CoordenaÃÃo de AperfeiÃoamento de Pessoal de NÃvel Superior / Irrigation contributes to the increase of industrial and commercial activities, directly impacting on economic progress, generating direct and indirect responsible for the circulation of wealth from the countries jobs. In any irrigation project, it becomes important to understand the concept of technology that is linked not only to factors such as machinery and equipment to optimize production, plus also the fact that these elements or factors need to be operated within the productive activity. This work had as main objective to analyze the influence of technology on the payment capacity of the producers of the Irrigation Plateaus of Guadalupe, in the state of PiauÃ. Specifically, we sought to identify the representative technological factors and group producers based on the calculation of a technological index; calculate the revenue and production costs of the perimeter producer groups; ability to calculate the total and per unit of crop produced raw water payment, considering the groups of producers; and identify the effect of the technological level on the ability to pay the irrigator producer. The primary data were collected by the technical nature of field research, qualitative and quantitative types of descriptive and refer to the year 2012, collected in 2013 three methods were used: factor analysis to extract the main factors in the formation of representative index aggregate of technological producers and cluster analysis to identify producers who had lower or higher levels of adoption of agricultural technology in irrigation. Jointly-used the residual method to determine the ability to pay full, unitary and culture of producers using raw water for irrigation. The results pointed to the definition of four representative factors in the level of technology. For the index, it was observed that the clustering resulted in three classes, according to the low, medium and high order. Costs and revenues for producer group were raised, considering the technological index and then was calculated ability to pay and the total unit per group of irrigators on the perimeter Plateaus of Guadalupe-PI, concluding as satisfactory for the three groups . In the culture analysis, it was determined that the guava CPT was the most significant, followed production consortium of banana, passion fruit. In order to obtain conclusive results and achieve the objectives of the work, did the aggregated analysis, ie, calculating the Technological Producers Index (ITI), there was that irrigating farmers with low ITI showed low CPT, producers with an average ITI revealed average CPT and irrigators with high ITI expressed high CPT. Therefore, it is concluded that the three groups indicated satisfactory CPT, may state that prevails among irrigators analyzed agriculture medium technological level. / A irrigaÃÃo contribui para o aumento das atividades industrial e comercial, impactando diretamente no progresso econÃmico, gerando empregos diretos e indiretos responsÃveis pela circulaÃÃo de riquezas dos paÃses. Em qualquer projeto de irrigaÃÃo, torna-se importante entender o conceito de tecnologia que està ligado nÃo somente a fatores como mÃquinas e equipamentos capazes de otimizar a produÃÃo, mais tambÃm ao fato de que esses elementos ou fatores precisam ser operados dentro da atividade produtiva. Assim, este trabalho teve como objetivo geral analisar a influÃncia da tecnologia na capacidade de pagamento dos produtores do PerÃmetro Irrigado PlatÃs de Guadalupe, no Estado do PiauÃ. Especificamente, buscou-se identificar os fatores tecnolÃgicos representativos e agrupar os produtores com base no cÃlculo de um Ãndice tecnolÃgico; calcular as receitas e custos de produÃÃo dos grupos produtores do perÃmetro; calcular a capacidade de pagamento total, unitÃria e por cultura produzida de Ãgua bruta, considerando os grupos de produtores; e identificar o efeito do nÃvel tecnolÃgico sobre a capacidade de pagamento do produtor irrigante. Os dados de natureza primÃria foram coletados pela tÃcnica de pesquisa de campo, dos tipos qualitativa e quantitativa descritiva e referem-se ao ano de 2012, coletados em 2013. Foram utilizados trÃs mÃtodos: anÃlise fatorial para extraÃÃo dos principais fatores representativos da formaÃÃo do Ãndice tecnolÃgico dos produtores agregado e a anÃlise de clusters, para identificar os produtores que apresentaram menores ou maiores nÃveis de adoÃÃo de tecnologia agrÃcola em irrigaÃÃo. Em conjunto, usou-se o mÃtodo residual para determinar a capacidade de pagamento total, unitÃria e por cultura dos produtores que utilizam Ãgua bruta para irrigaÃÃo. Os resultados apontaram para a definiÃÃo de quatro fatores representativos do nÃvel de tecnologia. Para o Ãndice, observou-se que o agrupamento resultou em trÃs classes, obedecendo à ordem baixo, mÃdio e alto. Foram levantados os custos e as receitas por grupo de produtor, considerando o Ãndice tecnolÃgico e, em seguida se calculou a capacidade de pagamento total e unitÃria por grupo dos irrigantes no perÃmetro PlatÃs de Guadalupe-PI, concluindo-se como satisfatÃria para os trÃs grupos. Na anÃlise por cultura, determinou-se que a CPT da goiaba foi a mais expressiva, seguida da produÃÃo consorciada de banana e maracujÃ. A fim de se obter resultados conclusivos e atingir os objetivos do trabalho, fez-se a anÃlise agregada, ou seja, calculando-se o Ãndice TecnolÃgico dos Produtores (ITI), constatando-se que os produtores irrigantes com baixo ITI apresentaram CPT baixa, os produtores com mÃdio ITI revelaram CPT mÃdia e os irrigantes com alto ITI manifestaram CPT alta. Portanto, conclui-se que os trÃs grupos indicaram CPT satisfatÃria, podendo-se afirmar que predomina entre os irrigantes analisados uma agricultura de mÃdio nÃvel tecnolÃgico.

nÃo hà / Este trabalho aborda a capacidade de pagamento dos usuÃrios de Ãgua bruta da Bacia do Baixo Jaguaribe, que esta localizada no estado do CearÃ. No Brasil, a polÃtica dos recursos hÃdricos ganhou grande importÃncia apÃs a ConstituiÃÃo Federal de 1988, somente em 1997 à que comeÃou a vigorar as Leis que impÃe a regulamentaÃÃo para o uso da Ãgua. O estado do Cearà foi um dos pioneiros na adoÃÃo da polÃtica dos recursos hÃdricos, utilizando a negociaÃÃo democrÃtica como forma privilegiada de superar conflitos de uso, adotando a bacia hidrogrÃfica, como unidade bÃsica dos recursos hÃdricos. Observa-se no desenvolvimento deste trabalho que a cobranÃa da Ãgua bruta nÃo pode ser feita de forma uniforme, pois, à de fundamental importÃncia considerarem-se as diferenÃas entre os vÃrios perÃmetros irrigados e tipos de culturas ao se estabelecerem critÃrios de cobranÃa pelo uso de Ãgua bruta nesta Bacia. / This work approaches the payment capability of consumers of non-treated water from the low Jaguaribe Bay, in the state of CearÃ. In Brasil, hydric resources policy increased in importance after the 1988 Federal Constitution, but its lows regulating the use of water were reinforced only in 1997. The state of Cearà was pionner in adopting a water resource policy, by means of democratic negociations to overcome conflicts of water usage, taking the hidrografic bay as a unit for water resource. It was observed in this work that charging the use of non-treated water can not be done in a uniform way, since it is extremely important to consider the diferences among the many irrigated perimeters and culture type for the settle rules of charge for the use of non-treated water in this bay.

The introduction of a liberalised electricity market has brought a new challenge to generating companies as well as system regulators. Under this more competitive environment, generating companies are exposed to various risks that might compromise their investment return. Moreover, the various risks in the market affect each type of generation technology in a different way; hence influence the technology choice. Furthermore, it is not yet clear whether the investment cycles in a liberalised electricity market will take place in an orderly fashion or whether 'boom and bust' cycles may arise. As a consequence various market designs, investment incentives and policies have been implemented by system regulators to try to ensure the security of supply. Investment decisions under a market with incentive mechanism are even more complicated to model because the generating company needs to forecast the revenue that the new investment will make from both the energy market and the mechanism. This thesis develops some models that could be used by system regulators to study the performance of market designs and by generating companies to assess a new investment under a liberalised electricity market. Three main models have been developed to serve these purposes. A generation expansion model has been developed using Agent-based modelling approach. In this model each generating company makes investment decision taking into account their competitors' investment strategies and the interactions between them. Several incentive mechanisms are also modelled to study their impacts on the generating companies' investment decision and the dynamic of the investments. A more comprehensive investment framework for a generating company to evaluate an investment in a new power plant has also been developed. The framework consists of two stages: 1) it first models the expected future investments and retirements from all the companies in the market and 2) then calculates the market prices and revenues of the new investment against the future system expansion obtained in the first stage. Two investment models have been developed using this framework. The first model is a probabilistic valuation model to assess investment considering risks and uncertainties. The second model is developed to evaluate investment in an oligopoly electricity market taking into account various risk characteristics of different technologies. The investment framework for a generating company to evaluate an investment is also extended so that the generating company can evaluate investments in a market with an incentive mechanism.

En Latinoamérica, se ha desarrollado, la inclusión financiera, de manera muy rápida en los últimos tiempos, sin embargo, este proceso todavía no consigue que la fuerza laboral esté integrada totalmente. El acceso al crédito en América Latina solo representa el 51% y, en el Perú, esta cifra desciende al 29% (CEPES,2016). En el rubro económico, los requerimientos para poder acceder a un crédito son muy rigurosos, donde prevalece el sector formal. Más de las dos terceras partes del poder laboral en el Perú (69%) no son formales, según la Organización Mundial del Trabajo. Asimismo, en el sector informal el otorgamiento de crédito carece de historial financiero y los montos son mínimos esto conlleva a que las entidades financieras eleven el riesgo y los costos asociados con los créditos en este sector. Esto nos muestra que las realidades de los créditos difieren demasiado con el proceso de evaluación de clientes generando una deficiente y mala representación de lo que ocurre en la vida real. Este proyecto permite está basado en que la gran cantidad de financieras solamente entregan créditos a su clientela que cuenta con un historial crediticio, en consecuencia, el fin de este proyecto, muy diferente a lo convencional, es poder otorgar créditos a personas naturales y/o empresas que se encuentran en el proceso de la formalidad. Contamos con referencias de otras partes del mundo, un claro ejemplo es en el país oriental de la China la cual cuenta con una realidad cultural muy diferente a la nuestra, sin embargo, cuenta con conocimientos que se pueden adaptar al proyecto nuestro. Con todo lo descrito, planteamos el desarrollo de un Modelo de Data Science que ayude a analizar a los clientes potenciales mediante el cálculo de su capacidad de pago y en base a eso predecir y ofrecer el producto que mejor se acople a los parámetros antes detallados (Cáceres & Paucar, 2019). Este proyecto desarrolla el Modelo de Data Science y se prueba en una Página Web en la misma caja rural (instalaciones) y en el sector campo mediante la ayuda de sus móviles, para demostrar los resultados logrados y las mejores comparativas de nuestro modelo con el método tradicional. Palabras claves: Data Science, Modelo de evaluación, Capacidad de pago, Data Analysis, Historial Crediticio, Caja Rural. / In Latin America, financial inclusion has increased considerably in recent years, but it still does not cover the entire workforce. According to World Bank studies, access to credit in Latin America represents only 51% and in Peru this figure drops to 29%. In the financial sector, the requirements for applying for credit are very rigid, giving priority to the formal sector. According to the International Labor Organization, 69% of the labor force in Peru is informal. Furthermore, in this sector the loans granted are small amounts and lack credit history, making the costs and risk associated with such loans high for the entities. That is why the analysis in the evaluation of the client without credit history is deficient with the reality that they present. The development of this project responds to the fact that the great majority of financial entities grant credits to clients who already have some credit history, therefore, what we want to show, unlike the rest, is that a credit can also be granted to people or micro entrepreneurs who are not yet totally formalized or do not present proof of income (ballots or receipt for fees). There are precedents of this type of cases at international level, particularly in China that have another reality to ours, but some concepts can be transferred to our project. Based on the above, we propose the development of a Data Science model that will allow us to evaluate potential clients and, in turn, evaluate their ability to pay and offer them an associated product for each client. To this end, the model was tested on a web page within the entity on their computers and outside through the use of mobile devices, in order to show results obtained by the model indicating improvements in the percentage of credit granted to clients by officials. Keywords: data science, evaluation model, payment capacity, data analysis, credit history, rural saving bank. / Tesis