Esta dissertação tem como objetivo estudar a combinação de duas técnicas de planejamento em inteligência artificial: planejamento hierárquico e planejamento sob incerteza Knightiana. Cada uma delas possui vantagens distintas, mas que podem ser combinadas, permitindo um ganho de eficiência para o planejamento sob incerteza e maior robustez a planos gerados por planejadores hierárquicos. Primeiramente, estudamos um meio de efetuar uma transformação, de modo sistemático, que permite habilitar algoritmos de planejamento determinístico com busca progressiva no espaço de estados a tratar problemas com ações não-determinísticas, sem considerar a distribuição de probabilidades de efeitos das ações (incerteza Knightiana). Em seguida, esta transformação é aplicada a um algoritmo de planejamento hierárquico que efetua decomposição a partir das tarefas sem predecessoras, de modo progressivo. O planejador obtido é competitivo com planejadores que representam o estado-da-arte em planejamento sob incerteza, devido à informação adicional que pode ser fornecida ao planejador, na forma de métodos de decomposição de tarefas. / This dissertation\'s objective is to study the combination of two artificial intelligence planning techniques, namely: hierarchical planning and planning under Knightian uncertainty. Each one of these has distinct advantages, but they can be combined, allowing the planning under uncertainty a performance gain and giving the hierarchical planning the ability to produce more robust plans. First, we study a way of performing a transformation, in a sistematic way, that enables forward-chaining deterministic planning algorithms to deal with non-deterministic actions, that doesn\'t take into account the probability distribution of actions\' effects (Knightian uncertainty). Afterwards, this transformation is applied to a hierarchical planning algorithm that progressively performs decomposition starting from tasks without predecessors. The obtained planner is competitive with state-of-the-art non-deterministic planners, thanks to the additional information that can be given to the planner, in the form of task decomposition methods.

Changes in the electric power industry have brought great challenges and uncertainties in transmission planning area. More effective planning of transmission grids with the appropriate development of advanced planning technologies is badly-needed. The aim of this research is to develop an advanced probabilistic transmission expansion planning (TEP) methodology in a continually changing market environment. The methodology should be able to strengthen and increase the robustness of existing transmission network. By using the proposed probabilistic TEP methodology, it can reduce the risks of major outages and identify weak buses in the system. The significance of this research is shown by its comprehensiveness and powerful practicability. Results from this research are able to improve the planning efficiency and reliability with consideration of financial risks in an electricity market. In order to achieve the target, this research methodologies focused on two main important issues, (1) probability based technical assessment and (2) financial investment evaluation. During the first stage study, probabilistic congestion management, probabilistic reliability evaluation and probabilistic load flow for TEP under uncertainties have been investigated and improved. The developed methodologies and indices, which truly represent the composite impact from both critical state and probability, have linked with financial terms. At financial investment evaluation part, Monte Carlo market simulation is performed to assist economic analysis. The overall planning process has been treated as a constrained multi-objective optimisation task. Comprehensive investigations are conducted on several test systems and testified by real power systems using the available reliability data and economic information from the Australian National Electricity Market (NEM). Overall, this research developed probabilistic transmission planning methodologies that can reflect modern market structures more accurately and it enable a greater utilization of current generation and transmission resources to increase potential operation efficiencies.

Esta dissertação tem como objetivo estudar a combinação de duas técnicas de planejamento em inteligência artificial: planejamento hierárquico e planejamento sob incerteza Knightiana. Cada uma delas possui vantagens distintas, mas que podem ser combinadas, permitindo um ganho de eficiência para o planejamento sob incerteza e maior robustez a planos gerados por planejadores hierárquicos. Primeiramente, estudamos um meio de efetuar uma transformação, de modo sistemático, que permite habilitar algoritmos de planejamento determinístico com busca progressiva no espaço de estados a tratar problemas com ações não-determinísticas, sem considerar a distribuição de probabilidades de efeitos das ações (incerteza Knightiana). Em seguida, esta transformação é aplicada a um algoritmo de planejamento hierárquico que efetua decomposição a partir das tarefas sem predecessoras, de modo progressivo. O planejador obtido é competitivo com planejadores que representam o estado-da-arte em planejamento sob incerteza, devido à informação adicional que pode ser fornecida ao planejador, na forma de métodos de decomposição de tarefas. / This dissertation\'s objective is to study the combination of two artificial intelligence planning techniques, namely: hierarchical planning and planning under Knightian uncertainty. Each one of these has distinct advantages, but they can be combined, allowing the planning under uncertainty a performance gain and giving the hierarchical planning the ability to produce more robust plans. First, we study a way of performing a transformation, in a sistematic way, that enables forward-chaining deterministic planning algorithms to deal with non-deterministic actions, that doesn\'t take into account the probability distribution of actions\' effects (Knightian uncertainty). Afterwards, this transformation is applied to a hierarchical planning algorithm that progressively performs decomposition starting from tasks without predecessors. The obtained planner is competitive with state-of-the-art non-deterministic planners, thanks to the additional information that can be given to the planner, in the form of task decomposition methods.