Thesis (S.M.)--Joint Program in Applied Ocean Physics and Engineering (Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Ocean Engineering; and the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution), 1998. / Includes bibliographic references (p. 77-83). / This thesis presents an investigation of the influence of surface waves on momentum exchange. A quantitative comparison of direct covariance friction velocity measurements to bulk aerodynamic and inertial dissipation estimates indicates that both indirect methods systematically underestimate the momentum flux into developing seas. To account for wave-induced processes and yield improved flux estimates, modifications to the traditional flux parameterizations are explored. Modification to the bulk aerodynamic method involves incorporating sea state dependence into the roughness length calculation. For the inertial dissipation method, a new parameterization for the dimensionless dissipation rate is proposed. The modifications lead to improved momentum flux estimates for both methods. / by Michiko J. Martin. / S.M.

The El Niño – Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has far-reaching impacts across the globe and provides the most reliable source of seasonal to interannual climate prediction over North America. Though numerous studies have discussed the impacts of ENSO teleconnections on North America during boreal winter, it is becoming more and more apparent that the regional impacts of ENSO teleconnections are highly sensitive to the seasonal evolution of ENSO events. Also, the significant impacts of ENSO are not limited to the boreal winter seasons. To address these knowledge gaps, this thesis examines the seasonal dependence of ENSO teleconnections and impacts on North American surface climate, focusing on two examples. Chapter 1 examines the relationship between El Niño – California winter precipitation. Results show that the probability of the anomalous statewide-wetness increases as El Niño intensity increases. Also, the influences of El Niño on California winter precipitation are statistically significant in late winter (Feb-Apr), but not in early winter even though that is when El Niño usually reaches its peak intensity. Chapter 2 further investigates why the strong 2015/16 El Niño failed to bring above normal winter precipitation to California, focusing on the role of westward shifted equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) based on two reasons: the maximum equatorial Pacific SSTAs was located westward during the 2015/16 winter compared to those during the 1982/83 and 1997/98 winters, both of which brought extremely wet late winters to California. Also, the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) forecasts overestimated the eastern tropical Pacific SSTAs and California precipitation in the 2015/16 late winter, compared to observations. The Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM) experiments suggested that the SST forecast error in NMME contributed partially to the wet bias in California precipitation forecast in the 2015/16 late winter. However, the atmospheric internal variability could have also played a large role in the dry California winter during the event. ENSO also exerts significant impacts on agricultural production over the Midwest during boreal summer. Chapter 3 examines the physical processes of the ENSO summer teleconnection, focusing on the summer when a La Niña is either transitioning from an earlier El Niño winter or persisting from an existing La Niña winter. The results demonstrate that the impacts are most significant during the summer when El Niño is transitioning to La Niña compared to that when La Niña is persisting, even though both can loosely be defined as developing La Niña summer. During the transitioning summer, both the decaying El Niño and the developing La Niña induce suppressed deep convection over the tropical Pacific and thereby the corresponding Rossby wave propagations toward North America, resulting in a statistically significant anomalous anticyclone over northeastern North America and, therefore, a robust warming signal over the Midwest. These features are unique to the developing La Niña transitioning from El Niño, but not the persistent La Niña. In Chapter 4, we further evaluate the performance of NCAR CAM5 forced with historical SSTA in terms of the La Niña summer teleconnections. Though the model ensemble mean well reproduces the features in the preceding El Niño/La Niña winters, the model ensemble mean has very limited skill in simulating the tropical convection and extratropical teleconnections during both the transitioning and persisting summers. The weak responses in the model ensemble mean are attributed to large variability in both the tropical precipitation, especially over the western Pacific, and atmospheric circulation during summer season. This thesis synthesizes the physical processes and assessments of climate models in different seasons to establish the sensitivity of regional climate to the seasonal dependence of ENSO teleconnections. We demonstrate that the strongest impacts of ENSO on North American regional climate might not be necessarily simultaneous with maximum tropical Pacific SST anomalies. We also emphasize the importance of the multi-year ENSO evolutions when addressing the seasonal impacts on North American summertime climate. The findings in this thesis could benefit the improvement of seasonal hydroclimate forecasting skills in the future.

The atmospheric response to the oceanic forcing in the eastern Pacific along the northern equatorial sea surface temperature (SST) front is investigated in terms of sensible and latent heat flux during the 6-month period 28 July 1999 through 27 January 2000. Of particular interest is the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) response to oceanic Tropical Instability Waves (TIWs) that distort the SST front during May through January in normal years. In previous studies, time series of boundary layer properties clearly show the influence of TIWs but the relationship to spatial patterns of SST and wind stress has been inferred only from sparse in situ data. In this study, satellite observations are used to composite in situ data from moorings to compensate for the lack of a spatially dense mooring array. The variability in the position of the SST front caused by propagating TIWs enables fixed mooring locations to measure the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) response from a large range of locations relative to the front. The satellite data enable determination of the precise location of the mooring relative to the front. The advantage of this strategy is the recurring measurement of the ABL response to the SST front over the six month period considered here. The results indicate that the TIW-induced perturbations of sensible and latent heat flux are spatially shifted in phase towards the east relative to the perturbations of SST. The maximum fluxes are not centered directly over the warmest water, but are shifted towards the portion of the frontal region where a disequilibrium boundary layer is expected due to the advection of colder air from the equatorial region. The changes of sensible and latent heat fluxes across the SST front have magnitudes of about 11 Wm⁻² and 126 Wm⁻², respectively. The sensible and latent heat flux patterns are interpreted in two complementary ways: (1) as an atmospheric response to the change of oceanic forcing as air flows across the SST front; and (2) as the atmospheric response to westward propagating TIWs along the SST front. / Graduation date: 2001

Intraseasonal oscillations (ISOs) are important elements of the tropical climate with time-scales of 20-80 day. The ISO is poorly simulated and predicted by numerical models. This work presents a joint diagnostic and modeling study of the ISO that examines the hypothesis that local coupling between the ocean and the atmosphere is essential to the existence and evolution of the ISO in the Indo-Pacific warm pool region. Low-level moistening during the transition phase preconditions the atmosphere for deep convection. The vertical structure of ISO from the ECMWF coupled model during different phases of the oscillation as well as the skill of the model in simulating the processes that occur during the transition phase were studied. The forecast skill of the vertical structure associated with the ISO is greater for winter than for summer events. Predictability of the convective period is poor when initialized before the transitional phase. When initialized within the transition period including lower tropospheric moistening, predictability increases substantially, although the model parameterizations appears to trigger convection quickly without allowing an adequate buildup of CAPE during the transition. The model tends to simulate a more stable atmosphere compared to data, limiting the production of deep convective events. Two different one-dimensional coupled models are used to analyze the role of local ocean-atmosphere coupling in generating ISO. The ocean component is a one-dimensional mixed layer model. In the first model the atmospheric component corresponds to the SCCM. Results suggest that convection in the model tends to be "overactive," inhibiting development of lower frequency oscillations in the atmosphere. In the second case, the atmospheric component is a semi-empirical model that allows reproducing the coupled ISO over long integration periods including only local mechanisms. In the semi-empirical scheme the rate of change of atmospheric variables is statistically related to changes in SST. The stable state of this model is a quasi-periodic oscillation with a time scale between 25 and 80 days that matches well the observed ISO. Results suggest that the period of the oscillation depends on the characteristics of the ocean mixed layer, with a higher frequency oscillation for a shallow mixed layer.

This thesis investigates possible dynamical pathways through which variability in the extra-tropical Pacific Ocean influences decadal fluctuations of tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures (SST). Specifically, we examine the hypothesis that low-frequency changes in the Pacific‟s meridional subtropical cells (STCs), which transport subsurface water masses equatorward from the extra-tropical into the tropical Pacific upwelling system, modulate decadal variations of the equatorial SST. The relationship between the STCs and equatorial Pacific SST anomalies is explored statistically using the monthly hindcast output from the Ocean General Circulation Model (OGCM) for the Earth Simulator (OFES). We find that decadal variability of the subsurface heat transport of the southern branch of the STC is more closely correlated (R = -0.74) with eastern equatorial SST anomalies on timescales longer than 8 years. The northern branch of the STC is overall not well correlated with equatorial SSTa; however, we find that in the period before the 1976 climate shift, the northern cell is more strongly and significantly correlated with equatorial SSTa (R = -0.89, >99%), while the southern cell is not (R = -0.32). The physical significance of these findings remain unclear and requires isolating mechanisms that could lead to an asymmetry in the role of the northern and southern STC in modulating eastern equatorial SSTa during different states of the Pacific climate. This will be a critical step to attribute physical significance to the statistical changes observed before and after the 1976 climate shift.

Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of Hawaii at Manoa, 2005. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 181-193).

Thesis (M.S.)--Mississippi State University. Department of Computational Engineering. / Title from title screen. Includes bibliographical references.

Thesis (Ph. D.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology and Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution. / Includes bibliographical references (p. 186-188).

The laser geodetic satellites Lageos and Starlette exhibit residual orbital motion with an unexplained seasonal component. In addition, recognized polar motion excitation sources do not account for a large portion of observed polar motion. It is hypothesized that air and ocean mass redistribution is the primary source of seasonal perturbations in satellite motion, and that wind-driven ocean mass redistribution is a major source for polar motion excitation. Average monthly variations in zonal spherical harmonic geopotential coefficients are estimated from NMC air pressure for 1958 through 1973, and from variations in continental water storage predicted by a global hydrologic model. These coefficients are used to predict average monthly perturbations in the longitude of the ascending node ([Omega]) for Lageos and Starlette, and in the eccentricity vector ([Psi]) for Starlette. WMO monthly air pressures and twice-daily Navy sea level pressures are used to predict time series of [Omega] and [Psi] perturbations for Lageos during 1976 through 1985, and for Starlette during 1980 through 1983. In addition, the Hellerman and Rosenstein wind stress field for world oceans and the Gill-Niiler bottom pressure equation are used to estimate annual and semi-annual ocean mass redistribution, and to predict polar motion excitation vectors and Lageos [Omega] perturbations. Comparison of predicted [Omega] and [Psi] perturbations with observed Lageos and Starlette behavior indicate that air pressure may be responsible for much of the unmodeled seasonal variation in the Earth's geopotential. In contrast, the water storage contribution is very small. Year-to-year variability in the observed Lageos and Starlette [Omega] times series is well matched by predicted perturbations. Even after the removal of annual and semi-annual components, significant coherence remains between predicted and observed [Omega] time series for both Lageos and Starlette at periods of less than one year. Comparison of predicted polar motion with ILS observations suggest that the effect of ocean mass redistribution is significant, and second only to air pressure in magnitude. Lageos [Omega] perturbations predicted from ocean mass redistribution indicate that non-isostatic sea level fluctuations should be readily observable by satellite laser ranging. / text

Thesis (M.S.)--University of Hawaii at Manoa, 2005. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 114-129). / xii, 129 leaves, bound ill. 29 cm