Railroad bridges are the most important connection parts of railroad networks. These bridges are exposed to heavier train loads compared to highway bridges as well as various detrimental ambient conditions during their life span. The railroad bridges in Turkey are mostly constructed during the late Ottoman and first periods of the Turkish Republic / therefore, they are generally close to about 100 years of age / their inspection and maintenance works are essential. Structural health monitoring (SHM) techniques are widely used around the world in order to increase the effectiveness of the inspection and maintenance works and also evaluate structural reliability. Application of SHM methods on railway bridges by static and dynamic measurements over short and long durations give important structural information about bridge members&rsquo / load level and overall bridge structure in terms of vibration frequencies, deflections, etc. Structural Reliability analysis provides further information about the safety of a structural system and becomes even more efficient when combined with the SHM studies. In this study, computer modeling and SHM techniques are used for identifying structural condition of a steel truss railroad bridge in Usak, Turkey, which is composed of six spans with 30 m length each. The first two spans of the bridge were rebuilt about 50 years ago, which had construction plans and are selected as pilot case for SHM and evaluation studies in this thesis. Natural frequencies are obtained by using 4 accelerometers and a dynamic data acquisition system (DAS). Furthermore, mid span vertical deflection member strains and bridge accelerations are obtained using a DAS permanently left on site and then compared with the computer model analyses results. SHM system is programmed for triggering by the rail load sensors developed at METU and an LVDT to collect mid span deflection high speed data from all sensors during train passage. The DAS is also programmed to collect slow speed data (once at every 15 minutes) for determination of average ambient conditions such as temperature and humidity and all bridge sensors during long term monitoring. Structural capacity and reliability indices for stress levels of bridge members are determined for the measured and simulated train loads to determine structural condition of bridge members and connections. Earthquake analyses and design checks for bridge members are also conducted within the scope of this study.

This theses deals with productivity and economic performance of small and medium-sized enterprises of chosen sector of manufacturing industry in Czech Republic. The main goal of this thesis is to assess the relation between labour productivity and economic performance in the selected sector of furniture manufacture. Required data are gained from database Albertina. The theses is devided into two sectors. The first part of thesis describes scientific findings about productivity and economic performance.Practical part focuses on analysis of labour productivity and economic performance of chosen companies. The last section of pratical part is devoted to proving the relations between labour productivity and economic performance represented by indicator ROA and indexes of financial health: IN99 and Reliability index. Regression and correlation analysis evaluates described relations from the static and dynamic view.

The efficient evaluation of reliability index is of considerable importance in the assessment of component reliability and reliability-based structural optimization. In this thesis, the structural reliabiltiy analysis is performed using the random sampling techniques such as traditional Monte Carlo simulation and the analytical techniques such as first-order reliability method. The feasibility of Gauss quadrature points as means of target sampling of design space and generating accurate first- and second-order response surface models of failure functions is examined. Parametric uncertainty is considered by probabilistic modeling of design parameters. Various alternative approaches for estimation of component reliability index are examined with application to two structural problems: ply failure in a multidirectional composite laminate and axial buckling of a composite circular cylinder. The probabilistic sensitivity analysis is performed to measure the influence of each random variable on the estimated reliability index. The advantages and disadvantages of each approach are discussed and the approach considered the most efficient in terms of accuracy and computational requirements is identified. Furthermore, the most efficient approach is applied in reliability-based structural optimization of a composite circular cylinder with ply failure and axial buckling constraints. The optimization problem is solved using sequential quadratic programming based on sequential local response surface approximations of failure functions. The optimization results are presented for different geometric properties, laminate configurations, and coefficients of variation.

Neste trabalho avalia-se a confiabilidade de tubos circulares de concreto armado submetidos à compressão diametral utilizada no controle de qualidade da produção. O estudo envolve uma parte experimental e uma teórica. Na parte experimental foram ensaiados 32 tubos divididos em duas séries de 16 tubos de diâmetros nominais de 800 mm e 1200 mm. Cada série era formada por 12 tubos tipo ponta e bolsa (PB) e 4 tubos tipo ponta sem bolsa (PSB). Na parte teórica, os tubos foram analisados por um programa computacional baseado no método dos elementos finitos desenvolvido para pórticos planos considerando as não-linearidades física e geométrica. Na análise de confiabilidade, as funções de estado limite foram determinadas segundo o Método da Superfície de Resposta. Os resultados numéricos e experimentais da curva força versus deslocamento apresentaram boa concordância e indicaram que o tubo se comportou como um anel circular, uma vez que os tubos tipo PSB apresentaram forças últimas da ordem de 4% e 12% maiores que as obtidos para os tubos PB, respectivamente para os diâmetros nominais de 800 mm e 1200 mm. Entretanto, a presença da bolsa influenciou no valor da força de fissuração, sendo 6,4% e 33% maior para os tubos PB em relação aos tubos PSB para os diâmetros nominais de 800 mm e 1200 mm, respectivamente. A teoria de confiabilidade mostrou que a probabilidade de falha dos tubos de concreto para atender ao ensaio de compressão diametral foi fortemente influenciada pelo controle de qualidade dos materiais utilizados na fabricação dos tubos. Ainda, foi observado que os tubos analisados apresentaram índice de confiabilidade superior a 3,8, para atender ao ensaio de compressão diametral. Dentre as variabilidades mais influentes no cálculo do índice de confiabilidade, destacam-se a resistência à compressão do concreto, a espessura do tubo e a posição da armadura. / This work evaluates the reliability of circular reinforced concrete pipes subjected to diametrical compression considering the quality control of the production. The study includes experimental and theoretical parts. In the experimental part, 32 pipes divided in two series of 16 pipes according to the nominal diameter of 800 mm and 1200 mm were tested. Each series was composed by 12 spigot and pocket pipes (PB) and 4 ogee joint pipes (PSB). In the theoretical part, the pipes were analyzed using a computational program based on finite element method developed for frame structures considering physical and geometrical nonlinearities. In reliability analysis, the limit state functions were determined according to the Method of Response Surface. Numerical and experimental results of the loading versus displacement curves were well agreed and they indicated that the pipe behaves as a circular ring, once the PSB pipes presented maximum loads 4% and 12% higher than those obtained for PB pipes, respectively for nominal diameters of 800 mm and 1200 mm. However, the presence of pocket influenced the cracking loading, with 6.4% and 33% higher for PB pipes in relation to PSB pipes for the nominal diameters of 800 mm and 1200 mm, respectively. The reliability theory showed that the probability of failure of concrete pipes to meet the diametrical compression test was strongly influenced by the quality control of materials used in manufacturing the pipes. Also, it was observed that analyzed pipes presented reliability index greater than 3.8, to meet the diametrical compression test. Among the most influential variabi1ities in evaluating of reliability index, the concrete compressive strength, the pipe thickness and the position of the reinforcement in the pipe can be highlighted.

In this dissertation, a study is conducted to develop a probability based load and resistance factor design criterion for structural members considering the local conditions of Turkey. The Advanced First Order Second Moment (AFOSM) procedure is utilized as the probabilistic method of analysis. Various sources of uncertainties associated with concrete compressive strength, yielding and ultimate strength of reinforcing steel bars and the dimensions of beams, columns and shear walls are analyzed and quantified. The resistance statistics for different failure modes of different types of reinforced concrete structural members are computed by using the resistance parameters within the framework of reliability analysis. Structural load effects of dead, live, wind, snow and earthquake loads are analyzed considering the uncertainties in these loads. For different load combinations, the safety levels corresponding to the current design practice are evaluated in terms of the reliability indexes for reinforced concrete beam, column and shear wall design in flexure and shear, and also column design in combined action of flexure and axial load. Depending on this evaluation and the reliability index values reported from other countries, target reliability indexes are selected for different load combinations and different failure modes of structural members. Finally, a new set of load and resistance factors corresponding to selected target reliabilities and levels of uncertainties are proposed for each different failure modes of the structural members considered in this study, separately.

Neste trabalho avalia-se a confiabilidade de tubos circulares de concreto armado submetidos à compressão diametral utilizada no controle de qualidade da produção. O estudo envolve uma parte experimental e uma teórica. Na parte experimental foram ensaiados 32 tubos divididos em duas séries de 16 tubos de diâmetros nominais de 800 mm e 1200 mm. Cada série era formada por 12 tubos tipo ponta e bolsa (PB) e 4 tubos tipo ponta sem bolsa (PSB). Na parte teórica, os tubos foram analisados por um programa computacional baseado no método dos elementos finitos desenvolvido para pórticos planos considerando as não-linearidades física e geométrica. Na análise de confiabilidade, as funções de estado limite foram determinadas segundo o Método da Superfície de Resposta. Os resultados numéricos e experimentais da curva força versus deslocamento apresentaram boa concordância e indicaram que o tubo se comportou como um anel circular, uma vez que os tubos tipo PSB apresentaram forças últimas da ordem de 4% e 12% maiores que as obtidos para os tubos PB, respectivamente para os diâmetros nominais de 800 mm e 1200 mm. Entretanto, a presença da bolsa influenciou no valor da força de fissuração, sendo 6,4% e 33% maior para os tubos PB em relação aos tubos PSB para os diâmetros nominais de 800 mm e 1200 mm, respectivamente. A teoria de confiabilidade mostrou que a probabilidade de falha dos tubos de concreto para atender ao ensaio de compressão diametral foi fortemente influenciada pelo controle de qualidade dos materiais utilizados na fabricação dos tubos. Ainda, foi observado que os tubos analisados apresentaram índice de confiabilidade superior a 3,8, para atender ao ensaio de compressão diametral. Dentre as variabilidades mais influentes no cálculo do índice de confiabilidade, destacam-se a resistência à compressão do concreto, a espessura do tubo e a posição da armadura. / This work evaluates the reliability of circular reinforced concrete pipes subjected to diametrical compression considering the quality control of the production. The study includes experimental and theoretical parts. In the experimental part, 32 pipes divided in two series of 16 pipes according to the nominal diameter of 800 mm and 1200 mm were tested. Each series was composed by 12 spigot and pocket pipes (PB) and 4 ogee joint pipes (PSB). In the theoretical part, the pipes were analyzed using a computational program based on finite element method developed for frame structures considering physical and geometrical nonlinearities. In reliability analysis, the limit state functions were determined according to the Method of Response Surface. Numerical and experimental results of the loading versus displacement curves were well agreed and they indicated that the pipe behaves as a circular ring, once the PSB pipes presented maximum loads 4% and 12% higher than those obtained for PB pipes, respectively for nominal diameters of 800 mm and 1200 mm. However, the presence of pocket influenced the cracking loading, with 6.4% and 33% higher for PB pipes in relation to PSB pipes for the nominal diameters of 800 mm and 1200 mm, respectively. The reliability theory showed that the probability of failure of concrete pipes to meet the diametrical compression test was strongly influenced by the quality control of materials used in manufacturing the pipes. Also, it was observed that analyzed pipes presented reliability index greater than 3.8, to meet the diametrical compression test. Among the most influential variabi1ities in evaluating of reliability index, the concrete compressive strength, the pipe thickness and the position of the reinforcement in the pipe can be highlighted.

[pt] Este trabalho apresenta os resultados da aplicação de análises probabilísticas na avaliação da estabilidade de taludes, com base no caso da ruptura de um quebra-mar construído sobre argila mole no Terminal Portuário de Sergipe, em outubro de 1989. Realizou-se uma análise estatística das características geotécnicas dos materiais presentes na obra, enfatizando a variabilidade inerente dos dados. Nas análises probabilísticas, foram adotados três métodos: FOSM, Estimativas Pontuais e Simulação de Monte Carlo. São apresentados os conceitos básicos de confiabilidade e probabilidade de ruptura e as hipóteses e etapas de cálculo consideradas em cada método. Discutem-se brevemente os diferentes métodos de equilíbrio limite utilizados para superfícies poligonais de ruptura. Três cenários foram estudados, em relação aos procedimentos adotados: análises em tensões totais, com a resistência da argila mole obtida por ensaios de campo e laboratório; análises em tensões efetivas, com o ângulo de atrito da argila oriundo de ensaios triaxiais, e análises em tensões efetivas, com o ângulo de atrito da argila obtido de retroanálise da ruptura ocorrida na obra. Observou-se que para os três cenários os valores de probabilidades de ruptura foram, respectivamentem, da ordem de: 1/70, 1/2100 e 1/30. Além disso, ao considerar as metodologias de cálculo probabilístico por FOSM e Estimativas Pontuais, os resultados foram mais conservadores em relação a Simulação de Monte Carlo. / [en] This work aims at applying available methods of probabilistic analysis for assessing the stability of a breakwater built on soft clay at the Sergipe Terminal, gathering information on the existent materials in the field and a statistical analysis of the geotechnical parameters, emphasizing the inherent variability as part of the research. Three probabilistic techniques of analysis have been used: FOSM, Point Estimates and Monte Carlo Simulation. The hypotheses, calculation steps and basic concepts of reliability index and probability of failure are presented, with brief discussions on the different limit equilibrium procedures used for polygonal surfaces. Three scenarios were studied, regarding the soft clay parameters: total stress analysis, considering undrained loading, effective stress analysis with effective friction angle from triaxial tests, and effective stress analysis with effective friction angle from back analysis of a previous failure. For the three scenarios, the probability of failure values were, respectively around: 1/70, 1/2100 and 1/30. Besides this, when using the FOSM and Point Estimates probabilistic techniques, the results proved to be more conservative, in comparison to Monte Carlo Simulation.

[pt] Este trabalho apresenta os resultados da aplicação de análises probabilísticas na avaliação da estabilidade de taludes, com base no caso da ruptura de uma barragem de rejeito que rompeu em janeiro de 2019. Realizou-se uma análise estatística dos parâmetros geotécnicos dos materiais presentes na obra, enfatizando a variabilidade inerente dos dados. Nas análises probabilísticas, foi adotado os métodos FOSM. São apresentados os conceitos básicos de confiabilidade e probabilidade de ruptura e as hipóteses e etapas de cálculo consideradas em cada método. Discutem-se brevemente os diferentes métodos de equilíbrio limite utilizados para superfícies circulares de ruptura. Dois cenários foram estudados em relação aos procedimentos adotados: análises em tensões totais, com a resistência da argila mole obtida por ensaios de campo e laboratório; análises em tensões efetivas, com o ângulo de atrito da argila oriundo de ensaios triaxiais e obtidos por ensaios de campo e laboratório. Observou-se que para os dois cenários os valores de probabilidades de ruptura foram, respectivamente da ordem de: 1/3,5 e 1/312,5. / [en] This work aims the results of the application of probabilistic analyzes in the evaluation of slope stability, based on the case of the rupture of a tailings dam that colapse in January 2019. A statistical analysis of the geotechnical characteristics of the materials present in the work was carried out, emphasizing the inherent variability of the data. In the probabilistic analyzes, the FOSM method was adopted. The basic concepts of reliability and probability of rupture and the hypotheses and calculation steps considered in each method are presented. The different limit equilibrium methods used for circular rupture surfaces are briefly discussed. Two scenarios were studied in relation to the adopted procedures: total stress analysis, with the resistance of soft clay obtained by field and laboratory tests; effective stress analysis with the angle of friction of the clay from field and laboratory tests. It was observed that for the two scenarios the values of probability of rupture were, respectively, in the order of 1/3,5 e 1/312,5.

A norma Brasileira NBR 6122/1996 - Projeto e Execução de Fundações utiliza o conceito de coeficiente de segurança global e parcial na verificação da segurança de fundações. Esta dissertação ressalta que essa verificação, utilizada na prática, é necessária, para que se atenda às exigências da norma, porém, não é suficiente para garantir a segurança de uma fundação. Pois, qualquer medida de segurança deve estar associada a uma determinada probabilidade de ruína. Neste contexto, apresenta-se nessa dissertação uma metodologia de verificação da segurança na qual, a escolha da carga admissível de um estaqueamento é baseada na probabilidade de ruína de um elemento isolado de fundação e, a aplicação dessa metodologia em diversas fundações executadas em diferentes regiões do país. / The Brazilian code NBR 6122/1996 for Foundation Design and Execution is based on the concept of Limit States Design (LSD) and on the traditional Working Stress Design (WSD). This paper shows that this approach, as usually carry out in the foundation engineering practice, although being necessary, is not enough to assure a safe foundation, once any safety measurement should be associated to a given probability of failure. Therefore, in the proposed methodology, the safety verification of the piling allowable load is based on the probability of failure of an isolated foundation element.

The utilization of renewable energy resources such as wind and solar energy for electric power supply has received considerable attention in recent years due to adverse environmental impacts and fuel cost escalation associated with conventional generation. At the present time, wind and/or solar energy sources are utilized to generate electric power in many applications. Wind and solar energy will become important sources for power generation in the future because of their environmental, social and economic benefits, together with public support and government incentives. <p>The wind and sunlight are, however, unstable and variable energy sources, and behave far differently than conventional sources. Energy storage systems are, therefore, often required to smooth the fluctuating nature of the energy conversion system especially in small isolated applications. The research work presented in this thesis is focused on the development and application of reliability and economic benefits assessment associated with incorporating wind energy, solar energy and energy storage in power generating systems. A probabilistic approach using sequential Monte Carlo simulation was employed in this research and a number of analyses were conducted with regards to the adequacy and economic assessment of generation systems containing wind energy, solar energy and energy storage. The evaluation models and techniques incorporate risk index distributions and different operating strategies associated with diesel generation in small isolated systems. Deterministic and probabilistic techniques are combined in this thesis using a system well-being approach to provide useful adequacy indices for small isolated systems that include renewable energy and energy storage. The concepts presented and examples illustrated in this thesis will help power system planners and utility managers to assess the reliability and economic benefits of utilizing wind energy conversion systems, solar energy conversion systems and energy storage in electric power systems and provide useful input to the managerial decision process.