The cryosphere has been shown to be particularly adept as a proxy for climate change by various studies. Accordingly, historical records from the field of ice phenology have been harvested by climate scientists for the express purpose of studying the temporal variation of ice phenomena, namely freeze-up and ice-out. Ice-out records from 20 lakes in Maine, U.S.A. were collected and clustered by z-score for this thesis. Rather than attempt to relate ice-out to spring air temperature or global teleconnections/oscillations, the Spatial Synoptic Classification (SSC) method was used to encapsulate several meteorological variables that could have a bearing on ice-out variation. The balance between occurrence of relatively cool Moist Polar (MP) and relatively warm Dry Moderate (DM) weather-types during the winter-spring "superseason" was found to be a synoptic barometer of whether ice-out would occur seasonably early or late. The significance of this is predicated upon the finding that quantity of DM days has steadily risen at the expense of MP days during the latter-half of the twentieth-century, in accordance with observed climatic warming during the same period. The remaining SSC weather-types, most notably omnipresent Dry Polar (DP), remained generally stable during the historical record in Maine, further undergirding the significance of the DM-MP relationship. / Master of Science / The seasonal phenomenon of “ice-out,” the date on which the ice cover of a lake, pond, or river breaks up, has been well documented for many lakes in Maine. Numerous studies from around the world have linked progressively earlier ice-out dates to climate change and sought to use ice-out records, which often pre-date accurate temperature records, to better understand the effects of climate change. Synoptic weather-typing, or the characterization of daily surface weather conditions into archetypical classes, was the chief method of analysis in an effort to derive the link between shifting weather conditions (a manifestation of climate change) and the ice-out of 20 Maine lakes. In particular, the Spatial Synoptic Classification (SSC) method was selected due to its strong record in research and local availability. So-called “polar” weather-types, specifically Dry Polar (DP) and Moist Polar (MP), make up the majority of days in winter and early spring, but the latter-half of the twentieth century has seen MP days on the decline. The loss of MP days was found to be to the gain of the comparatively warmer Dry Moderate (DM) weather-type. MP and DM days each account for about 20% of the composition of the winter-spring “superseason,” on average; thus the balance between the two weather-types represents a synoptic barometer that provides an indication of a relatively early or late ice-out.

Climate change is causing shifts in the phenology (timing of life events) of many organisms with consequences such as changes in species interactions and community composition. Owing to the large elevational and latitudinal gradients in its distribution, the native California wildflower, Streptanthus tortuosus (shieldplant) is a great model organism for studying the impacts of climate change. Few studies have looked at temporal shifts in the onset, peak, and end of flowering. Herbarium specimens and local historical climate data were used to make inferences about the temporal shifts of flowering phenology and the impacts of rising mean annual temperature and minimum monthly temperature on flowering phenology. Across the 114 years (1894- 2010) sampled, low elevation specimens (up to 1000 m) were the most sensitive to phenological shifts with their peak flowering advancing by 19 days. The end of flowering in low elevation plants advanced by 17 days. Furthermore, the data demonstrate that increasing temperatures correlated with earlier flowering times for all specimens, particularly at low elevations. Plants at higher elevations displayed smaller shifts in flowering timings. Taken together, these results suggest that climate change is likely causing shifts in the reproductive phenology of S. tortuosus. Understanding these impacts will enable us to better understand and predict the plant’s ability to adapt and persist in California as it faces new and increasingly variable environmental conditions in the future.

Vegetation phenology controls seasonal variation in ecosystem processes and exerts important controls on land-atmosphere exchanges of carbon, water, and energy. However, the ecological processes and interactions between climate and vegetation that control phenology and associated feedbacks to the atmosphere are not fully understood. In this dissertation, I use remote sensing in combination with climate and ecological data to improve understanding of biophysical controls and feedbacks between vegetation phenology and the atmosphere in temperate forest ecosystems of North America. In the first part of this dissertation, I evaluate the agreement and characterize the similarities and differences between land surface phenology products from two remote sensing instruments (MODIS and VIIRS) that are designed to provide long-term continuity of land surface phenology measurements at global scale. Results from this analysis indicate that the VIIRS land surface phenology product provides excellent continuity with the MODIS record despite subtle differences between each instrument and the algorithms used to generate each product. In the second part of this dissertation, a state-space Bayesian modeling framework is applied to seventeen years of MODIS and daily weather data to improve understanding of what controls the timing of springtime phenology in deciduous forests of temperate and boreal North America. Results show that photoperiod is more important in warmer regions than in colder regions, which contradicts a widely held hypothesis that photoperiod provides a key safety mechanism preventing early leaf-out during springtime. In the final part of this dissertation, I use a physically-based attribution method to quantify the relative importance of covarying surface biophysical and atmospheric variables in modifying the surface energy balance during springtime. Results show that the widely observed decrease in the Bowen ratio that occurs with leaf emergence is not solely attributable to changes in surface resistance caused by increasing leaf area during spring. Rather, observed changes in the Bowen ratio reflect the combined effects of changes in surface properties and atmospheric conditions. The results from this dissertation provide an improved foundation for long-term studies focused on observing and modeling springtime vegetation phenology and associated feedbacks to the atmosphere in deciduous forest ecosystems at local-to-continental scales.

Understanding the relationships between solitary bees’ flight phenology and flowering phenology is important in the context of global warming. Using Swedish citizen science data, observations of oligolectic solitary bees and flowering phenology were used together with temperature data. All five bees studied had flight period that overlapped with the flowering period their corresponding host plant. None of the species were affected by the temperature, although there was a correlation between earliest observations of flowering phenology and flight phenology. The later the flowering observation was made, the later the flight observation was made. No correlation was found between the length of flight period and length of the flowering period. Increasing temperature is not the only factor that effects flight phenology and flowering phenology.

Thesis (MScAgric)--University of Stellenbosch, 2004. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Codling moth, Cydia pomonella (L.), infested fluit were collected in a sprayed, unsprayed and an organic orchard. The time of emergence was monitored to see if there was selection for a delayed emergence caused by different treatments. Moths from fruit collected in the sprayed and unsprayed orchards in Desember 2001, had a peak emergence during January 2002 and a smaller peak during February 2002. Moths from fruit collected during February 2002 from an organic orchard, had a peak emergence during February 2002 and an extended emergence from diapause until January 2003. Moths from fluit collected during March 2002 had a peak emergence during November 2002 with an extended emergence in the sprayed orchards until January 2003. Delayed emergence from diapause was observed. Not all the moths from diapause emerged during the first flight, but overlapped with the second flight in December and January. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Kodlingmot, Cydia pomonella (L.), geïnfesteerde vrugte is in 'n onbespuite, chemies behandelde en 'n organiese boord versamel. Die tyd van motuitkoms is gemonitor om te bepaal of verskillende behandelings dalk seleksie in die motpopulasie kan veroorsaak ten op sigte van 'n vertraagde motuitkoms. Motte uit vrugte wat in die gespuite boorde in Desember 2001 versamel is, het 'n piek uitkoms in Januarie en 'n kleiner een in Februarie 2002 gehad. Motte uit die ongespuite boord se vrugte, het ook 'n piek uitkoms in Januarie 2002 getoon. Motte uit vrugte wat in Februarie 2002 in 'n organiese boord versamel is, het 'n piek uitkoms in Februarie 2002 gehad, met 'n verlengde uitkoms vanuit diapause vanaf Oktober 2002 tot Januarie 2003. Motte uit vrugte wat in Maart 2002 versamel is, het 'n piek uitkoms in November 2002 gehad. Daar was ook 'n verlengde motuitkoms vanaf diapause by die chemies behandelde boorde tot Januarie 2003. 'n Vertraagde motuitkoms vanaf diapause is waargeneem. Die motte vanuit diapause maak nie almal deel uit van die eerste vlug nie, maar oorvleuelook met motte van die tweede vlug wat gedurende Desember en Januarie in die veld voorkom.

Jojoba (Simmondsia chinensis (Link) Schneider) is a wild desert shrub known for the liquid wax extracted from its fruits. As the plant undergoes the first stages of domestication into a commercial crop, it is important to understand its response to environmental factors and to study its regularity of production. Phenological studies including vegetative growth, floral biology, seed production, and seed wax content were conducted from 1979 to 1982, complementing investigations in 1978 in three natural stands of jojoba, near Tucson, Arizona and air and soil precipitation, temperatures were continuously recorded at each study site. Periods of vegetative growth were identical for staminate and pistillate plants and were generally observed after the occurrence of measurable rainfall. In late winter vegetative growth occurred after monthly average minimum temperatures of 4-5°C, although local responses to small differences in temperature were observed. Anthesis was first observed in late February or early March. Fruits generally originated from flower buds produced in the previous summer. Incidence of fruit abortion was greatest in May and June. Variations from year to year in seed production from 1978 to 1982 suggested biennial bearing. Factors in addition to frost incidence were believed to be associated with the absence of seed production in 1979 and the low seed crop of 1981. Levels of foliar total nonstructural carbohydrates were not found to be appreciably different between a low production year and a high production one. Seed wax percent was found to be independent of annual variation in seed production. Plant growth and productivity was greatest on the site with the best developed soil profile, highest water holding capacity and highest exchangeable sodium percentage.

Distributional and ecological dynamics of Neotropical migratory birds at stopover sites where they maintain critical fat reserves during migration remain poorly understood in North American aridlands. I examined spatiotemporal abundance and timing of migrants relative to 1) upland and riparian habitats, 2) post-fire landscape mosaics, and 3) phenological synchrony and overlap of migration with tree flowering in southeastern Arizona's Madrean Archipelago (2009-2011), and 4) abundance, habitat breadth, and foraging substrates relative to tree flowering along the Colorado River in southwestern Arizona and northwestern Sonora, Mexico (2000-2003). I explored these dynamics relative to local weather conditions and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climate phenomena. In Madrean habitats, migrants showed three non-exclusive responses to high precipitation, snowfall, and low minimum temperatures associated with El Niño in 2010; migration timing adjustments, habitat shifts, and reduced abundances suggesting migration route shifts. Foliage-gleaning insectivores were most abundant in high severity burns, disproportionate to their availability, and decreased with time since fire (TSF); flycatchers were most abundant in low-moderate severity and increased with TSF. Migrant abundance increased with tree flowering. Phenological overlap declined with increasing difference in timing of these events. Overlap was lowest in 2011 in riparian habitat due to low willow (Salix goodinggii) flowering, despite high migrant abundance, but lowest in 2010 in montane conifer, despite high pollen cone production by Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga meziesii), suggesting temperature limitation of insect abundance at high elevations, but water limitation of plant phenology at lower elevations. Along the Colorado River, migrant abundance and habitat breadth had inverse positive and negative quadratic relationships, respectively. Abundance increased with tree flowering, but only in 2003 during severe drought. Habitat breadth increased with monsoon precipitation. Foraging substrate use tracked flowering, shifting from willow to mesquite (Prosopis sp.); the overlap coincided with peak abundance and narrowest habitat breadth. Maintenance of diverse vegetation and post-fire landscape mosaics in the Madrean Archipelago should benefit migratory bird diversity. Flowering phenology likely provides large-scale cues of local-scale stopover habitat condition associated with interannual climatic variation. Management and restoration of upland habitats and large riparian woody perennials will be critical for migratory bird conservation in aridlands.

Climate change has been predicted to have long-term consequences for North American ecosystems. Amphibians in particular are considered indicators of ecosystem health because of their sensitivity to environmental change – due in part to their semi-permeable skin and aquatic developmental requirements. Amphibians have been experiencing population declines on a global scale, suggested in part to be due to changes in reproductive behaviour and timing. My thesis examines the abiotic correlates of timing of calling in southeastern Ontario anurans, as well as the extent to which the timing of calling events vary within and among species. I focused on eight species of frogs using both a 40-year historical dataset and a 5-year field-collected dataset of environmental variation and anuran activity. From analysis of the historical dataset, Lithobates pipiens was the only species out of eight to emerge significantly earlier, by an estimated 22 days over four decades. Both L. pipiens and Anaraxyus americanus have advanced initiation of calling over a four-decade span significantly earlier by an estimated 37.2 and 19.2 days, respectively, correlating with significant regional increases in spring air temperatures (2.8°C over four decades). Global frog declines or range shifts relate ultimately to changes in reproductive behaviour and timing mediated by shifting climate. From my analysis of the field-collected dataset, I concluded that species varied in the environmental predictors that best predicted this variation may be a consequence of varying reproductive strategies between early spring “explosive” breeders versus late prolonged breeders. There was also significant among-location variation in calling activity for four prolonged breeding species, which may be an effect of significant microclimatic variation between locations surveyed. My study suggests that local temperature increases have affected the timing of emergence and the onset of calling activity in some frogs and that microclimatic differences among breeding habitats may be influencing the timing of breeding in some prolonged breeding species. My research aids future conservation and management strategies for North America’s dwindling amphibian populations by quantifying how abiotic factors influence breeding behaviour on both a fine and extended temporal scale as well as by developing and testing standardized methods for long-term species monitoring. / Thesis (Master, Biology) -- Queen's University, 2012-11-12 23:05:34.12

Interactions between host plants and aphids under water stress conditions were examined. Two controlled environment room studies, a Veld experiment and phenological modelling analysis were used to investigate three different plant-aphid relationships. The aim of these studies was to determine the results of water shortage on plant and pest populations, which are likely to result under climate change scenarios. The central hypothesis was that mild drought stress would lead to greater aphid populations through a beneficial increase of small nitrogenous molecules in the phloem sap providing improved diet quality — the Plant Stress Hypothesis (White, 1969). Myzus persicae (the peach–potato aphid) is a broad-range feeder with a preference for senescent foliage. Contrary to expectations, on young cabbage plants, Brassica oleracea var capitata, it was found to increase faster and to a greater extent on well-watered hosts. Aphids were also found to prevent osmoregulation in droughted plants. Despite this, the aphid infestation led to a drought-like response in all plants irrespective of watering regime, causing significantly reduced growth. Metopolophium dirhodum (the rose–grain aphid) overwinters as eggs on Rosa spp. but most of its life-cycle is spent on grasses and cereal crops. As with M. persicae, aphid infestation caused drought-like symptoms even in well-watered plants. The mechanism of reduction in plant health is most likely through aphid damage to the efficiency of Photosystem a within 7 days of infestation. On young barley plants, Hordeum vulgare, the rose–grain aphid was found to increase faster and to greater extent on droughted hosts. In contrast to M. persicae, the study strongly supported the Plant Stress Hypothesis, Finding that even mild water stress of approximately −0.3 MPa could lead to conditions favourable to rapid aphid population increase. The difference in the response of different species of aphids may be associated more with the levels of soluble nitrogen in their diet than specifically host plant water status. Drepanosiphum platanoidis is an aphid specific to sycamore, Acer pseudoplatanus and spends its entire life-cycle on that species. In the Veld, the total number of aphids supported by a single tree was found to correlate most strongly with soluble leaf nitrogen. In addition, the number of aphids on individual leaves was found to correlate strongly and negatively with stomatal conductance and leaf water potential. Finally, analysis of historical aphid suction-trap data was carried out. UK Rothamsted suction-traps are 12.2 m tall and sample air at 0.75 m3 s-1, with daily aphid sampling between April and November. The traps are designed to catch the largest proportion of aphids in the total insect sample and to reduce the effect of surrounding land-use on the sample. The area represented by a trap may be as much as 700 km2 (Harrington and Woiwod, 2007). The dataset is the longest and most geographically extensive for aphid populations, comprising 46 sites across Europe as of 2011. In this analysis, aphid and meteorological data from the Edinburgh East Craigs site were used. This also enabled comparison with D. platanoidis numbers collected in the Veld, which showed a strongly significant positive relationship between the two. Since the data collected in suction-traps are correlated with numbers in the Veld, aphid population analysis can be improved with use of these longer datasets, without reliance on shorter-term Veld surveys. The various population characteristics examined were found to be strongly correlated with each other, but were unconnected to data from previous years. The date of first catch was found to be significantly advancing over time, with strong influences from daily minimum temperatures and vapour pressure deficits of the air within the year. Higher temperatures with lower humidity tend to bring forward the date of first catch. Lower tends to depress the population in the summer. The overall hypothesis that mild drought would benefit aphid populations cannot be accepted, but in two cases of the experiment sections of the work there were strong relationships between aphid numbers and both leaf temperature and soil moisture. The meteorological data analysis indicates that climatic changes towards a hotter, drier climate could substantially alter population dynamics. Harrington, R. and Woiwod, I. (2007). Foresight from hindsight: The Rothamsted Insect Survey. Outlooks on Pest Management, 18, 9–14. White, T. (1969). An index to measure weather-induced stress of trees associated with outbreaks of psyllids in Australia. Ecology, 50, 905–909.

<p>All organisms live in complex habitats that shape the course of their evolution by altering the phenotype expressed by a given genotype (a phenomenon known as phenotypic plasticity) and simultaneously by determining the evolutionary fitness of that phenotype. In some cases, phenotypic evolution may alter the environment experienced by future generations. This dissertation describes how genetic and environmental variation act synergistically to affect the evolution of glucosinolate defensive chemistry and flowering time in Boechera stricta, a wild perennial herb. I focus particularly on plant-associated microbes as a part of the plant’s environment that may alter trait evolution and in turn be affected by the evolution of those traits. In the first chapter I measure glucosinolate production and reproductive fitness of over 1,500 plants grown in common gardens in four diverse natural habitats, to describe how patterns of plasticity and natural selection intersect and may influence glucosinolate evolution. I detected extensive genetic variation for glucosinolate plasticity and determined that plasticity may aid colonization of new habitats by moving phenotypes in the same direction as natural selection. In the second chapter I conduct a greenhouse experiment to test whether naturally-occurring soil microbial communities contributed to the differences in phenotype and selection that I observed in the field experiment. I found that soil microbes cause plasticity of flowering time but not glucosinolate production, and that they may contribute to natural selection on both traits; thus, non-pathogenic plant-associated microbes are an environmental feature that could shape plant evolution. In the third chapter, I combine a multi-year, multi-habitat field experiment with high-throughput amplicon sequencing to determine whether B. stricta-associated microbial communities are shaped by plant genetic variation. I found that plant genotype predicts the diversity and composition of leaf-dwelling bacterial communities, but not root-associated bacterial communities. Furthermore, patterns of host genetic control over associated bacteria were largely site-dependent, indicating an important role for genotype-by-environment interactions in microbiome assembly. Together, my results suggest that soil microbes influence the evolution of plant functional traits and, because they are sensitive to plant genetic variation, this trait evolution may alter the microbial neighborhood of future B. stricta generations. Complex patterns of plasticity, selection, and symbiosis in natural habitats may impact the evolution of glucosinolate profiles in Boechera stricta.</p> / Dissertation