Made available in DSpace on 2016-08-02T21:42:54Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Silvia.pdf: 252301 bytes, checksum: c50d0913571e9317abea773fc55db830 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2009-02-17 / This work shows that the cities Guarulhos and Sao Bernardo do Campo have tourist potential for business because there are industrial parks that allow the entry and stay of persons coming to the cities to carry out various types of business. Thus, they need to lodge, usually for a period of time where they intend to rest, feed themselves; bathe themselves as if they were in their homes. Beyond this potential, the cities have some more features in common as the location of airports, Cumbica and Congonhas, well ahead of its centers, and also serve as a transition to other cities considered more welcoming as Santos, Guaruja and others on the coast and São Paulo, the region known as the great Sao Paulo. So Guarulhos and São Bernardo end up being little used in relation to potential tourists. This study shows if to exist investments in that sector, tourism will can grow making them receptive cities to those that visit them because of work and in need of proper housing and often a place to use as your own office. With that, increases the need for qualified professionals to meet the expectations of tourists. Therefore it expands the labor market in the areas devoted to tourism and hospitality of the cities. Among them, there are Transport, Trade, Security, Food, Culture, Sports and Leisure, hotel chains and even Technical Schools and Colleges. To achieve what is proposed, it was used for primary data derived from personal interviews with some professionals linked to the sector, beyond the secondary data and information collected in the sites of the city, trade unions, means of lodging and other associations that are part of the literature it was possible to conclude that the two cities studied have tourist potential for business and may extend the labor market hotel from the awareness of stakeholders to invest in infrastructure, in training human resources, in the structure of the hotel business and the dissemination of the site, products and services offered.(AU) / O objetivo desse estudo é descobrir se as cidades de Guarulhos e São Bernardo do Campo têm chances de, ao explorar sua vocação turística para os negócios, obter reais possibilidades de ampliar seu mercado de trabalho na área de hotelaria. Para realizar o que se propôs, utilizou-se dos dados primários advindos das entrevistas pessoais com alguns profissionais ligados ao setor; além dos dados secundários e informações coletadas nos próprios sites das prefeituras, sindicatos, meios de hospedagem e outras associações que integrados à pesquisa bibliográfica verificou-se que as duas cidades possuem potencial turístico para os negócios porque contam com parques industriais que possibilitam a entrada e permanência de pessoas que vem às cidades para realizar diversos tipos de negócios. Para tanto, precisam hospedar-se, geralmente, por um espaço de tempo em que pretendem descansar, alimentar-se, banhar-se como se estivessem em suas casas. Além desse potencial, as cidades apresentam mais algumas características em comum como a localização de aeroportos, Cumbica e Congonhas, bem próximos de seus centros e, ainda, servem de passagem para outras cidades consideradas mais acolhedoras como Santos, Guarujá entre outras localizadas no litoral e São Paulo, na região conhecida como a grande São Paulo. Por isso Guarulhos e São Bernardo acabam sendo pouco aproveitadas no que se refere aos seus potenciais turísticos. A pesquisa aponta que se houver investimentos nesse setor, o turismo poderá crescer tornando-as cidades receptivas àqueles que as visitam por motivo de trabalho e que precisam de uma boa hospedagem e, muitas vezes, de um lugar para utilizar como seu próprio escritório. Com isso, aumenta-se a necessidade de profissionais qualificados para atender às expectativas desses turistas. Conseqüentemente amplia-se o mercado de trabalho nas áreas voltadas ao turismo e hotelaria das cidades. Entre elas, destacam-se Transportes, Comércio, Segurança, Gastronomia, Cultura, Esportes e Lazer, Redes Hoteleiras e até mesmo Escolas Técnicas e Faculdades. Identificou-se que as duas cidades estudadas possuem potencial turístico para os negócios e podem ampliar o mercado de trabalho hoteleiro a partir da conscientização das partes interessadas em investirem na infra-estrutura, na capacitação dos Recursos Humanos, na estrutura dos empreendimentos hoteleiros e na divulgação do local, dos produtos e dos serviços oferecidos.(AU)

Le but de cette thèse est de développer des outils statistiques permettant d'initialiser et de calibrer les modèles de microsimulation dynamique stochastique, en partant de l’exemple du modèle SimVillages (développé dans le cadre du projet Européen PRIMA). Ce modèle couple des dynamiques démographiques et économiques appliquées à une population de municipalités rurales. Chaque individu de la population, représenté explicitement dans un ménage au sein d’une commune, travaille éventuellement dans une autre, et possède sa propre trajectoire de vie. Ainsi, le modèle inclut-il des dynamiques de choix de vie, d’étude, de carrière, d’union, de naissance, de divorce, de migration et de décès. Nous avons développé, implémenté et testé les modèles et méthodes suivants : 1 / un modèle permettant de générer une population synthétique à partir de données agrégées, où chaque individu est membre d’un ménage, vit dans une commune et possède un statut au regard de l’emploi. Cette population synthétique est l’état initial du modèle. 2 / un modèle permettant de simuler une table d’origine-destination des déplacements domicile-travail à partir de données agrégées. 3 / un modèle permettant d’estimer le nombre d’emplois dans les services de proximité dans une commune donnée en fonction de son nombre d’habitants et de son voisinage en termes de service. 4 / une méthode de calibration des paramètres inconnus du modèle SimVillages de manière à satisfaire un ensemble de critères d'erreurs définis sur des sources de données hétérogènes. Cette méthode est fondée sur un nouvel algorithme d’échantillonnage séquentiel de type Approximate Bayesian Computation. / The purpose of this thesis is to develop statistical tools to initialize and to calibrate dynamic stochastic microsimulation models, starting from their application to the SimVillages model (developed within the European PRIMA project). This model includes demographic and economic dynamics applied to the population of a set of rural municipalities. Each individual, represented explicitly in a household living in a municipality, possibly working in another, has its own life trajectory. Thus, model includes rules for the choice of study, career, marriage, birth children, divorce, migration, and death. We developed, implemented and tested the following models : • a model to generate a synthetic population from aggregate data, where each individual lives in a household in a municipality and has a status with regard to employment. The synthetic population is the initial state of the model. • a model to simulate a table of origin-destination commuting from aggregate data in order to assign a place of work for each individual working outside his municipality of residence. • a sub-model to estimate the number of jobs in local services in a given municipality in terms of its number of inhabitants and its neighbors in terms of service. • a method to calibrate the unknown SimVillages model parameters in order to satisfy a set of criteria. This method is based on a new Approximate Bayesian Computation algorithm using importance sampling. When applied to a toy example and to the SimVillages model, our algorithm is 2 to 8 times faster than the three main sequential ABC algorithms currently available.