Thesis (M.Sc.(Hons.))--Victoria University of Wellington, 2009. / Includes bibliographical references.

Natural disasters such as earthquakes, tsunamis, landslides and volcanic activities has had devastating effects on human life. Risk is the probability of harmful consequences from the interaction of hazards and vulnerable conditions. With increasing numbers of people living in crowded cities and other vulnerable areas, it is more important than ever to advance our understanding of natural disasters and the ways in which humans respond to them. My interdisciplinary study reflected in my thesis includes integrated research on the risk assessment methods for natural hazards with focus on earthquake disasters. This thesis address firstly the development of a scaled risk assessment framework, comparative assessment of natural hazard losses, including respective case studies and global overview of natural hazard risk, and secondly a comparative risk assessment of geological disasters to elaborate the major disastrous hazards for global population. Furthermore, I evaluate the effect of past events in form of the number of losses with respect to the exposed population on the proneness of people to the disaster. I summarize acceptable risk criteria and the necessity of having a normalized framework for societal risk assessment. I evaluate the natural hazard risk assessment and acceptable risk criteria of 32 European countries. I also introduce the concept of resistance in both risk equation and in FN-curves. Resistance is the societal resilience of a society to the occurrence of a natural disaster. Moreover, using components of FN-curves (slopes and intercepts) for risk assessment of geological disasters based on real data, I showed that the world has been more at risk of earthquakes than tsunamis, volcanic activities and landslides since 1600. Also. based on the earthquake disasters data (1973-2010), I evaluated the temporal trend of hazard, risk, exposure and resistance of the world towards earthquake disasters. Our results does not provide any evidence of increase or decrease in the temporal trend of fatality rate and earthquake resistance while there is a significant decrease in the crude death rate. Finally, we evaluated the reliability of earthquake disaster system during 1950-2012 using probability of more than 1000 fatalities as probability of failure. Our yearly estimate of reliability at the beginning of each mission year shows that the avreage reliability of earthquake disaster system is very low (~0.3) and it is decreasing over time, too.

Current dynamic of global climate change is the trigger of new natural processes such as glacial lake outburst floods. One example is lake Imja located in the hinterland of Mt. Everest. Outburst of lake Imja would have undoubtedly negative impact on financial and cultural climate of attached area. This diploma thesis is focusing on the various factors and its imapct on the stability of moraine. The main aim of this thesis is to evaluate possibility of impact of rockfall into the lake, to monitor the development of its expansion in comparison with growing temperatures in last 60 years and also to assess the development of morphology of moraine containing dead ice. The results of the thesis indicate accelerating expansion of the lake at the expense of the Imja and Lhotse Shar glaciers, for which the rising means of temperatures of the months in the warm half of the year are particularly important. The results also show that there is no risk of producing wave after impact of rockfall into the lake, as the lateral moraines are sufficiently high to protect the lake. The crucial factor for the stability of the moraine dam is the melting of dead ice in its core, where new and new thermokarst lakes are forming on the surface of the moraine and a seepage through the moraine in its southwestern part has also...

Les catastrophes sont les produits d'une étroite relation entre les hommes et la nature. Le développement économique et social contribue à accroitre fortement la vulnérabilité aux catastrophes. Au-delà des motivations qui sont les siennes, les êtres humains ont élaboré des méthodes pour minimiser les effets désastreux de cette relation. De ce fait, étudier les risques associés aux catastrophes naturelles et non-naturelles permet de trouver des méthodes adaptées au suivi et à la gestion des risques tant concernant les facteurs naturels que les facteurs non-naturels. Cette recherche a pour but d'analyser la manière avec laquelle les processus de gestion des risques de catastrophes ont été mis en place dans l'émirat d'Abu Dhabi, aux Emirats Arabes Unis, par les différentes institutions responsables, qu'elles soient publiques ou privées. La vulnérabilité des Emirats Arabes Unis aux catastrophes s'accroit avec l'importance du développement des activités industrielles dans la période actuelle. De plus, les désastres liés à des mouvements tectoniques et aux phénomènes climatiques sont devenus très fréquents dans le pays. Au cours des années actuelles, différents types de catastrophes ont affecté la population des Emirats Arabes Unis et impacté les ressources des agences intergouvernementales qui sont chargés de la gestion des situations d'urgence en cas de catastrophes. L'étude permet de tirer différentes conclusions sur le fonctionnement du système de prévention et de gestion des risques dans l'émirats d'Abu Dhabi et aux Emirats Arabes Unis, mettant en avant les difficultés rencontrées pour la mise en place de réponses parfaitement adaptées aux problèmes rencontrés. Différentes recommandations sont enfin élaborées pour aller plus loin dans la réflexion sur la réduction et la gestion des risques naturels et non-naturels et sur l'élaboration de mesures adéquates. Il apparait alors que les procédures d'urgence mises en place à l'échelle nationale, mais aussi régionale, celle du Conseil de Coopération du Golfe, sont les facteurs essentiels de la réduction ou au contraire de l'accentuation de l'impact des catastrophes dans le territoire étudié. / Disasters are produced by a vigorous mankind interaction with nature. Social and economic development are major contributors to increasing disasters' vulnerability, Regardless of its various motivators, human beings have sought methods to minimize its devastating effects. Therefore, studying risks associated to natural and non-natural disasters provides means that could be utilized in the forecasting and management of risks on both natural and non-natural sides. This research aims to analyze how disaster risk management process has been built in the emirate of Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirate, by the different stakeholders in charge whether on public or private actors. The UAE vulnerability to disasters is increasing with the huge development industrial activities taking place at the present. Furthermore, tectonic and weather related disasters are becoming very common in the UAE. Different types of disasters affect the UAE population and stretch the government and inter- agency resources as they all respond to the emergencies. The study came across many conclusions in regards to UAE continuous system of risk assessment and risk management. Many recommendations are listed for further investigation and implementation
Finally, the national and regional emergency procedures are key factors to mitigate or increase disasters' impact on regions

In order to improve our understanding of present and future coastal environmental change, we look into the past using sediment that accumulates in coastal environments. We have done this for two disparate systems: a back-barrier lagoon in southwestern Japan, and freshwater tidal marshes along the Hudson River, New York, USA. In Japan, we used a 2,500-year sediment record to investigate coastal flood risk from tsunamis and typhoons. This is a critical area of study to better understand the spatial and temporal variability of these hazards in Japan. In the Hudson River we looked at modern (since 1800) deposition of sediment in anthropogenically constructed embayments that have formed tidal wetlands in the last few centuries. A better understanding of the factors that have attributed to these successful tidal marsh systems in the past can help inform future management decisions in the face of future sea level rise. Studying the history of coastal systems using the sediment record is a valuable tool for assessing hazard risk and habitat loss in the present and future.

Magister Artium - MA / The objective of the study was to find out whether the decentralisation of responsibulities for social economics development facilitated the management of disaster risk during the 2007 floods in Mozambique. the specific aims of the study were to : analyse and discuss national policies for decentralisation and their significance for DRM. Investigate which responsibilities, human and financial resources were available to local governments for the planning, implemantations and monitoring of DRM activities. Identify mechanisms institutions and activities for DRM and find out whether they provided to be effective. Explore how concerned communities participated in DRM activitiesto reduce their vulnerability to disaster risk.

<p dir="ltr">Restoration of civil infrastructure is <b>not</b> equivalent to the full recovery of a community from natural hazards. Considering the recovery of only civil infrastructure in quantifying the disaster recovery of a community does not allow for capturing the long-term socio-economic impacts of natural hazards (e.g., stress, anxiety, unemployment, etc.). The role of having a robust social infrastructure in facilitating disaster recovery and addressing both short-term and long-term impacts of natural hazards needs to be explored. Social infrastructure is defined as formal entities (e.g., governmental organizations, community centers, NGOs, religious centers, etc.) as well as informal social ties such as individuals and households that assist in post-disaster recovery and alleviate the distress caused by natural hazards. Social infrastructure not only addresses post-disaster tangible needs such as shelter, food, and water but also helps alleviate disaster-induced socio-economic distress in communities.</p><p dir="ltr">This research focuses on identifying the capacity needs of the social infrastructure to facilitate disaster recovery (measured using community well-being as the recovery metric), while integrating the cascading impacts from other affected inter-dependent infrastructure systems (i.e., civil, civic, cyber, financial, environmental, and educational). Using community well-being, which is defined as the state in which the needs of a community are fulfilled, allows for incorporating both short-term and long-term impacts of natural hazards.</p><p dir="ltr">The research starts with modeling post-disaster community well-being using the indicators selected from existing community well-being models. After the selection of indicators, several data sources such as phone call, survey, and FEMA support programs data were used to 1) verify the structure of the community well-being model, and 2) quantify post-disaster community well-being. Chapter 3 elaborates on this process and its outcome, which is a framework for quantifying post-disaster community well-being based on disaster helpline and survey data.</p><p dir="ltr">Chapter 4 introduces a Bayesian Network<b> </b>modeling framework for quantifying the role of social infrastructure services in the form tangible, emotional, and informational support in enhancing post-disaster community well-being. The Bayesian model was then used to propose capacity building strategies for increasing the robustness of social infrastructure and its supporting infrastructure to foster post-disaster community well-being in the face of future hurricanes.</p><p dir="ltr"><b>Intellectual Merit</b>: the proposed research is unique in its kind as it leverages social and psychological well-being models and theories to characterize the role of social infrastructure in the recovery of communities from natural disasters. The research contributes to infrastructure and urban resilience models by considering the role of social infrastructure services using community well-being as the recovery metric. It also contributes to social sciences by introducing 2-1-1 disaster helpline data as an inexpensive and timely replacement for multiple rounds of survey questionnaires for quantifying community well-being.</p><p dir="ltr"><b>Broader Impacts</b>: the proposed model and the obtained results can serve as an Ex-Ante Capacity building tool for decision-makers to predict the status of communities in the face of future natural hazards and propose capacity building strategies to have higher post-disaster support, and thereby, community well-being.<br></p><p dir="ltr"><br></p>

The Jamaican hurricane history goes back a long time. The country has an average ratio of getting hit or brushed every 3.84 years and it is estimated to be hit directly every 9.47 years. This underscores the relevance of this paper since it seeks to investigate the construction, social structure and policy response of Jamaica. The impressions of the author combined with the interviews and literature study resulted in the conclusion of the constructions and social structure not being the main issue, but the policy response.

Adam Emmer: Potential hazardousness of selected moraine-dammed lakes in the Cordillera Blanca, Peru ABSTRACT: This work is devided into the two parts. Firs part reviews contemporary methods of assessment of potential hazardousness for moraine-dammed lakes (eight qualitative methods and three quantitative methods). Second part has two main aims: 1) Assessment of potential hazardousness of seven selected moraine-dammed lakes in the Cordillera Blanca, and 2) Analysis of suitability of these methods for use in this region. Required input data for potential hazardousness assessment were gained from analysis of remotely sensed photographs, research papers of INRENA/ANA institute (Huaráz), and from fieldwork realized in 2012. Ten methods of potential hazardousness assessment were applied on seven studied moraine-dammed lakes. There are no significant differences in results obtained in each method. These results showed, that potentially most hazardous lake is that of Arhueycocha, followed by Palcacocha. On the other hand potentially less hazardous lake is that of Rajucolta. Based on analysis of regional specific of causes and mechanisms of glacial lake outburst floods from moraine-dammed lakes in Cordillera Blanca, five groups of characteristics which reflect these regional specifics were merged: A) possibility of...

Master of Arts / Department of Geography / Richard Marston / Slope failures play a significant role as a mass movement hazard in the deglaciated mountain canyons in Grand Teton National Park. The park’s geologic and glacial histories are unique in comparison to other areas in the Rocky Mountain range. However, few detailed maps and statistical analyses of slope failures as hazards exist for park officials and visitors. The purpose of this study is to produce a comprehensive map of slope failures in five of the most accessible and commonly used canyons of the park: Cascade, Death, Garnet, Granite, and Paintbrush. This project combined fieldwork, LiDAR imagery, and GIS mapping to document five main categories of slope failures—rock slides, rock/debris flows, rock falls, and snow avalanches, as well as complex slope failures involving a combination of these categories. Summary statistics, maps, and histograms of average slope gradient, aspect, and curvature conditions as well as precipitation conditions at the “source” area of slope failures were generated for individual canyons as well as the entire study area. Snow avalanche source areas where debris flows were not readily present occurred most commonly on north and northeast facing slopes, slopes averaging a 40% gradient, and slightly convex slopes. Debris flow source areas occurred most commonly on south and southeast facing slopes, slopes with an average 42% gradient, and on slightly convex slopes. Rock fall source areas were most common on north facing slopes, slopes of an average 55% gradient, and a mostly flat curvature. Rock slide source points were most common on north facing slopes, slopes of an average 54% gradient, and flat to slightly concave slopes. Rock Mass Strength (RMS) values were sampled at a rate of every 0.5 kilometers on the hiking trail of each canyon to provide an introductory insight into rock stability conditions in each canyon. Slope failures not only impact the physical landscape of canyons in Grand Teton National Park but can affect human structures as well. Physical attributes and locations of slope failures were compared to locations of camping zones and hiking trails in the Park to determine areas of common human usage that were most susceptible to past movement events.