Recent research has focused attention on the concerns of migration in and out of Florida and within the counties themselves. In 1949, Cape Canaveral was established and the boom was on. The character of the state dramatically transformed after 1965, when plans were announced to convert twenty-seven thousand acres of swampland into Walt Disney World. Since then, Orlando's evolution is divided into two eras: before and after Walt Disney World. Orlando has changed from a quiet town whose function was to service the surrounding citrus growing regions in a sparsely populated Orange County to a booming metropolis. Has the growth been for the best? While geographical mobility is frequently analyzed in terms of in-migration, out-migration, and net migration, this thesis will examine the population churn, the sum of in- and out-migration divided by population size. The simple descriptive questions in this thesis are, first, how do Orange County and the Orlando metro area "stack up" against other Florida cities, counties, and metro areas such as: Tampa, Jacksonville, and Miami. Secondly, across 67 Florida counties, what county level characteristics predict the rate of churn? The sample will consist of intra-migration and intermigration movers from a dataset drawn from the 2000 U. S. Census, IRS data, and local data by county, such as, F Cat, Index Crime Rate, and Domestic Violence Rate. The U.S. Census data are compiled from the Census of 2000; most estimates come from data collected by the CPS (Current Population Survey), which the U.S. Census conducts. The Internal Revenue Service migration flow data shows migration patterns by county based on changes in the addresses entered on individual tax returns. Correlation analysis is used to show the strength of association between population churn and the other variables.

Population churn--the population turnover experienced by a community--can have differential effects on a community. Mass society theory suggests that because the churn rate experienced by communities can contribute to their uprooting, fragmentation, and isolation, churn is a potent threat to the stability of our modern day communities. Social capital theory, to the contrary, suggests otherwise. Social capital theory suggests that churn can have positive effects on communities by bringing new migrants with valuable human capital skills and experiences to communities. These migrants bring to their new communities the potential for creating new jobs, spurring economic development, and for initiating housing starts that expand housing options for the poor and minorities. In so doing, they help create and sustain vibrant, growing modern day communities. Yet in spite of the significant role churn may play in determining the health and viability of modern day communities, it has been overlooked in the migration literature, which is mostly dominated by individual-level research on the causes and effects of migration, particularly the pecuniary benefits to movers. Using county-level data and multivariate analyses, this research seeks to fill this gap in the literature by examining the relationship between the community and churn, from the perspectives provided by social capital and mass society theories.