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Coral bleaching and mortality caused by ocean warming is the largest threaten to modern coral reefs. Understanding the change and acclimatization of coral communities to warming temperature is urgent for management and conservation. Using transect photo-surveys and monitoring of natural substratum quadrats with fluorescence technique, we compare the community structure and recruitment of corals between a reef artificially heated by thermal outfall of a nuclear power plant for more than 25 years (Outlet) and a nearby natural reef (Hobihu) in Nanwan Bay, southern Taiwan. Both reefs are influenced by intermittent upwelling induced by internal wave. Abundance of hard corals in Outlet was significant higher than in Hobihu, while soft corals showed an opposite pattern. Coverages of corals such as Montipora spp., Porites spp., Galaxea spp. and Favia spp. were significant higher, but Seriatopora spp. and Stylophora spp. were significant lower in Outlet than in Hobihu. Coral recruitment rates were higher in Hobihu than in Outlet with Hobihu having more Pocilloporidae recruits while Outlet having more Euphylliidae, majorly Galaxea recruits. Coral recruitment rates and their survivorship were significant higher in spring/summer season than in autumn/winter season. These results suggest that elevated seawater temperature with other contrasting environmental conditions (different exposure and current) may change the structure of coral community by influencing differently on various life stages. Massive and encrusting corals may be more resilient to ocean warming.

The successful completion of the early developmental stages in organisms with complex life cycles is crucial to the persistence of a species both at the local and global scale. Thus changes in the abiotic environment experienced during larval and early benthic development can have profound effects on the development and ultimately dynamics of populations of marine invertebrates. The effects of elevated temperature and pCO2 in line with future predictions of anthropogenic climate change, ocean warming and ocean acidification (OA), on the survivorship and growth during early development of marine invertebrates is beginning to be understood, yet the underlying physiological ontogeny driving such changes, and the more subtle effects on physiological performance of climate change drivers, has yet to be distinguished. Therefore the aim of the present study is to investigate the effects of elevated temperature and pCO2 on the developmental eco-physiology of an economically and ecologically important species, the European lobster, Homarus gammarus, to characterise the underlying physiological responses of early development behind responses of survival and growth. The main findings relate to how changing optimal temperature conditions during larval development results in changes in metabolic performance and therefore aerobic scope, ultimately driving survival and growth. Larval stages which exhibit narrower aerobic scope were also sensitive to elevated pCO2 evident as reduced survival, changes to energetic demands and organic content, and reduced calcification. Furthermore, this is the first attempt to characterise the physiological response of early benthic juveniles to climate change drivers. Early benthic juveniles are quite different in underlying physiology to later juveniles and adults, cumulating in this stage being energy limited. Such limitations are expressed as a reduction in aerobic scope in relation to elevated temperature and pCO2, and associated sensitiveness to elevated pCO2 resulting in increased moult related mortalities and the breakdown of haemolymph buffering capacity under combinations of elevated temperature and pCO2. Throughout early development, elevated temperature and pCO2, through underlying physiological responses, may have dramatic effects on the geographic range and successful development of H. gammarus.

Sedimentation and ocean warming are two major anthropogenic stressors that directly affect coral recruitment and recovery. Many coral-dominated reefs have undergone phase shifts becoming macroalgae-dominated because of the coral population’s inability to tolerate these increasing stressors. Predicting these phase shifts requires a determination of the relative susceptibility of coral and macroalgae to these stressors. The objective of this study was to quantitatively assess the synergistic effects of sedimentation and elevated temperature on the survival and growth of Montastraea cavernosa newly settled coral juveniles, and fragments of the macroalgae, Dictyota ciliolata. A crossed experimental design tested the two temperatures and four sedimentation levels. After 12 weeks, a 2°C increase in temperature did not significantly affect survival of the M. cavernosa juveniles or fragments of D. ciliolata. Montastraea cavernosa juvenile survival was negatively affected by a decrease in sediment. Dictyota ciliolata survival was highly sensitive to the increase in sedimentation. The survival and growth of both species appeared to be susceptible to an increase in sedimentation, but in opposite ways. This study demonstrates that both M. cavernosa juveniles and D. ciliolata fragments may be more vulnerable to light caused by changes in turbidity rather than temperature.

As ocean temperatures continue to rise, the effect of temperature on marine organisms becomes highly relevant. The Red Sea is the warmest sea and is rapidly warming with current surface temperatures (28 – 34 °C) already exceeding those of most tropical systems. This has major consequences for organisms that may already find themselves at their thermal limits. The aim of this project was to define the thermal limits and thresholds of certain Red Sea species. Firstly, to better understand the thermal regimes of the Red Sea, we looked at decadal trends in maximum sea surface temperature across the basin. Then, we tested the thermal capacities of Red Sea mangroves and zooplankton, two key ecological groups, by performing thermal stress experiments in the laboratory. We found that the Red Sea basin is warming faster than the global average (0.17 °C decade-1), the thermal limit of mangrove propagules is between 33 and 35 °C, and the limits among the most common zooplankton groups range from 30 to 36 °C. This project gives us a better understanding of how organisms respond to extreme temperatures and how they may be affected in a future, warmer, ocean.

The Ob is the third largest Eurasian river supplying heat and freshwater to the Arctic Ocean. These inputs influence water salinity, ice coverage, ocean temperatures and ocean circulation, and ultimately the global climate system. Variability of Ob River flow on long time scales is poorly understood, however, because gaged flow records are short. Eleven tree-ring width chronologies of Pinus sibirica and Larix sibirica are developed from the floodplain of the Lower Ob River, analyzed for hydroclimatic signal and applied as predictors in a regression model to reconstruct 8-month average (December-July) discharge of the Ob River at Salekhard over the interval 1705-2012 (308 yrs). Correlation analysis suggests the signal for discharge comes through air temperature: high discharge and floodplain water levels favor cool growing-season air temperature, which limits tree growth for the sampled species at these high latitudes. The reconstruction model (R-2 = 0.31, 1937-2009 calibration period) is strongly supported by cross validation and analysis of residuals. Correlation of observed with reconstructed discharge improves with smoothing. The long-term reconstruction correlates significantly with a previous Ob River reconstruction from ring widths of trees outside the Ob River floodplain and extends that record by another century. Results suggest that large multi-decadal swings in discharge have occurred at irregular intervals, that variations in the 20th and 21st centuries have been within the envelope of natural variability of the past 3 centuries, and that discharge data for 1937-2009 underestimate both the variability and persistence of discharge in the last 3 centuries. The reconstruction gives ecologists, climatologists and water resource planners a long-term context for assessment of climate change impacts.

Diante do quadro atual de previsões de mudanças climáticas, estudos a respeito das possíveis respostas dos organismos a estas alterações são importantes. Com a finalidade de prever e verificar se estas serão de fato deletérias ou se os organismos são capazes de lidar com elas sem alterações na sua fisiologia, e consequentemente na estrutura do ambiente, E. brasiliensis foi utilizada como modelo para estudar possíveis impactos do aumento da temperatura e acidificação dos oceanos na sua fisiologia. Para isso, espécimes foram expostos a 9 possíveis combinações de temperatura (24ºC, 28ºC e 30ºC) e pH (8.0, 7.7 e 7.3) em diferentes intervalos de tempo (1, 3, 12, 24 e 48 h). Amostras de gônadas e fluido celomático foram coletadas para avaliar a expressão das proteínas de estresse HSP70, AIF-1 e p38-MAPK, e a variação no número e viabilidade dos celomócitos. Nossos resultados mostram que o modelo é sensibilizado pelas mudanças no ambiente, através da hiper-regulação das proteínas de estresse. O cenário considerado mais extremo (30°C + pH7.3) ocasionou a morte de 100% dos organismos após 24horas. E o segundo cenário mais severo (30°C + pH7.7) desencadeou o desenvolvimento de ulceração de pele. Os efeitos são mais pronunciados nos celomócitos e a acidificação da água parece ter efeitos antagônicos com a temperatura nos celomócitos e sinérgicos nas gônadas. Embora a resposta tenha sido sistêmica, o grau e a dinâmica foram distintos em relação às diferentes amostras e estresses. Podendo causar modificações na resposta imune dos organismos e consequentemente na sobrevivência da espécie a longo prazo. / Under the current Climate Change context, studies about the potential responses of the organisms to their changing environment are of extreme importance. Recent studies point out the synergy of temperature and ocean acidification altogether. In this study, we used the sea star E. brasiliensis to assess the physiological effects of rising temperature, seawater acidification and the interaction of both factors. Independent individuals (N=225) were exposed to 9 possible combinations of temperature (24ºC, 28ºC and 30ºC) and pH (8.0, 7.7 and 7.3), for 1, 3, 12, 24 and 48 h. We compared the stress produced by these treatments measuring the expression of heat shock proteins (HSP70), the production of the allograft inflammatory factor (AIF−1) and the activation of mitogen kinases (MAPKs) at both gonad and celomic fluid. Furthermore, we assessed the quantity and quality of coelomocytes. Our results demonstrated that E. brasiliensis is vulnerable to the interaction of temperature and acidification. All the stress proteins evaluated were upregulated. The extreme scenario (30°C + pH7.3) caused the death of 100% of organisms after 24 hours, while the second most severe scenario (30°C + pH7.7) triggered skin ulceration. Nevertheless, we found that water acidification produces antagonistic effects to the temperature in coelomocytes and synergistic effects in gonad cells. Furthermore, these effects were more pronounced in the coelomocytes than in the gonads. The systemic response found in this study suggest that the interactive effects of elevated temperatures in conjunction with ocean acidification may endanger the survival of this species, and it could compromise the ecosystem functioning at long term.

A major goal in conservation biology is to understand the effects of short and long term environmental change on organisms. Fishes are the most valuable marine resource, however very little is known about the synergistic effect of current ocean warming and acidification, and the role of body size and local adaptation on their resilience. There is growing evidence that increased environmental temperature correlates with a reduction in ectotherm body size, suggesting a universal response to warming. To investigate the potential advantage of small body size in fish resilience, I made intra- and inter-specific comparisons of dwarf- and normal-size cleaner gobies of the genus Elacatinus. I first tested the hypothesis that smaller body size would correlate with a wider thermal tolerance by using same-age but different-size gobies reared at 'common garden' conditions. By employing critical thermal methodology, I provided empirical evidence supporting thermal biology theories that predict wider thermal tolerance windows as body size shrinks. These results provided the motivation to examine the effect of body mass on digestive performance, an indicator of fitness. Only smaller fish increased digestive metabolic scope at higher temperatures, thus suggesting that temperature increase caused by global warming will favor smaller individuals. To investigate the role of local adaptation on resilience in climate change, I compared the responses to warming and acidification between latitudinally- and morphologically-distinct populations of the little skate Leucoraja erinacea, by focusing on the most vulnerable life stages, embryos and juveniles. Embryos maintained at common garden conditions showed countergradient variation in performance curves. In juvenile skates, post-exercise metabolic curves shifted performance optima, exhibiting thermal adaptation in the two populations examined. This suggests that as skates hatch and are able to thermoregulate, they can change their temperature optima to exploit local thermal environments. Lastly, temperature and acidification levels predicted by the end of the century may reduce fitness of the northern population of skates, thus increasing vulnerability to local extinction.

Diante do quadro atual de previsões de mudanças climáticas, estudos a respeito das possíveis respostas dos organismos a estas alterações são importantes. Com a finalidade de prever e verificar se estas serão de fato deletérias ou se os organismos são capazes de lidar com elas sem alterações na sua fisiologia, e consequentemente na estrutura do ambiente, E. brasiliensis foi utilizada como modelo para estudar possíveis impactos do aumento da temperatura e acidificação dos oceanos na sua fisiologia. Para isso, espécimes foram expostos a 9 possíveis combinações de temperatura (24ºC, 28ºC e 30ºC) e pH (8.0, 7.7 e 7.3) em diferentes intervalos de tempo (1, 3, 12, 24 e 48 h). Amostras de gônadas e fluido celomático foram coletadas para avaliar a expressão das proteínas de estresse HSP70, AIF-1 e p38-MAPK, e a variação no número e viabilidade dos celomócitos. Nossos resultados mostram que o modelo é sensibilizado pelas mudanças no ambiente, através da hiper-regulação das proteínas de estresse. O cenário considerado mais extremo (30°C + pH7.3) ocasionou a morte de 100% dos organismos após 24horas. E o segundo cenário mais severo (30°C + pH7.7) desencadeou o desenvolvimento de ulceração de pele. Os efeitos são mais pronunciados nos celomócitos e a acidificação da água parece ter efeitos antagônicos com a temperatura nos celomócitos e sinérgicos nas gônadas. Embora a resposta tenha sido sistêmica, o grau e a dinâmica foram distintos em relação às diferentes amostras e estresses. Podendo causar modificações na resposta imune dos organismos e consequentemente na sobrevivência da espécie a longo prazo. / Under the current Climate Change context, studies about the potential responses of the organisms to their changing environment are of extreme importance. Recent studies point out the synergy of temperature and ocean acidification altogether. In this study, we used the sea star E. brasiliensis to assess the physiological effects of rising temperature, seawater acidification and the interaction of both factors. Independent individuals (N=225) were exposed to 9 possible combinations of temperature (24ºC, 28ºC and 30ºC) and pH (8.0, 7.7 and 7.3), for 1, 3, 12, 24 and 48 h. We compared the stress produced by these treatments measuring the expression of heat shock proteins (HSP70), the production of the allograft inflammatory factor (AIF−1) and the activation of mitogen kinases (MAPKs) at both gonad and celomic fluid. Furthermore, we assessed the quantity and quality of coelomocytes. Our results demonstrated that E. brasiliensis is vulnerable to the interaction of temperature and acidification. All the stress proteins evaluated were upregulated. The extreme scenario (30°C + pH7.3) caused the death of 100% of organisms after 24 hours, while the second most severe scenario (30°C + pH7.7) triggered skin ulceration. Nevertheless, we found that water acidification produces antagonistic effects to the temperature in coelomocytes and synergistic effects in gonad cells. Furthermore, these effects were more pronounced in the coelomocytes than in the gonads. The systemic response found in this study suggest that the interactive effects of elevated temperatures in conjunction with ocean acidification may endanger the survival of this species, and it could compromise the ecosystem functioning at long term.

Sea level rise (SLR) threatens coastal communities, infrastructure, and ecosystems. Worldwide, stakeholders critically depend on SLR projections with the associated uncertainty for risk assessments, decision-making and coastal planning. Recent research suggests that the Antarctic ice sheet mass loss during the 21st century may contribute up to an additional one meter of global SLR by year 2100. While uncertainty still exists, this value would double the ‘likely’ (> 66% probability) range of global SLR (0.52-0.98 m) by the year 2100, as found by Chapter 13 on Sea Level Change in the Fifth Assessment Report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Here, we present three studies that assess mechanisms relevant to 21st century local, regional, and global SLR. Appendix A examines the effect of large-scale oceanic and atmospheric circulation variability on extreme sea levels along the East Coast of North America. Appendices B and C analyze ocean warming on the Antarctic shelf and its implications for future ice shelf basal melt and Antarctic Ice Sheet mass loss. These studies will contribute to more accurate projections of local, regional, and global SLR. In Appendix A, we analyze long-term tide gauge records from the North American eastern seaboard and find an extreme SLR event during 2009-2010. Within this two-year period, coastal sea levels spiked between Montauk, New York and Southern Canada by up to 128 mm. This two-year spike is unprecedented in the tide gauge record and found to be a 1-in-850 year event. We show that a 30% reduction in strength of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and a strong negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index caused the extreme SLR event. Climate models project that the AMOC will weaken and NAO variability will remain high over the 21st century. Consequently, extreme SLR events on the Northeast Coast could become more frequent during the 21st century in response to climate change and SLR. In Appendix B, we use a fine-resolution global climate model (GFDL CM2.6) that resolves an eddying ocean. With this state-of-the-art coupled model, we quantify the mechanisms contributing to ocean warming on the Antarctic continental shelf in an idealized experiment of doubling of the atmospheric CO2 concentration. The results show that the CO2 forcing leads to the shelf region warming both in the upper 100 m ocean and at depths near the sea floor. These warming patterns are controlled by different mechanisms. In the upper 100 m, the heat anomalies are primarily controlled by increased heat transport into the shelf region associated with the warmer near-surface waters from lower latitudes. Below 100 m, the heat anomalies develop due to increased onshore intrusions of relatively warm Circumpolar Deep Water and reduced vertical mixing of heat in the water column. A complete heat budget analysis is performed for the Antarctic shelf region as well as for six subdomains and three depth ranges (0-100 m, 100-700 m, and 700-1000 m). The results show that certain regions of the Antarctic shelf are more susceptible to large CO2-forced warming. These findings have implications for future Antarctic Ice Sheet mass loss and SLR, and can provide more detailed and accurate ocean boundary conditions for dynamical ice sheet models. In Appendix C, we use CM2.6 to examine the connections among ocean freshening and the magnitude and location of ocean warming on the Antarctic shelf. We find that CO2 forcing freshens the Antarctic shelf seas via increases in local precipitation, sea ice loss, liquid runoff, and iceberg calving. The freshening induces three heat budget-relevant responses: (1) reduced vertical mixing; (2) strengthening of the Antarctic Slope Front (ASF); and (3) increased eddy kinetic energy (EKE) near the ASF. First, heat can accumulate at depth (100-1000 m) as freshening increases the vertical stratification on the shelf and reduces upward mixing of heat associated with diffusion and convective processes. Second, freshening near the shelf break strengthens the ASF by increasing the lateral density gradient and by steepening and deepening the associated isopycnals. This response limits cross-ASF onshore heat transport at many locations around Antarctica. Third, EKE increases near the ASF may contribute to shelf warming by increasing cross-ASF onshore eddy heat transport. These results demonstrate the importance of shelf freshening to the development of positive heat anomalies on the Antarctic shelf. The findings provide new insight to the location of future shelf warming and ice shelf basal melting as well as provide significant information for projecting regional and global SLR.