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Sinergismo entre eventos clim?ticos extremos, desmatamento e aumento da suscetibilidade a inc?ndios florestais no Estado do Acre / Synergism between extreme weather events, deforestation and increased susceptibility and risk of forest fires in Acre stateTostes, Juliana de Oliveira 29 February 2016 (has links)
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Previous issue date: 2016-02-29 / This research analyzes the temporal and spatial variables that can affect the distribution and
frequency of hot spots in the state of Acre. Given the scarcity of regular spatial information
and long time series for the study area, it was initially carried out a validation between air
temperature and precipitation data in Global Grid Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC),
University of Delaware (UDEL) and Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN) with
data from five Weather Stations Mainstream (EMC) to Acre and region, through an analysis
of precision and accuracy of the data. Regarding precipitation, it was found that both the
GPCC UDEL represented as the average variability significantly throughout the series. In
relation to the air temperature standards, although the accuracy of GHCN and UDEL was low,
it was satisfactory accuracy according to statistical methods. Assuming that the extreme
weather events increase susceptibility to forest fires, then it was carried out an analysis of the
influence of climate variability modes in generating categorized scenarios dry or wet years,
based on the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Harmonic and Spectral (AHE). It was
found that the AHE is not able to identify the intensity of the events, but was satisfactory in
the signal cycles identifying the anomaly, i.e., whether the abnormality SPI was positive or
negative. It was found that the Atlantic signal had greater influence on the precipitation of the
Pacific. For the regions that correspond to Groups 1, 2 and 3 there was an inverse pattern for
precipitation in relation to ENSO compared to the North and East Amazon. Thus, it identified
negative precipitation anomalies during La Ni?a and El Ni?o events during positive events for
the dry and rainy seasons. For the area corresponding to the effect Group 4 was otherwise.
The natural climate variability patterns identified in this study may contribute to the
establishment of strategies for prevention and adaptation to extreme events. Finally, in
Chapter 3 was carried out an analysis of the spatial and temporal patterns of the fire in Acre,
through a discussion of various climatic, environmental and anthropogenic variables that
contribute to its occurrence. Thus, through the Random Forest algorithm were generated
susceptibility maps that estimated the probability of fires and burned in the state. . It was
found that although drought triggers an increase in the number of hot spots, its spatial pattern
is more related to human factors such as the proximity areas already cleared. / A presente pesquisa analisa as vari?veis temporais e espaciais que podem afetar a
distribui??o e frequ?ncia dos focos de calor no estado do Acre. Diante da escassez de dados
regularmente espacializados e com longa s?rie temporal para a ?rea de estudo, inicialmente
foi realizada uma valida??o entre os dados de temperatura do ar e precipita??o em grade do
Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC), Universidade de Delaware (UDEL) e
Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN) com dados de cinco Esta??es
Meteorol?gicas Convencionais (EMC) para o Acre e regi?o, atrav?s de uma an?lise da
precis?o e exatid?o dos dados. Em rela??o ? precipita??o, verificou-se que tanto o GPCC
quanto da UDEL representaram significativamente as variabilidades m?dias ao longo da s?rie.
Em rela??o aos padr?es da temperatura do ar, embora a precis?o do GHCN e da UDEL tenha
sido baixa, a exatid?o foi satisfat?ria segundo os m?todos estat?sticos. Partindo do pressuposto
que os eventos clim?ticos extremos aumentam a suscetibilidade a inc?ndios florestais, em
seguida foi realizada uma an?lise da influ?ncia dos modos de variabilidade clim?tica na
gera??o de cen?rios categorizados de anos secos ou ?midos, baseado no ?ndice de
Precipita??o Padronizado (SPI) e na An?lise Harm?nica e Espectral (AHE). Verificou-se que a
AHE n?o foi capaz de identificar a intensidade dos eventos, mas mostrou-se satisfat?ria na
identifica??o dos ciclos de sinal da anomalia, ou seja, se anomalia do SPI foi positiva ou
negativa. Verificou-se que o sinal do Atl?ntico teve maior influ?ncia sobre a precipita??o do
que o Pac?fico. Para as regi?es que correspondem os Grupos 1, 2 e 3 observou-se um padr?o
inverso para a precipita??o em rela??o ao ENOS, quando comparado com a Amaz?nia Norte e
Oriental. Assim, foram identificadas anomalias negativas de precipita??o durante eventos de
La Ni?a e positivas durante eventos de El Ni?o para as esta??es seca e chuvosa. Para a regi?o
que corresponde ao Grupo 4 o efeito foi contr?rio. Os padr?es de variabilidade natural do
clima identificados nesse trabalho podem contribuir para o estabelecimento de estrat?gias de
preven??o e adapta??o aos eventos extremos. Finalmente, no Cap?tulo 3 foi realizada uma
an?lise sobre o padr?o espacial e temporal do fogo no Acre, atrav?s de uma discuss?o sobre
diversas vari?veis clim?ticas, ambientais e antr?picas que contribuem para a sua ocorr?ncia.
Assim, por meio do algoritmo Random Forest foram gerados mapas de suscetibilidade que
estimaram a probabilidade de ocorr?ncia de inc?ndios e queimadas no estado. Verificou-se
que, embora a estiagem propicie um aumento do n?mero de focos de calor, o seu padr?o
espacial est? mais relacionado a fatores antr?picos, tais como a proximidade de ?reas j? desmatadas.
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Formas e biodisponibilidade de f?sforo no solo em resposta ? adi??o de ?cido c?trico. / Forms and bioavailability of phosphorus in the soil in response to the addition of citric acid.Santos, Sheila Renata January 2012 (has links)
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Previous issue date: 2012 / Coordena??o de Aperfei?oamento de Pessoal de N?vel Superior (Capes) / Melhorar a efici?ncia da absor??o de P no solo pelas culturas, por meio de manejos diferenciados da aduba??o fosfatada, diz respeito a um melhor aproveitamento do nutriente adicionado via fertiliza??o, que significa ganhos em produtividade. Em solos onde predominam argilas de baixa atividade e ?xidos em sua fra??o mineral, a fixa??o de P por meio dos processos de adsor??o e precipita??o torna a nutri??o fosfatada um fator limitante para produ??o da maioria das esp?cies cultiv?veis. O ?nion citrato, derivado da dissocia??o do ?cido c?trico no solo, possui elevado poder complexante de metais. Al?m disso, sua carga negativa garante afinidade com as cargas positivas dos ?xidos no solo, competindo com o fosfato pelos mesmos s?tios de liga??o. Com objetivo de verificar o potencial do ?cido c?trico em aumentar a biodisponibilidade ao milho e modificar as formas de P inorg?nico no solo, testou-se a combina??o das doses 0; 45; 90 e 180 mg dm-3 de P num Neossolo Quartzar?nico e 0; 100; 200 e 400 mg dm-3 de P num Latossolo Vermelho Amarelo, com doses equivalentes a 0; 1; 2 e 4 kg ha-1 de ?cido c?trico, em experimentos em vasos, em condi??es de casa de vegeta??o. No Neossolo Quartzar?nico, 119 mg dm-3 de P e equivalente a 0,8 kg ha-1 de ?cido c?trico proporcionaram m?ximo crescimento das plantas de milho. J? no Latossolo Vermelho Amarelo, a estimativa das doses foi de 96 mg dm-3 de P e equivalente a 2,0 kg ha-1 de ?cido c?trico. A resposta das plantas ? aplica??o do ?cido c?trico deveu-se ? solubiliza??o de formas menos l?beis aumentando as formas mais l?beis de P inorg?nico no solo. Os teores de P na planta e aqueles extra?dos por Mehlich-1e Resina de Troca Ani?nica n?o se correlacionaram quanto ? adi??o de ?cido c?trico no Latossolo Vermelho Amarelo. / Disserta??o (Mestrado) ? Programa de P?s-Gradua??o em Produ??o Vegetal, Universidade Federal dos Vales do Jequitinhonha e Mucuri, 2012. / ABSTRACT To improve the efficiency of absorption, by crops, of P in soil, through differentiated maneuvers of phosphorus fertilization, relates to a better utilization of nutrients added through fertilization, which means productivity gains. In soils with a predominance of low activity clays and oxides in their mineral fraction, the P fixation through the processes of adsorption and precipitation makes phosphorus nutrition a limiting factor for production of most cultivable species. The anion citrate derived from citric acid dissociation of the soil has high metal complexing power. Furthermore, its negative charge ensures an affinity with the positive charges of the oxides in the soil, competing with phosphate for the same binding sites. In order to verify the potential of citric acid to increase the bioavailability for maize and to modify the forms of inorganic P in the soil, there had been tested the combination doses of 0, 45, 90 and 180 mg dm-3 of P in a Typic Quartzipsamment soil and 0; 100, 200 and 400 mg dm-3 of P in a Typic Hapludox soil, with doses of 0, 1, 2 and 4 kg ha-1 of citric acid in experiments conducted in pots under greenhouse conditions. In Typic Quartzipsamment soil, 119 mg dm-3 of P and an equivalent to 0.8 kg ha-1 of citric acid gave maximum growth of maize crops. In the Typic Hapludox soil, the estimated dose was 96 mg dm-3 of P and equivalent to 2.0 kg ha-1 of citric acid. The plant response to the application of citric acid was due to solubilization of less labile forms increasing the more labile forms of inorganic P in soil. The phosphorus content in the plant and those extracted by Mehlich-1 and Anion Exchange Resin were not correlated to the addition of citric acid in the Typic Hapludox soil.
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Obten??o e caracteriza??o de sistemas particulados de quitosana para libera??o g?strica de amoxicilinaFreire, F?tima Duarte 30 March 2015 (has links)
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Previous issue date: 2015-03-30 / A infec??o causada pelo Helicobacter pylori tem sido associado a v?rias doen?as g?stricas, inclusive o c?ncer g?strico. Esta bact?ria coloniza a mucosa g?strica de metade da popula??o do mundo, e os tratamentos dispon?veis s?o mal sucedidos em praticamente um em cada cinco pacientes. Pol?meros mucoadesivos, tais como quitosana, s?o usados como sistemas de libera??o g?stricos para uma melhor libera??o do f?rmaco nos locais de atua??o. Neste trabalho, part?culas de quitosana contendo amoxicilina foram obtidas pelo m?todo de coacerva??o/precipita??o visando uma libera??o controlada do f?rmaco no ambiente do est?mago, no intuito de melhorar a efic?cia terap?utica da amoxicilina no tratamento do Helicobacter pylori. A incorpora??o da amoxicilina foi feita utilizando duas t?cnicas diferentes: durante a forma??o das part?culas e por adsor??o das part?culas formadas .As part?culas foram caracterizadas quanto ao tamanho m?dio, potencial zeta, DSC, FTIR, efici?ncia de encapsula??o e libera??o in vitro em HCl 0,1N. As part?culas apresentaram uma efici?ncia de encapsula??o de 83%, tamanho m?dio de part?cula nanom?trica e potencial zeta positivo (20 mV). A amoxicilina encapsulada nas micropart?culas teve libera??o in vitro de apenas 40 % em 120 minutos. / The infection caused by Helicobacter pylori (H. pylori) is associated with gastroduodenal inflammation can lead to the development of gastritis, gastric or duodenal ulcer and gastric cancer (type 1 carcinogen for stomach cancer). Amoxicillin is used as first-line therapy in the treatment of H. pylori associated to metronidazole or clarithromycin, and a proton pump inhibitor. However, the scheme is not fully effective due to inadequate accumulation of antibiotics in gastric tissue, inadequate efficacy of ecological niche of H. pylori, and other factors. In this context, this study aimed to obtaining and characterization of particulate systems gastrorretentivos chitosan - amoxicillin aiming its use for treatment of H. pylori infections. The particles were obtained by the coacervation method / precipitation using sodium sulfate as precipitating agent and crosslinking and two techniques: addition of amoxicillin during preparation in a single step and the sorption particles prior to amoxycillin prepared by coacervation / precipitation and spray drying. The physicochemical characterization of the particles was performed by SEM, FTIR, DSC, TG and XRD. The in vitro release profile of amoxycillin free and incorporated in the particles was obtained in 0.1 N HCl (pH = 1.2). The particles have higher encapsulation efficiency to 80% spherical shape with interconnected particles or adhered to each other, the nanometric diameter to the systems obtained by coacervation / precipitation and fine for the particles obtained by spray drying. The characterization by FTIR, DSC and XRD showed that the drug was incorporated into the nanoparticles dispersed in the polymeric matrix. Thermal analysis (TG and DSC) indicated that encapsulation provides greater heat stability to the drug. Amoxicillin encapsulated in nanoparticles had slower release compared to free drug. The particles showed release profile with a faster initial stage (burst effect) reaching a maximum at 30 minutes 35% of amoxicillin for the system in 1: 1 ratio relative to the polymer and 80% for the system in the ratio 2: 1. Although simple and provide high encapsulation efficiency of amoxicillin, the process of coacervation, precipitation in one step using sodium sulfate as precipitant / cross-linker must be optimized in order to adjust the release kinetics according to the intended application.
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V?rtices cicl?nicos em altos n?veis sobre o nordeste do Brasil e mudan?as clim?ticas: an?lise para o clima atual e cen?rios futurosPinheiro, Jos? Ueliton 18 March 2015 (has links)
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Previous issue date: 2015-03-18 / Neste trabalho foi estudado a sa?da de modelos de mudan?as clim?ticas do IPCC/AR5/CMIP5 que melhor expressam a atua??o dos V?rtices Cicl?nicos em Altos N?veis (VCANs) no Nordeste Brasileiro (NEB), no clima atual e cen?rios futuros, como tamb?m sua influ?ncia na precipita??o. Para alcan?ar os objetivos propostos na Tese foram feitos quatro ESTUDOS EXPERIMENTAIS. O primeiro, denominado de Piloto, onde estudou-se 13 modelos de mudan?as clim?ticas para avaliar e selecionar o modelo que melhor expressava a atua??o dos VCANs no NEB. O segundo onde, uma vez selecionado o melhor modelo, o MIROC4h, avaliou a efici?ncia desse modelo comparando com dados de rean?lise para um per?odo de 31 anos (1975-2005). O terceiro onde foram analisados os cen?rios clim?ticos futuros do MIROC4h para o per?odo de 21 anos (2015-2035). E o quarto onde foi analisado a contribui??o dos VCANs na precipita??o sobre o NEB atrav?s dos dados de rean?lise do NCEP/NCAR/DOE. Foram utilizadas duas abordagens estat?sticas comparativas nos Estudos Experimentais 1 e 2, a primeira utilizando o N?mero de Dias de Atua??o de VCANs (N.D.A.VCANs) mensais e a segunda usando o comparativo da atua??o de VCANs di?rio, com a utiliza??o dos ?ndices estat?sticos: correla??es de Pearson, Kendall e Spearman, Raiz quadrada do erro quadr?tico m?dio (RMSE), Raiz quadrada do erro quadr?tico m?dio normalizada (NRMSE), Nash-Sutcliffe (NSE), Kling-Gupta (KGE), ?ndice de Concord?ncia de Willmott (d), ?ndice de Propor??o Correta (PC), ?ndice de Sucesso Cr?tico (ISC), Probabilidade de Detec??o (POD), Taxa de alarme Falso (TAF) e Taxa de Tend?ncia (VI?S). E nos Experimentos 3 e 4 foram calculados desvios e m?dias. Os resultados mostraram a viabilidade na representa??o dos VCANs nos modelos de mudan?as clim?ticas do CMIP5, seja para o clima atual como nos cen?rios futuros. Com rela??o a contribui??o dos VCANs para a precipita??o do NEB estes apresentam percentuais que variam de 47,88% (LNE) a 49,89%(NNE) para o per?odo de outubro a mar?o. Sendo que Cear? (49,89%), Piau? (49,49%) e Maranh?o (47,88%) s?o os Estados onde os VCANs induzem mais precipita??o e Alagoas (41,93%) e Sergipe (38,03%) os Estados onde os VCANs induzem menos precipita??o. A proje??o de cen?rio futuro para os VCANs revelaram um desvio negativo 8,97% na ocorr?ncia deste fen?meno no NEB e ?reas adjacentes para o per?odo de 2015 a 2035. O que poder? impactar em -4,08% a precipita??o do NEB neste per?odo. / In this work, was analysed the climate change models's output from IPCC/AR5/CMIP5 that
best express the performance of Upper Tropospheric Cyclonic Vortices (UTCV) in Northeast
Brazil (NEB), its influence on rainfall and the possibility of projection of future climate
scenarios. To achieve the proposed objectives in the thesis were made four EXPERIMENTAL
STUDIES.The first, called Pilot, which were evaluated 13 models of climate change and
selected the model that best expressed the actions of UTCV in the NEB. The second that
evaluated the efficiency of the best model (MIROC4h), comparing it with reanalysis data for a
period of 31 years (1975-2005). The third where the future climate scenarios from MIROC4h
were analyzed for the period of 21 years (2015-2035). And the fourth where it was analyzed
the contribution of UTCV in precipitation over the NEB through the reanalysis data from
NCEP/NCAR/DOE. Two approaches comparative statistics were used in the Experimental
Studies 1 and 2 with the use of statistical indices: Pearson , Kendall and Spearman's
correlations, mean square error of the square root (RMSE), square of the normalized root mean
square error (NRMSE), Nash-Sutcliffe (NSE), Kling-Gupta (KGE), Willmott Index (d)
Proportion Correct Index (PCI), Critical Success Index (CSI), Probability of Detection (POD),
False Alarm Rate (TAF ) and trend rate (BIAS). And in Experiments 3 and 4 were calculated
deviations and averages. The results show that the representation of UTCV in climate change
models of CMIP5 is feasible, either for the past climate and for the projection of future
scenarios. Regarding the contribution of UTCV to precipitate the NEB these present
percentages ranging from 47.88% (LNE) to 49.89% (NNE) for the period from October to
March. Cear? (49.89%), Piau? (49.49%) and Maranh?o (47.88%) are the states where UTCV
induce more rainfall and Alagoas (41.93%) and Sergipe (38.03%) are the states where UTCV
induce less precipitation. The projection of future scenario for UTCV revealed a 8.97% negative
difference in the occurrence of this phenomenon in the NEB and surrounding areas for the
period 2015 to 2035. What may impact -4.08% the precipitation of the NEB.
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Avalia??o da influ?ncia da precipita??o na rede de esgotamento sanit?rio do tipo separador absoluto - Feira de Santana - BASantos, Quelle Rebou?as dos 05 October 2013 (has links)
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Previous issue date: 2013-10-05 / Funda??o de Amparo ? Pesquisa do Estado da Bahia - FAPEB / The objective of this study was to evaluate the influence of stormwater on the energy consumption in the pump stations of the urban sewage system of Feira de Santana city. Data concerning the energy consumption in the pump stations, the water consumption in the area, and the precipitation rate were collected for the time period of 2008-2011. Statistical tests were performed by applying the Spearman?s rank correlation, the Anderson-Darling goodness-of-fit test, the Student?s test t, and the Ljung-Box test. The results showed that, regarding a potential influence of the effective precipitation rate on the energy consumption in the pumps, the correlation not significantly different from zero with a 95% confidence level for all the 19 pump stations. Similar results were obtained for the case of the potential influence of the public water consumption on the energy consumption in the pump stations. However, considering the total energy consumption in the pump stations, the correlation with the effective precipitation is significant, although weak (R=0.30). Thus, it was estimated that 9% of the total energy consumption in the pump stations is explained by the precipitation. By analyzing the correlation between the energy consumption of all the pump stations, it was found that the all possible correlations are weak, and only in 12% of the cases the correlation is significantly different from zero with a 95% confidence level. Moreover, such correlation was not observed in pumping stations installed in series. In addition, seasonality tests applied to the time series precipitation and water consumption revealed seasonality with a one year lag, suggesting good quality of data concerning these parameters. These results point to the hypothesis of potential errors or inconsistency with our study in the data collecting process regarding the energy consumption in the pump stations. A possible explanation lies in the fact that the energy consumption times series was made available in a monthly basis, thus potentially not reflecting precipitation peaks measured in a daily basis. The results of this study, as a preliminary conclusion, point that the impact of precipitation on the overall energy consumption in the wastewater treatment system of Feira de Santana is not significant. / Esta pesquisa teve com objetivo avaliar a influ?ncia da precipita??o no consumo de energia das esta??es elevat?rias do sistema de esgoto da cidade de Feira de Santana. Foram coletados dados de consumo de energia nas esta??es elevat?rias, consumo de ?gua e precipita??o, durante per?odo de 2008-2011. Os testes estat?sticos coeficiente de correla??o de postos de Spearman, teste de qualidade de ajuste de Anderson-Darling, o teste estat?stico t de Student, e a estat?stica de Ljung-Box foram aplicados na an?lise. Os resultados mostram que, em rela??o a uma potencial influ?ncia da precipita??o efetiva no consumo de energia das esta??es elevat?rias, a correla??o n?o ? significativamente diferente de zero com um n?vel de confian?a de 95% para todas as 15 esta??es elevat?rias analisadas. Resultados semelhantes foram obtidos em rela??o ? influ?ncia potencial do consumo p?blico de ?gua no consumo de energia das esta??es elevat?rias. Contudo, considerando o consumo total de energia nas esta??es elevat?rias, foi poss?vel observar uma correla??o significativa, embora fraca, entre a precipita??o efetiva e esse consumo de energia (R=0.30). Assim, calculou-se que 9% deste consumo energ?tico se deve ? precipita??o efetiva. Al?m de estes pontos, a an?lise da correla??o entre o consumo de energia de todas as esta??es revela que todas as correla??es poss?veis s?o fracas, e que apenas em 12% dos casos a correla??o ? significativamente diferente de zero com um n?vel de confian?a de 95%, sendo que esta correla??o n?o se verificou em esta??es elevat?rias que se encontram em s?rie no sistema. Adicionalmente, testes de sazonalidade foram aplicados ?s s?ries temporais de precipita??o e consumo de ?gua, revelando sazonalidade com um ano de atraso, sugerindo boa qualidade de dados relativamente a estes par?metros. Estes resultados apontam para a hip?tese de inconsist?ncia dos dados disponibilizados de consumo de energia nas esta??es em rela??o ao nosso estudo. Uma explica??o poss?vel foi o fato de que os dados de medi??o de energia encontraram-se agregados em m?dias mensais, assim podendo potencialmente n?o refletir picos de precipita??o medidos em uma base di?ria. Contudo, os resultados deste estudo, como conclus?o preliminar, apontam que o impacto da precipita??o no consumo total de energia no sistema de tratamento de ?guas residuais de Feira de Santana dever? ser pouco significativo.
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