Yes / A re-analysis of archaeomagnetic data from seven vitrified hillforts in Scotland, sampled in the 1980s, shows excellent agreement with recent radiocarbon dates. In the past thirty years our knowledge of the secular variation of the geomagnetic field has greatly improved, especially in the 1st millennium BC, allowing earlier archaeomagnetic data to be reconsidered. We evaluate the likelihood of the data with respect to a state-of-the-art field geomagnetic model and find close coherence between the observed directions and the model for the closing centuries of the first millennium BC. A new Bayesian method of calibration gives the most likely number of separate events required to produce a series of magnetic directions. We then show that the burning of three of the four oblong forts most likely took place around the same time, and our estimate for the date of this is indistinguishable from recent radiocarbon dates from another fort of similar type.

This thesis provides contributions to research in Bayesian modeling and shrinkage in the wavelet domain. Wavelets are a powerful tool to describe phenomena rapidly changing in time, and wavelet-based modeling has become a standard technique in many areas of statistics, and more broadly, in sciences and engineering. Bayesian modeling and estimation in the wavelet domain have found useful applications in nonparametric regression, image denoising, and many other areas. In this thesis, we build on the existing techniques and propose new methods for applications in nonparametric regression, image denoising, and partially linear models. The thesis consists of an overview chapter and four main topics. In Chapter 1, we provide an overview of recent developments and the current status of Bayesian wavelet shrinkage research. The chapter contains an extensive literature review consisting of almost 100 references. The main focus of the overview chapter is on nonparametric regression, where the observations come from an unknown function contaminated with Gaussian noise. We present many methods which employ model-based and adaptive shrinkage of the wavelet coefficients through Bayes rules. These includes new developments such as dependence models, complex wavelets, and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) strategies. Some applications of Bayesian wavelet shrinkage, such as curve classification, are discussed. In Chapter 2, we propose the Gibbs Sampling Wavelet Smoother (GSWS), an adaptive wavelet denoising methodology. We use the traditional mixture prior on the wavelet coefficients, but also formulate a fully Bayesian hierarchical model in the wavelet domain accounting for the uncertainty of the prior parameters by placing hyperpriors on them. Since a closed-form solution to the Bayes estimator does not exist, the procedure is computational, in which the posterior mean is computed via MCMC simulations. We show how to efficiently develop a Gibbs sampling algorithm for the proposed model. The developed procedure is fully Bayesian, is adaptive to the underlying signal, and provides good denoising performance compared to state-of-the-art methods. Application of the method is illustrated on a real data set arising from the analysis of metabolic pathways, where an iterative shrinkage procedure is developed to preserve the mass balance of the metabolites in the system. We also show how the methodology can be extended to complex wavelet bases. In Chapter 3, we propose a wavelet-based denoising methodology based on a Bayesian hierarchical model using a double Weibull prior. The interesting feature is that in contrast to the mixture priors traditionally used by some state-of-the-art methods, the wavelet coefficients are modeled by a single density. Two estimators are developed, one based on the posterior mean and the other based on the larger posterior mode; and we show how to calculate these estimators efficiently. The methodology provides good denoising performance, comparable even to state-of-the-art methods that use a mixture prior and an empirical Bayes setting of hyperparameters; this is demonstrated by simulations on standard test functions. An application to a real-word data set is also considered. In Chapter 4, we propose a wavelet shrinkage method based on a neighborhood of wavelet coefficients, which includes two neighboring coefficients and a parental coefficient. The methodology is called Lambda-neighborhood wavelet shrinkage, motivated by the shape of the considered neighborhood. We propose a Bayesian hierarchical model using a contaminated exponential prior on the total mean energy in the Lambda-neighborhood. The hyperparameters in the model are estimated by the empirical Bayes method, and the posterior mean, median, and Bayes factor are obtained and used in the estimation of the total mean energy. Shrinkage of the neighboring coefficients is based on the ratio of the estimated and observed energy. The proposed methodology is comparable and often superior to several established wavelet denoising methods that utilize neighboring information, which is demonstrated by extensive simulations. An application to a real-world data set from inductance plethysmography is considered, and an extension to image denoising is discussed. In Chapter 5, we propose a wavelet-based methodology for estimation and variable selection in partially linear models. The inference is conducted in the wavelet domain, which provides a sparse and localized decomposition appropriate for nonparametric components with various degrees of smoothness. A hierarchical Bayes model is formulated on the parameters of this representation, where the estimation and variable selection is performed by a Gibbs sampling procedure. For both the parametric and nonparametric part of the model we are using point-mass-at-zero contamination priors with a double exponential spread distribution. In this sense we extend the model of Chapter 2 to partially linear models. Only a few papers in the area of partially linear wavelet models exist, and we show that the proposed methodology is often superior to the existing methods with respect to the task of estimating model parameters. Moreover, the method is able to perform Bayesian variable selection by a stochastic search for the parametric part of the model.

Indiana University-Purdue University Indianapolis (IUPUI) / Bayesian networks, one of the most widely used techniques to understand or predict the future by making use of current or previous data, have gained credence over the last decade for their ability to simulate large gene expression datasets to track and predict the reasons for changes in biological systems. In this work, we present a dynamic Bayesian model with gene annotation scores such as the gene characterization index (GCI) and the GenCards inferred functionality score (GIFtS) to understand and assess the prediction performance of the model by incorporating prior knowledge. Time-course breast cancer data including expression data about the genes in the breast cell-lines when treated with doxorubicin is considered for this study. Bayes server software was used for the simulations in a dynamic Bayesian environment with 8 and 19 genes on 12 different data combinations for each category of gene set to predict and understand the future time- course expression profiles when annotation scores are incorporated into the model. The 8-gene set predicted the next time course with r>0.95, and the 19-gene set yielded a value of r>0.8 in 92% cases of the simulation experiments. These results showed that incorporating prior knowledge into the dynamic Bayesian model for simulating the time- course expression data can improve the prediction performance when sufficient apriori parameters are provided.

The Bayesian network (BN) formalism is a powerful representation for encoding domains characterised by uncertainty. However, before it can be used it must first be constructed, which is a major challenge for any real-life problem. There are two broad approaches, namely the hand-crafted approach, which relies on a human expert, and the data-driven approach, which relies on data. The former approach is useful, however issues such as human bias can introduce errors into the model. We have conducted a literature review of the expert-driven approach, and we have cherry-picked a number of common methods, and engineered a framework to assist non-BN experts with expert-driven construction of BNs. The latter construction approach uses algorithms to construct the model from a data set. However, construction from data is provably NP-hard. To solve this problem, approximate, heuristic algorithms have been proposed; in particular, algorithms that assume an order between the nodes, therefore reducing the search space. However, traditionally, this approach relies on an expert providing the order among the variables --- an expert may not always be available, or may be unable to provide the order. Nevertheless, if a good order is available, these order-based algorithms have demonstrated good performance. More recent approaches attempt to ''learn'' a good order then use the order-based algorithm to discover the structure. To eliminate the need for order information during construction, we propose a search in the entire space of Bayesian network structures --- we present a novel approach for carrying out this task, and we demonstrate its performance against existing algorithms that search in the entire space and the space of orders. Finally, we employ the hand-crafting framework to construct models for the task of diagnosis in a ''real-life'' medical domain, dementia diagnosis. We collect real dementia data from clinical practice, and we apply the data-driven algorithms developed to assess the concordance between the reference models developed by hand and the models derived from real clinical data.

A growing problem in network security stems from the fact that both attack methods and target systems constantly evolve. This problem makes it difficult for human operators to keep up and manage the security problem. To deal with this challenge, a promising approach is to use reinforcement learning to adapt security policies to a changing environment. However, a drawback of this approach is that traditional reinforcement learning methods require a large amount of data in order to learn effective policies, which can be both costly and difficult to obtain. To address this problem, this thesis investigates ways to incorporate prior knowledge in learning systems for network security. Our goal is to be able to learn security policies with less data compared to traditional reinforcement learning algorithms. To investigate this question, we take a Bayesian approach and consider Bayesian reinforcement learning methods as a complement to current algorithms in reinforcement learning. Specifically, in this work, we study the following algorithms: Bayesian Q-learning, Bayesian REINFORCE, and Bayesian Actor-Critic. To evaluate our approach, we have implemented the mentioned algorithms and techniques and applied them to different simulation scenarios of intrusion prevention. Our results demonstrate that the Bayesian reinforcement learning algorithms are able to learn more efficiently compared to their non-Bayesian counterparts but that the Bayesian approach is more computationally demanding. Further, we find that the choice of prior and the kernel function have a large impact on the performance of the algorithms. / Ett växande problem inom cybersäkerhet är att både attackmetoder samt system är i en konstant förändring och utveckling: å ena sidan så blir attackmetoder mer och mer sofistikerade, och å andra sidan så utvecklas system via innovationer samt uppgraderingar. Detta problem gör det svårt för mänskliga operatörer att hantera säkerhetsproblemet. En lovande metod för att hantera denna utmaning är förstärkningslärande. Med förstärkningslärande kan en autonom agent automatiskt lära sig att anpassa säkerhetsstrategier till en föränderlig miljö. En utmaning med detta tillvägagångsätt är dock att traditionella förstärkningsinlärningsmetoder kräver en stor mängd data för att lära sig effektiva strategier, vilket kan vara både kostsamt och svårt att erskaffa. För att lösa detta problem så undersöker denna avhandling Bayesiska metoder för att inkorporera förkunskaper i inlärningsalgoritmen, vilket kan möjliggöra lärande med mindre data. Specifikt så studerar vi följande Bayesiska algoritmer: Bayesian Q-learning, Bayesian REINFORCE och Bayesian Actor- Critic. För att utvärdera vårt tillvägagångssätt har vi implementerat de nämnda algoritmerna och utvärderat deras prestanda i olika simuleringsscenarier för intrångsförebyggande samt analyserat deras komplexitet. Våra resultat visar att de Bayesiska förstärkningsinlärningsalgoritmerna kan användas för att lära sig strategier med mindre data än vad som kravs vid användande av icke-Bayesiska motsvarigheter, men att den Bayesiska metoden är mer beräkningskrävande. Vidare finner vi att metoden för att inkorporera förkunskap i inlärningsalgoritmen, samt val av kernelfunktion, har stor inverkan på algoritmernas prestanda.

Typescript (photocopy). / Digitized by Kansas Correctional Industries

This thesis sets out to investigate the Alzheimer's disease (AD) heterogeneity in an unsupervised framework. Different subtypes of AD were identified in the past from a number of studies. The major objective of the thesis is to apply clustering methods that are specialized in coping with high dimensional data sets, in a sample of AD patients. The evaluation of these clustering methods and the interpretation of the clustered groups from a statistical and a medical point of view, are some of the additional objectives. The data consist of 271 MRI images of AD patients from the AddNeuroMed and the ADNI cohorts. The raw MRI's have been preprocessed with the software Freesurfer and 82 cortical and subcortical volumes have been extracted for the needs of the analysis. The effect of different strategies in the initialization of a modified Gaussian Mixed Model (GMM) (Bouveyron et al, 2007) has been studied. Additionally, the GMM and a Bayesian clustering method proposed by Nia (2009) have been compared with respect to their performances in various distance based evaluation criteria. The later method resulted in the most compact and isolated clusters. The optimal numbers of clusters was evaluated with the Hopkins statistic and 6 clusters were decided while 2 observations formed an outlier cluster. Different patterns of atrophy were discovered in the 6 clusters. One cluster presented atrophy in the medial temporal area only (n=37,~13.65%). Another cluster resented atrophy in the lateral and medial temporal lobe and parts of the parietal lobe (n=39,~14.4%). A third cluster presented atrophy in temporoparietal areas but also in the frontal lobe (n=74,~27.3%). The remaining three clusters presented diffuse atrophy in nearly all the association cortices with some variation in the patterns (n1=40,~14.7%,n2=58,~21.4,n3=21,7.7%). The 6 subtypes also differed in their demographical, clinical and pathological features.

The first purpose of this thesis is to provide a framework for the inclusion of data from a secondary source in Bayesian decision analysis as an aid in decision making under uncertainty. A second purpose is to show that the Bayesian procedures can be implemented on a computer to obtain accurate results at little expense in computing time. The state variables of a bridge design example problem are the unknown parameters of the probability distribution of the primary data. The primary source is the annual peak flow data for the stream being spanned. Information pertinent to the choice of bridge design is contained in rainfall data from gauges on the watershed but the distribution of this secondary data cannot be directly expressed in terms of the state variables. This study shows that a linear regression equation relating the primary and secondary data provides a means of using secondary data for finding the Bayes risk and expected opportunity loss associated with any particular bridge design and single new rainfall observation. The numerical results for the example problem indicate that the information gained from the rainfall data reduces the Bayes risk and expected opportunity loss and allows for a more economical structural design. Furthermore, the careful choice of the numerical methods employed reduces the computation time for these quantities to a level acceptable to any budget.

Various climate models have been developed to analyze and predict climate change; however, model uncertainties cannot be easily overcome. A statistical approach has been presented in this paper to calculate the distributions of future climate change based on an ensemble of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) models. Wavelet analysis has been adopted to de-noise the WRF model output. Using the de-noised model output, we carry out Bayesian analysis to decrease uncertainties in model CAM_KF, RRTM_KF and RRTM_GRELL for each downscaling region. / text

This thesis investigates the improvements that can be made to Bayesian passive sonar tracking in the context of active-passive sonar data fusion. Performance improvements are achieved by exploiting the prior information available within a typical Bayesian data fusion framework. The algorithms developed are tested against both simulated data and data measured during the SEABAR 07 sea trial. Results show that the proposed approaches achieve improved detection, decreased estimation error, and the ability to track quiet targets in the presence of loud interferers. / text