Thesis (Ph. D.)--New School for Social Research, 1992. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 272-282).

A mensuração do risco de um investimento é uma das mais importantes etapas para a tomada de decisão de um investidor. Em virtude disto, este trabalho comparou três métodos de estimação (tradicional, através da analise univariada dos retornos do portfólio; cópulas estáticas e cópulas dinâmicas) de duas medidas de risco: Value at Risk (VaR) e Expected Shortfall (ES). Tais medidas foram estimadas para o portfólio composto pelos índices BOVESPA e S&P500 no período de janeiro de 1998 a maio de 2012. Para as modelagens univariadas, incluindo as marginais das cópulas, foram comparados os modelos GARCH e EGARCH. Para cada modelo univariado, utilizamos as cópulas Normal, t-Student, Gumbel rotacionada e Joe-Clayton simetrizada, com isso totalizando 36 modelos comparados. Nas comparações do VaR e ES foram utilizados, respectivamente, o teste de Chritoffersen e o teste de Mcneil e Frey. Os principais resultados encontrados foram a superioridade de modelos que supõem erros com distribuição t-Student, assim como a identificação de mudança no comportamento dos parâmetros dinâmicos nos períodos de crise. / Measuring the risk of an investment is one of the most important steps in an investor's decision-making. With this in light, this study compared three estimation methods (traditional; by univariate analysis of portfolio returns; dynamic copulas and static copulas), of two risk measurements: Value at Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES). Such estimated measures are performed for a portfolio composed by the BOVESPA and S&P500 indexes, ranging from January 1998 to May 2012. For univariate modelling (including copulas marginals), the GARCH and EGARCH models were compared,. Regarding copulas, we use Normal, t-Student, rotated Gumbel and symmetric Joe-Clayton, leading to a total of 36 models being compared. For the comparison of VaR and ES were used, respectively, the Christoffersen test, and the Mcneil and Frey test. The main results found were the superiority of models assuming the t-Student distributed errors, as well as the identification of a change in the behaviour of dynamic parameters in periods of crisis.

The research presented in this thesis develops an improved design methodology for designing complex systems. While traditional methods have been able to create complex systems, their success is usually overshadowed by long delays and expensive overruns. The method developed within this research is known as Value Seeking System Design (VSSD) and builds upon the foundations of the System Engineering (SE) and Value Driven Design (VDD) approaches. Creation and implementation of the new design environment is provided, including a method on how to create the value model for any complex system. Key conclusions from this work include a need to redefine the process in which stakeholder needs are currently defined and captured as well as a need to create an improved value model. Defining all stakeholders’ needs as requirements constrains the designer to a rigid solution space, which may not include the “best” solution for the stakeholder. Similarly not including the social aspects within a value model causes the designer to make poor value trades. To overcome these problems the VSSD technique incorporates desirements and their associated design desirability functions within the design process to create a non-rigid solution space while the value model has been redeveloped to easily incorporate the performance, economic and social aspects of a design, to allow a more accurate and balanced value trade off analysis to occur. Benchmarking the VSSD approach against the current state of the art methods (SE and VDD) highlighted the advantages of adapting a value approach to complex system design compared to traditional requirement based techniques. Additionally while all three approaches were capable of designing complex systems the VSSD approach was demonstrated to be an improved design methodology as it possessed the benefits inherent within both the SE and VDD approaches without suffering from their limitations.

A mensuração do risco de um investimento é uma das mais importantes etapas para a tomada de decisão de um investidor. Em virtude disto, este trabalho comparou três métodos de estimação (tradicional, através da analise univariada dos retornos do portfólio; cópulas estáticas e cópulas dinâmicas) de duas medidas de risco: Value at Risk (VaR) e Expected Shortfall (ES). Tais medidas foram estimadas para o portfólio composto pelos índices BOVESPA e S&P500 no período de janeiro de 1998 a maio de 2012. Para as modelagens univariadas, incluindo as marginais das cópulas, foram comparados os modelos GARCH e EGARCH. Para cada modelo univariado, utilizamos as cópulas Normal, t-Student, Gumbel rotacionada e Joe-Clayton simetrizada, com isso totalizando 36 modelos comparados. Nas comparações do VaR e ES foram utilizados, respectivamente, o teste de Chritoffersen e o teste de Mcneil e Frey. Os principais resultados encontrados foram a superioridade de modelos que supõem erros com distribuição t-Student, assim como a identificação de mudança no comportamento dos parâmetros dinâmicos nos períodos de crise. / Measuring the risk of an investment is one of the most important steps in an investor's decision-making. With this in light, this study compared three estimation methods (traditional; by univariate analysis of portfolio returns; dynamic copulas and static copulas), of two risk measurements: Value at Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES). Such estimated measures are performed for a portfolio composed by the BOVESPA and S&P500 indexes, ranging from January 1998 to May 2012. For univariate modelling (including copulas marginals), the GARCH and EGARCH models were compared,. Regarding copulas, we use Normal, t-Student, rotated Gumbel and symmetric Joe-Clayton, leading to a total of 36 models being compared. For the comparison of VaR and ES were used, respectively, the Christoffersen test, and the Mcneil and Frey test. The main results found were the superiority of models assuming the t-Student distributed errors, as well as the identification of a change in the behaviour of dynamic parameters in periods of crisis.

nÃo hà / O trabalho tem como objetivo avaliar a dinÃmica da evoluÃÃo no valor das empresas, descrita pelas variÃveis Equity e Entreprise Value, das Companhias de capital aberto do setor de mineraÃÃo e siderurgia listadas na BOVESPA, entre janeiro de 2002 a dezembro de 2012, o qual contribui com a literatura ao utilizar como ferramenta de anÃlise um modelo autoregressivo com valor limite endÃgeno, e ajuda a captar se existe mudanÃa de padrÃo do valor das empresas ante as alteraÃÃes no cenÃrio e na polÃtica econÃmica, para prever um valor mais justo das empresas no futuro, uma vez que sua utilizaÃÃo à de extrema importÃncia para tomada de decisÃes empresariais e outras finalidades. Indicadores quantitativos para essas duas variÃveis foram calculados e a metodologia permitiu investigar, simultaneamente, a linearidade e estacionaridade de suas trajetÃrias. Os resultados mostraram, atravÃs das variÃveis selecionadas, ocorreram trÃs situaÃÃes diferentes entre as empresas: i) dinÃmicas lineares, nÃo estacionaridade para o Equity e Enterprise Value, atinge a Ferbasa e Equity a Vale; porÃm o Enterprise Value da Vale segue uma dinÃmica estacionÃria; ii) dinÃmicas nÃo lineares, o que segue uma mudanÃa de padrÃo nas variÃveis selecionadas, para Equity e o Enterprise Value, adicionalmente, nÃo estacionaridade nos dois regimes, para o Equity e Enterprise Value, atingem a Gerdau e Usiminas, e iii) dinÃmica nÃo linear para o Equity e dinÃmica linear para o Enterprise Value para a companhia SiderÃrgica Nacional, que adicionalmente, apresenta para o Equity com raiz unitÃria parcial e globalmente estacionÃria, e para o Enterprise Value apresenta nÃo estacionaridade. / The study aims to evaluate the dynamics of evolution of corporate value; described by the variables Equity and Enterprise Value, the publicly traded companies in the mining and steel sector listed on the BOVESPA, between January 2002 and December 2012, which contributes with to the literature to use as a tool to analyze an autoregressive model with endogenous threshold value, and helps to capture changes on the default value of the companies placed on our current scenario and economic policy, to provide a more fair value of companies in the future since their use is of utmost importance to business decision-making and other purposes. Quantitative indicators for these two variables were calculated and the methodology allowed to investigate both the linearity and stationarity of their trajectories. The results showed, through the selected variables, three different situations among the selected companies: i) linear dynamics, non-stationarity for Equity and Enterprise Value, reaches Ferbasa and Equity the Vale; but the Enterprise Value of the Vale follows a stationary dynamics;ii) non-linear dynamics, which follows a pattern change in selected variables for Equity and Enterprise Value additionally non-stationarity in the two regimes, for Equity and Enterprise Value reaches Gerdau and Usiminas; and iii) non-linear dynamic for Equity and linear for the Enterprise Value for the National Steel Company, which additionally presents for Equity partial and globally stationary unit root, dynamic and Enterprise Value presents non-stationarity.

A mensuração do risco de um investimento é uma das mais importantes etapas para a tomada de decisão de um investidor. Em virtude disto, este trabalho comparou três métodos de estimação (tradicional, através da analise univariada dos retornos do portfólio; cópulas estáticas e cópulas dinâmicas) de duas medidas de risco: Value at Risk (VaR) e Expected Shortfall (ES). Tais medidas foram estimadas para o portfólio composto pelos índices BOVESPA e S&P500 no período de janeiro de 1998 a maio de 2012. Para as modelagens univariadas, incluindo as marginais das cópulas, foram comparados os modelos GARCH e EGARCH. Para cada modelo univariado, utilizamos as cópulas Normal, t-Student, Gumbel rotacionada e Joe-Clayton simetrizada, com isso totalizando 36 modelos comparados. Nas comparações do VaR e ES foram utilizados, respectivamente, o teste de Chritoffersen e o teste de Mcneil e Frey. Os principais resultados encontrados foram a superioridade de modelos que supõem erros com distribuição t-Student, assim como a identificação de mudança no comportamento dos parâmetros dinâmicos nos períodos de crise. / Measuring the risk of an investment is one of the most important steps in an investor's decision-making. With this in light, this study compared three estimation methods (traditional; by univariate analysis of portfolio returns; dynamic copulas and static copulas), of two risk measurements: Value at Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES). Such estimated measures are performed for a portfolio composed by the BOVESPA and S&P500 indexes, ranging from January 1998 to May 2012. For univariate modelling (including copulas marginals), the GARCH and EGARCH models were compared,. Regarding copulas, we use Normal, t-Student, rotated Gumbel and symmetric Joe-Clayton, leading to a total of 36 models being compared. For the comparison of VaR and ES were used, respectively, the Christoffersen test, and the Mcneil and Frey test. The main results found were the superiority of models assuming the t-Student distributed errors, as well as the identification of a change in the behaviour of dynamic parameters in periods of crisis.

Please read the abstract in the section, 00front of this document / Dissertation (MSc)--University of Pretoria, 2008. / Animal and Wildlife Sciences / MSc / Unrestricted

The ability to transfer knowledge to novel contexts is one of the most important goals that our educational institutions must achieve. Motivation is one of the many factors that influence students' learning, performance, and their ability to transfer. However, not many researchers have studied the role of motivation in transfer keeping in view Eccles' Subjective task value theory. The present study explored the role of subjective values students associate with cognitive development theories they studied in an educational psychology course, in their ability to transfer knowledge learned in lecture to a novel context. Participants were 45 college students in an educational psychology course. They were asked to complete the subjective task value instrument, the fundamental knowledge test and the transfer test. Based on the literature, it is hypothesized that if the subjective value of a task has a role to play in the level of transfer that learners display, there will be a strong correlation between their scores on the subjective task value instrument and transfer test. Nevertheless, the results showed that there is no relationship between learners' value beliefs and their ability to transfer. However, the results showed a significant relationship between fundamental understanding and transfer. Future research taking the nature of instruction into account and that test the learners for transfer multiple times during a single semester would perhaps give us a much clearer picture of the determinants of the learners' failure to transfer.

The real estate appraisal within the banking industry is a specific discipline. Hence, there is a lack of theoretical background, especially in the Czech language. The aim of this work has two main parts. Firstly, there are analysed potential valuation bases and concrete approaches which are offered. Secondly, it is focused on practical determination the market value and the collateral value of the real property, regarding the current approaches using in the Czech banking industry.

This diploma thesis covers value investing process defined by adherents of Graham and Dodd. Theoretical aspects of this principle are explained with special focus devoted to determination of intrinsic value using three step process utilizing information from value of assets, earnings power value and value of growth. We pay attention to strategic considerations that should facilitate an analyst to more reliable conclusions. Using European markets data, analytical part of this work examines return of mechanically compiled value and growth portfolios and presence of value premium. We than analyze return of existing value portfolios.