Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior / The El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a large-scale phenomenon that impacts weather and climate worldwide, including Southern and Northeast Brazil. Soil water is a major factor that affects interannual crop production in Rio Grande do Sul State. Other factor that may affect crop yield is the possible climate change. Human activities have been blamed to increase the CO2 concentration of the Earth s Atmosphere. Earth temperature may increase in response to increasing CO2 concentration. The Impact of the projected climate change on soil water and agroecossystems yield is an important and relevant issue both from a scientific and political viewpoint. The objective of this study was to simulate wheat, maize and soybean yields, and the fraction of transpirable soil water (FTSW) and link its interannual variability to ENSO and under climate change scenarios at Santa Maria, RS. Soil water and crop yield were simulated with models available in the literature. Air temperature and rainfall were modified to create climate change scenarios. The results showed that neutral years are the years of the largest risk to production of wheat, maize and soybean. During La Niña years the trend of water deficit is not clear and El Niño years are associated with years with greater FTSW. The increase in temperature, expected to decreases wheat and maize yields more than soybean yield. / O El Niño Oscilação Sul (ENOS) é um fenômeno de grande escala que afeta o tempo e o clima em diversos locais do Globo Terrestre, incluindo o Brasil, especialmente as regiões Sul e Nordeste brasileiro. A água disponível no solo para os cultivos é um importante fator de variabilidade interanual da produção agrícola no Estado do Rio Grande do Sul. Outro fator que poderá influenciar o rendimento das culturas é a possível mudança climática. A concentração de CO2 da atmosfera terrestre está aumentando devido às atividades humanas, assim, a temperatura média do ar do Planeta poderá aumentar nos próximos anos devido ao efeito estufa do CO2 atmosférico. O impacto de uma possível mudança climática sobre a água disponível e o rendimento em agroecossistemas é um assunto de interesse científico e político. O objetivo deste estudo foi simular a fração de água disponível no solo e sua conseqüência sobre o rendimento de trigo, milho e soja, associando sua variabilidade interanual com o fenômeno ENOS e, em diferentes cenários climáticos para Santa Maria, RS. Para a simulação foi utilizado o cenário meteorológico atual (1969-2003) e, criados cenários de mudança climática com diferentes aumentos de temperatura do ar com e sem aumento de precipitação pluviométrica para os próximos 100 anos. Os resultados mostraram que anos neutros constituem anos de maior risco para as culturas do trigo, milho e soja. Para anos de La Niña a tendência de défice hídrico não foi tão clara. Anos de El Niño, normalmente, estão associados a maior disponibilidade hídrica para as plantas. Se o aquecimento global se confirmar, espera-se que o rendimento de grãos de trigo e milho seja mais afetado do que a soja.

Dans un contexte de changement global, prédire l’évolution de la productivité de la végétation dans le sud-ouest (SO) Sibérien reste un défi du fait d’incertitudes fortes sur les processus régulant la disponibilité en eau et en nutriments. Nous avons mis en évidence des relations entre cycles biogéochimiques, climat et propriétés du sol sur six sites contrastés.La croissance radiale des tiges de peuplier est principalement sensible au bilan hydrique du sol en forêt de steppe, au sud du SO Sibérien, alors qu’elle est stimulée par de hautes températures estivales en sub-taïga, dans le nord de la région.Des mesures de terrain et des simulations du bilan hydrique du sol ont montré que la fonte des neiges est importante pour la recharge des réserves hydriques du sol au sud. Au nord, ces réserves sont souvent rechargées en automne. La fonte des neiges est alors associée à du drainage. De plus, au nord, une épaisse couverture de neige protège le sol du gel en hiver. La distribution des racines fines est plus profonde en forêt de steppe qu’en sub-taïga, impactée par le déficit hydrique et le gel.L’homogénéité du statut en phosphore (P) des sols dans le SO Sibérien montre qu’il n’est pas encore très impacté par la pédogénèse. Les stocks en P élevés, notammen tles formes disponibles pour les plantes, suggèrent que le P n’est pas et ne sera pas limitant dans le futur.La décomposition des litières aériennes et la libération de l’azote (N) sont plus rapides en sub-taïga qu’en forêt de steppe. Un fort drainage pourrait expliquer un transfert profond du N dans les sols en sub-taïga. Cependant ces sols semblent efficaces pour retenir le N, limitant les pertes pour le système sol–plante. / Predicting the evolution of vegetation productivity in SW Siberia in the contextof global change remains a challenge because of major uncertainties concerningthe biogeochemical cycling and the plant-availability of water and nutrients. Weprovided insights on their relation to climate and soil properties, investigating sixcontrasting sites.Aspen stem radial growth is mainly sensitive to soil water budget in the foreststeppezone established in the south of SW Siberia while it is enhanced by highsummer temperatures in the sub-taiga, in the north of the region.Field measurements and water budget simulations revealed that snow-melt isimportant re-filling soil water reserves in the south. In the north, these reservesare mostly re-filled in autumn and snow-melt is associated with drainage. A thicksnow-pack also prevents soil from freezing in winter in the sub-taiga. Water deficitand soil freezing largely impact the distribution of fine roots within the soil profilewhich is deeper in forest-steppe than in sub-taiga.The homogeneous soil phosphorus (P) status in the region investigated revealedthis nutrient has not been yet very impacted by contrasting soil processes. High Pstocks, and in particular plant-available forms, suggest P is unlikely to be limitingunder current and future conditions.By contrast, we found differences in nitrogen (N) status. Above-ground litterdecay and the release of N occurs faster in sub-taiga than in forest-steppe. Higherdrainage may explain deeper N transfer in sub-taiga soils. However, sub-taiga soilsalso seem to be efficient in retaining N, limiting losses from the soil–plant system.