Doctor of Philosophy / Psychological Sciences / Kimberly Kirkpatrick / Risky decisions are inherently characterized by the potential to receive gains and losses from these choices, and gains and losses have distinct effects on global risky choice behavior and the likelihoods of making risky choices depending on the outcome of the previous choice. One translationally-relevant phenomenon of risky choice is loss-chasing, in which individuals make risky choices following losses. However, the mechanisms of loss-chasing are poorly understood. The goal of two experiments was to illuminate the mechanisms governing individual differences in loss-chasing and risky choice behaviors. In two experiments, rats chose between a certain outcome that always delivered reward and a risky outcome that probabilistically delivered reward. In Experiment 1, loss processing and loss-chasing behavior were assessed in the context of losses-disguised-as-wins (LDWs), or loss outcomes presented along with gain-related stimuli. The rats presented with LDWs were riskier and less sensitive to differential losses. In Experiment 2, these behaviors were assessed relative to the number of risky losses that could be experienced. Here, the addition of reward omission or a small non-zero loss to the possible risky outcomes elicited substantial individual differences in risky choice, with some rats increasing, decreasing, or maintaining their previous risky choice preferences. Several reinforcement learning (RL) models were fit to individual rats’ data to elucidate the possible psychological mechanisms that best accounted for individual differences in risky choice and loss-chasing behaviors. The RL analyses indicated that the critical predictors of risky choice and loss-chasing behavior were the different rates that individuals updated value estimates with newly experienced gains and losses. Thus, learning deficits may predict individual differences in maladaptive risky decision making. Accordingly, targeted interventions to alleviate learning deficits may ultimately increase the likelihood of making more optimal and informed choices.

The aim of my thesis was to analyze and identify main types of risks and uncertainties, which can be faced by international companies. I also described main ways and methods of avoidance and minimisation of such risky situations. AB Inbev was chosen as an example since I was working in the branch of this company located in Prague, Czech Republic. This explains my concentration mainly on the market for beverages.

The purpose of this study was to examine the roles that values and the family environment play in young adult engagement in risky behavior. One hundred seventy-two male and female college students between the ages of 18-25 completed a demographics questionnaire, the Aspirations Index which measures seven life-goal contents that represent different values, the Cognitive Appraisal of Risky Events that assesses young adults’ perceptions of the risks and benefits associated with involvement in risky activities as well as past involvement in risky behaviors and the Family Environment Scale to assess participants' perceptions of their current family environment. A series of regression analyses were then used to assess the relationship between three dimensions of the family environment and risky behavior involvement and the relationship between participants' intrinsic and extrinsic values and perceived positive consequences and negative consequences of risky behavior. Results from this study supported the idea that certain dimensions of the family environment are related to risk-taking behavior in emerging adults; however, contrary to previous research, the relationship dimension of the family environment was not predictive of young adult risk-taking. Moreover, family activities that communicate family values did not contribute any additional information to the prediction of risk-taking behavior. Findings from this study suggest that emerging adult values are related to emerging adult perceptions of the hazards and benefits of risky behavior. Results from this study also highlighted the importance of gender and first-generation college status in predicting risk-taking frequency as well as perceived benefits and hazards of risk-taking. Implications for findings of the current study, limitations, and recommendations for future research are also discussed.

Consumer impulsivity accounts for a large percentage of purchases yet this aspect of personality is measured with a variety of instruments. Three studies were conducted to examine how measures of consumer impulsiveness relate to each other, other measures of trait level impulsivity, and a variety of decisions and judgments. These studies looked at the relationship between biases resulting from motivated reasoning and the trait of impulsiveness. Motivated reasoning and impulsiveness was considered within the context of consumer and other choice decisions. Consumer impulsivity was found to be related to both general measures of trait level impulsivity as well as containing a lot of content overlap among the three measures considered here. One measure was distinct and formed its own factor in a factor analysis suggesting it may be the most specific measure of consumer impulsivity. The other measures of consumer impulsivity overlapped quite a bit with general impulsivity. The Iowa Gambling Task was used to measure both choice behavior and anticipatory SCR, however no significant results were found. The cups task, a risky decision making task, was also administered and results mirrored classic findings such that participants were more risk averse in the domain of gains than losses. Additionally, both expected value and outcome magnitude influenced results. Individuals who scored higher on the UPPS urgency subscale made more risk advantageous choices when looking at sensitivity to expected value. The third task assessed differences in purchase time for hedonic and utilitarian items. Impulsive consumers reported they would purchase both hedonic and utilitarian items sooner than their less impulsive counterparts.

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INTRODUCTION: Approximately two-thirds of the U.S. population have had at least one adverse childhood experience (CDC-Kaiser Permanente Adverse Childhood Experiences [ACE] Study, 2009). Some consequences of ACEs are manifested as the child grows into late teenage years and young adulthood. Research suggests that children exposed to traumatic events during childhood subsequently experience negative health outcomes like substance abuse, engagement in risky and harmful sexual behavior, and STD occurrence. AIM: In this thesis I explore the associations of 18 year olds’ described use of alcohol, risky sexual behavior and sexually transmitted diseases (STDs) with childhood exposure to caregiver substance abuse, violence and family circumstances METHODS: Data were obtained from the Longitudinal Studies of Childhood Abuse and Neglect (LONGSCAN) Assessments 0 - 18 from the National Data Archive on Child Abuse and Neglect (NDACAN). Variables on adverse childhood experiences, sex behaviors, STDs and substance use were observed in SAS. Multiple logistic regression models were used to identify odds ratios and strength of associations. RESULTS: Results suggests significant associations among participants who were exposed to parent/caregiver use of illicit drugs during participant’s childhood and subsequent self-reported heavy alcohol use 1.60 (95% CI: 1.18, 2.22), having early sexual initiation (at age 13 or younger) 1.60 (95% CI: 1.18, 2.22), having 6 or more sexual partners 1.36 (95% CI: 1.09, 1.68) and having STDs 1.83 (95% CI: 1.36, 2.46). Eighteen year olds with who were African American, were at a greater odds of having greater than 6 sexual partners, having sexual intercourse at or before age 13 and having (an) STD(s). No significant associations were found between having a parent/caregiver or member of household who was incarcerated, being exposed to violence, being exposed to yelling often or parental often use of alcohol and subsequent alcohol abuse, having greater than 6 sexual partners, having sexual intercourse at or before age 13 and having (an) STD(s) . DISCUSSION: Based on the findings of these analyses, programs for adolescents should focus time and resources on young children who may be currently experiencing, or at risk for experiencing, parental/ caregiver illicit drug use in the home.

The current pair of experimental studies sought to further validate the role of positive urgency (acting rashly when in an extreme positive emotional state) as a risk factor for impulsive and maladaptive behavior. Previous research has supported the use of emotion-based dispositions to rash action in predicting a wide range of maladaptive acts. However, that research relied on self-reported behavior, thus lacking (1) tight experimental controls and (2) direct observation of risky behaviors. In the two experimental studies described here, I found that, among college students, (1) previous cross-sectional relationships between risk and positive urgency were supported (n = 104), (2) positive urgency significantly predicted negative outcomes on a gambling task following a positive mood manipulation (n = 94), and (3) positive urgency significantly predicted increases in beer consumption following positive mood induction (n = 33). Positive urgency's role was above and beyond previously identified risk factors; these findings combined with prior cross-sectional and longitudinal field studies provide strong support for the role of positive urgency in rash action.

This work develops some simple models to study risky corporate debt using first passage-time approach. Analytical valuation expression derived from different models as functions of firm’s values and the short-term interest rate with time-dependent parameters governing the dynamics of the firm values and interest rate. We develop some numerical approximation of the analytical valuation, which is given implicitly through Voltera integral equation related to the density of the first-passage- time that a firm reaches some specified default barrier. For some appropriate default barrier arising from financial considerations we obtain a closed-form solution, which is more flexible for numerical calculation.