This diploma thesis deals with the topic of Early Warning Systems (EWS), a key part of conflict prevention. It applies a model of quantitative analysis of international media outputs on the case of the Mali insurgency in January 2012. As an EWS tool, it analyzes international media represented by the major global press agencies. The main goal of the thesis is to answer the following research question: Did the international media manage to anticipate the outbreak of the conflict in Mali? The answer should also show whether international media can detect growing tensions leading to a conflict and therefore whether they could be used as an EWS tool. The application of the model should, observing the period from August 2011 to the beginning of the insurgency on January 17, 2012, prove whether the conflict could have been anticipated. In order to contextualize the model, structural factors of instability were identified in the discussion of the dynamics of the conflict that has been repeating itself for dozens of years. A discourse analysis of international media during the observed period was also presented on the background of the securitization theory of the Copenhagen school of security studies. The discourse analysis and the quantitative EWS model have both shown that international media have not...

Diploma thesis deals with the identification of the influence of population aging on public finances in the Czech Republic. The thesis describes the effect of population aging on selected items of the state budget with a focus on state expenditures. The greatest attention is paid to old-age pensions. There is also an estimate of the impact of population aging on old-age pensions by the sensitivity coefficient and the prediction of old-age pensions expenditures for 2018-2050. Subsequently attention is given to evaluation the impact on public finances and their sustainability and propose economic and policy recommendations.

The main goal of the diploma thesis is to analyze the development of commodity prices affecting the prices of materials and to prove their impact on the materials. The monitored materials were selected to represent the widest possible range of the construction market. The final result of the work is the prediction of the price of reference object for the next five years.

This thesis wants to explore the forecasting potential of the multi-factor models to predict excess returns of the aggregated portfolio of the European stock mar- ket. These factors provided by Fama and French and Carhart are well-known in the field of asset pricing, we also add several financial and macroeconomic factors according to the literature. We establish a benchmark model of ARIMA and we compare the forecasting errors of OLS and the LSTM neural networks. Both models take the lagged excess returns and the inputs. We measure the performance with the root mean square error and mean absolute error. The results suggest that neural networks are in this particular task capable of bet- ter predictions given the same input as OLS but their forecasting error is not significantly lower according to the Diebold-Mariano test. JEL Classification C45, C53, C61, E37, G11, G15 Keywords Stocks, European market, Neural networks, LSTM, Factor Models, Fama-French, Predic- tions, RMSE Title Does LSTM neural network improve factor mod- els' predictions of the European stock market?

The dissertation deals with prediction of crude oil price and is tailor-made for such companies which are heavily crude oil related. The main dissertation target is to make sure that such companies can get ready for price changes and safeguard themselves against negative consequences. Crude oil prices are the main factor which affects prices of such final products as petrol. It is a well known fact that quantitative predictions are not reliable and all those who are forced to real on such vague data set for their decision-making are reluctant to use them. That’s how we would like to have at least the correct trend information. The dissertation introduces some concepts originally developed within artificial intelligence theory for the crude oil predictions. Specifically common sense algorithms and qualitative interpretation of some aspects of theory of chaos are the main contribution towards expanding of available prediction tools described by the dissertation. A systematic analysis of a sequence of qualitative solutions is the key part of the dissertation.

The purpose of this doctoral thesis is to create a new bankruptcy prediction model and also to design how to use this model for the purposes of credit risk measuring. The starting-point of this work is the analysis of traditional bankruptcy models. It was found out that the traditional bankruptcy model are not enough effective in the current economic conditions and it is necessary to create a new ones. Based on the identified deficiencies of the traditional models a set of two new model series was created. The first series of the created models is based on the use of parametric methods, and the second one is based on the use of newer nonparametric approach. Moreover, a set of factors which are able to identify an imminent bankruptcy was analyzed. It was found, that significant signs of imminent bankruptcy can be identified even five years before the bankruptcy occurs. Based on these findings a new model was created. This model incorporates variables of static and even dynamic character for bankruptcy prediction purposes. The overall classification accuracy of this model is 92.27% of correctly classified active companies and 95.65% of correctly classified bankrupt companies.

The thesis deals with warranty costs and their prediction when providing one-dimensional and two-dimensional warranties. This thesis focuses on the presentation of practically applied methods and procedures which enable suppliers and manufacturers to get the information necessary for rational decision making while providing warranties for complex products as early as in the initial stages of their life cycle. The thesis starts with a concise summary and evaluation of a present state of the issue. In the first part of the thesis the possibilities of warranty costs prediction for complex products are analyzed when using one-dimensional and namely two-dimensional quality warranties. In this part there is a detailed analysis of different possibilities when predicting systems and items reliability. Next, there is introduced the way of integrating warranty costs prediction into the FMEA/FMECA method. In the second part of the thesis there is specified the procedure for determining the moment of warranty period termination using two-dimensional warranty in case sufficient data from complaint procedure is not available. In the third part the time development of warranty costs and related measures are determined, and the way of prediction of their time development is suggested. The way of continuous monitoring, and evaluating warranty costs and related measures are also introduced in this part of the thesis.

This masters thesis is focused on the issue of processor architecture. The ground of this project is a design of a simple processor, which is enriched by modern components in processor architecture such as pipelining, cache memory and branch prediction. The processor has been made in VHDL programming language and was simulated in ModelSim simulation tool.

Title Analysis of the endurance indicators in selected tests in relation to continuous and intermittent loading Objectives The aim of this study was to examine the accuracy of the prediction formulas for indirect estimation VO2max from performances in the field tests. The criterion for comparing estimated values were results from laboratory spiroergometry test. Methods Ten physically active males (24,5 ± 2,5 years, 179,5 ± 6,2 cm, 75,8 ± 4,9 kg, BMI 23,5 ± 1,3 kg/m2 ) performed four different test sessions. Laboratory treadmill test was used for the direct measurement of the maximal oxygen consumption (VO2max) and three field tests for indirect estimation of the VO2max (Cooper test, Yo-Yo Intermittent Recovery Test Level 1 and 2). All the performances from field tests were calculated using prediction formulas. Results Directly measured values of VO2max during laboratory testing were in average 58,24 ± 2,77 ml.kg-1 .min-1 . Indirectly estimated values of VO2max from performances in the Cooper test were in average 61,15 ± 3,73 ml.kg-1 .min-1 , in Yo-Yo IRT1 52,46 ± 2,51 ml.kg-1 .min-1 and in Yo-Yo IRT2 53,19 ± 1,56 ml.kg-1 .min-1 . There was found large positive correlation between laboratory testing and Cooper test (r = 0,76). This correlation was the only one statistically significant. The...

The thesis is focused on financial analysis of the building company PRAGIS a.s. This thesis contains the theoretical and practical part. The theoretical part deals with the methods of financial analysis. The practical part focuses on the application of selected methods for financial analysis of the company PRAGIS a.s. between years 2005 and 2010.