本研究係探討「上市公司季盈餘宣告」與「投信持股比例」之關係，希望瞭解季盈餘資訊對基金經理人投資決策之影響方向與程度。樣本涵蓋期間為民國八十四年第四季至八十六年第一季，以國內全體基金及其投資標的為研究對象，採用 t 檢定（單尾、雙尾）及簡單迴歸分析進行研究，實證結果如下： 一、關於「季盈餘成長率」與「持股比例變動百分比」之相關性： 就整體樣本而言，此二項變數間的關係並不顯著，但就產業別而言，「金融類股」與「其他類股」則出現顯著的結果，顯著水準分別是 1%與 5%。 二、關於「好消息」與「持股比例變動百分比」之相關性： 「季盈餘成長率」與「持股比例變動百分比」均達到 1% 的顯著水準，且後者的 t 值為證數，顯示好消息確實會引起持股比例顯著增加。 但就變動幅度的相關性加以分析，整體樣本的迴歸分析結果並不顯著，在產業類別方面，僅有「其他類股」出現顯著的狀況，達到 1%顯著水準。 三、關於「壞消息」與「持股比例變動百分比」之相關性： 「季盈餘成長率」與「持股比例變動百分比」均達到 1%的顯著水準，但後者的 t 值為負數，表示壞消息的出現反而造成持股比例顯著增加。 若就變動幅度的相關性加以分析，全體樣本迴歸分析結果達到 10%的顯著水準，至於在產業別方面，計有塑膠、營建、金融等三種產業出現顯著的結果，顯著水準分別是 10%、1%、1%。 四、關於「好消息的幅度」與「持股比例增加幅度」的分組檢定： 四組「好消息的幅度」均達到 1%的顯著水準，而四組「持股比例增加幅度」亦均達到 5%的顯著水準，顯示只要出現好消息，不論幅度大小，均會引起持股比例顯著增加。 但是迴歸分析方面，四組皆未達到顯著水準，顯示「持股比例增加的幅度」與「好消息的幅度」並不具有顯著的相關性。 五、關於「壞消息的幅度」與「持股比例減少幅度」的分組檢定： 四組「壞消息的幅度」均達到 1%的顯著水準，而四組「持股比例減少幅度」亦均達到 5%的顯著水準，顯示只要出現壞消息，不論幅度大小，均會引起持股比例顯著增加。原因可能亦為投信基金進場承接的結果。 至於在迴歸分析方面，四組皆未達到顯著水準，顯示「持股比例增加的幅度」與「壞消息的幅度」並不具有顯著的相關性，亦即只要出現壞消息投信基金就可能進場承接，但承接時買進的幅度與壞消息的幅度並未沒有顯著的相關性。 六、關於「本季盈餘成長率大於前一季」與「持股比例變動百分比」之相關性： 不論是全體樣本或細分的三組樣本（正正、負正、負負）均出現顯著的結果，除了「負正組」的顯著水準為 5%外，全體樣本與其餘二組（正正、負負）的顯著水準均為 1%。顯示投信業者相當重視上市公司盈餘改善的訊息，只要本季盈餘成長率大於前一季，不論前後二季盈餘成長率究竟是正號或負號，投信基金均會顯著增加持股比例。 七、關於「本季盈餘成長率小於前一季」與「持股比例變動百分比」之相關性： 不論是全體樣本或細分的三組樣本（正正、正負、負負）均出現顯著的結果，全體樣本與「負負組」的顯著水準為 1%，「正正組」與「正負組」的顯著水準為 5%。但四種情況的 t 值均為正數，與假說之預期正好相反，表示本季盈餘成長率小於前一季時，確實會引起投信基金進場承接。 / The purpose of this study is to investigate the impacts of quarterly report announcement on portfolio revision of mutual funds in the Taiwan stock market. Based on economics of information, mutual fund can be considered as a professional investor in the market such that management of mutual fund wold apply his (her) professional knowledge to forecast the realized number of earnings this period. Therefore, this study hypothesizes that mutual funds would response to the announcement of quarterly earnings earlier than other investors such that the porfolio of mutual fund would accord the announcement to make proper revision. The findings of this study can be summarized as follows. ● Except for financial servics and others industry groups, the relationship between the announcement of quarterly earnings and porfolio revisions of mutual funds is not significant. ● The positive growth of quarterly earnings will cause the significant porfolio revisions of mutual funds; but the relationship between their magnitude is not significant. ● The negative growth of quarterly earnings will cause the reverse significant porfolio revisions of mutual funds. This results implies mutual fund may be an instrument for maintaining price; or mutual fund may consider the bad news of this period being the worst condition of the firm. ● It is robust to conclude whatever itis a good news or not, mutual fund will increase its holdings. In particular, these results hold when the next quarter has the same sign of earnings growth.

現代化的企業型態，所有權與經營權分離，會計報表可以呈現經營績效讓投資人作為評估的依據，為二者之間的橋樑。 　　根據理性預期理論，一個理性的投資者，當公司宣告盈餘時，投資者會依盈餘宣告所帶來之新資訊調整投資行為，而這些行為即會反應在股價上，亦即盈餘新資訊會包括在股價形成之中。本研究以探討季盈餘宣告與股價變動的關係來證明季盈餘是否具有資訊內涵。 　　本研究擬依序回答下列的研究問題：1.是否季盈餘具有顯著的資訊內涵2.一至三季的資訊內涵與第四季是否有顯著差異3.是否季盈餘的資訊內涵具規模效應。 　　本研究係採t檢定來支持異常報酬異於零的假說，對於假說二及假說三則採兩樣本間的t-test來假定兩組間的平均異常報酬是否有顯著的不同。 　　實證結果如下：一、依未預期盈餘分組，UE為正的有正的異常報酬UE為負的有負的異常報酬，但由於並未達統計上之顯著水準，故未能獲得「季盈餘具有資訊內涵」之結果。二、由實證結果顯示，第四季盈餘宣告較能引起較高之異常報酬，但未達統計上之顯著水準，第四季與1-3季股價之反應，在兩組t-test之中並未達顯著，故無法獲得季盈餘具有季節效應之假說。三、以規模大小所做的t-test亦未達統計上之顯著水準，故結論亦不支持「季盈餘具有規模效應」之假說。

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This thesis examines the response of a representative agent investor to sequences (streaks) of quarterly earnings surprises over a period of twelve quarters using the United States S&P500 constituent companies sample frame in the years 1991 to 2006. This examination follows the predictive performance of the representative agent model of Rabin (2002b) [Inference by believers in the law of small numbers. The Quarterly Journal of Economics. 117(3).p.775 816] and Barberis, Shleifer, and Vishny (1998) [A model of investor sentiment. Journal of Financial Economics. 49. p.307 343] for an investor who might be under the influence of the law of small numbers, or another closely related cognitive bias known as the gambler s fallacy. Chapters 4 and 5 present two related empirical studies on this broad theme. In chapter 4, for successive sequences of annualised quarterly earnings changes over a twelve-quarter horizon of quarterly earnings increases or falls, I ask whether the models can capture the likelihood of reversion. Secondly, I ask, what is the representative investor s response to observed sequences of quarterly earnings changes for my S&P500 constituent sample companies? I find a far greater frequency of extreme persistent quarterly earnings rises (of nine quarters and more) than falls and hence a more muted reaction to their occurrence from the market. Extreme cases of persistent quarterly earnings falls are far less common than extreme rises and are more salient in their impact on stock prices. I find evidence suggesting that information discreteness; that is the frequency with which small information about stock value filters into the market is one of the factors that foment earnings momentum in stocks. However, information discreteness does not subsume the impact of sequences of annualised quarterly earnings changes, or earnings streakiness as a strong candidate that drives earnings momentum in stock returns in my S&P500 constituent stock sample. Therefore, earnings streakiness and informational discreteness appear to have separate and additive effects in driving momentum in stock price. In chapter 5, the case for the informativeness of the streaks of earnings surprises is further strengthened. This is done by examining the explanatory power of streaks of earnings surprises in a shorter horizon of three days around the period when the effect of the nature of earnings news is most intense in the stock market. Even in shorter windows, investors in S&P500 companies seem to be influenced by the lengthening of negative and positive streaks of earnings surprises over the twelve quarters of quarterly earnings announcement I study here. This further supports my thesis that investors underreact to sequences of changes in their expectations about stock returns. This impact is further strengthened by high information uncertainties in streaks of positive earnings surprise. However, earnings streakiness is one discrete and separable element in the resolution of uncertainty around equity value for S&P 500 constituent companies. Most of the proxies for earnings surprise show this behaviour especially when market capitalisation, age and cash flow act as proxies of information uncertainty. The influence of the gambler s fallacy on the representative investor in the presence of information uncertainty becomes more pronounced when I examine increasing lengths of streaks of earnings surprises. The presence of post earnings announcement drift in my large capitalised S&P500 constituents sample firms confirms earnings momentum to be a pervasive phenomenon which cuts across different tiers of the stock markets including highly liquid stocks, followed by many analysts, which most large funds would hold.