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The Quite Revolution: An analysis of the change toward below-replacement-level fertility in Addis AbabaKinfu Ashagrea, Yohannes, yohannes@coombs.anu.edu.au January 2001 (has links)
Rural-urban differentials in fertility behaviour are neither new nor surprising, but
a difference of over four children per woman as observed between rural Ethiopia
and the country's national capital, Addis Ababa, in 1990 is rare, possibly unique.
Reported fertility in Addis Ababa in 1990 was about 2.6 children per woman. By
the mid-1990s, it declined further to 1.8 children per woman. This study
investigates the dimensions, components and causes of this remarkable
reproductive change.
¶
The study specifically asks and seeks to answer the following questions. Is the
decline real, or is it merely an illusion created by faulty reporting? If it is real, how
has it come about? Did it result from a change in the onset of reproduction or a
decline in the proportion of women reaching high parities or both? And in what
context has such a fundamental, even revolutionary, change taken place in a
country and a continent that are mostly yet to join the global transition to a small
family-size norm.
¶
Data for the study were drawn from two national population censuses,
undertaken in 1984 and 1994, two fertility surveys, conducted in 1990 and 1995,
and a number of supplementary sources, including a qualitative study conducted
by the investigator. Results from the study confirm that the trend of declining
fertility and the recent fall to below-replacement-level are indeed real. As the
analysis shows the decline was largely driven by changes in the marriage pattern,
and supplemented by the increased propensity of fertility control observed across
all birth orders and age groups. All socio-economic groups in the city have had a
decline in cohort fertility and this was brought about both by shifts in population
composition (a composition effect) and increased intensity of fertility control
within each group (a rate effect). The institutional and cultural factors that are
believed to have prompted these changes are discussed in the thesis in some
detail.
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China's far below replacement level fertility: a reality or illusion arising from underreporting of births?Zhang, Guangyu, Zhang.Guangyu@anu.edu.au January 2004 (has links)
How fast and how far Chinas fertility declined in the 1990s has long been a matter
of considerable debate, despite very low fertility consistently being reported in a
number of statistical investigations over time. Most demographers interpreted this as
a result of serious underreporting of births in population statistics, due to the family
planning program, especially the program strengthening after 1991. Consequently,
they suggested that fertility fell only moderately below-replacement level, around 1.8
children per woman from the early 1990s. But some demographers argued that
surveys and census may have reflected a real decline of fertility even allowing for
some underreporting of births, given the consistency between data sources and over
time. They believed that fertility declined substantially in the 1990s, very likely in
the range between 1.5 and 1.6 by the year 2000.¶
The controversy over fertility is primarily related to the problem of underreporting of
births, in particular the different estimations of the extent of underreporting.
However, a correct interpretation of fertility data goes far beyond the pure numbers,
which calls for a thorough understanding of different data sources, the programmatic
and societal changes that occurred in the 1990s, and their effects on both fertility
changes and data collection efforts. This thesis aims to address the question whether
the reported far-below-replacement level fertility was a reality of substantial fertility
decline or just an illusion arising from underreporting of births. Given the nature of
the controversy, it devotes most efforts in assessing data quality, through examining
the patterns, causes and extent of underreporting of births in each data source;
reconstructing the decline of fertility in the 1990s; and searching corroborating
evidence for the decline.¶
After reviewing programmatic changes in the 1990s, this thesis suggests that the
program efforts were greatly strengthened, which would help to bring fertility down,
but the birth control policy and program target were not tightened as generally
believed. The program does affect individual reporting of births, but the
completeness of births in each data source is greatly dependent on who collects
fertility data and how the data are collected. The thesis then carefully examines the
data collection operations and underreporting of births in five sets of fertility data:
the hukou statistics, the family planning statistics, population census, annual survey
and retrospective survey. The analysis does not find convincing evidence that
fertility data deteriorated more seriously in the 1990s than the preceding decade.
Rather, it finds that surveys and censuses have a far more complete reporting of
births than the registration-based statistics, because they directly obtain information
from respondents, largely avoiding intermediate interference from local program
workers. In addition, the detailed examination suggests that less than 10 percent
births may have been unreported in surveys and censuses. The annual surveys, which
included many higher-order our-of-plan births being misreported as first-order births,
have more complete reporting of births than censuses, which were affected by the
increasing population mobility and field enumeration difficulties, and retrospective
surveys, which suffered from underreporting of higher-order births.¶
Using the unadjusted data of annual surveys from 1991 to 1999, 1995 sample census
and 2000 census, this research shows that fertility first dropped from 2.3 to 1.7 in the
first half of the 1990s, and further declined to a lower level around 1.5-1.6 in the
second half of the decade. The comparison with other independent sources
corroborates the reliability of this estimation. Putting Chinas fertility decline in
international perspective, comparison with the experiences of Thailand and Korea
also supports such a rapid decline. Subsequently, the thesis reveals an increasingly
narrow gap between state demands and popular fertility preferences, and great
contributions from delayed marriage and nearly universal contraception. It is
concluded that the fertility declined substantially over the course of the 1990s and
dropped to a very low level by the end of last century. It is very likely that the
combination of a government-enforced birth control program and rapid societal
changes quickly moved China into the group of very low-fertility countries earlier
than that might have been anticipated, as almost all the others are developed
countries.
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A Classic Model in a Low Fertility Context: The Proximate Determinants of Fertility in South Korea and the United StatesGuarneri, Christine E. 2010 May 1900 (has links)
John Bongaarts' proximate determinants model of fertility has accounted for over 90 percent of variation in the total fertility rate (TFR) of primarily developing nations and historical populations. Recently, dramatically low fertility rates across the globe have raised questions regarding whether this model could be applied to exclusively below-replacement nations. This study follows Knodel, Chamratrithirong, and Debavalya's 1987 analysis of fertility decline in Thailand by conducting in-depth case studies of the proximate determinants in two low fertility countries over time: South Korea, where fertility is well below the level of replacement, and the United States, where fertility has hovered around replacement level for many years. Then, the fertility-inhibiting effect of the proximate determinants is assessed by comparing the quantitative index representing each determinant measured in the 1960s/1970s with its measurement in the 2000s. For both years, I consider the fertility level that would prevail in the determinant's presence as well as the level that would exist in its absence. Finally, I use each of the indices to calculate the TFR and assess how the strength of the model varies over time in the two countries.
Ultimately, results indicate that the proximate determinants model does not offer a clean picture of the fertility level in either South Korea or the United States; when trends uncovered by the case studies are compared to the results of the quantitative analysis, a number of inconsistencies are revealed. This suggests that certain components in the model may need to be respecified for more effective application in low-fertility contexts. However, that is not to say that it offers no insight into fertility at all or that it is no longer a useful tool. On the contrary, it is shown that the proximate determinants model holds a lot of potential for analysis in low-fertility nations. The implications of these results, as well as the need for improvements in international data collection efforts, are also discussed.
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