This thesis studies a dynamic Select Sector SPDRs ETFs portfolio optimization problem. The objective of the optimization model is to maximize the risk-adjusted expected return of a portfolio similar to a logarithmic utility maximization. The conditional value-at-risk measure is chosen to be an additional risk exposure constraint. The vector auto-regression (1) regime-switching economic factor model estimated with the expectation-maximization algorithm is employed to identify different market regimes over time. The expected ETFs returns and their variance-covariance matrix used in the objective function of the optimization model are generated by a regime-switching asset pricing model. Both regime-switching models have proven to be superior to respective single-regime models due to their greater predictive ability. The optimized portfolio performance evaluated by Sharpe ratio, Treynor ratio and Jensen’s alpha are all statistically significant compared to those of the equally weighted ETFs portfolio and S&P 500 stock index. This illustrates that incorporating the regime-switching technique, the portfolio optimization model is effective and successful under both bull and bear market conditions.

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L’organisation par projet, entendue comme réorganisation radicale du travail autour d’un ou de plusieurs projets simultanés, est aujourd’hui largement répandue dans les grandes entreprises et dans les administrations publiques. Nombre de recherches en sciences de gestion expliquent cette vaste diffusion par la capacité de ce système à réduire considérablement les délais productifs. Toutefois, comme tout système productif, sa performance repose également sur l’implication des salariés intervenants dans les projets. Là encore, à en croire la rhétorique managériale, l’organisation par projet se révèlerait vertueuse : en accordant une plus grande autonomie aux salariés dans l’acte productif et en développant leurs qualifications par le biais des mobilités et de la pluridisciplinarité des équipes de travail, elle parviendrait à susciter pleinement leur engagement.Toutefois, des recherches en sciences de gestion et en sociologie nuancent quelque peu ce point de vue : l’organisation par projet se montrerait également déstabilisante pour les salariés. Ce constat, a priori contradictoire, invite à examiner comment la combinaison entre organisation du travail, management et systèmes informatiques, dans l’organisation par projet, rénove le régime de mobilisation des salariés. Pour répondre à ce questionnement, cette recherche s’appuie sur des observations, une analyse documentaire et 108 entretiens menés auprès de techniciens, ingénieurs et cadres de la conception de deux grandes entreprises françaises des secteurs automobile et aéronautique, où l’organisation par projet est fortement répandue. Structurée en trois parties, la démonstration se déroule de la manière suivante. La première partie démontre que les contraintes qui émanent de l’organisation du procès de travail, du management et des systèmes informatiques parviennent à mobiliser les salariés dans l’acte productif. La deuxième partie dévoile, ensuite, que l’engagement productif des salariés ne signifie pas qu’ils adhérent et légitiment pleinement cette forme d’organisation du travail. En dépit des sources de satisfaction qu’elle contient, l’organisation par projet s’avère, en effet, déstabilisante et ne manque pas de susciter des critiques chez les salariés. Enfin, la troisième partie de cette thèse explique les raisons de la portée subversive toute relative de ces discours et pratiques contestataires. La première de ces raisons est que le mécontentement se manifeste à un niveau individuel et ne trouve pas de relais auprès des instances capables de structurer une action collective et organisée. La seconde raison réside dans le fait que l’organisation par projet parvient à désamorcer la critique en l’individualisant et en se montrant sourde à l’égard de ses diverses manifestations. In fine, à travers son pouvoir coercitif et sa capacité à étouffer les formes de contestation formulées à son égard, l’organisation par projet parvient à se dispenser de l’adhésion pleine et entière des salariés ; ce qui, comme nous le verrons tout au long de cette thèse, n’est pas sans conséquence sur leur rapport au travail et leur santé. / The project-based organization, considered as a radical reorganization of work around one or more simultaneous projects, is nowadays widespread in large companies and public administrations. Many management science studies explain this wide dissemination by the capacity of this system to considerably reduce the time of production. However, like any production system, its performance also relies on the involvement of the employees working on the projects. Moreover, according to the managerial way of thinking, the project-based organization would be virtuous: by giving more autonomy to the employees in the act of production and by developing their skills through mobility and interdisciplinarity of work teams, it would be able to arouse their full commitment. However, some sociological and management science studies somewhat qualify this opinion: the project-based organization would be unsettling for workers, as well. This, which could seems to be contradictory first, makes necessary to study how the combination of work organization, management and computer systems, in the project-based organization, reforms the workers’ commitment system. To answer this question, this study is based on observations, a literature review and 108 interviews with technicians, engineers and executives from industrial design. They work in two large French companies of automotive and aircraft manufacturing industries, where the project-based organization is widespread. Structured in three parts, the demonstration takes place as follows. The first part shows that the constraints created by the organization of the work process, the management and the computer systems enable to mobilize employees in the act of production. Then, the second part reveals that the productive commitment of the employees does not mean that they legitimate and adhere to this form of work organization. In spite of the sources of satisfaction it has, the project-based organization is in fact unsettling and sparks off criticisms among workers. Finally, the third part of this thesis explains the reasons of the slight subversive side of these dissenting opinions and practices. The first of these reasons is that the discontent comes to an individual level; there are no go-betweens able to structure a collective and organized action. The second reason is that the project-based organization manages to stop criticisms by focusing to its individual part and by being deaf to its various manifestations. Finally, through its coercive power and its capacity to hush up the forms of protests made against it, the project-based organization manages to dispense with the full commitment of workers, which, as we will see throughout this thesis, has many consequences on their conception of work and health.

Esta dissertação tem como objetivo básico aplicar os modelos de mudança de regime para as séries financeiras tanto brasileiras quanto americanas. O período em análise compreende um conjunto amplo de choques, nos quais os modelos de mudança de regime tem um comportamento melhor vis-à-vis os modelos tradicionais. Para verificar a maior eficácia destes modelos foram usados vários critérios tanto estatísticos quanto de mercado.

Egypt is a geographically large, populous and internationally-recognised state with an organised bureaucracy and armed forces. In contrast, Hamas is an armed social movement, which, after its electoral victory in January 2006 and, more importantly, after acquiring full control over the Gaza Strip in June 2007, emerged as a quasi-state with internal sovereignty. Egypt enjoys a peace treaty with Israel and a strategic alliance with the US, whereas Hamas is in conflict with Israel, and is designated by the US as a terrorist group. This thesis traces the interactions between Hamas and Egypt during the 2006-2014 period, with a focus on the Mubarak era. The dissertation’s main aim is not only to present how and when asymmetry and strategic differences between Hamas and Egypt were reflected in their relations, but also to explain why and how on certain occasions their interactions took on the form of tactical cooperation. Hence, I show that small or quasi-states in the contemporary Middle East are in position to extract political gains from larger neighbouring state actors even in the presence of strategic differences. This thesis contextualises the situations it discusses through Omni Balancing Theory (OBT), which understands an actor’s foreign policy as the outcome of the efforts of its leader to survive politically by balancing between external and internal threats. In this regard, Egypt’s approach towards Hamas and vice versa at a given time is seen as the result of a cost-benefit calculation that has assessed the value of simultaneous foreign and domestic threats. Accordingly, the dissertation looks at Hamas-Egypt relations through three lenses: firstly, through the impact of international and regional pressures; secondly, through cross-border interactions; and thirdly, through the effect of domestic pressures. Finally, the thesis separately discusses the course of Hamas-Egypt relations between February 2011 and August 2014. This is due to the density of the political developments during this period. To be precise, the three weak post-Mubarak Egyptian governments faced quite diverse threats the dealing of which generated considerable fluctuations in Cairo’s approach towards Hamas.

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The main purpose of the study is to investigate the exchange rate trend of China Renminbi from 1949 to nowadays, and predict the possibilities of the developed trend of China Renminbi in the future to investigate the problems of Chins Renminbi at present. It can divide China Renminbi into three periods, there are Centrally Planned Economy Period (1949~1979), Export to Accumulate Foreign Reserve (1980~1993), and Economy Adjustment Period (1994 to nowadays). The rate standard of Renminbi is usually under the China Economy policy consideration. First of all, the China Renminbi of Centrally Planned Economy Period is based on the policy consideration of the heavy industrialization, and it tends to overvalue the rate exchange to decrease the import prime cost. This condition is similar to East Europe countries before Soviet Union dismissed. Second, the Export to Accumulate Foreign Reserve tends to decrease the export cost to solicit the business. And it tents to underestimate the rate exchange similar to Taiwan of 1970s and Japan after World War II, before Plaza Accord. Moreover, the Renminbi of Economy Adjustment Period overvalued the rate exchange, but it keeps stable. The overvalued and stable standard of rate exchange strengthens the export competition of China. At the same time, it accumulate great deal of Foreign reserve which similar to the development countries of Southeast Asian to adopt Fixed Exchange Rate Regime Pegged to US Dollar. China accumulate great deal of foreign exchange because of the overvalued rate exchange, and it made the rate standard of Renminbi concerned by international. China can not self-contained after entering WTO, they have to face the opening market and the restriction of international regulations. China restricts itself by the textile industry, and they purchase foreign bond (American bond) to decrease the pressure of the appreciation of Renminbi. Even if the rate system of Renminbi has change from control the dollar to basket-pegged exchange rate regime, and it does not break away the connection between Hong Kong currencies. The Hong Kong currencies have risk of Hot Money. China still can not open their capital during the short term time to make the Renminbi floating and become convertible currency because of their economy circumstance; however, the expected long term rate of Renminbi revaluation is a necessary trend of the future.

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This thesis is a study of decentralisation in the Sudan both as a mechanism for the management of ethnic diversity and for development administration. The study focuses on a particular period (1969-1983) during the Nimeiri regime when extensive administrative reforms were carried out which gave the Sudan one of the most decentralised governmental systems in Africa. Although decentralisation was applied in the Sudan to achieve these twin objectives, its effectiveness fluctuated depending on the political situation at central government level. A case study was conducted to investigate the impact of decentralisation policy in one district council, Wau. The research was particularly focused on education, one of the services for which the local authorities were responsible. The field research involved the collection of data through a structured questionnaire to investigate such variables as: educational administration, school management, school environment and community participation. An analysis of the data reveals that all was not well with decentralisation in the Sudan. In light of these findings, the last part of the thesis reassesses the conditions for effective decentralisation policies generally and the Sudan in particular. Finally, areas for further research are suggested based on the findings of the study. This thesis confirms the following hypotheses: - The success of state-ethnoregional cohesion is largely dependent on the state's ability to initiate integrative policies. - A decentralised system of government requires effective and active central participation to control and guide its implementation. - Entrusting incommensurate powers to local authorities in areas at a rudimentary stage of development adversely affects their role as participants in development.