La démarche d'évaluation des risques sanitaires inclue dans ses étapes l'évaluation de l'exposition professionnelle. S'agissant de l'exposition par inhalation, différents modèles sont disponibles pour caractériser ou estimer les niveaux d'exposition. Les objectifs de cette thèse sont d'étudier et comparer les principales démarches existantes, voire d'en développer de nouvelles, afin de participer à leur validation et de définir leur places respectives en complément de la métrologie quantitative. Un premier chapitre présente les modèles existants et décrit leurs principes et applications. Une méthode qualitative est développée puis comparée à d'autres démarches similaires ainsi qu'à des modèles empiriques afin d'étudier leurs performances dans la caractérisation ou la prédiction des expositions aux solvants de laboratoire (chapitre 2). Nous suggérons l'utilisation en première intention des méthodes qualitatives afin de définir les situations d'exposition prioritaires vis-à-vis desquelles les modèles empiriques peuvent secondairement servir à estimer un niveau d'exposition. Les modèles statistiques de régression linéaire sont étudiés à travers une application dans le secteur du compostage des déchets, confirmant leur capacité à caractériser des déterminants spécifiques de l'exposition (chapitre 3). Les modèles physiques mécanistiques sont testés afin de reproduire des profils temporels de concentration, puis utilisés de façon probabiliste pour estimer la distribution des expositions et des risques sanitaires (chapitre 4). Ces modèles permettent d'approcher la variabilité spatio-temporelle des expositions et d'identifier les mécanismes à l'origine des expositions. Les forces et limites de ces différentes approches sont comparées et des préconisations d'utilisation sont définies, assorties de perspectives de travail (chapitre 5). Mots clefs : exposition, risques, modèles, déterminants, prédictions, variabilité, incertitude. / The health risk assessment method involves the assessment of occupational exposure to pollutants. Restricted to inhalation exposure, several models can be used in order to either characterize or estimate exposure levels. The objectives are to study and compare the main existing models, and eventually to develop new ones, in order to help validating them and also to define their usefulness in addition to traditional individual monitoring. In a first chapter we present the existing models and describe their applications. A qualitative method is developed then compared to both other similar methods and empirical models in order to compare their performances in characterizing or predicting exposure to solvents in laboratories (chapter 2). From this work, we suggest the initial use of qualitative methods to define priority exposure scenarios, then the use of empirical models to predict inhalation exposure. Linear regression statistical models are studied in the field of waste composting, confirming their ability to identify specific determinants of exposure (chapter 3). Physical models are tested in order to reproduce observed time-varying exposure profiles, and then used to estimate the distribution of exposure and health risks (chapter 4). Such models are useful to describe the spatial and temporal variability of exposure, and help understanding the mechanisms of exposure. Strengths and weaknesses of all tested models are then compared and suggestions of use are made as well as work perspectives (chapter 5). Keywords: exposure, risks, models, determinants, predictions, variability, uncertainty.

Many epidemiological studies assess the effects of time-dependent exposures, where both the exposure status and its intensity vary over time. The analysis of such studies poses the challenge of modelling the association between complex time-dependent drug exposure and the risk, especially given the uncertainty about the etiological relevance of doses taken in different time periods. / To address this challenge, I developed a flexible method for modelling cumulative effects of time-varying exposures, weighted by recency, represented by time-dependent covariates in the Cox proportional hazards model. The function that assigns weights to doses taken in the past is estimated using cubic regression splines. Models with different number of knots and constraints are estimated. Bootstrap techniques are used to obtain pointwise confidence bands around the weight functions, accounting for both the sampling variation of the regression coefficients, and the uncertainty at the model selection stage, i.e. the additional variance due to a posteriori selection of the number of knots. / To assess the method in simulations, I had to develop and validate a novel algorithm to generate event times conditional on time-dependent covariates and compared it with the algorithms available in the literature. The proposed algorithm extends a previously proposed permutational algorithm to include a rejection sampler. While all the algorithms generated data sets that, once analyzed, provided virtually unbiased estimates with comparable variances, the algorithm that I proposed reduced the computational time by more than 50 per cent relative to alternative methods. I used simulations to systematically investigate the properties of the weighted cumulative dose method. Six different weight functions were considered. Simulations showed that in most situations, the proposed method was able to capture the shape of the true weight functions and to produce estimates of the magnitude of the exposure effect on the risk that were close to those used to generate the data. I finally illustrated the use of the weighted cumulative dose modelling by reassessing the association between the use of selected benzodiazepines and fall-related injuries, using administrative data on a cohort of elderly who initiated their use of benzodiazepines between 1990 and 2004.

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The purpose of this diploma thesis is to understand financing of drug development from an enterprise risk management perspective as well as to critically assess the efficiency of the ISO framework and risk management techniques used for determining whether to fund drug development or not. The diploma thesis is divided into theoretical and practical part. The first part starts with perception and assessment of uncertainty and risk in the past. It describes how risk-averse individuals attempted to deal with uncertainty and different risk. This is followed by the evolution of traditional risk management into the fast developing enterprise risk management. The text further analyses commonly used risk management standards COSO ERM and ISO 31000:2009. However, the main focus is on the critical assessment of analytical tools which are frequently used for evaluating and assessing risks, especially financial ones, during drug development. The theoretical part is finished by a drug development process, whose phases are briefly described. The practical part was written in co-operation with AstraZeneca, a top-notch pharmaceutical company. The overview of its business is preceded by an explanation of current issues in the pharmaceutical industry. Furthermore, the risk analysis is conducted with respect to the ISO framework. Subsequently, selected risk assessment techniques are applied on the simplified financial model of two different drugs, which was created based on AstraZeneca's real data. These risk assessment tools are used in different phases of drug development so it could be seen clearly how the results are changing during a project. The outcomes of this risk analysis are compared with original plans used by AstraZeneca which were used for deciding whether to fund drug development or not.

INTRODUÇÃO: O antecedente de parto prematuro espontâneo em gestação anterior é considerado o principal e mais importante fator de risco clínico para prematuridade, principal causa de morbidade e mortalidade neonatal. Cerca de 25% das pacientes que tiveram parto prematuro apresentarão recorrência. A prevenção secundária consiste na pesquisa de marcadores de maior risco, com o intuito de instituir medidas terapêuticas apropriadas e de evitar tratamentos desnecessários. A hipótese do presente estudo é a de que existe correlação entre os resultados da avaliação do colo uterino e do teste para proteína-1 fosforilada ligada ao fator de crescimento insulina-símile (phIGFBP-1) e que a utilização de ambos em associação possa predizer a ocorrência de parto prematuro com maior sensibilidade. OBJETIVOS: Averiguar a utilidade da medida do comprimento do colo uterino e do teste para phIGFBP-1 na predição do parto prematuro antes de 37 e de 34 semanas, a existência de relação dos testes entre si, o melhor valor de corte da medida do colo em diferentes idades gestacionais e a melhor época de realização de cada um dos exames. MÉTODO: Foram compilados e submetidos a análise secundária os dados de 101 gestantes com antecedente de parto prematuro atendidas no Setor de Baixo Peso Fetal da Clínica Obstétrica do Hospital das Clínicas da Faculdade de Medicina da Universidade de São Paulo, entre 2003 e 2008. A medida do comprimento cervical e o teste para phIGFBP-1 foram realizados a cada três semanas, entre 24 e 34 semanas de gestação, e comparados com o desfecho de parto prematuro e nascimento com 34 semanas ou menos, e o melhor valor de corte do colo uterino foi estabelecido por meio de curva de características operacionais. RESULTADOS: Das 101 gestações estudadas, 25 (24,8%) terminaram em parto prematuro, das quais 12 (11,9%) ocorreram com 34 semanas ou menos. As idades gestacionais médias de avaliação foram de 24, 27, 30 e 33 semanas, e os valores de corte do colo uterino foram de 22, 21, 20 e 16 mm, respectivamente. A medida do comprimento do colo apresentou maior sensibilidade (cerca de 70%) e foi capaz de predizer o parto prematuro em todas as avaliações. O teste para phIGFBP-1 não foi útil com 24 semanas, porém foi capaz de detectar de forma independente o risco de prematuridade com 27, com 30 e com 33 semanas. Houve associação estatística dos exames entre si, de forma que o comprimento cervical médio foi menor em gestantes com teste positivo para phIGFBP-1. A associação dos exames elevou a sensibilidade e o valor preditivo negativo de forma significativa. CONCLUSÕES: A medida do comprimento do colo pela ultrassonografia transvaginal constitui bom marcador de risco para parto prematuro com 24 semanas, e o teste para phIGFBP-1 é útil após 27 semanas. A associação dos dois exames possui alta sensibilidade e alto valor preditivo negativo em gestantes de alto risco para prematuridade espontânea, e a realização do primeiro com 24 semanas e do segundo com 27 semanas constitui bom modelo preditivo para o parto prematuro / INTRODUCTION: The history of spontaneous preterm birth in a previous pregnancy is considered the main and most important clinical risk factor for preterm birth, the leading cause of neonatal morbidity and mortality. About 25% of these patients will deliver prematurely again. Secondary prevention consists in the search for markers of increased risk, in order to institute appropriate therapeutic actions and to avoid unnecessary treatments. The hypothesis of this study is that there is a correlation between the results of the evaluation of the cervix and the test for phosphorylated insulin-like growth factor binding protein-1 (phIGFBP-1) and that the use of both in combination can predict the occurrence of preterm delivery with higher sensitivity. OBJECTIVES: To investigate the usefulness of the measurement of the cervical length and phIGFBP-1 rapid test in the prediction of preterm birth before 37 and 34 weeks, the existence of a relationship between the tests themselves, the best cutoff value of cervical length measurement at different gestational ages and the best time to carry out each of the exams. METHODS: Data of 101 women with previous preterm birth assisted at the Obstetrical Clinic of the Hospital das Clínicas, Faculty of Medicine, University of São Paulo between 2003 and 2008 were collected and subjected to secondary analysis. The measurement of cervical length and the phIGFBP-1 test were performed every three weeks, between 24 and 34 weeks gestation, and compared with the outcome of premature birth before 37 and 34 weeks, and the best cutoff value of the cervix was determined by receiver operator characteristic curves. RESULTS: Of the 101 pregnancies studied, 25 (24.8%) ended in preterm birth, of which 12 (11.9%) occurred at 34 weeks or less. The mean gestational age in each evaluation was 24, 27, 30 and 33 weeks, and the cutoff of the cervix were 22, 21, 20 and 16 millimeters, respectively. The measurement of cervical length showed the highest sensitivity (approximately 70%) and was able to predict preterm birth in all evaluations. The phIGFBP-1 test was not useful at 24 weeks, but was able to independently detect the risk of prematurity at 27, 30 and 33 weeks. Statistical association between the exams was observed, so that the mean cervical length was lower in pregnant women testing positive for phIGFBP-1. The combination of both tests significantly increased the sensitivity and negative predictive value. CONCLUSIONS: The measurement of cervical length by transvaginal ultrasound is a good marker of risk for preterm delivery at 24 weeks, and the test for phIGFBP-1 is useful after 27 weeks. The association of the two tests is valuable and shows high sensitivity and high negative predictive value in women at high risk for spontaneous preterm birth, when the first is preformed with 24 weeks, and the second with 27 weeks

INTRODUÇÃO: O antecedente de parto prematuro espontâneo em gestação anterior é considerado o principal e mais importante fator de risco clínico para prematuridade, principal causa de morbidade e mortalidade neonatal. Cerca de 25% das pacientes que tiveram parto prematuro apresentarão recorrência. A prevenção secundária consiste na pesquisa de marcadores de maior risco, com o intuito de instituir medidas terapêuticas apropriadas e de evitar tratamentos desnecessários. A hipótese do presente estudo é a de que existe correlação entre os resultados da avaliação do colo uterino e do teste para proteína-1 fosforilada ligada ao fator de crescimento insulina-símile (phIGFBP-1) e que a utilização de ambos em associação possa predizer a ocorrência de parto prematuro com maior sensibilidade. OBJETIVOS: Averiguar a utilidade da medida do comprimento do colo uterino e do teste para phIGFBP-1 na predição do parto prematuro antes de 37 e de 34 semanas, a existência de relação dos testes entre si, o melhor valor de corte da medida do colo em diferentes idades gestacionais e a melhor época de realização de cada um dos exames. MÉTODO: Foram compilados e submetidos a análise secundária os dados de 101 gestantes com antecedente de parto prematuro atendidas no Setor de Baixo Peso Fetal da Clínica Obstétrica do Hospital das Clínicas da Faculdade de Medicina da Universidade de São Paulo, entre 2003 e 2008. A medida do comprimento cervical e o teste para phIGFBP-1 foram realizados a cada três semanas, entre 24 e 34 semanas de gestação, e comparados com o desfecho de parto prematuro e nascimento com 34 semanas ou menos, e o melhor valor de corte do colo uterino foi estabelecido por meio de curva de características operacionais. RESULTADOS: Das 101 gestações estudadas, 25 (24,8%) terminaram em parto prematuro, das quais 12 (11,9%) ocorreram com 34 semanas ou menos. As idades gestacionais médias de avaliação foram de 24, 27, 30 e 33 semanas, e os valores de corte do colo uterino foram de 22, 21, 20 e 16 mm, respectivamente. A medida do comprimento do colo apresentou maior sensibilidade (cerca de 70%) e foi capaz de predizer o parto prematuro em todas as avaliações. O teste para phIGFBP-1 não foi útil com 24 semanas, porém foi capaz de detectar de forma independente o risco de prematuridade com 27, com 30 e com 33 semanas. Houve associação estatística dos exames entre si, de forma que o comprimento cervical médio foi menor em gestantes com teste positivo para phIGFBP-1. A associação dos exames elevou a sensibilidade e o valor preditivo negativo de forma significativa. CONCLUSÕES: A medida do comprimento do colo pela ultrassonografia transvaginal constitui bom marcador de risco para parto prematuro com 24 semanas, e o teste para phIGFBP-1 é útil após 27 semanas. A associação dos dois exames possui alta sensibilidade e alto valor preditivo negativo em gestantes de alto risco para prematuridade espontânea, e a realização do primeiro com 24 semanas e do segundo com 27 semanas constitui bom modelo preditivo para o parto prematuro / INTRODUCTION: The history of spontaneous preterm birth in a previous pregnancy is considered the main and most important clinical risk factor for preterm birth, the leading cause of neonatal morbidity and mortality. About 25% of these patients will deliver prematurely again. Secondary prevention consists in the search for markers of increased risk, in order to institute appropriate therapeutic actions and to avoid unnecessary treatments. The hypothesis of this study is that there is a correlation between the results of the evaluation of the cervix and the test for phosphorylated insulin-like growth factor binding protein-1 (phIGFBP-1) and that the use of both in combination can predict the occurrence of preterm delivery with higher sensitivity. OBJECTIVES: To investigate the usefulness of the measurement of the cervical length and phIGFBP-1 rapid test in the prediction of preterm birth before 37 and 34 weeks, the existence of a relationship between the tests themselves, the best cutoff value of cervical length measurement at different gestational ages and the best time to carry out each of the exams. METHODS: Data of 101 women with previous preterm birth assisted at the Obstetrical Clinic of the Hospital das Clínicas, Faculty of Medicine, University of São Paulo between 2003 and 2008 were collected and subjected to secondary analysis. The measurement of cervical length and the phIGFBP-1 test were performed every three weeks, between 24 and 34 weeks gestation, and compared with the outcome of premature birth before 37 and 34 weeks, and the best cutoff value of the cervix was determined by receiver operator characteristic curves. RESULTS: Of the 101 pregnancies studied, 25 (24.8%) ended in preterm birth, of which 12 (11.9%) occurred at 34 weeks or less. The mean gestational age in each evaluation was 24, 27, 30 and 33 weeks, and the cutoff of the cervix were 22, 21, 20 and 16 millimeters, respectively. The measurement of cervical length showed the highest sensitivity (approximately 70%) and was able to predict preterm birth in all evaluations. The phIGFBP-1 test was not useful at 24 weeks, but was able to independently detect the risk of prematurity at 27, 30 and 33 weeks. Statistical association between the exams was observed, so that the mean cervical length was lower in pregnant women testing positive for phIGFBP-1. The combination of both tests significantly increased the sensitivity and negative predictive value. CONCLUSIONS: The measurement of cervical length by transvaginal ultrasound is a good marker of risk for preterm delivery at 24 weeks, and the test for phIGFBP-1 is useful after 27 weeks. The association of the two tests is valuable and shows high sensitivity and high negative predictive value in women at high risk for spontaneous preterm birth, when the first is preformed with 24 weeks, and the second with 27 weeks