AN ABSTRACT OF THE DISSERTATION OF WEI GAO, for the Doctor of Philosophy degree in ECONOMICS, presented on JUNE 28th, 2011, at Southern Illinois University Carbondale. TITLE: ASSASSINATION AND ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE MAJOR PROFESSORS: SCOTT GILBERT AND KEVIN SYLWESTER The goal of this dissertation is to investigate how assassination attempts affect economic performances. The challenge is that assassination attempts may not be exogeneous. Thus, I use the outcome of an assassination attempts, success or failure, which is plausibly exogeneous, as the key independent dummy variable to conduct the econometric analysis. This dissertation is composed of three chapters. The first chapter studies whether national leadership shocks affect a country's economic growth. Jones and Olken (2005) find that national leaders' accidental death has impacts on the country's economic growth. Jones and Olken (2009) also find that different outcomes of assassination attempts, success versus failure, matter for the institutions of the country. This chapter follows the methodology in Jones and Olken (2009) to study the impact of different assassination outcomes on economic growth. This chapter finds that basically assassination attempts have no impact on economic growth. But assassination attempts are statistically significant considering two year window. The second chapter studies whether national leadership shocks affect a country's investment. This chapter follows the same methodology in the first chapter to study the impact of different assassination outcomes on investment. The findings in this chapter show that plausibly exogeneous outcome of assassination attempts does not determine the growth of investment or investment level in the country. The result is robust to controlling for different political regimes. The result is also robust to use propensity score approach to separate the effects of successful assassination attempts and unsuccessful ones. The third chapter studies whether national leadership has influence on economic policies. Jones and Olken (2005) find that leaders affect monetary policy and find no persuasive evidence that leaders affect fiscal, trade or security policy. This chapter employs the same methodology in the first two chapters to reexamine the issue. The findings in this chapter find no persuasive evidence that leaders affect fiscal policy or monetary policy. However, there is some evidence that national leaders affect trade policy.

This thesis set out to investigate the relationship between political regime type, and FDI inflow. The academic field has seen a fair amount of research in recent years, but this is usually limited to the likes of democracies and autocracies. I argue that many countries are neither of these two, but find themselves in a political unstable gray zone in between, called hybrid regimes. This thesis draws on a comprehensive dataset ranging from 1980-2010, and by way of time-series cross-section analysis; it sets out to explore the attractiveness of hybrid regimes in relation to FDI inflow. The findings indicate that unstable political regimes do attract MNCs, but that they usually are dependent on natural resources. Hybrid regimes receive more FDI inflow than autocracies, but less than democracies. The thesis also find that the region Africa is special in that hybrid regimes are the biggest recipient of FDI inflow, with natural resources being the main factor. The findings support the former literature saying that democratic conditions attracts MNCs, but also question the alleged democratic transition taking place in a growing oil-dependent world.

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<p>C-essay in political science by Anna Höjenberg and Maria Stenberg, spring of 2006</p><p>“The Grey Zone – An essay on the characteristics of a hybrid regime and a case study of Russia”. Supervisors: Joakim Ekman and Jonas Linde</p><p>This essay deals with the concept of hybrid regimes. The purpose is to describe the structure and the content of such a regime-type and try to create a model which can help us to analyse different countries. The essay is divided into two sections. The first part is a theory generated study which describes the characteristics of the concept hybrid regime. With the support of the different characteristics we have created a typology divided into four dimensions. The main material consists of articles from the scientific journal Journal of Democracy and academic books. The second part of the essay is a qualitative comparative case study of Russia, with the purpose to see whether Russia can be characterised as a hybrid regime or not.</p><p>In our typology a hybrid regime is something between a democratic regime and an authoritarian regime. In contrast to an authoritarian regime it is possible for the opposition in a hybrid regime to come into power, but in comparison to a democracy the struggle is much harder and it requires a more extensive mobilisation. We consider Russia to fall into the category of hybrid regimes, but the recent developments under President Putin demonstrate that the country also inhabits several features that we considered authoritarian.</p>

The aim of this essay is to investigate what sort of political regimes that have been taking form in Russia and Turkey during the 21st century. Hence, it studies the development that has been taking place in both countries during the last ten years. This essay is doing so by using a comparative approach. The theoretical frame of the essay is inspired by Silander’s (2012) dimensions for a democratic regime. The dimensions are leadership, political parties and civil society. Furthermore, it dives into deeper studies about the political system of each country.         The study demonstrates that neither Russia nor Turkey are able to meet the standards of a democracy as of today. Furthermore, it shows that Russia falls within the frame of an authoritarian regime. Turkey is listed as ”partly free” according to this study, hence it is a hybrid regime with limitations.

A guerra civil é a forma de violência coletiva mais importante de nossa época. Embora pesquisas recentes tenham apontado alguns elementos como determinantes das guerras civis, a influência dos fatores políticos nos conflitos internos ainda é controversa. O presente estudo analisa, por meio de regressão estatística, a relação entre a competitividade do poder executivo e a incidência de guerras civis de 1976 a 2000. Os achados indicam que tanto eleições com candidatos únicos como votações multipartidárias reduzem a incidência de guerras civis. Ademais, os resultados dão apoio às hipóteses levantadas pela literatura recente de que terreno montanhoso, grande população, sistema políticos centralizados e a existência de conflitos anteriores aumentam significativamente o risco de incidência de guerras civis / Civil War is the most important form of collective violence of our time. Although recent research has yielded some determining elements to civil war, the influence of political factors on internal conflicts remains disputed. This study analyzes, by means of statistics regression, the correlation between the competitiveness in the Executive Branch and the incidence of civil war from 1976 to 2000. The findings indicate that both single-candidate and multi-party elections reduce the incidence of civil war. Furthermore, the results lend support to the hypotheses put forward by recent literature that mountainous terrain, large population, centralized political system, and the existence of former conflicts significantly heighten the risk of incidence of civil war

La sociographie des élites politiques au Mali reste un domaine très inexploré. Cette thèse se propose d’étudier lestrajectoires des élites parlementaires maliennes de 1992-2002. Elle s’est donnée pour ambition d’étudier le socialbackground des députés à partir de la sociologie politique des élites. Nous soutenons la thèse que le champpolitique malien est le fruit d’une hybridation politique issue de l’histoire précoloniale, coloniale et postcoloniale. Ainsi, la légitimité des députés est à la fois « traditionnelle » et « moderne », elle reposeprincipalement sur les ressources mobilisables par les parlementaires, à savoir l’origine sociale (familiale,territoriale) et la position dans la société malienne (statut social, profession, niveau d’études). Afin decompléter ce tableau politique de l’élite parlementaire malienne la thèse s’attache à mettre en lumière les« capacités de professionnalisation » des députés à transformer leurs propriétés sociales en ressources politiques.Pour cela l’analyse institutionnelle reste insuffisante pour rendre compte du recrutement de cette élite. Lecroisement de la sociologie des partis, des rôles, des réseaux met en exergue la politisation et laprofessionnalisation des députés. En analysant la réalité du multipartisme au Mali dans un contexte socioculturelet politique différent, cette recherche confirme les acquis de la sociologie politique d’une démocratisationsingulière. La compétition politique, si elle repose essentiellement sur les partis politiques, ne peut être suffisantepour expliquer ces processus de professionnalisation. Il faut aussi tenir compte d’autres acteurs « a-partisans »qui par des voies parallèles intériorisent ces codes du champ politique. / The Malian political elite's “sociography” remains unexplored. This thesis based on the elite's sociology, aims at studying the Malian parliamentary elites' careers from 1992 to 2012.Its goal is to study the MPS' social background.In this study we assert that the Malian political field is the result of a political hybridisation stemming from the pre-colonial, colonial and post-colonial History. This hybridisation also highlights the weight of lineage, the promotion of vote-catching opportunism of self-made men who constantly reshuffle the voters' registration card in the multiparty political regime of the post-dictatorial era. Thus, the MPS' legitimacy is akin to a dual legitimacy, both “traditional” and “modern”. This legitimacy lies mainly on the resources available for the members of parliament, namely the social background (family and territorial) and the position in Malian society (social status, occupation, level of education).In order to complete this political picture of the Malian parliamentary elite, we intend through this paper to stress the “professionalization abilities” of members of parliament to turn their social peculiarities (social background, social wealth) into political resources (electoral clientele).In order to achieve that, institutional analysis remains insufficient to account for the recruiting of that parliamentary elite. The blending of party sociology, occupations, roles (local or national) and networks underlines the political bias and professionalization of MPS. By analyzing the reality of multiparty in Mali in a different political and socio- cultural background, this research strengthens the concepts of political sociology linked to a peculiar democratic process. Political competition , which basically rests upon political parties, cannot suffice to account for this professionalization process. One must also consider other unbiased players who, through parallel channels, manage to adopt and interiorize the political field's codes.

Até o presente, todas as avaliações de regime político tiveram que escolher um lado ao depararem- se com o trade-off entre tipo e grau. Esforços dicotômicos e tricotômicos produziram avaliações tipológicas significativas, mas incapazes de estabelecer gradações entre países muito diferentes. Trabalhos policotômicos ou contínuos forneceram avaliações nuançadas, todavia as tipologias que derivam deles são casuísticas e baseadas em distinções artificiais. Ademais, avaliações de países em desenvolvimento frequentemente apresentam sérios problemas de validade e adequação conceitual. Este estudo usa insights da lógica de fuzzy sets de modo a superar o mencionado trade-off, mediante o desenvolvimento de uma avaliação original de regimes que é contínua e de natureza tanto qualitativa como quantitativa, apresentando maior poder discriminatório do que todas as demais disponíveis na literatura. O trabalho também mostra que aspectos relacionados ao primado da lei são cruciais para o exame de regimes políticos e não podem ser desconsiderados, sobretudo quando países em desenvolvimento são analisados. Colômbia e Venezuela foram os casos em que o arcabouço elaborado foi aplicado, o que resultou em avaliações que apresentam menos problemas de validade e adequação conceitual do que as produzidas por Cheibub, Gandhi e Vreeland, Freedom House e Polity IV. / So far, all measures of political regimes had to choose sides when faced with the trade-off between degree and type. Polychotomous or continuous works provide nuanced evaluations, but the classifications they use are casuistic and based on ad hoc distinctions. Dichotomous and trichotomous attempts, although producing meaningful classifications, are incapable of distinguishing between very different countries. Additionally, evaluations concerning developing countries often present serious validity and conceptual adequacy problems. This study uses insights from fuzzy sets logic in order to overcome the mentioned trade-off by developing an original measure of regimes that is continuous and both qualitative and quantitative in nature, exhibiting more discriminating power than all the others available in the literature. This work also shows that aspects related to the rule of law are crucial to assessments of political regimes and should not be overlooked, especially when developing countries are examined. Colombia and Venezuela were the cases to which the measure elaborated was applied, what resulted in evaluations that present less validity and conceptual adequacy problems than the ones produced by Cheibub, Gandhi and Vreeland, Freedom House and Polity IV.

A guerra civil é a forma de violência coletiva mais importante de nossa época. Embora pesquisas recentes tenham apontado alguns elementos como determinantes das guerras civis, a influência dos fatores políticos nos conflitos internos ainda é controversa. O presente estudo analisa, por meio de regressão estatística, a relação entre a competitividade do poder executivo e a incidência de guerras civis de 1976 a 2000. Os achados indicam que tanto eleições com candidatos únicos como votações multipartidárias reduzem a incidência de guerras civis. Ademais, os resultados dão apoio às hipóteses levantadas pela literatura recente de que terreno montanhoso, grande população, sistema políticos centralizados e a existência de conflitos anteriores aumentam significativamente o risco de incidência de guerras civis / Civil War is the most important form of collective violence of our time. Although recent research has yielded some determining elements to civil war, the influence of political factors on internal conflicts remains disputed. This study analyzes, by means of statistics regression, the correlation between the competitiveness in the Executive Branch and the incidence of civil war from 1976 to 2000. The findings indicate that both single-candidate and multi-party elections reduce the incidence of civil war. Furthermore, the results lend support to the hypotheses put forward by recent literature that mountainous terrain, large population, centralized political system, and the existence of former conflicts significantly heighten the risk of incidence of civil war

Até o presente, todas as avaliações de regime político tiveram que escolher um lado ao depararem- se com o trade-off entre tipo e grau. Esforços dicotômicos e tricotômicos produziram avaliações tipológicas significativas, mas incapazes de estabelecer gradações entre países muito diferentes. Trabalhos policotômicos ou contínuos forneceram avaliações nuançadas, todavia as tipologias que derivam deles são casuísticas e baseadas em distinções artificiais. Ademais, avaliações de países em desenvolvimento frequentemente apresentam sérios problemas de validade e adequação conceitual. Este estudo usa insights da lógica de fuzzy sets de modo a superar o mencionado trade-off, mediante o desenvolvimento de uma avaliação original de regimes que é contínua e de natureza tanto qualitativa como quantitativa, apresentando maior poder discriminatório do que todas as demais disponíveis na literatura. O trabalho também mostra que aspectos relacionados ao primado da lei são cruciais para o exame de regimes políticos e não podem ser desconsiderados, sobretudo quando países em desenvolvimento são analisados. Colômbia e Venezuela foram os casos em que o arcabouço elaborado foi aplicado, o que resultou em avaliações que apresentam menos problemas de validade e adequação conceitual do que as produzidas por Cheibub, Gandhi e Vreeland, Freedom House e Polity IV. / So far, all measures of political regimes had to choose sides when faced with the trade-off between degree and type. Polychotomous or continuous works provide nuanced evaluations, but the classifications they use are casuistic and based on ad hoc distinctions. Dichotomous and trichotomous attempts, although producing meaningful classifications, are incapable of distinguishing between very different countries. Additionally, evaluations concerning developing countries often present serious validity and conceptual adequacy problems. This study uses insights from fuzzy sets logic in order to overcome the mentioned trade-off by developing an original measure of regimes that is continuous and both qualitative and quantitative in nature, exhibiting more discriminating power than all the others available in the literature. This work also shows that aspects related to the rule of law are crucial to assessments of political regimes and should not be overlooked, especially when developing countries are examined. Colombia and Venezuela were the cases to which the measure elaborated was applied, what resulted in evaluations that present less validity and conceptual adequacy problems than the ones produced by Cheibub, Gandhi and Vreeland, Freedom House and Polity IV.