Introduction: The index of new cars’ climate impact (Trafikverket 2010) calculated a reduction factor to quantify the positive impact of renewable fuels on CO2 emissions for new cars in Sweden 2009. Although uncertainty for many input parameters is acknowledged, all calculations were made with point estimates. Aim: The aim of this study was to verify consumer recommendations based on carbon dioxide emissions of new cars by re-assessing the CO2 emissions considering the uncertainty in input data. The data uncertainty was quantified by using probabilistic risk assessment methodology. The objectives were (1) to calculate the possible reduction of CO2 emissions for new cars in Sweden accounting for uncertainties; (2) to identify the most influential factors by conducting a sensitivity analysis; and (3) to assess the implications of interval analysis and probabilistic modelling for epistemic uncertainty in this context and thereby to contribute to the discussion on which method is the most appropriate to support decision making. Method: Calculations were performed with the deterministic model proposed by Trafikverket (2010) using probability distributions (Bayesian probability distributions assigned by expert judgements) and intervals as model input. Probabilistic modelling was implemented as Monte Carlo simulation with uniform distributions and triangular distributions in Matlab. Interval calculations were done by hand. Results: The best estimate from probabilistic modelling of CO2 reduction when using E85 as a fuel of 30% (95% confidence interval = 10% to 52%) is in a similar range as the 20% given by Trafikverket (2010). The best estimate of 28% decrease for gas cars (95% confidence interval = 3% to 44%) is lower than the originally proposed 42%, but still in a similar range. The difference is due to the large extent of optimistic values taken by Trafikverket (2010). The interval analysis produced a wider range. For ethanol driven cars, a CO2 reduction of 68%, an increase of 14% or anything in between is calculated, for cars operated on gas the result is a CO2 reduction of 59%, an increase of 29% or anything in between. Conclusions: The use of biofuels most likely reduces CO2 emissions. The CO2 emissions from the production of the biofuel are the most influential factors. The recommendations of Trafikverket to the consumers are still valid after probabilistic recalculation. Probabilistic modelling is more appropriate than interval analysis to guide authority and consumer decisions as it allows conclusions to be drawn and therefore can support decision making.

Sistemų gedimo modeliavimas paprastai vykdomas taikant taip vadinamus gedimų medžius. Sistemos gedimo tikimybės ir gedimo atsiradimo priežasčių vertinimas dažniausiai atliekamas sudarant minimalių kirtimų aibę (MCS) ir pagal ją įvertinant gedimo tikimybę. Pastaruosius dvidešimt metų tiksliam gedimo tikimybės vertinimui yra taikoma dvejetainė sprendimų diagrama (BDD). Tačiau BDD sudarymo ir taikymo metodika vis dar yra tobulinama. Iki šiol Lietuvoje sistemos gedimo tikimybės vertinimui BDD dar nebuvo taikyta. Pristatant atliktą darbą aprašomi pagrindiniai MCS ir BDD sudarymo metodai bei jų taikymo ypatybės. Taip pat pateikiamas Kauno hidroelektrinės užtvankos vartų valdymo sistemos gedimo modelis ir gedimo tikimybės vertinimas. Šiuo tikslu buvo taikomi skirtingi MCS ir BDD sudarymo metodai bei atitinkamos programinės priemonės. Atlikus bandomuosius skaičiavimus taip pat pateikiamas gautų rezultatų palyginimas. Darbe apibūdinami pagrindiniai MCS ir BDD taikymo privalumai ir trūkumai bei pristatoma naujai sukurta programinė priemonė „DemoITE“. Taikant išanalizuotus algoritmus bei sukurtą programinę priemonę „DemoITE“ buvo ištirtos ir nustatytos sistemos gedimo priežastys bei tiksliai įvertinta sistemos gedimo tikimybė. Be to, pasiūlyta bazinių įvykių rangavimo principas, įgalinantis gauti mažiausią BDD struktūrą. / Modelling of system failure usually is performed applying so-called fault trees. Assessment of system failure probability and failure occurrence causes usually is performed developing a minimal cut-set (MCS) and according to it evaluating probability of system failure. The last twenty years a binary decision diagram (BDD) has been applied for the exact evaluation of system failure. However, a methodology of creation and application of BDD is still under development. Till now in Lithuania for the assessment of system failure probability BDD has not been applied yet. Presenting a performed work the main methods of development of MCS and BDD as well as features of their application is described. Also, the model and assessment of failure of Kaunas hydropower dam gates’ control system is presented. For this task the different methods of development of MCS and BDD as well as corresponding software was applied. Having performed the testing calculations a comparison of results is presented too. In the work the main advantages and disadvantages of MCS and BDD application are described and newly created software “DemoITE” is introduced. The developed algorithms and universal software “DemoITE” is used for visualization of failure causes and for exact estimation of the investigated system failure probability. Also, it is proposed the order of basic events on purpose to design the least BDD.

Necessary information about soil properties, which is needed for designers and constructors, is obtained in each construction site while examining physical and mechanical properties of soils. Soil strength parameters and using them determined soil bearing resistance usually are defined with some errors. If we know the reasons of errors, disadvantages of testing equipment could be eliminated, methodology of data evaluation could be developed, soil parameters could be determined more precisely and foundation designed more economically. At present triaxial and direct shear tests are the most common tests for determination of soil shear strength parameters in laboratories. Different values of soil shear strength parameters are determined using laboratory equipment of various types. Triaxial test is the most widely used method for determination of soil shear strength parameters. This is one of the most reliable methods to model stress-strain state of ground. It is assumed that soil sample deforms uniformly during the triaxial test. But it is not often the case that a sample in triaxial apparatus deforms uniformly. Questions arise, what is stress-strain distribution in soil sample, when a load is transmitted in a prescribed way? What influence does a non-uniformity have on the soil strength parameters and on foundation size calculated using determined soil strength parameters? Why sandy soil strength parameters obtained from triaxial test are bigger than the one’s, obtained... [to full text] / Projektuojant ir statant įvairius pramoninius ir civilinius pastatus, visada reikalingi duomenys, kurie apibūdintų gruntų, sudarančių pastatų pagrindus, fizines ir mechanines savybes. Tokia projektuotojams ir statybos specialistams būtina informacija gaunama tiriant gruntų fizines, mechanines savybes kiekvienoje statybų aikštelėje. Šių savybių rodikliai ir pagal juos apskaičiuotas pagrindo stiprumas nustatomi su tam tikromis paklaidomis. Atskleidus tų paklaidų priežastis, šalinami tyrimo prietaisų trūkumai, tobulinami tyrimo duomenų apdorojimo metodai, tiksliau nustatomi grunto stiprumo rodikliai, ekonomiškiau projektuojami pamatai. Šiuo metu grunto kerpamojo stiprumo rodikliai dažniausiai nustatomi laboratorijose triašio slėgio ir tiesioginio kirpimo aparatais. Šių savybių rodikliai nustatyti įvairių konstrukcijų prietaisais gaunami skirtingi. Įtempimų ir deformacijų būvis grunto pagrinde geriau modeliuojamas triašio slėgio aparatu nei tiesioginio kirpimo aparatu, todėl triašio slėgio aparatas šiuo metu yra plačiai naudojamas pasaulyje nustatant grunto kerpamojo stiprumo savybių rodiklius. Daroma prielaida, kad bandinys bandymo metu deformuojasi vienodai. Šis teiginys yra pagrindinė triašio bandymo idėja. Tačiau dažniausiai bandinys deformuojasi nevienodai dėl grunto bandinio viršaus ir apačios horizontalių poslinkių suvaržymo, bandinio aukščio, nepakankamo drenavimo, guminės membranos poveikio, jo savojo svorio ir kt. Baigtinių elementų metodo analizė taip pat rodo, kad... [toliau žr. visą tekstą]

Projektuojant ir statant įvairius pramoninius ir civilinius pastatus, visada reikalingi duomenys, kurie apibūdintų gruntų, sudarančių pastatų pagrindus, fizines ir mechanines savybes. Tokia projektuotojams ir statybos specialistams būtina informacija gaunama tiriant gruntų fizines, mechanines savybes kiekvienoje statybų aikštelėje. Šių savybių rodikliai ir pagal juos apskaičiuotas pagrindo stiprumas nustatomi su tam tikromis paklaidomis. Atskleidus tų paklaidų priežastis, šalinami tyrimo prietaisų trūkumai, tobulinami tyrimo duomenų apdorojimo metodai, tiksliau nustatomi grunto stiprumo rodikliai, ekonomiškiau projektuojami pamatai. Šiuo metu grunto kerpamojo stiprumo rodikliai dažniausiai nustatomi laboratorijose triašio slėgio ir tiesioginio kirpimo aparatais. Šių savybių rodikliai nustatyti įvairių konstrukcijų prietaisais gaunami skirtingi. Įtempimų ir deformacijų būvis grunto pagrinde geriau modeliuojamas triašio slėgio aparatu nei tiesioginio kirpimo aparatu, todėl triašio slėgio aparatas šiuo metu yra plačiai naudojamas pasaulyje nustatant grunto kerpamojo stiprumo savybių rodiklius. Daroma prielaida, kad bandinys bandymo metu deformuojasi vienodai. Šis teiginys yra pagrindinė triašio bandymo idėja. Tačiau dažniausiai bandinys deformuojasi nevienodai dėl grunto bandinio viršaus ir apačios horizontalių poslinkių suvaržymo, bandinio aukščio, nepakankamo drenavimo, guminės membranos poveikio, jo savojo svorio ir kt. Baigtinių elementų metodo analizė taip pat rodo, kad... [toliau žr. visą tekstą] / Necessary information about soil properties, which is needed for designers and constructors, is obtained in each construction site while examining physical and mechanical properties of soils. Soil strength parameters and using them determined soil bearing resistance usually are defined with some errors. If we know the reasons of errors, disadvantages of testing equipment could be eliminated, methodology of data evaluation could be developed, soil parameters could be determined more precisely and foundation designed more economically. At present triaxial and direct shear tests are the most common tests for determination of soil shear strength parameters in laboratories. Different values of soil shear strength parameters are determined using laboratory equipment of various types. Triaxial test is the most widely used method for determination of soil shear strength parameters. This is one of the most reliable methods to model stress-strain state of ground. It is assumed that soil sample deforms uniformly during the triaxial test. But it is not often the case that a sample in triaxial apparatus deforms uniformly. Questions arise, what is stress-strain distribution in soil sample, when a load is transmitted in a prescribed way? What influence does a non-uniformity have on the soil strength parameters and on foundation size calculated using determined soil strength parameters? Why sandy soil strength parameters obtained from triaxial test are bigger than the one’s, obtained... [to full text]

This dissertation thesis deals with application of probabilistic approach to assessment of earthing system safety in distribution networks, especially for cases with common earthing of high and low voltage side of distribution transformers HV/LV. In these cases, the increased potential during fault might be transferred from high voltage to low voltage network and thus the individuals from public can be exposed to increased risk. Thus, for these cases were in this thesis defined expectable touch scenarios together with the resulting risk imposed on individuals from the public. Based on the results it seems that adoption of probabilistic approach for these cases of earthing systems might be more suitable compared to the conventional deterministic worst case approach. In accordance to the aims of the thesis, a thorough analysis of currently adopted probabilistic approaches was carried out as well and it was pointed out to some new possible simplifications in the adopted probabilistic based methodologies. For example, it seems that appropriate modelling of human body resistance by the full lognormal distribution is not completely necessary and similar results can be obtained when only the resistance for 50 % of population together with c3 and c4 fibrillation curves are used. Much of the work was also devoted to the determination of possible uncertainty of calculated risk of evaluated earthing system, especially due to inappropriate modelling of earthing system. The appropriateness of different earthing system modelling methods together with other parameters on the value of calculated risk was investigated through conducting sensitivity analysis. Based on the analysis results it seems, that due to using more, or less simplified modelling method, a possible underrating in the resulting risk of about 40 % (about half an order/decade) is expectable. On the other hand, the change of parameters related directly to calculation of fibrillation probability seems to exhibit greater change in calculated risk by up to units of orders/decades.

Probabilistic assessment and life cycle management of engineering components and systems in a nuclear power plant is intended to ensure safe and efficient operation of energy generation over its entire life. The CANDU reactor core consists of 380-480 pressure tubes, which are like miniature pressure vessels that contain natural uranium fuel. Pressure tubes operate under severe temperature and radiation conditions, which result in degradation with ageing. Presence of flaws in a pressure tube makes it vulnerable to delayed hydride cracking (DHC), which may lead to rupture or break-before-leak situation. Therefore, assessment of flaws in the pressure tubes is considered an integral part of a reactor core assessment program. The main objective of the thesis is to develop advanced probabilistic and mechanical stress field models for the assessment of flaws. The flaw assessment models used by the industries are based on deterministic upper/lower bound values for the variables and they ignore uncertainties associated with system parameters. In this thesis, explicit limit state equations are formulated and first order reliability method is employed for reliability computation, which is more efficient than simulation-based methods. A semi-probabilistic approach is adopted to develop an assessment model, which consists of a mechanics-based condition (or equation) involving partial factors that are calibrated to a specified reliability level. This approach is applied to develop models for DHC initiation and leak-before-break assessments. A novel feature of the proposed method is that it bridges the gap between a simple deterministic analysis and complex simulations, and it is amenable to practical applications. The nuclear power plant systems are not easily accessible for inspection and data collection due to exposure to high radiation. For this reason, small samples of pressure tubes are inspected at periodic intervals and small sample of data so collected are used as input to probabilistic analysis. The pressure tube flaw assessment is therefore confounded by large sampling uncertainties. Therefore, determination of adequate sample size is an important issue. In this thesis, a risk informed approach is proposed to define sample size requirement for flaw assessment. Notch-tip stress field is a key factor in any flaw assessment model. Traditionally, linear elastic fracture mechanics (LEFM) and its extension, serves the basis for determination of notch-tip stress field for elastic and elastic-perfectly-plastic material, respectively. However, the LEFM solution is based on small deformation theory and fixed crack geometry, which leads to singular stress and strain field at the crack-tip. The thesis presents new models for notch and crack induced stress fields based on the deformed geometry. In contrast with the classical solution based on small deformation theory, the proposed model uses the Cauchy's stress definition and boundary conditions which are coupled with the deformed geometry. This formulation also incorporates the rotation near the crack-tip, which leads to blunting and displacement of the crack-tip. The solution obtained based on the final deformed configuration yields a non-singular stress field at the crack-tip and a non-linear variation of stress concentration factor for both elastic and elastic-perfectly-plastic material. The proposed stress field formulation approach is applied to formulate an analytical model for estimating the threshold stress intensity factor (KIH) for DHC initiation. The analytical approach provides a relationship between KIH and temperature that is consistent with experimental results.

Probabilistic assessment and life cycle management of engineering components and systems in a nuclear power plant is intended to ensure safe and efficient operation of energy generation over its entire life. The CANDU reactor core consists of 380-480 pressure tubes, which are like miniature pressure vessels that contain natural uranium fuel. Pressure tubes operate under severe temperature and radiation conditions, which result in degradation with ageing. Presence of flaws in a pressure tube makes it vulnerable to delayed hydride cracking (DHC), which may lead to rupture or break-before-leak situation. Therefore, assessment of flaws in the pressure tubes is considered an integral part of a reactor core assessment program. The main objective of the thesis is to develop advanced probabilistic and mechanical stress field models for the assessment of flaws. The flaw assessment models used by the industries are based on deterministic upper/lower bound values for the variables and they ignore uncertainties associated with system parameters. In this thesis, explicit limit state equations are formulated and first order reliability method is employed for reliability computation, which is more efficient than simulation-based methods. A semi-probabilistic approach is adopted to develop an assessment model, which consists of a mechanics-based condition (or equation) involving partial factors that are calibrated to a specified reliability level. This approach is applied to develop models for DHC initiation and leak-before-break assessments. A novel feature of the proposed method is that it bridges the gap between a simple deterministic analysis and complex simulations, and it is amenable to practical applications. The nuclear power plant systems are not easily accessible for inspection and data collection due to exposure to high radiation. For this reason, small samples of pressure tubes are inspected at periodic intervals and small sample of data so collected are used as input to probabilistic analysis. The pressure tube flaw assessment is therefore confounded by large sampling uncertainties. Therefore, determination of adequate sample size is an important issue. In this thesis, a risk informed approach is proposed to define sample size requirement for flaw assessment. Notch-tip stress field is a key factor in any flaw assessment model. Traditionally, linear elastic fracture mechanics (LEFM) and its extension, serves the basis for determination of notch-tip stress field for elastic and elastic-perfectly-plastic material, respectively. However, the LEFM solution is based on small deformation theory and fixed crack geometry, which leads to singular stress and strain field at the crack-tip. The thesis presents new models for notch and crack induced stress fields based on the deformed geometry. In contrast with the classical solution based on small deformation theory, the proposed model uses the Cauchy's stress definition and boundary conditions which are coupled with the deformed geometry. This formulation also incorporates the rotation near the crack-tip, which leads to blunting and displacement of the crack-tip. The solution obtained based on the final deformed configuration yields a non-singular stress field at the crack-tip and a non-linear variation of stress concentration factor for both elastic and elastic-perfectly-plastic material. The proposed stress field formulation approach is applied to formulate an analytical model for estimating the threshold stress intensity factor (KIH) for DHC initiation. The analytical approach provides a relationship between KIH and temperature that is consistent with experimental results.