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A ubiquitous problem for all foragers is the trade-off between acquiring food energy while simultaneously avoiding the risk of predation. In central montane Alberta I modelled how ungulate forage changes with succession within cutblocks and the implications for forage availability to ungulates under current harvest regimes. Because cutblocks are discrete patches in space, I developed a dynamic state variable model for an ungulate to explore under what conditions an individual forager could (1) behaviourally avoid predation within a patch through inactivity, (2) overcome patch isolation when confronted with predation during transit between patches, and (3) alter patch use across a home range to optimize fitness. The model includes the requirement to process forage into energy through rumination behaviour that constrains foraging, and compares outcomes under a time-minimizing (sigmoid) and energy maximizing (linear) fitness functions. When an ungulate is in high energetic state, inactivity provides an effective behavioural refuge, or animals prioritize safety over energy gain, individuals avoid predation within patches reducing the need to move between patches. When energy acquisition is prioritized, individuals are at a low energetic state, or within patch anti-predator behaviours are ineffective, individuals move among patches to avoid predators in space, and configuration of the patches influences fitness. When model results were qualitatively compared to activity patterns and cutblock use of female, GPS-collared elk appear to follow a time minimizing strategy in their patch use across the home range and with their activity within riskier patches. I discuss the implications of these findings for the management of elk and cutblocks in west central Alberta.

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This PhD dissertation work delves into critical issues within the forestry business related to carbon sequestration, land value maximization and climate change vulnerability. The study proposes different tools to enhance the efficiency and outcomes of forest practices. Chapter two involves an enhanced forest rotation deferral methodology for carbon dioxide sequestration, focusing on the forest's final product destination passed the Faustmann optimal rotation age. Instead of giving the same value for pulp wood and saw timber, the research acknowledges the benefit of increased carbon dioxide stored in saw timber materials. To drive landowners to the socially optimum rotation age, where the marginal benefits of extended carbon storage equal the private marginal cost of postponing forest rotation, an incentive based mechanism is proposed, using subsidies. Through sensitivity analysis on the underlying assumptions, the socially optimal rotation is consistently greater than the currently applied one-year harvesting deferral, and smaller than longer extensions, such as 20 years deferred rotations. In chapter three, a novel approach to design Streamside Management Zones widths that vary according to different landscape characteristics is presented, as opposed to the constant command and control width currently used in Virginia. This adaptive approach allows landowners to maximize land value, while ensuring water quality protection. To determine the sediment retention equation as a function of SMZ slope, width, and soil texture, we use data derived from the Watershed Erosion Prediction Project. By simulating different regulatory constraints concerning accepted sediment delivery, the study shows the tradeoff between water quality and land expectation value through the changes in the opportunity cost of Streamside Management Zones. Lastly, chapter four centers on a dataset collected in India about tree planting species choice followed by a second model that incorporates socio-economic, as well as revealed preference management choices, and tree planting species as explanatory variables in a binary crop loss model. The findings reveal that tree planting, except for fruit trees, compared to agricultural crops, diminishes the household's probability of facing losses due to climate change, extreme weather events and pest attacks. Specifically, there is a 14.4% reduction in the probability of facing a loss when planting Eucalypt and Casuarina trees, a 7.6% reduction when planting palm trees, and 13.5% reduction when planting multiple trees, which evidences how trees are less vulnerable. Throughout this dissertation, the interdisciplinary research uses rigorous methodologies, comprehensive data analysis, and environmental economics theoretical foundation, culminating in valuable insights and potential policy recommendations to enhance forest practices in environmental challenging times. / Doctor of Philosophy / Climate change is a reality and forest practices can help us mitigate some of its consequences. However, forest practices are driven by private decisions that prioritize individual net benefits, often neglecting the broader ecosystem services forests provide. To enhance the collective benefits that forests provide to society, while maximizing the private economic return, it is crucial to employ tools to drive landowners to a socially optimal outcome. This dissertation aims to improve forest practices in three key environmental areas: carbon dioxide sequestration, land value optimization with water quality conservation, and crop vulnerability. The second chapter introduces a novel harvesting deferral methodology for carbon dioxide sequestration, which assigns greater value for saw timber production due to its longer product lifespan, thereby enhancing carbon dioxide sequestration away from the atmosphere. We align private landowner and social planner's interests and propose a subsidy scheme to incentivize landowners to postpone their forest rotation age until the marginal cost of doing so equals the societal marginal benefit of the deferred rotation. The outcomes are contingent on the underlying assumptions, and in this study, all rotation deferrals were greater than the current one-year rotation deferral contract, and smaller than 20 years. In the third chapter, an alternative approach to defining Streamside Management Zones (SMZ) width is proposed. Rather than employing a fixed width value across various conditions, a varied SMZ width is suggested, according to specific landscape characteristics. The study formulates the landowner's maximization problem, which is constrained to a fixed sediment delivery value. By simulating sediment retention delivery data using the Watershed Erosion Prediction Project, the research shows the opportunity cost of water quality through forgone timber revenue. Lastly, considering the direct link between climate change and food security, the dissertation utilizes data collected in India on household characteristics and revealed management choices. The first objective is to model the factors influencing the tree species planting decision, followed by a second model that focuses on how tree planting may reduce the probability of facing losses. The findings indicate that tree planting, except for fruits, reduces the probability of losses compared to planting agricultural crops. Throughout the dissertation, different methodologies, data analysis, and interdisciplinary research with potential policy implications are presented.

Significant research efforts have been devoted to large-scale dynamical systems, with the aim of understanding their complicated behaviors and managing their responses in real-time. One pivotal technological obstacle in this process is the existence of uncertainty. Although many of these large-scale dynamical systems function well in the design stage, they may easily fail when operating in realistic environment, where environmental uncertainties modulate system dynamics and complicate real-time predication and management tasks. This dissertation aims to develop systematic methodologies to evaluate the performance of large-scale dynamical systems under uncertainty, as a step toward real-time decision support. Two uncertainty evaluation approaches are pursued: the analytical approach and the effective simulation approach. The analytical approach abstracts the dynamics of original stochastic systems, and develops tractable analysis (e.g., jump-linear analysis) for the approximated systems. Despite the potential bias introduced in the approximation process, the analytical approach provides rich insights valuable for evaluating and managing the performance of large-scale dynamical systems under uncertainty. When a system’s complexity and scale are beyond tractable analysis, the effective simulation approach becomes very useful. The effective simulation approach aims to use a few smartly selected simulations to quickly evaluate a complex system’s statistical performance. This approach was originally developed to evaluate a single uncertain variable. This dissertation extends the approach to be scalable and effective for evaluating large-scale systems under a large-number of uncertain variables. While a large portion of this dissertation focuses on the development of generic methods and theoretical analysis that are applicable to broad large-scale dynamical systems, many results are illustrated through a representative large-scale system application on strategic air traffic management application, which is concerned with designing robust management plans subject to a wide range of weather possibilities at 2-15 hours look-ahead time.

In die Infrastruktur unserer Gesellschaft sind komplexe IT-Systeme fest eingebettet. Die Verbreitung und Verstetigung von IT-Systemen betrifft zentrale Bereiche unserer Gesellschaft beispielsweise Verkehrs-, Finanz- oder Gesundheitssystem. Lange Zeit standen funktionale Aspekte bei der Entwicklung informationstechnischer Systeme im Vordergrund. In den letzten Jahren haben sich jedoch nichtfunktionale Eigenschaften von IT-Systemen wie Robustheit zu unverzichtbaren Schlüsseleigenschaften in einer Vielzahl von Anwendungsfeldern entwickelt. Systeme während der Betriebsphase sind Veränderungen der gegebenen Einsatz- und Betriebsbedingungen durch Störungen der Umgebung oder auch Verschleißerscheinungen ausgesetzt. Ziel der Forschungsarbeit ist es ein Konzept für die Systemeigenschaft Robustheit zu entwickeln. Für ein gegebenes System mit einem definierten Funktionsziel ist zu analysieren, inwieweit es robust hinsichtlich Störungen der Einsatzbedingungen, verursacht durch Ereignisse der Umgebung, ist und folglich trotzdem das Funktionsziel erfüllt. Das vorgestellte Konzept umfasst dabei zwei wesentliche Problemstellungen: Bewertung der Robustheit Methode für robuste Systeme zur Laufzeit In Abhängigkeit der technischen Kennzahl, Robustheit, wird eine optimale Entscheidungsstrategie gewählt und so das Systemverhalten gesteuert. Mit der Integration eines Robustheitskonzepts insbesondere für den Systembetrieb soll anhand der Berücksichtigung der Systemeigenschaft Robustheit zur Laufzeit ein Beitrag zum Qualitätszuwachs bei Systemen geleistet werden. / Complex IT-systems are deeply embedded in the infrastructure of the society. The integration of these systems is important for plenty of areas such as the transportation system, the financial system or the health care system. For a long time, the functional aspects of the invention had been put forward. But lately the non-functional characteristics of IT-systems such as robustness have developed to essential key factors in many fields. A lot of systems are being exposed to environmental disturbances are showing during the stage of operation. This research work purpose is to develop a concept of robustness to increase system robustness. The robustness of embedded systems is supposed to be analyzed towards disturbances and terms of usage that were caused by the environment. Thereby the concept targets two main issues: measurement of the robustness and methods for robust systems concerning its duration. Depending on the value of robustness a proper decision is made in order to control the behavior of the system. Through an integration of the above mentioned concept, a rise of quality regarding the robustness of the system is pursued respecting its period of operation.

In die Infrastruktur unserer Gesellschaft sind komplexe IT-Systeme fest eingebettet. Die Verbreitung und Verstetigung von IT-Systemen betrifft zentrale Bereiche unserer Gesellschaft beispielsweise Verkehrs-, Finanz- oder Gesundheitssystem. Lange Zeit standen funktionale Aspekte bei der Entwicklung informationstechnischer Systeme im Vordergrund. In den letzten Jahren haben sich jedoch nichtfunktionale Eigenschaften von IT-Systemen wie Robustheit zu unverzichtbaren Schlüsseleigenschaften in einer Vielzahl von Anwendungsfeldern entwickelt. Systeme während der Betriebsphase sind Veränderungen der gegebenen Einsatz- und Betriebsbedingungen durch Störungen der Umgebung oder auch Verschleißerscheinungen ausgesetzt. Ziel der Forschungsarbeit ist es ein Konzept für die Systemeigenschaft Robustheit zu entwickeln. Für ein gegebenes System mit einem definierten Funktionsziel ist zu analysieren, inwieweit es robust hinsichtlich Störungen der Einsatzbedingungen, verursacht durch Ereignisse der Umgebung, ist und folglich trotzdem das Funktionsziel erfüllt. Das vorgestellte Konzept umfasst dabei zwei wesentliche Problemstellungen: Bewertung der Robustheit und Methode für robuste Systeme zur Laufzeit. In Abhängigkeit der technischen Kennzahl, Robustheit, wird eine optimale Entscheidungsstrategie gewählt und so das Systemverhalten gesteuert. Mit der Integration eines Robustheitskonzepts insbesondere für den Systembetrieb soll anhand der Berücksichtigung der Systemeigenschaft Robustheit zur Laufzeit ein Beitrag zum Qualitätszuwachs bei Systemen geleistet werden. / Complex IT-systems are deeply embedded in the infrastructure of the society. The integration of these systems is important for plenty of areas such as the transportation system, the financial system or the health care system. For a long time, the functional aspects of the invention had been put forward. But lately the non-functional characteristics of IT-systems such as robustness have developed to essential key factors in many fields. A lot of systems are being exposed to environmental disturbances are showing during the stage of operation. This research work purpose is to develop a concept of robustness to increase system robustness. The robustness of embedded systems is supposed to be analyzed towards disturbances and terms of usage that were caused by the environment. Thereby the concept targets two main issues: measurement of the robustness and methods for robust systems concerning its duration. Depending on the value of robustness a proper decision is made in order to control the behavior of the system. Through an integration of the above mentioned concept, a rise of quality regarding the robustness of the system is pursued respecting its period of operation.

This thesis presents a methodology to incorporate reservoir uncertainties and estimate the loss in project value when facility planning decisions are based on erroneous estimates of input variables. We propose a tank model along with integrated asset development model to simulate the concept selection process. The model endogenizes drilling decisions and includes an option to expand. Key decision variables included in the model are number of pre-drill wells, initial facility capacity and number of well slots. Comparison is made between project value derived under erroneous estimates for reserve size and under an alternate hypothesis. The results suggest loss in project value of up to 40% when reservoir estimates are erroneous. Moreover, both optimistic and pessimistic reserve estimates results in a loss in project value. However, loss in project value is bigger when reserve size is underestimated than when it is overestimated. / text

In die Infrastruktur unserer Gesellschaft sind komplexe IT-Systeme fest eingebettet. Die Verbreitung und Verstetigung von IT-Systemen betrifft zentrale Bereiche unserer Gesellschaft beispielsweise Verkehrs-, Finanz- oder Gesundheitssystem. Lange Zeit standen funktionale Aspekte bei der Entwicklung informationstechnischer Systeme im Vordergrund. In den letzten Jahren haben sich jedoch nichtfunktionale Eigenschaften von IT-Systemen wie Robustheit zu unverzichtbaren Schlüsseleigenschaften in einer Vielzahl von Anwendungsfeldern entwickelt. Systeme während der Betriebsphase sind Veränderungen der gegebenen Einsatz- und Betriebsbedingungen durch Störungen der Umgebung oder auch Verschleißerscheinungen ausgesetzt. Ziel der Forschungsarbeit ist es ein Konzept für die Systemeigenschaft Robustheit zu entwickeln. Für ein gegebenes System mit einem definierten Funktionsziel ist zu analysieren, inwieweit es robust hinsichtlich Störungen der Einsatzbedingungen, verursacht durch Ereignisse der Umgebung, ist und folglich trotzdem das Funktionsziel erfüllt. Das vorgestellte Konzept umfasst dabei zwei wesentliche Problemstellungen: Bewertung der Robustheit Methode für robuste Systeme zur Laufzeit In Abhängigkeit der technischen Kennzahl, Robustheit, wird eine optimale Entscheidungsstrategie gewählt und so das Systemverhalten gesteuert. Mit der Integration eines Robustheitskonzepts insbesondere für den Systembetrieb soll anhand der Berücksichtigung der Systemeigenschaft Robustheit zur Laufzeit ein Beitrag zum Qualitätszuwachs bei Systemen geleistet werden. / Complex IT-systems are deeply embedded in the infrastructure of the society. The integration of these systems is important for plenty of areas such as the transportation system, the financial system or the health care system. For a long time, the functional aspects of the invention had been put forward. But lately the non-functional characteristics of IT-systems such as robustness have developed to essential key factors in many fields. A lot of systems are being exposed to environmental disturbances are showing during the stage of operation. This research work purpose is to develop a concept of robustness to increase system robustness. The robustness of embedded systems is supposed to be analyzed towards disturbances and terms of usage that were caused by the environment. Thereby the concept targets two main issues: measurement of the robustness and methods for robust systems concerning its duration. Depending on the value of robustness a proper decision is made in order to control the behavior of the system. Through an integration of the above mentioned concept, a rise of quality regarding the robustness of the system is pursued respecting its period of operation.

In die Infrastruktur unserer Gesellschaft sind komplexe IT-Systeme fest eingebettet. Die Verbreitung und Verstetigung von IT-Systemen betrifft zentrale Bereiche unserer Gesellschaft beispielsweise Verkehrs-, Finanz- oder Gesundheitssystem. Lange Zeit standen funktionale Aspekte bei der Entwicklung informationstechnischer Systeme im Vordergrund. In den letzten Jahren haben sich jedoch nichtfunktionale Eigenschaften von IT-Systemen wie Robustheit zu unverzichtbaren Schlüsseleigenschaften in einer Vielzahl von Anwendungsfeldern entwickelt. Systeme während der Betriebsphase sind Veränderungen der gegebenen Einsatz- und Betriebsbedingungen durch Störungen der Umgebung oder auch Verschleißerscheinungen ausgesetzt. Ziel der Forschungsarbeit ist es ein Konzept für die Systemeigenschaft Robustheit zu entwickeln. Für ein gegebenes System mit einem definierten Funktionsziel ist zu analysieren, inwieweit es robust hinsichtlich Störungen der Einsatzbedingungen, verursacht durch Ereignisse der Umgebung, ist und folglich trotzdem das Funktionsziel erfüllt. Das vorgestellte Konzept umfasst dabei zwei wesentliche Problemstellungen: Bewertung der Robustheit und Methode für robuste Systeme zur Laufzeit. In Abhängigkeit der technischen Kennzahl, Robustheit, wird eine optimale Entscheidungsstrategie gewählt und so das Systemverhalten gesteuert. Mit der Integration eines Robustheitskonzepts insbesondere für den Systembetrieb soll anhand der Berücksichtigung der Systemeigenschaft Robustheit zur Laufzeit ein Beitrag zum Qualitätszuwachs bei Systemen geleistet werden. / Complex IT-systems are deeply embedded in the infrastructure of the society. The integration of these systems is important for plenty of areas such as the transportation system, the financial system or the health care system. For a long time, the functional aspects of the invention had been put forward. But lately the non-functional characteristics of IT-systems such as robustness have developed to essential key factors in many fields. A lot of systems are being exposed to environmental disturbances are showing during the stage of operation. This research work purpose is to develop a concept of robustness to increase system robustness. The robustness of embedded systems is supposed to be analyzed towards disturbances and terms of usage that were caused by the environment. Thereby the concept targets two main issues: measurement of the robustness and methods for robust systems concerning its duration. Depending on the value of robustness a proper decision is made in order to control the behavior of the system. Through an integration of the above mentioned concept, a rise of quality regarding the robustness of the system is pursued respecting its period of operation.