Process models are always associated with uncertainty, due to either inaccurate model structure or inaccurate identification. If left unaccounted for, these uncertainties can significantly affect the model-based decision-making. This thesis addresses the problem of model-based optimization in the presence of uncertainties, especially due to model structure error. The optimal solution from standard optimization techniques is often associated with a certain degree of uncertainty and if the model-plant mismatch is very significant, this solution may have a significant bias with respect to the actual process optimum. Accordingly, in this thesis, we developed new strategies to reduce (1) the variability in the optimal solution and (2) the bias between the predicted and the true process optima. Robust optimization is a well-established methodology where the variability in optimization objective is considered explicitly in the cost function, leading to a solution that is robust to model uncertainties. However, the reported robust formulations have few limitations especially in the context of nonlinear models. The standard technique to quantify the effect of model uncertainties is based on the linearization of underlying model that may not be valid if the noise in measurements is quite high. To address this limitation, uncertainty descriptions based on the Bayes’ Theorem are implemented in this work. Since for nonlinear models the resulting Bayesian uncertainty may have a non-standard form with no analytical solution, the propagation of this uncertainty onto the optimum may become computationally challenging using conventional Monte Carlo techniques. To this end, an approach based on Polynomial Chaos expansions is developed. It is shown in a simulated case study that this approach resulted in drastic reductions in the computational time when compared to a standard Monte Carlo sampling technique. The key advantage of PC expansions is that they provide analytical expressions for statistical moments even if the uncertainty in variables is non-standard. These expansions were also used to speed up the calculation of likelihood function within the Bayesian framework. Here, a methodology based on Multi-Resolution analysis is proposed to formulate the PC based approximated model with higher accuracy over the parameter space that is most likely based on the given measurements. For the second objective, i.e. reducing the bias between the predicted and true process optima, an iterative optimization algorithm is developed which progressively corrects the model for structural error as the algorithm proceeds towards the true process optimum. The standard technique is to calibrate the model at some initial operating conditions and, then, use this model to search for an optimal solution. Since the identification and optimization objectives are solved independently, when there is a mismatch between the process and the model, the parameter estimates cannot satisfy these two objectives simultaneously. To this end, in the proposed methodology, corrections are added to the model in such a way that the updated parameter estimates reduce the conflict between the identification and optimization objectives. Unlike the standard estimation technique that minimizes only the prediction error at a given set of operating conditions, the proposed algorithm also includes the differences between the predicted and measured gradients of the optimization objective and/or constraints in the estimation. In the initial version of the algorithm, the proposed correction is based on the linearization of model outputs. Then, in the second part, the correction is extended by using a quadratic approximation of the model, which, for the given case study, resulted in much faster convergence as compared to the earlier version. Finally, the methodologies mentioned above were combined to formulate a robust iterative optimization strategy that converges to the true process optimum with minimum variability in the search path. One of the major findings of this thesis is that the robust optimal solutions based on the Bayesian parametric uncertainty are much less conservative than their counterparts based on normally distributed parameters.

Due to advances in digital computing much of the baseband signal processing of a communication system has moved into the digital domain from the analog domain. Within the domain of digital communication systems, Software Defined Radios (SDRs) allow for majority of the signal processing tasks to be implemented in reconfigurable digital hardware. However this comes at a cost of higher power and resource requirements. Therefore, highly efficient custom hardware implementations for SDRs are needed to make SDRs feasible for practical use. Efficient custom hardware motivates the use of fixed point arithmetic in the implementation of Digital Signal Processing (DSP) algorithms. This conversion to finite precision arithmetic introduces quantization noise in the system, which significantly affects the performance metrics of the system. As a result, characterizing quantization noise and its effects within a DSP system is an important challenge that needs to be addressed. Current models to do so significantly over-estimate the quantization effects, resulting in an over-allocation of hardware resources to implement a system. Polynomial Chaos Expansion (PCE) is a method that is currently gaining attention in modelling uncertainty in engineering systems. Although it has been used to analyze quantization effects in DSP systems, previous investigations have been limited to simple examples. The purpose of this thesis is to therefore introduce new techniques that allow the application of PCE to be scaled up to larger DSP blocks with many noise sources. Additionally, the thesis introduces design space exploration algorithms that leverage the accuracy of PCE simulations to estimate bitwidths for fixed point implementations of DSP systems. The advantages of using PCE over current modelling techniques will be presented though its application to case studies relevant to practice. These case studies include Sine Generators, Infinite Impulse Response (IIR) filters, Finite Impulse Response (FIR) filters, FM demodulators and Phase Locked Loops (PLLs). / Thesis / Master of Applied Science (MASc)

[EN] This thesis concerns the analysis of differential equations with uncertain input parameters, in the form of random variables or stochastic processes with any type of probability distributions. In modeling, the input coefficients are set from experimental data, which often involve uncertainties from measurement errors. Moreover, the behavior of the physical phenomenon under study does not follow strict deterministic laws. It is thus more realistic to consider mathematical models with randomness in their formulation. The solution, considered in the sample-path or the mean square sense, is a smooth stochastic process, whose uncertainty has to be quantified. Uncertainty quantification is usually performed by computing the main statistics (expectation and variance) and, if possible, the probability density function. In this dissertation, we study random linear models, based on ordinary differential equations with and without delay and on partial differential equations. The linear structure of the models makes it possible to seek for certain probabilistic solutions and even approximate their probability density functions, which is a difficult goal in general. A very important part of the dissertation is devoted to random second-order linear differential equations, where the coefficients of the equation are stochastic processes and the initial conditions are random variables. The study of this class of differential equations in the random setting is mainly motivated because of their important role in Mathematical Physics. We start by solving the randomized Legendre differential equation in the mean square sense, which allows the approximation of the expectation and the variance of the stochastic solution. The methodology is extended to general random second-order linear differential equations with analytic (expressible as random power series) coefficients, by means of the so-called Fröbenius method. A comparative case study is performed with spectral methods based on polynomial chaos expansions. On the other hand, the Fröbenius method together with Monte Carlo simulation are used to approximate the probability density function of the solution. Several variance reduction methods based on quadrature rules and multilevel strategies are proposed to speed up the Monte Carlo procedure. The last part on random second-order linear differential equations is devoted to a random diffusion-reaction Poisson-type problem, where the probability density function is approximated using a finite difference numerical scheme. The thesis also studies random ordinary differential equations with discrete constant delay. We study the linear autonomous case, when the coefficient of the non-delay component and the parameter of the delay term are both random variables while the initial condition is a stochastic process. It is proved that the deterministic solution constructed with the method of steps that involves the delayed exponential function is a probabilistic solution in the Lebesgue sense. Finally, the last chapter is devoted to the linear advection partial differential equation, subject to stochastic velocity field and initial condition. We solve the equation in the mean square sense and provide new expressions for the probability density function of the solution, even in the non-Gaussian velocity case. / [ES] Esta tesis trata el análisis de ecuaciones diferenciales con parámetros de entrada aleatorios, en la forma de variables aleatorias o procesos estocásticos con cualquier tipo de distribución de probabilidad. En modelización, los coeficientes de entrada se fijan a partir de datos experimentales, los cuales suelen acarrear incertidumbre por los errores de medición. Además, el comportamiento del fenómeno físico bajo estudio no sigue patrones estrictamente deterministas. Es por tanto más realista trabajar con modelos matemáticos con aleatoriedad en su formulación. La solución, considerada en el sentido de caminos aleatorios o en el sentido de media cuadrática, es un proceso estocástico suave, cuya incertidumbre se tiene que cuantificar. La cuantificación de la incertidumbre es a menudo llevada a cabo calculando los principales estadísticos (esperanza y varianza) y, si es posible, la función de densidad de probabilidad. En este trabajo, estudiamos modelos aleatorios lineales, basados en ecuaciones diferenciales ordinarias con y sin retardo, y en ecuaciones en derivadas parciales. La estructura lineal de los modelos nos permite buscar ciertas soluciones probabilísticas e incluso aproximar su función de densidad de probabilidad, lo cual es un objetivo complicado en general. Una parte muy importante de la disertación se dedica a las ecuaciones diferenciales lineales de segundo orden aleatorias, donde los coeficientes de la ecuación son procesos estocásticos y las condiciones iniciales son variables aleatorias. El estudio de esta clase de ecuaciones diferenciales en el contexto aleatorio está motivado principalmente por su importante papel en la Física Matemática. Empezamos resolviendo la ecuación diferencial de Legendre aleatorizada en el sentido de media cuadrática, lo que permite la aproximación de la esperanza y la varianza de la solución estocástica. La metodología se extiende al caso general de ecuaciones diferenciales lineales de segundo orden aleatorias con coeficientes analíticos (expresables como series de potencias), mediante el conocido método de Fröbenius. Se lleva a cabo un estudio comparativo con métodos espectrales basados en expansiones de caos polinomial. Por otro lado, el método de Fröbenius junto con la simulación de Monte Carlo se utilizan para aproximar la función de densidad de probabilidad de la solución. Para acelerar el procedimiento de Monte Carlo, se proponen varios métodos de reducción de la varianza basados en reglas de cuadratura y estrategias multinivel. La última parte sobre ecuaciones diferenciales lineales de segundo orden aleatorias estudia un problema aleatorio de tipo Poisson de difusión-reacción, en el que la función de densidad de probabilidad es aproximada mediante un esquema numérico de diferencias finitas. En la tesis también se tratan ecuaciones diferenciales ordinarias aleatorias con retardo discreto y constante. Estudiamos el caso lineal y autónomo, cuando el coeficiente de la componente no retardada i el parámetro del término retardado son ambos variables aleatorias mientras que la condición inicial es un proceso estocástico. Se demuestra que la solución determinista construida con el método de los pasos y que involucra la función exponencial retardada es una solución probabilística en el sentido de Lebesgue. Finalmente, el último capítulo lo dedicamos a la ecuación en derivadas parciales lineal de advección, sujeta a velocidad y condición inicial estocásticas. Resolvemos la ecuación en el sentido de media cuadrática y damos nuevas expresiones para la función de densidad de probabilidad de la solución, incluso en el caso de velocidad no Gaussiana. / [CA] Aquesta tesi tracta l'anàlisi d'equacions diferencials amb paràmetres d'entrada aleatoris, en la forma de variables aleatòries o processos estocàstics amb qualsevol mena de distribució de probabilitat. En modelització, els coeficients d'entrada són fixats a partir de dades experimentals, les quals solen comportar incertesa pels errors de mesurament. A més a més, el comportament del fenomen físic sota estudi no segueix patrons estrictament deterministes. És per tant més realista treballar amb models matemàtics amb aleatorietat en la seua formulació. La solució, considerada en el sentit de camins aleatoris o en el sentit de mitjana quadràtica, és un procés estocàstic suau, la incertesa del qual s'ha de quantificar. La quantificació de la incertesa és sovint duta a terme calculant els principals estadístics (esperança i variància) i, si es pot, la funció de densitat de probabilitat. En aquest treball, estudiem models aleatoris lineals, basats en equacions diferencials ordinàries amb retard i sense, i en equacions en derivades parcials. L'estructura lineal dels models ens fa possible cercar certes solucions probabilístiques i inclús aproximar la seua funció de densitat de probabilitat, el qual és un objectiu complicat en general. Una part molt important de la dissertació es dedica a les equacions diferencials lineals de segon ordre aleatòries, on els coeficients de l'equació són processos estocàstics i les condicions inicials són variables aleatòries. L'estudi d'aquesta classe d'equacions diferencials en el context aleatori està motivat principalment pel seu important paper en Física Matemàtica. Comencem resolent l'equació diferencial de Legendre aleatoritzada en el sentit de mitjana quadràtica, el que permet l'aproximació de l'esperança i la variància de la solució estocàstica. La metodologia s'estén al cas general d'equacions diferencials lineals de segon ordre aleatòries amb coeficients analítics (expressables com a sèries de potències), per mitjà del conegut mètode de Fröbenius. Es duu a terme un estudi comparatiu amb mètodes espectrals basats en expansions de caos polinomial. Per altra banda, el mètode de Fröbenius juntament amb la simulació de Monte Carlo són emprats per a aproximar la funció de densitat de probabilitat de la solució. Per a accelerar el procediment de Monte Carlo, es proposen diversos mètodes de reducció de la variància basats en regles de quadratura i estratègies multinivell. L'última part sobre equacions diferencials lineals de segon ordre aleatòries estudia un problema aleatori de tipus Poisson de difusió-reacció, en què la funció de densitat de probabilitat és aproximada mitjançant un esquema numèric de diferències finites. En la tesi també es tracten equacions diferencials ordinàries aleatòries amb retard discret i constant. Estudiem el cas lineal i autònom, quan el coeficient del component no retardat i el paràmetre del terme retardat són ambdós variables aleatòries mentre que la condició inicial és un procés estocàstic. Es prova que la solució determinista construïda amb el mètode dels passos i que involucra la funció exponencial retardada és una solució probabilística en el sentit de Lebesgue. Finalment, el darrer capítol el dediquem a l'equació en derivades parcials lineal d'advecció, subjecta a velocitat i condició inicial estocàstiques. Resolem l'equació en el sentit de mitjana quadràtica i donem noves expressions per a la funció de densitat de probabilitat de la solució, inclús en el cas de velocitat no Gaussiana. / This work has been supported by the Spanish Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad grant MTM2017–89664–P. I acknowledge the doctorate scholarship granted by Programa de Ayudas de Investigación y Desarrollo (PAID), Universitat Politècnica de València. / Jornet Sanz, M. (2020). Mean square solutions of random linear models and computation of their probability density function [Tesis doctoral]. Universitat Politècnica de València. https://doi.org/10.4995/Thesis/10251/138394