extent of a breach event across the barrier island at Moriches, NY. My results show that total mainland inundation is affected by the changes in location, size, timing and numbers of breaches. Total inundation has a logarithmic relationship with total breach area and breach location is an important predictor of inundation and bay surge. The insights from this study can help prepare shoreline communities for the differing ways that breaching affects the mainland coastline. The model updates created can also allow others to use this framework to study differing regions. Understanding which mainland locations are vulnerable to breaching, planners and coastal engineers can design interventions to reduce the likelihood of a breach occurring in areas adjacent to high flood risk. / Doctor of Philosophy / Storm surge is one of the most deadly and expensive parts of a hurricane. Storm surge can be reduced if a barrier island exists near the mainland coastline. The sand dunes, beach vegetation, and size of the island aid in reducing the waves and storm-surge generated by large storms. When a barrier island breaches it causes a channel of water that connects the ocean and the bay that separates the island from the mainland. This channel of water allows waves and storm surge to be directly pushed into the bay, increasing the storm surge along the mainland coast. Breaching is complex with many factors such as dune size and total island width determining when or where a breach will form. In order to study how breaching affects the mainland during a hurricane, we chose a program that simulates storm surge from a hurricane, made a simple breaching calculation that opens a hole in a sand dune on a barrier island so that the ocean and bay are directly connected and the storm surge can pass through this hole, and enabled the program to use storm data that is pre-computed rather than generated during the simulation. In order to understand how breaching impacts the mainland coast at Moriches, NY, we simulated a hurricane and varied the number, size, and time of different breaches. We learned that total of all breach dimensions has a linear relationship to the amount of coastal flooding up to a threshold, where the breaches cover most of the island. Coastal communities can use the results of this study to determine where to put interventions in place that will reduce the impacts of barrier island breaching, update flood risk maps, and warn community members of changes in their location's risk assessment. Additionally, other regions with barrier islands nearby can use the software updates we created to study their own regions and assess different risk patterns than this study.

The Master of Engineering Management Project was sponsored by the Canterbury Earthquake Recovery Authority (CERA) and consisted of two phases: The first was an analysis of existing information detailing the effects of hazardous natural events on Canterbury Lifeline Utilities in the past 15 years. The aim of this “Lessons Learned” project was to produce an analysis report that identified key themes from the research, gaps in the existing data and to provide recommendations from these “Lessons Learned.” The Second phase was the development of a practical “Disaster Mitigation Guideline” that outlined lessons in the field of Emergency Sanitation. This research would build upon the first stage and would draw from international reference to develop a guideline that has practical implementation possibilities throughout the world.

Statistical models are necessary to quantify and understand the risk from natural hazards. A statistical framework is developed here to investigate the e ect of dependence between the frequency and intensity of natural hazards on the aggregate risk. The aggregate risk of a natural hazard is de ned as the sum of the intensities for all events within a season. This framework is applied to a database of extra tropical cyclone tracks from the NCEP-NCAR reanalysis for the October to March extended winters between 1950 and 2003. Large positive correlation is found between cyclone counts and the local mean vorticity over the exit regions of the North Atlantic and North Paci c storm tracks. The aggregate risk is shown to be sensitive to this dependence, especially over Scandinavia. Falsely assuming independence between the frequency and intensity results in large biases in the variance of the aggregate risk. Possible causes for the dependence are investigated by regressing winter cyclone counts and local mean vorticity on teleconnection indices with Poisson and linear models. The indices for the Scandinavian pattern, North Atlantic Oscillation and East Atlantic Pattern are able to account for most of the observed positive correlation over the North Atlantic. The sensitivity of extremes of the aggregate risk distribution to the inclusion of clustering, with and without frequency intensity dependence, is investigated using Cantelli bounds and a copula simulation approach. The inclusion of dependence is shown to be necessary to model the clustering of extreme events. The implication of these ndings for the insurance sector is investigated using the loss component of a catastrophe model. A mixture model approach provides a simple and e ective way to incorporate frequency-intensity dependence into the loss model. Including levels of correlation and overdispersion comparable to that observed in the reanalysis data results in an average increase of over 30% in the 200 year return level for the aggregate loss.

Master of Arts / Department of Geography / John A. Harrington Jr / Wildcat Creek Watershed near Manhattan, Kansas, experiences damaging flash floods that have required evacuations in recent years (Spicer 2011). The purpose of this study was to qualitatively examine the issue of flooding in the Wildcat Creek Watershed through interviewing stakeholders (those that reside, own a business, or study) using a semi – structured approach. Interview discussion examined stakeholders’ perceptions of 1) how they understand the processes that create the flooding hazard, 2) whether or not they value the implementation of mitigation efforts to reduce the negative impacts of flooding, 3) whether they feel at risk to flooding, and 4) who they consider a trusted source of information about the hydrologic characteristics of the watershed. Based on the results of this study, a spatial relationship in perceptions of flooding issues in the Wildcat Creek Watershed was found. Across the study area, stakeholders understood many of the physical causes of flooding, but did not tend to see the connections among the many physical components. Overall, stakeholders believed that mitigation strategies to curb flash flooding were valuable, although many were not supportive of paying for these efforts through potential taxation from a watershed district. Despite the increase of flooding events in the past decade (Anderson 2011), many stakeholders neither saw any changes in their personal risk of exposure to flooding nor a change in their flood vulnerability. In the context of the flooding issue in Wildcat Creek Watershed, most participants trusted their neighbors and community leaders as sources of information instead of professionals who research and/or conduct work on the watershed.

This dissertation consists of three papers in environmental and natural resource economics. The first paper estimates the value of statistical lives (VSL) from hurricane evacuation behavior through an empirical analysis. I present empirical models that predict individuals' willingness to pay (WTP) for avoiding hurricane risks revealed through their evacuation behavior. Using survey data from Texas residents (who were affected by Hurricane Ike), I analyze the individuals’ hurricane evacuation decisions and their corresponding WTP for evacuation. I also estimate the individuals' WTP for avoiding hurricane risks under both voluntary and mandatory evacuation orders and calculate the associated VSL. The findings can be useful to emergency management agencies for evacuation planning. In the second paper, I study market responses to multiple hurricanes based on evidence from real estate sales data. Unlike earlier studies that examined the effect of hurricane exposures on property value, the present study considers how multiple hurricane hits affect the home value. I use repeat sales data from three counties in Florida from 2000 to 2010 and develop a hedonic price model. The findings identify the determinants that influence the property value and provide valuable insights for homebuyers and sellers. The study also provides useful insights regarding the benefits of hurricane mitigations to Florida residents and beyond. The third paper investigates the time preference and the dynamics of evacuation behavior based on evidence from Hurricane Ike and Hurricane Sandy. This paper contributes to the literature on households’ evacuation timing decisions by investigating the factors influencing people’s time preference for evacuation behavior. Unlike other studies, I examine the residents’ evacuation behavior across the Gulf coast as well as the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic coasts from a comparative perspective. I use one survey dataset from Texas residents who experienced Hurricane Ike and another survey dataset from the Northeastern and Mid-Atlantic US states that were affected by Hurricane Sandy. The results provide insights for future hurricane evacuation planning and emergency management.

Coastal areas are often important to economic, social, and environmental processes throughout the world. With changing climate and growing populations in these areas, coastal communities have become increasingly vulnerable to extreme flooding events, such as tsunami, storm surges, and flash floods. Within this new paradigm, there has been an effort to improve upon current methods of hazard assessment, particularly for tsunami. Recently, the American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) released the ASCE 7 Chapter 6 which was the world’s first standard, written in mandatory language, that addressed tsunami resilient design in a probabilistic manner for several of its prescriptions. While often the focus tends to be on mapping the hazards related to hydraulic loading conditions, post-tsunami field surveys from disaster-stricken coastal communities have also shown the importance of also considering the loads exerted by solid objects entrained within the inundating flows, commonly referred to as debris loading. Limited research has addressed debris hazard assessment in a comprehensive manner. Debris loading can be generally divided into two categories: impact and damming. Debris impact loads are caused by the rapid strike of solid objects against a structure. Debris damming loads are the result of the accumulation of debris at the face of or around a structure, causing thus an obstruction to the flow. The primary difference between these loads is the time period over which they act. The rapid loading due to debris impacts requires structural properties be considered in assessing the associated loads whereas debris damming loads are generally considered in a quasi-static manner. In assessing the hazard associated with both impact and damming loading conditions, methodologies must be developed to consider the likelihood of the load occurring and the magnitude of that load. The primary objective of this thesis was to develop a probabilistic framework for assessing debris hazards in extreme coastal flooding events. To achieve this objective, the components of the framework were split into three general categories: debris transport, debris damming, and debris impact. Several physical experimental studies were performed to address each of these components, representing the most comprehensive assessment of debris hazards in extreme flooding events to date. Debris transport was addressed to estimate the likelihood of debris loading occurring on a structure. The studies presented herein examine the different parameters that must be considered in assessing the motion of debris with the flow. The studies showed that the initial configuration of the debris and hydrodynamic conditions were critical in determining the motion of the debris. The stochastic properties of the debris motion were also assessed. It was shown that the lateral displacement of the debris could be approximated by a Gaussian distribution and the debris velocity by a Kumaraswamy (1980) distribution. The study of debris impact was further used to develop the current models used in estimating the impact force. The rigid body impact model was compared to models where the structural response was considered. The analysis showed that the effective stiffness model proposed by Haehnel and Daly (2004) was best suited to provide a conservative estimation of the impact force. Additionally, the impact geometry was taken into consideration examining the influence of various parameters on the impact force. Furthermore, debris damming was examined for the first time in transient loading conditions. This particular study examined the influence of the transient wave condition on the debris dam formation as well as the influence of different debris geometries. The influence of the debris dam geometry was correlated to increases in loading and overtopping conditions at structures. The assessment of debris hazards is critical in the development of accurate design conditions. The probabilistic framework presented within this thesis is expected to provide a basis for estimating debris hazards and inform future studies in the development of hazard assessment models.