Supply Chain Risk Management (SCRM) is rapidly becoming a most sought after research area due to the influence of recent supply chain disruptions on global economy. The thesis begins with a systematic literature review of the developments within the broad domain of SCRM over the past decade. Thematic and descriptive analysis supported with modern knowledge management techniques brings forward seven distinctive research gaps for future research in SCRM. Overlapping research findings from an industry perspective, coupled with SCRM research gaps from the systematic literature review has helped to define the research problem for this study. The thesis focuses on a holistic and systematic approach to modelling risks within supply chain and logistics networks. The systems thinking approach followed conceptualises the phenomenon of risk propagation utilising several recent case studies, workshop findings and focus studies. Risk propagation is multidimensional and propagates beyond goods, finance and information resource. It cascades into technology, human resource and socio-ecological dimensions. Three risk propagation zones are identified that build the fundamentals for modelling risk behaviour in terms of cost and delay. The development of a structured framework for SCRM, a holistic supply chain risk model and a quantitative research design for risk assessment are the major contributions of this research. The developed risk assessment platform has the ability to capture the fracture points and cascading impact within a supply chain and logistics network. A reputed aerospace and defence organisation in UK was used to test the experimental modelling set up for its viability and for bridging the gap between theory and practice. The combined statistical and simulation modelling approach provides a new perspective to assessing the complex behavioural performance of risks during multiple interactions within network.

The failure of many System of Systems (SoS) enterprises can be attributed to the inappropriate application of traditional Systems Engineering (SE) processes within the SoS domain, because of the mistaken belief that a SoS can be regarded as a single large, or complex, system. SoS Engineering (SoSE) is a sub-discipline of SE; Risk Management and Modelling and Simulation (M&S) are key areas within SoSE, both of which also lie within the traditional SE domain. Risk Management of SoS requires a different approach to that currently taken for individual systems; if risk is managed for each component system then it cannot be assumed that the aggregated affect will be to mitigate risk at the SoS level. A literature review was undertaken examining three themes: (1) SoS Engineering (SoSE), (2) M&S and (3) Risk. Theme 1 of the literature provided insight into the activities comprising SoSE and its difference from traditional SE with risk management identified as a key activity. The second theme discussed the application of M&S to SoS, providing an output, which supported the identification of appropriate techniques and concluding that, the inherent complexity of a SoS required the use of M&S in order to support SoSE activities. Current risk management approaches were reviewed in theme 3 as well as the management of SoS risk. Although some specific examples of the management of SoS risk were found, no mature, general approach was identified, indicating a gap in current knowledge. However, it was noted most of these examples were underpinned by M&S approaches. It was therefore concluded a general approach SoS risk management utilising M&S methods would be of benefit. In order to fill the gap identified in current knowledge, this research proposed a new model based approach to Risk Management where risk identification was supported by a framework, which combined SoS system of interest dimensions with holistic risk types, where the resulting risks and contributing factors are captured in a causal network. Analysis of the causal network using a model technique selection tool, developed as part of this research, allowed the causal network to be simplified through the replacement of groups of elements within the network by appropriate supporting models. The Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) was identified as a suitable method to represent SoS risk. Supporting models run in Monte Carlo Simulations allowed data to be generated from which the risk BBNs could learn, thereby providing a more quantitative approach to SoS risk management. A method was developed which provided context to the BBN risk output through comparison with worst and best-case risk probabilities. The model based approach to Risk Management was applied to two very different case studies: Close Air Support mission planning and the Wheat Supply Chain, UK National Food Security risks, demonstrating its effectiveness and adaptability. The research established that the SoS SoI is essential for effective SoS risk identification and analysis of risk transfer, effective SoS modelling requires a range of techniques where suitability is determined by the problem context, the responsibility for SoS Risk Management is related to the overall SoS classification and the model based approach to SoS risk management was effective for both application case studies.

Dissertation submitted in fulfilment of the requirements for the degree Master of Technology: Internal Auditing in the Faculty of Business and Management Sciences at the Cape Peninsula University of Technology / The aim of the study was to investigate the effectiveness of risk management systems within municipalities in the Overberg district of South Africa. The value of effective risk management systems in any organisation cannot be underestimated as it is responsible for appropriately identifying, assessing, and treating risks that may adversely influence the achievement of organisational objectives. The Overberg district municipalities were used as case studies to identify and evaluate the factors that could affect implementation of risk management systems at a local government level in a specific geographical area. The primary research question was what factors affect the effective implementation of risk management systems at the Overberg district municipalities. To answer this research question, sub-questions and research objectives were formulated to determine the relevant factors. The research employed descriptive statistics, as well as inferential analysis to analyse the data. Lack of sufficient funding for risk mitigation seemed to be the main factor that affects the implementation of risk management systems within the municipalities. In addition, the research highlighted the current gaps in the implementation of risk management processes. This made municipalities aware of the risks within their organisation and identified the benefits of implementing sound risk management initiatives. The contribution of the research will empower the Overberg district municipalities to manage their key organisational risks proactively. This will lead to sustainable local governments that will be able to continue to perform their primary functions effectively. From the results, it was evident that although the Overberg district municipalities had risk management systems in place, insufficient funding posed a challenge to effective risk mitigation. Municipal management should therefore allocate sufficient funding to ensure effective implementation of risk management systems.

Thesis (MPhil)--Stellenbosch University, 2005. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: In the last decade, the use of computers has proliferated the industrial arena in South Africa. Due to frequent changes in computer programs and developments in the computing field, users have often been adversely affected. Users experience problems with computer programs that are not user friendly. Usability is about satisfying the user needs by allowing the user to accomplish their goals quickly, efficiently and easily. Thus it is crucial that industries invest in computer programs that offer optimum usability. In this research an attempt is made to provide a framework for methodology that can be used to test and evaluate usability in the Transwerk Risk Management Information System, that is Computer Assisted Risk Management Systems (CARMS). I first consider the difference between unusable and usable programs. Usability properties are then identified including properties enhancing effectiveness, efficiency, flexibility, laemability and attitude of the computer program. The CARMS components or modules and users were identified. Usability problems were identified that cause the users to be selective and discouraged to use other components of CARMS. To further verified and address the usability problems identified, the whole program needs to be tested and evaluated. The methodology was laid for how to do usability testing and evaluation in computer program that are currently in use like CARMS. Benefits and limitations of testing and evaluating usability were detailed in this research. It is recommended that, testing and evaluating usability should be done to prevent errors, dissatisfaction and to improve usability of the CARMS program. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: In die laaste dekade het die gebruik van rekenaars uitgebrei in die industriele arena in Suid-Afrika. Weens gereelde veranderings in rekenaar programme en ontwikkellings in die informatika veld is gebruikers gereeld nadelig geraak. Gebruikers ervaar probleme met rekenaar programme wat nie gebruikersvriendelik is nie. Bruikbaarheid het te make met bevrediging van gebruikersbehoeftes deur hulle in staat te stel om hulle doelwitte vinnig, doelmatig en maklik te bereik. Dit is dus van kritiese belang dat industriee investeer in rekenaar programme wat optimale bruikbaarheid bied. In hierdie navorsing word gepoog om 'n raamwerk vir metodologie wat gebruik kan word om die bruikbaarheid van die "Transwerk Risk Management Information System" (dit is "Computer Assisted Risk Management Systems" of CARMS) te toets en te evalueer. Ek bespreek eerstens die verskil tussen onbruikbare en bruikbare programme. Bruikbaarheidseienskappe word dan geidentifiseer, insluitend eienskappe wat doeltreffendheid, doelmatigheid, buigsaamheid, aanleerbaarheid en houding van die rekenaar program verbeter. Die CARMS komponente of modules en gebruikers is geidentifiseer. Bruikbaarheidsprobleme is geidentifiseer wat veroorsaak dat gebruikers selektief raak en ontmoedig raak om ander komponente van CARMS te gebruik. Om verder die geidentifiseerde bruikbaarheidsprobleme te verifieer en adreseer moet die hele program getoets en evalueer word. Die metodologie is vasgele waarvolgens bruikbaarheidstoetsing en evaluasie van rekenaar programme wat tans in gebruik is (soos CARMS) gedoen kan word. Voordele en beperkings van bruikbaarheidstoetsing en -evaluasie is in hierdie navorsing vervat. Dit word aanbeveel dat bruikbaarheidstoetsing en -evaluasie gedoen moet word om foute en ontevredenheid te voorkom en om die bruikbaarheid van die CARMS program te verbeter.