Thesis (Ph D.)--University of Wisconsin--Madison, 1967. / Typescript. Vita. Includes bibliographical references (leaves 305-308).

Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of Wisconsin--Madison, 1970. / Typescript. Vita. eContent provider-neutral record in process. Description based on print version record. Includes bibliographical references.

In this dissertation project, I make three separate contributions on how we can improve aggregate election forecasting models with respect to modeling choices, interpretability, and performance. Two of the three papers are applications to particular cases, the U.S. and France specifically, while the third points to a cross-national pattern in polling errors. The first paper addresses how we can make more reasonable prior choices for key parameters – such as the variability of non-sampling error – by using past pre-election polls. I showcase this approach on U.S. presidential elections. The second paper shows how to create and aggregate predictions in a multi-party contest while keeping the individual forecasts intact. This is useful to see convergences or divergences in the forecasts which might affect our confidence in the aggregate prediction. I develop a new aggregate forecasting model for French presidential elections to demonstrate this idea. The last paper shows and investigates a pattern in polling errors. We see that across multiple countries and electoral systems, polling errors favor the lesser party in two-party contests, i.e. polling errors favor Democratic candidates in Republican states and vice versa. We demonstrate a simple adjustment procedure based on this pattern to reduce the mean absolute polling error. We achieve a 16% reduction in the 2016 U.S. presidential election.

This thesis tests the hypothesis that increasing urbanization in the South is positively correlated with rising Republican voting in presidential and gubernatorial races. A measure of urbanization was derived by subjecting socio-economic data from three censuses for all southern counties to factor analysis. This measure was regressed against Republican percentages of presidential vote in 1952, 1960 and 1968, and against GOP percentages in governor's races closest to the census years. The coefficients of correlation were uniformly low, reaching as high as .50 only once in each case. It was concluded that urbanization accounts for little in explaining variation in Republican voting and that contradictory findings are the result of reliance on less powerful analytic techniques, misunderstanding of more powerful ones or inadequate operationalization of key concepts.

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This qualitative interview study was designed to explore with Trans-Spectrum college students, including graduates, current students, and dropouts, how they have conceptualized and made meaning of their experiences in traditionally Red States since the 2016 U.S. Presidential Election. This study resulted in recommendations that would enable administrators in both community colleges and four-year institutions to implement specific practices to improve learning environments and access to resources for Trans-Spectrum college students. The researcher based this study on three principal assumptions: (1) there is a population of Trans-Spectrum college students in these Red States. Although no data exist on the number of transgender students in higher education per state, these students must exist. (2) Trans-Spectrum college students in these Red States face an array of challenges every day both on and off campus from bullying and family struggles to financial struggles to suicidality. (3) The 2016 U.S. Presidential Election had a negative impact on these participants’ college experiences. Interviews conducted with 25 participants comprised the primary data for this study. Participants included students presently attending community college; students presently attending four-year institutions; recent graduates of both community colleges and four-year institutions; and students who departed college. A document review also yielded data. The findings regarding the experiences of Trans-Spectrum college students in Red States since the 2016 U.S. Presidential Election were: (1) A strong majority of participants described their overall college experiences as being shaped by an uncertain and unpredictable learning environment. (2) A strong majority of participants indicated that the 2016 U.S. Presidential Election had a compromising effect on their safety and well-being on campus and in their community. (3) All participants described experiencing issues related to access to resources, campus-wide illiteracy on trans issues, and race and gender identity, while an overwhelming majority of participants described having mental health issues. A strong majority reported incidents of being bullied on campus and in the college community. (4) An overwhelming majority of participants identified a support system as a significant factor in helping them learn to overcome their challenges. The key recommendations that emerged from this study were: (1) Community Colleges should create an Intake Form on which students have the option to self-identify in terms of sexual orientation and gender identity. This will enable these colleges to track data on completion, persistence, and retention of Trans-Spectrum students. (2) Both community colleges and four-year institutions should invest more in mental health services and consider investing more resources in on-campus mental health personnel and resources. (3) Both community colleges and four-year institutions should build community partnerships to provide more resources for Trans-Spectrum students.

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Why is black partisan identification so one-sidedly Democratic forty years past the Civil Rights movement? A black/non-black political dichotomy manifests itself through one-sided African-American partisanship. Racial consciousness and Republican hostility is the basis of the black/non-black political dichotomy, which manifests through African-American partisanship. Racial consciousness forced blacks to take a unique and somewhat jaundiced approach to politics and Republican hostility to black inclusion in the political process in the 1960s followed by antagonism toward public policy contribute to overwhelming black Democratic partisanship. Results shown in this dissertation demonstrate that variables representing economic issues, socioeconomic status and religiosity fail to explain partisan identification to the extent that Hostility-Consciousness explains party identification.

During the presidential contest of 1884, Republicans used singing as a campaign tactic at rallies, meetings, and parades. Their songs may be divided into several categories, such as rally songs, songs of praise for the party and its candidate, "bloody shirt" songs, mudslinging songs, and issue-based songs. Songs provide a perspective on the overall tenor of the campaign, while a lack of songs on certain topics, such as temperance, reflects the party's reluctance to alienate voters by taking a strong stand on controversial issues. Although the campaign has often been called one of the dirtiest in American history, this negativity is not reflected in the majority of the songs.