A bicicleta é vista hoje como uma alternativa para melhorar a mobilidade urbana de forma sustentável. Apesar disto, os procedimentos de planejamento disponíveis para o desenvolvimento de infraestruturas cicloviárias ainda não estão totalmente consolidadas. Sendo assim, este estudo visa desenvolver e aplicar um método objetivo para o planejamento de redes cicloviárias com base na mineração de dados desagregados de origem-destino, em recursos de SIG e de técnicas de análise multicritério. É sugerida a realização de três etapas: a) identificação, a partir do perfil de usuários reais, de usuários potenciais, b) planejamento de propostas de redes cicloviárias, e c) comparação entre as redes propostas e as definidas pelo poder municipal, considerando os usuários reais e potenciais e critérios de custos e benefícios. Como resultado positivo, o uso de dados desagregados permitiu mensurar e analisar a proximidade dos usuários às redes, a quantidade de pessoas atendidas e a identificação dos usuários potenciais. Além disso, a análise com base em critérios de custo e de benefício foi capaz de indicar, por exemplo, que a rede cicloviária existente (RCE) na cidade considerada como estudo de caso (São Carlos, SP, Brasil) não serve adequadamente os usuários, quando comparado às redes propostas. / Cycling is seen nowadays as an alternative to improve urban mobility in a sustainable way. Nevertheless, the planning procedures available for developing cycling infrastructures are not yet fully consolidated. This study aims at the development and application of an objective method for planning cycling networks based on data-mining of disaggregated origindestination data, GIS resources and multicriteria analysis techniques. The method involves basically three steps: a) an identification of potential users based on real users profiles, b) planning of proposed cycling networks, and c) a comparison, considering real and potential users, as well as cost-benefit criteria, between the proposed networks and those actually developed by the municipality. As a positive outcome, the use of disaggregated data allows not only a reasonable estimate of the number of people served by the networks, but also a detailed analysis of their proximity to that infrastructure and an identification of potential users. Also, the analysis based on cost-benefit criteria was able to show, for example, that the existing cycling network (ECN) of the city taken as a case study (São Carlos, SP, Brazil) does not properly serve the users, when compared to the proposed networks.

A bicicleta é vista hoje como uma alternativa para melhorar a mobilidade urbana de forma sustentável. Apesar disto, os procedimentos de planejamento disponíveis para o desenvolvimento de infraestruturas cicloviárias ainda não estão totalmente consolidadas. Sendo assim, este estudo visa desenvolver e aplicar um método objetivo para o planejamento de redes cicloviárias com base na mineração de dados desagregados de origem-destino, em recursos de SIG e de técnicas de análise multicritério. É sugerida a realização de três etapas: a) identificação, a partir do perfil de usuários reais, de usuários potenciais, b) planejamento de propostas de redes cicloviárias, e c) comparação entre as redes propostas e as definidas pelo poder municipal, considerando os usuários reais e potenciais e critérios de custos e benefícios. Como resultado positivo, o uso de dados desagregados permitiu mensurar e analisar a proximidade dos usuários às redes, a quantidade de pessoas atendidas e a identificação dos usuários potenciais. Além disso, a análise com base em critérios de custo e de benefício foi capaz de indicar, por exemplo, que a rede cicloviária existente (RCE) na cidade considerada como estudo de caso (São Carlos, SP, Brasil) não serve adequadamente os usuários, quando comparado às redes propostas. / Cycling is seen nowadays as an alternative to improve urban mobility in a sustainable way. Nevertheless, the planning procedures available for developing cycling infrastructures are not yet fully consolidated. This study aims at the development and application of an objective method for planning cycling networks based on data-mining of disaggregated origindestination data, GIS resources and multicriteria analysis techniques. The method involves basically three steps: a) an identification of potential users based on real users profiles, b) planning of proposed cycling networks, and c) a comparison, considering real and potential users, as well as cost-benefit criteria, between the proposed networks and those actually developed by the municipality. As a positive outcome, the use of disaggregated data allows not only a reasonable estimate of the number of people served by the networks, but also a detailed analysis of their proximity to that infrastructure and an identification of potential users. Also, the analysis based on cost-benefit criteria was able to show, for example, that the existing cycling network (ECN) of the city taken as a case study (São Carlos, SP, Brazil) does not properly serve the users, when compared to the proposed networks.

Before the German reunification, Dresden was a city of motorized traffic and cyclist were rare. But in the 90's began a change of transport policy and cycling became more important. This Master Thesis wants to show the current standing of cycling in Dresden. Thats why the results of the "SrV"-study should be analysed with regard to potential cyclists and their journeys. As methods were used a descriptive analysis and the linear discriminant analysis, both used at a personal and journey-specific level of data. As a result, Dresden have to do much more to become a good "cycling-city", so the bike-level wasn't really high in the year 2013. Instead the car is still the mostly used transport vehicle and the proportion in the Modal-Split is only slowly sinking. But this study shows typical characteritics of cyclists and cycling journays of Dresden, so there is a basis to get more people involved to cycle and become a more eco-friendly city.

Before the German reunification, Dresden was a city of motorized traffic and cyclist were rare. But in the 90's began a change of transport policy and cycling became more important. This Master Thesis wants to show the current standing of cycling in Dresden. Thats why the results of the "SrV"-study should be analysed with regard to potential cyclists and their journeys. As methods were used a descriptive analysis and the linear discriminant analysis, both used at a personal and journey-specific level of data. As a result, Dresden have to do much more to become a good "cycling-city", so the bike-level wasn't really high in the year 2013. Instead the car is still the mostly used transport vehicle and the proportion in the Modal-Split is only slowly sinking. But this study shows typical characteritics of cyclists and cycling journays of Dresden, so there is a basis to get more people involved to cycle and become a more eco-friendly city.:Abbildungsverzeichnis i Abkürzungsverzeichnis iii 1. Einleitung 1. 2. Theoretischer Teil 4 2.1 Diskriminanzanalyse 4 2.1.1 Umsetzung im Zweigruppenfall 6 2.1.2 Umsetzung im Mehrgruppenfall 8 2.1.3 Güteprüfung 9 2.2 Datensatz 12 2.3 Literaturrecherche 15 3. Praktischer Teil 23 3.1 Deskriptive Analyse 24 3.1.1 Auswertung auf Personenebene 25 3.1.2 Auswertung auf Wegeebene 33 3.2 Diskriminanzanalyse 40 3.2.1 Anwendung auf Personenebene 40 3.2.2 Anwendung auf Wegeebene 48 4. Fazit 54 5. Kritische Würdigung 58 6. Ausblick 61 Literaturverzeichnis I