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No description available.

Two problems in oceanic/atmospheric modelling are examined in this thesis. In the first problem the release of fresh water from a midlatitude estuary to the continental shelf is modelled numerically as a Rossby adjustment problem using a primitive equation model. As the initial salinity front is relaxed, a first baroclinic mode Kelvin wave propagates into the estuary, while along the continental shelf, the disturbance travels in the direction of coastally trapped waves but with a relatively slow propagation speed. When a submarine canyon extends offshore from the estuary, the joint effect of baroclinicity and bottom relief provides forcing for barotropic flow. The disturbance now propagates along the shelf at the first coastally trapped wave mode phase speed, and the shelf circulation is significantly more energetic and barotropic than in the case without the canyon. For both the experiments with and without a canyon an anticyclonic circulation is formed off the mouth of the estuary, generated by the surface outflow and deeper inflow over changing bottom topography. As the deeper inflow encounters shallower depth, the column of fluid is vertically compressed, thereby spinning up anticyclonically due to the conservation of potential vorticity. This feature is in qualitative agreement with the Tully eddy observed off Juan de Fuca Strait. A study of the reverse estuary (where the estuarine water is denser than the oceanic water) shows that this configuration has more potential energy available for conversion to kinetic energy than the normal estuary. Bass Strait may be considered as a possible reverse estuary source for the generation of coastally trapped waves. Model solutions are compared with field observations in the Bass Strait region and with the results of the Australian Coastal Experiment. The effects of a wider shelf and a wider estuary are examined by two more experiments. For the wider shelf, the resulting baroclinic flow is similar to that of the other runs, although the barotropic flow is weaker. The wide estuary model proves to be the most dynamic of all, with the intensified anticyclonic circulation now extending well into the estuary. In the second problem the effect of the horizontal structure of midlatitude oceanic heating on the stationary atmospheric response is examined by means of a continuously stratified model and a simple two level model, both in the quasigeostrophic β-plane approximation. Solutions are obtained for three non-periodic zonal heating structures (line source, segmented cosine, and segmented sine). Little difference is observed between the solutions for these two different models (continuously stratified and two level). There are two cases which emerge in obtaining analytic solutions. In case 1, for large meridional wavenumbers, there exists a large local response and a constant downstream response. In case 2, for small meridional wavenumbers, the far field response is now sinusoidal. A critical wavenumber separating these two cases is obtained. The effect of oceanic heating on the atmosphere over the Kuroshio region is examined in an attempt to explain the large correlations observed between winter Kuroshio oceanic heat flux anomalies, and the winter atmospheric surface pressure and 500 & 700 mb geopotential heights, both upstream and downstream of the heating region. In both models, the response is consistent with the observed correlations. When western North Pacific heating and eastern North Pacific cooling are introduced into the models, a large low pressure response is observed over the central North Pacific. This feature is in excellent agreement with the observed correlations. A time dependent, periodic, two level model (with and without surface friction) is also introduced in order to study the transient atmospheric response to oceanic heating. The height at which the thermodynamic equation is applied is found to be crucial in determining the response of this model. When the heating is entered into the model near to the surface, unstable modes are prevalent sooner than they would be when the heat forcing is applied at a higher level. As in the steady state models, two cases dependent on the meridional wavenumber ɭ emerge in the analysis. For small scale meridional heating structures (large ɭ), the response consists of an upper level high and a lower level low which propagate eastward with time. For large scale meridional heating structures (small ɭ) the response essentially consists of a wavenumber 3-4 perturbation superimposed on the solution for large ɭ. / Science, Faculty of / Mathematics, Department of / Graduate

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Thesis. 1977. Ph.D.--Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Dept. of Earth and Planetary Sciences. / Microfiche copy available in Archives and Science. / Vita. / Bibliography : leaves 198-204. / Ph.D.

Thesis (MSc)--Stellenbosch University, 2003. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: The oceanic and meteorological systems that characterize the southern African coastline are well-documented. In this thesis, these characteristics have been considered in conjunction with the analysis of a unique set of sea surface temperature (SST) data, obtained from measuring sites around the southern African coast, to determine the variability of SSTs in the immediate coastal region of southern Africa, and to demonstrate how this variability impacts on marinerelated economic activities. As part of the analysis process, various statistical techniques have been applied to the data over different time periods to establish the extent of the spatial variability of SSTs along the southern African coastline. From the results it has been possible to identify three distinctly different 'climatological' regions around the southern African coast; viz a cooler west coast region with a low annual and seasonal SST variability and a higher variability from day-ta-day, a warmer east coast region with a higher annual and seasonal SST variability and a lower variability from day-ta-day; and a temperate south coast region with a highly erratic annual, seasonal and day-ta-day SST variability. Furthermore, it has been possible to identify, albeit small, the existence of a high and a low frequency signal of 12-15 days and 40-60 days, respectively, in the three different regions. There is also evidence of the periodic occurrence of anomalously warm and cold SST events in all three regions, and a probability of <1.1% of a day-ta-day SST anomaly of >3°C (+3°C or- 3°C) occurring anywhere along the southern African coastline. The general causes of SST change have been discussed within the context of the heat budget equation. Furthermore, the effects of the variability of SST on the climate and marine life around southern Africa and the resulting impact on the various marine-related economic activities (such as aquaculture, air-sea rescue and power stations) have been identified, and shown to be both positive and negative.Finally, it should be noted, that economic infonnation relating to marine activities is closely guarded due to inter-industry competition. It has therefore been difficult to quantify the exact impact of the effects of SST variability on these activities. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die oseaniese en weerkundige stelsels wat die kuslyn van suidelike Afrika kenmerk is goed gedokumenteer. Die stelselkenmerke is in hierdie verhandeling ondersoek aan die hand van 'n unieke datastel van seeoppervlaktemperature (SST) afkomstig van meetplekke aan die kus van suidelike Afrika, ten einde die veranderlikheid van SST in die onmiddelike kusomgewing van suidelike Afrika vas te stel, asook om te demonstreer hoe hierdie veranderlikheid inwerk op seeverwante ekonomiese aktiwiteite. As deel van die proses van analise is verskeie statistiese metodes gebruik om die data oor verskeie tydperke te ontleed ten einde die omvang van ruimtelike veranderlikheid van SSTs langs die kus van suidelike Afrika te bepaal. Uit die resultate was dit moontlik om drie duidelike onderskeibare 'klimatologiese' streke aan die kus van suidelike Afrika te identifiseer; te wete 'n koeler weskusstreek met 'n lae jaarlikse en seisoenale SST-veranderlikheid en hoër dag-tot-dag veranderlikheid, 'n warmer ooskusstreek met 'n hoër jaarlikse en seisoenale SST-veranderlikheid en laer dag-tot-dag verandelikheid; asook 'n gematigde suidkusstreek met 'n hoogs wisselvallige jaarlikse, seisoenale en dag-totdag SST-veranderlikheid. Dit was verder moontlik om, alhoewel klein, die bestaan van lae en hoë frekwensie seine van 12-15 dae en 40-60 dae onderskeidelik in die drie streke te identifiseer. Daar is ook tekens van die periodieke voorkoms van anomale warm en koue SSTgebeurtenisse in al drie streke en 'n waarskynlikheid van <1.1% van die voorkoms van 'n dagtot- dag SST-anomaliteit van >3°C (+3°C of -3°G) op enige plek langs die suider Afrikaanse kuslyn. Die algemene oorsake van veranderings in SST is bespreek binne die konteks van die formule vir die behoud van hitte-energie. Die invloed van SST-veranderlikheid op die klimaat en die seelewe om suidelike Afrika en die gevolglike effek op mariene-verwante ekonomiese aktiwiteite (soos akwakultuur, lug-see-redding en kragstasies) is ook geïdentifiseer en is aangetoon om beide positief en negatief te wees Ten laaste dien dit gemeld te word dat ekonomiese inligting met betrekking tot mariene aktiwitweite goed bewaar word as gevolg van kompetisie in die bedryf. Dit was derhalwe moeilik om die presiese impak van die gevolge van SST-veranderlikheid op sodanige aktiwiteite te kwantifiseer.

published_or_final_version / Earth Sciences / Doctoral / Doctor of Philosophy

Measurements of temperature and salinity in the upper 5 m of the ocean along the equator showed cool fresh anomalies due to rain showers. The measurements were made between 140 W and 110 W during April 1987, an El Nino year. The eastern equatorial Pacific was characterized by weak winds (3 m/s average), high rainfall (1.6 cm/day), and warm surface temperatures (28.4 C). Measurements of temperature were made from a catamaran float at 0.5 and 1 m depth and at 5 m depth from the ship. Salinity was measured at a depth of 1 m from the float and 5 m from the ship. The float was towed off of the port side of the ship outside of the bow wake. Near-surface low temperature and low salinity anomalies due to cool rainfall were encountered. These anomalies were on average cool and fresh by 0.02 C and 0.2 PSTJ with maximum values of 0.5 C and 1.6 PSU. The horizontal extent of the anomalies ranged from less than 10 to more than 100 km. Rainfall depths estimated from salt conservation agreed roughly with shipboard rain-gauge measurements. The characteristic lifetime of the anomalies, estimated from the ratio of the average rain depth to average rain rate, was about 10 hrs. Rainfall temperatures were computed from the T-S mixing curves for three large, newly-formed anomalies. The average rainfall temperature was 21 C. Ocean buoyancy fluxes estimated for intense rain showers were an order of magnitude larger than the fluxes in the absence of rain. / Graduation date: 1992 / Best scan available for p.15-16, 35. Original is a black and white photocopy.

"The main objective of this study is to examine the influence of global SSTAs [sea surface temperature anomalies] on rainfall over eastern Africa (Fig. 1) using Florida State University T21 Global Spectral Model (FSUT21GSM) during the southern hemisphere summer of 1982 (wet year) and 1983 (dry year) (Fig. 2)"--Leaf 3. / Typescript. / "Summer Semester, 1991." / "Submitted to the Department of Meteorology in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science." / Advisor: T. N. Krishnamurti, Professor Directing Thesis. / Includes bibliographical references.

As a global climate phenomenon, the El Ni??o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) involves the coupling of the ocean and the atmosphere. Most climate prediction studies have, by far, only investigated the teleconnections between global climatic anomalies and the ???surface??? predictors of ENSO. The prediction models resulting from these studies have generally suffered from inadequate, if not the lack of, skill across the so-called boreal ???spring barrier???. This is illustrated in the first part of this thesis where the applicability of the SOI phase for long-lead rainfall projections in Australia is discussed. With the increasing availability of subsurface ocean temperature data, the characteristics of the Pacific Ocean???s heat content and its role in ENSO are now better understood. The second part of this thesis investigated the predictability of ENSO using the thermocline as a predictor. While the persistence and SST-based ENSO hindcasts dropped in skill across the spring barrier, the thermocline-based hindcasts remained skillful even up to a lag of eighteen months. Continuing on the favorable results of ENSO prediction, the third part of this thesis extended the use of the thermocline in the prediction of Australia???s rainfall and streamflow. When compared to models that use ???surface??? predictors, the model that incorporated thermocline information resulted in more skillful projections of rainfall and streamflow especially at long lead-times. More importantly, significant increases in skill of autumn and winter projections demonstrate the ability of the subsurface ocean to retain some climatic memory across the predictability barrier. This resilience can be attributed to the high persistence of the ocean heat content during the first half of the year. Based on weighting, the model averaging exercise also affirmed the superiority of the ???subsurface??? model over the ???surface??? models in terms of streamflow projections. The encouraging findings of this study could have far-reaching implications not only to the science of ENSO prediction but also to the more pragmatic realm of hydrologic forecasting. What this study has demonstrated is an alternative predictor that is suitable for the long range forecasting of ENSO, rainfall and streamflow. With better hydrologic forecasting comes significant improvement in the management of reservoirs which eventually leads to an increase in the reliability and sufficiency of water supply provision.