Since the terrorist attacks on the World Trade Center, New York in September 2001, the focus on terrorism and the ability of society and organisations to withstand such incidents has sharpened considerably. At the same time, business continuity and dealing with crises have moved to the forefront of organisations' awareness, not least due to improved regulatory requirements and guidelines. However, this thesis contends that the current methodological framework for responding to terrorist incidents is flawed, resulting in the same issues becoming evident, over and over again. It is argued that an awareness and adoption of three key risk and crisis management methodologies: Fink's Crisis Management Methodology, Risk Communication and Isomorphic Learning, could improve the analysis of such incidents and hence better the response in future. Three significant terrorist attacks were analysed within the context of contemporary literature and two factors were found to be the main cause of difficulties in managing the response to each of the incidents: communication and an inability to achieve organisational learning. It was argued that part of the reason for this was that organisations did not consider a link between crisis and terrorist incident response management and that learning from past experiences did not go beyond the most superficial level in most instances. This thesis demonstrated how risk and crisis management methodologies could have addressed each of the issues that were identified in the case studies and clarified the contribution that they could make. Of primary importance was the recognition that events that may appear dissimilar are, on examination, frequently intrinsically similar and hence can provide valuable learning opportunities.

The methodological framework for informed decision-making known as Environmental Systems Assessment (ESA) is derived from, and is shown to contain, the existing tools of Risk Assessment, Decision Analysis and Life Cycle Assessment (LCA). Communication is identified as a problem within ESA. A panel process in local waste management between a UK Council, its local lay public and experts illustrates a new methodological implementation of ESA in which risk, decision analytic and life cycle information were all present in parallel and in different forms. These included an innovative and interactive multimedia CD-ROM tailored to the locality (known as 'WOMBLE') and the WISARD software developed with, among other bodies, the Environment Agency of England and Wales. The communications and information in the process are evaluated by social research, the learning of the participants is assessed and it is shown that while a number of significant actions were agreed upon, individual preferences were still stable and significantly different. The potential of the approach is assessed.

The thesis titled Risk analysis in a manufacturing company aims to analyze risks. The first part contains theoretical bases, which are important for practical application. These are mainly in using methods of risk analysis, classification and risk reduction options. The second part focuses on the identification of risk itself. After assessing the risks there will be assessed their impact. The last part will introduce measures that will lead to the elimination of the risk or to eliminate them completely. This thesis presents a comprehensive analysis of the risks that could serve as a basis for future management decisions in risk management.

This thesis explores fifteen women’s accounts of pregnancy over the course of gestation. It highlights the fluidity and dynamism of these women’s experiences, placing these in the context of the breadth of medical interventions they engaged with. Much existing literature concerning pregnancy focuses on specific instances of contact with medical professionals or technological interventions. This study explores the mundane and routine elements of the everyday practice of pregnancy, including during the first trimester. This is a period rarely addressed in academic literature. The thesis draws on data from in-depth interviews with women in Scotland, experiencing a continuing pregnancy for the first time. These were conducted at three points over the course of gestation. Interviews aimed to explore women’s interactions with medical interventions, their conceptualisations of the foetus, and changing experiences of embodiment. Analysis took place in several stages, incorporating three ‘readings’ of interviews and the development of a case study for each participant. This was inspired by the voice centred relational method of analysis. Themes were then identified and developed within, and between, individual women’s accounts. Participants’ narratives, particularly in early pregnancy, resonated with Rothman’s (1988) concept of the ‘tentative pregnancy’, originally developed to describe pregnancy in the wake of amniocentesis. Tentativeness emerged as a key theme characterising women’s experiences. Tentativeness was especially evident during the first trimester, largely due to women’s understanding that the risk of miscarriage was at its highest during this period. Women described managing their emotions at this time, in order to balance excitement about their wanted pregnancy with the possibility that it may end in a pregnancy loss. One aspect of this emotion work, explored in this thesis, was the effort made by women to keep their pregnancy a secret from wider family and friends for the first twelve weeks of gestation. Medical intervention and its associated technologies played a key role in both constructing pregnancy as tentative, but paradoxically, also provided a means to resolve this through reassurance. Women engaged with these interventions flexibly. In contrast to much existing literature, this thesis highlights that while contact with prenatal technologies cemented the reality of the pregnancy for some, they also had the power to add to the ambiguity of participants’ status as a ‘pregnant woman’. In later pregnancy, women’s shifting embodied experiences contributed to a reduction in tentativeness. The ability to feel definite foetal movements, coupled with medical and popular discourses of foetal viability, allowed women to feel less anxious about the safety of the pregnancy and the foetus. As a result, women reported changed interactions with health professionals and advice during the final trimester of pregnancy. This thesis, engaging with literature from sociology, science and technology studies (STS) and anthropology, makes theoretical contributions in three areas. First, its consideration of gestation over time nuances discussions of pregnancy in terms of risk. Second, this research further contributes to literature regarding pregnant embodiment, and conceptualisations of the foetus. Third, the thesis demonstrates that relationships between forms of knowledge mobilised by participants during pregnancy were complex, shifting over the course of gestation, and reflective of women’s experiences of pregnancy as tentative.

Global sourcing has become strategically important for all large capital projects in today’s world. This study identified that 11% to over 51% of the budget spent on large capital projects is absorbed by global sourcing. The complexity of global sourcing requires that a multifaceted due diligence scan of the market dynamics and stakeholder interfaces be conducted to ensure that key strategic elements of projects are well understood. There is evidence that when global sourcing risks and challenges are dealt with through a structured and integrated risk management plan, project cost, time and the right level of project quality can be successfully delivered. Furthermore, experience shows that project decisions that are made purely based on capital cost whilst failing to consider the life cycle cost of equipment in terms of capital expenditure to operational expenditure ratio for the life of the project, may prove counterproductive in the long run. This research study set out to investigate the integrated risk management framework necessary to ensure success in global sourcing for large capital projects. It looked at the impact of global sourcing for large capital projects and how pre-emptive risk management practices help to improve project performance. Global experiences and cumulative knowledge was captured from technical experts and project management teams who have handled large projects in various sectors. As a core focus, the research interrogated the most important criteria necessary to measure and ascertain the impact of non-risk adjusted global sourcing on large capital projects in terms of project time, cost and quality. A quantitative study design was adopted to identify the risk management rules for successful global sourcing and measure their impact. Data was collated from large capital projects in 40 countries, six continents through 89 respondents via an online survey tool authenticating the global perspective of this study. A resulting risk management model derived from the consolidated input seeks to introduce a new dimension to the body of project management knowledge related to the executing of large capital projects. / Dissertation (MBA)--University of Pretoria, 2013. / mngibs2014 / Gordon Institute of Business Science (GIBS) / MBA / Unrestricted

The thesis is composed of three essays on mergers and acquisitions: deal initiation and insider trading. Specifically, it tries to figure out the reasons and managers’ motivation concerning M&A deal initiation as well as analyze insiders’ trades in target and acquiring firms both before and after the takeover public announcement date. Chapter 2 shows that target versus bidder initiated deals differ in two main respects. First, target initiated deals have higher insider and CEO ownership that motivates the management to engage in the sale. Second, target initiated firms are more levered and seem to have higher growth options. This suggests that an important motivation behind the board’s decision to initiate a sale of their firm is to preserve growth options in a situation with potential financial distress. A complementary analysis shows larger differences between deal versus non-deal firms that remain publicly listed. In Chapter 3, we find that target insiders stop selling during 6 months immediately before the public announcement but do not stop selling in the early pre-announcement period. Moreover, we show that target insiders are stronger net buyers before the public announcement in informal sales, cash and financial deals. Furthermore, target insiders in stock deals do not stop selling even immediately before the public announcement, which supports the bidder overvaluation hypothesis. In addition, we find that target insiders change their trading patterns after the deal public announcement. Insiders are stronger net buyers in target initiated deals, formal auctions and cash deals. Chapter 4 shows that, overall, acquirer insiders decrease their purchases and sales to same extent during the 2 months immediately before the public announcement. Concerning deal characteristics, we show that acquirer insiders are stronger net buyers both before and after the announcement date in stock deals relatively to cash deals and in informal sales relatively to formal auctions. The two factors reinforcing each other. For informal sales, acquirer insiders are stronger net buyers in stock deals before the public announcement but change to cash deals after the public announcement.

The banking industry in South Africa is facing three main challenges, namely: continuous change, foreign competition, and increasing levels of risk. These problems flow mainly from cultural diversity, globalisation, and rapid technological development in systems and communication. Decreasing predictability stems to a great extent from a lack of foreknowledge of how globalisation will develop, and how it can influence the South African banking industry in general and holistic risk management (HRM) in particular. Management of the South African banking industry therefore need to rely on crucial intelligence and foreknowledge concerning events, trends and development of (HRM) that affect the profitability and future strategic viability of the whole South African banking industry. At the onset various concepts and processes were emphasised in this study, namely operational risk management, strategic risk management, the risk management culture in the banking industry, the role of risk management in the banking industry, the role of risk management process in the banking industry, corporate governance in the banking industry in South Africa. However, the main purpose of this study was to explore the need and the dynamics of managing risk in the banking industry in a holistic manner. To this end the development of, and trends in (HRM) as part of good corporate governance in the banking industry were researched and documented. The practical aspect of the study was firstly based on the definition and analysis of different categories of risk in the banking industry. The definition and analysis was done in order to cover a broader range of risks the banking industry is facing. Secondly the risk management culture in the banking industry was investigated. Thirdly the role of risk management in the banking industry was explored in detail. Fourthly the risk management process in the banking industry was investigated and explained. Fifthly the link between risk management and corporate governance was explored. Sixthly models developed by Kloman (2000), Lam (2003) and Regester and Larkin (2005) were used as a benchmark to develop a framework for the management of holistic risk in the banking industry. It was concluded that in view of the need in the South African banking industry for a structured means of managing risk holistically, and in view of HRM constituting such a process, there is relevance for the implementation of HRM in the four big banks of the South African banking industry. However, small and unlisted banks do not manage HRM as suggested by the HRM framework. In this regard a number of recommendations were made with respect to managing HRM proactively. A framework based on empirical research and earlier work by Kloman (2000), Lam (2003) and Regester and Larkin (2005) was furthermore suggested for the implementation of HRM in the South African banking industry in the belief that this framework, and the overall research reported in this study could be of theoretical as well as practical value for risk managers in the South African banking industry. / Dr. D. J. Theron (UJ) Dr. T. P. v/d Walt (ABSA)

Please read the abstract (Thesis Summary) in the section, 00front of this document / Thesis (PhD (Engineering))--University of Pretoria, 2008. / Industrial and Systems Engineering / PhD / Unrestricted

This research addressed the question of how information technology (IT) tools influence the perceived risk of consumers in e-commerce transactions in three phases. First, an exposure-driven model of e-commerce transaction perceived risk was developed and tested, providing a theoretical and conceptual basis for this research. Nine salient risk beliefs were modeled as formative dimensions of three risk belief categories based on prior perceived risk research: information misuse risk, performance risk, and functionality inefficiency risk. The model was tested in an online survey of 565 internet users. The results support the proposed construct of e-commerce transaction perceived risk, modeled as formed by the three proposed risk categories, validating the measurement model and finding that the construct was associated as expected with accepted e-commerce constructs in a nomological network. In the second phase, this model was used to examine the ways in which IT tools influence those beliefs. Participants were asked to observe an example of one risk-reducing IT tool (RRIT) and to indicate their willingness to use the tool for reducing the probability of each risk category and risk dimension. This research confirmed that consumers do perceive RRIT as being useful in reducing the probabilities of risk categories, compared to their willingness to adopt a control IT tool or other RRIT for that purpose. The final phase of this research investigates the adoption and influence of RRIT. Participants were shown an example RRIT and were asked to compare a store providing the tool to an identical website that did not provide the tool. This research supported hypotheses that perceived improvements in the probability of one or more of the risk dimensions when an RRIT is provided would lead to an intention to adopt the RRIT, and that the intention to adopt the RRIT would be associated with an improvement in attitude toward buying from a web retailer and the subsequent improvement in intention to buy from a web retailer. / Business, Sauder School of / Graduate

Many infrastructure networks rely on each other to deliver utilities and services to the community. In the event of a disaster, these networks can sustain significant damage. It is therefore important to identify interdependencies among networks to mitigate the disaster consequences. In 2003, Public Safety Canada (PSC) and NSERC initiated the Joint Infrastructure Interdependencies Research Program (JIIRP) for this purpose. The research was carried out at six Universities across Canada including the University of British Columbia (UBC). The aim of JIIRP at UBC was to study infrastructure interdependencies during disasters in order to aid in decision making. This involved the development disaster simulation methodology and tool, and the implementation of a case study. UBC's Point Grey campus was used as case study. The campus is located in southwestern British Columbia, a known seismic zone, therefore earthquake disaster scenario was chosen. Reasonable estimations of the expected seismic damage and losses are required in order to simulate a realistic disaster scenario. For this reason, in this thesis, seismic risk assessment was carried out for the buildings at UBC. This involved the development of a building database, the assessment of the expected level of damage to the structural and nonstructural building components, and the estimation of monetary, human and functionality losses. Buildings in the database were classified into prototypes and the damage was estimated for several levels ofintensity using damage probability matrices. As expected, the most vulnerable buildings on campus were those containing unreinforced masonry. These buildings make up 7% of the buildings on campus. The least vulnerable buildings were multi-family residential woodbuildings which account for 27% of the buildings on campus. Losses were estimated following the damage assessments. Casualties were estimated for three times of day. 2PM was determined to be the critical time of day as the campus population is the greatest at this time. Monetary loss and functionality trends were examined with respect to earthquake intensity and it was shown that for moderate intensity earthquakes, the losses depend primarily on nonstructural damage, while structural damage plays the most important role for higher intensities. / Applied Science, Faculty of / Civil Engineering, Department of / Graduate