An exploration of the creation and use of farmers' commonly used "rules of thumb" is required to conceptualize farmers' decision making processes. While farmers face complex situations, particularly when subsistence is an issue, they do appear to use simple rules in their decision making. To date inadequate attention has been given to understanding their reasoning processes in creating the rules, so this study traces the origins of farmers' beliefs, and extracts the decisive and dynamic elements in their decision making systems to provide this understanding. The analysis was structured by using a model based on the Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB). Modifications included recognizing a bargaining process (BP) and other decision stimuli to represent socio-cultural influences and sources of perception, respectively. Two analyses based on the Personal Construct Theory (PCT) and the Ethnographic Decision Tree Modelling (EDTM) were also applied to help elaborate the farmers' cognitive process and actual decision criteria. The method involved interviews in two villages in Lamongan Regency in East Java Province of Indonesia, where the farmers adopted an improved paddy-prawn system ("pandu"). The results highlighted that farmers use rational strategies, and that socio-cultural factors influence decision making. This was represented by interactions between the farmers' perceptions, their bargaining effort, and various background factors. The TPB model revealed that the farmers' perceptions about the potential of "pandu", and the interaction with their "significant others", influenced their intention to adopt "pandu". The farmers appeared to prefer a steady income and familiar practices at the same time as obtaining new information, mainly from their peers. When "pandu" failed to show sufficiently profitable results, most farmers decided to ignore or discontinue "pandu". This became the biggest disincentive to a wide and sustainable adoption. However, the PCT analysis showed that part of this problem also stemmed from the farmers' lack of resources and knowledge. The farmers' restrictive conditions also led them to seek socio-cultural and practical support for their actions. This was highlighted by a bargaining process (BP) that integrated what the farmers had learned, and believed, into their adoption behaviour. The BP also captured the farmers' communication strategies when dealing with "pandu" as its adoption affected resource allocation within the family and required cooperation with neighbours. The PCT and EDTM analyses also confirmed how the BP accommodated different sets of decision criteria to form different adoption behaviours. Such a process indicated the importance of considering the adoption decision and the relevant changes resulting from the farmers' cognition. This provided a more dynamic and realistic description of the farmers' decision-making process than has previously been attempted. Overall, the results suggested that semi-commercial farmers need to know, and confirm, that a new technology is significantly superior to the existing system, and can provide a secure income. The introduction of a new technology should use a participatory approach allowing negotiation, conflict mitigation and the creation of consensus among the relevant parties. This can be supported through better access to knowledge, information and financing. A specific and well-targeted policy intervention may also be needed to accommodate the diversity in the farmers' ways of learning and making decisions. Ways to improve the current analytical approaches are also suggested.

An exploration of the creation and use of farmers' commonly used "rules of thumb" is required to conceptualize farmers' decision making processes. While farmers face complex situations, particularly when subsistence is an issue, they do appear to use simple rules in their decision making. To date inadequate attention has been given to understanding their reasoning processes in creating the rules, so this study traces the origins of farmers' beliefs, and extracts the decisive and dynamic elements in their decision making systems to provide this understanding. The analysis was structured by using a model based on the Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB). Modifications included recognizing a bargaining process (BP) and other decision stimuli to represent socio-cultural influences and sources of perception, respectively. Two analyses based on the Personal Construct Theory (PCT) and the Ethnographic Decision Tree Modelling (EDTM) were also applied to help elaborate the farmers' cognitive process and actual decision criteria. The method involved interviews in two villages in Lamongan Regency in East Java Province of Indonesia, where the farmers adopted an improved paddy-prawn system ("pandu"). The results highlighted that farmers use rational strategies, and that socio-cultural factors influence decision making. This was represented by interactions between the farmers' perceptions, their bargaining effort, and various background factors. The TPB model revealed that the farmers' perceptions about the potential of "pandu", and the interaction with their "significant others", influenced their intention to adopt "pandu". The farmers appeared to prefer a steady income and familiar practices at the same time as obtaining new information, mainly from their peers. When "pandu" failed to show sufficiently profitable results, most farmers decided to ignore or discontinue "pandu". This became the biggest disincentive to a wide and sustainable adoption. However, the PCT analysis showed that part of this problem also stemmed from the farmers' lack of resources and knowledge. The farmers' restrictive conditions also led them to seek socio-cultural and practical support for their actions. This was highlighted by a bargaining process (BP) that integrated what the farmers had learned, and believed, into their adoption behaviour. The BP also captured the farmers' communication strategies when dealing with "pandu" as its adoption affected resource allocation within the family and required cooperation with neighbours. The PCT and EDTM analyses also confirmed how the BP accommodated different sets of decision criteria to form different adoption behaviours. Such a process indicated the importance of considering the adoption decision and the relevant changes resulting from the farmers' cognition. This provided a more dynamic and realistic description of the farmers' decision-making process than has previously been attempted. Overall, the results suggested that semi-commercial farmers need to know, and confirm, that a new technology is significantly superior to the existing system, and can provide a secure income. The introduction of a new technology should use a participatory approach allowing negotiation, conflict mitigation and the creation of consensus among the relevant parties. This can be supported through better access to knowledge, information and financing. A specific and well-targeted policy intervention may also be needed to accommodate the diversity in the farmers' ways of learning and making decisions. Ways to improve the current analytical approaches are also suggested.