<div><div><div><p>The exponential growth of space debris poses a significant threat to humankind’s activities in orbit. It is thus worthwhile to investigate debris-generating events and uncover their causes, consequently informing debris-mitigation guidelines and safer spacecraft design. This work sets out to examine three fragmentation events pertaining to Centaur upper stages which have yet to be fully understood. Critical breakup characteristics such as breakup epoch, fragment velocities, and angular distributions for the Centaur events, as well as select historic fragmentation events are presented. Subsequently, hypotheses regarding the causes of the events are postulated. The Centaur fragmentations stray from breakup patterns exhibited by ’typical’ upper stage fragmentations such as those of the historic explosive Delta upper stage events. Only one of the three events, 2018-079B, appears to have fragmented due to the combustion of leftover propellant. 2009-047B, on the other hand, likely endured a structural failure – inferred from clustered fragments and low fragment spreading speeds. A torus-shaped fragment distribution is observed for the 2014-055B event, suggesting a collision with a small piece of debris may have taken place.</p></div></div></div>

The increasing reliance on space infrastructure and its rapid expansion necessitate the development and enhancement of tools for space debris and fragmentation research. Accurate prediction of the risks associated with satellite fragmentation requires comprehensive understanding of the dynamics involved. To address this need, the widely used NASA Standard Breakup Model (SBM) is employed in this thesis to predict fragment characteristics resulting from breakup events. Additionally, a novel method is introduced to determine the direction of these fragments, something not directly covered by the SBM. Furthermore, the principle of kinetic gas theory is applied to calculate the overall, long-term collision risk between debris and a predetermined satellite population. The results from this reveal the limitations of the SBM in accurately simulating fragmentations for certain satellite types. However, the newly implemented fragment directionality method aligns well with observed data, suggesting its potential for further research. Similarly, the risk model exhibits strong correspondence with ESA's MASTER, a model used for assessing collision risks with debris, with the deviations likely due to different impact velocity models used. Finally, the validated fragmentation and risk models are combined, and the combined model is used to analyse a real-world fragmentation event. / Det ökande beroendet av rymdinfrastruktur, samt dess snabba expansion kräver utveckling och förbättring av verktyg för forskning och analys kring rymdskräp och fragmentering. För att förstå risken förknippad med satellitfragmentationer så krävs förståelse för den involverade dynamiken. För att tillgodose detta används NASA:s Standard Breakup Model (SBM) i denna avhandling för att bestämma fragmentegenskaper som bildas från olika sorters fragmentationshändelser. Dessutom introduceras en ny metod för att bestämma riktningen för dessa fragment, något som inte direkt täcks av SBM. Dessutom tillämpas principen för kinetisk gasteori för att beräkna den totala, långsiktiga kollisionsrisken mellan rymdskrot och en förutbestämd satellitpopulation. Resultaten från detta avslöjar SBM:s begränsningar när det gäller att simulera fragmenten för vissa satellittyper. Hursomhelst så kan man se att den nyligen implementerade fragmentriktningsmetoden stämmer väl överens med den observerade datan, vilket tyder på dess potential för ytterligare forskning. På samma sätt uppvisar riskmodellen överensstämmelse med ESA:s MASTER, en modell som används för att bedöma kollisionsrisker med rymdskrot, där avvikelser sannolikt beror på att olika kollisionshastighetmodeller används. Slutligen kombineras de validerade fragmenterings- och riskmodellerna, som sedan används för att bidra med analyser till en riktig fragmentationshändelse.