Recent large earthquakes put in evidence the need of improving and developing robust and rapid procedures to properly calculate the magnitude of an earthquake in a short time after its occurrence. The most famous example is the 26 December 2004 Sumatra earthquake, when the limitations of the standard procedures adopted at that time by many agencies failed to provide accurate magnitude estimates of this exceptional event in time to launch early enough warnings and appropriate response. Being related to the radiated seismic energy ES, the energy magnitude ME is a good estimator of the high frequency content radiated by the source which goes into the seismic waves. However, a procedure to rapidly determine ME (that is to say, within 15 minutes after the earthquake occurrence) was required. Here it is presented a procedure able to provide in a rapid way the energy magnitude ME for shallow earthquakes by analyzing teleseismic P‑waves in the distance range 20-98. To account for the energy loss experienced by the seismic waves from the source to the receivers, spectral amplitude decay functions obtained from numerical simulations of Greens functions based on the average global model AK135Q are used. The proposed method has been tested using a large global dataset (~1000 earthquakes) and the obtained rapid ME estimations have been compared to other magnitude scales from different agencies. Special emphasis is given to the comparison with the moment magnitude MW, since the latter is very popular and extensively used in common seismological practice. However, it is shown that MW alone provide only limited information about the seismic source properties, and that disaster management organizations would benefit from a combined use of MW and ME in the prompt evaluation of an earthquake’s tsunami and shaking potential. In addition, since the proposed approach for ME is intended to work without knowledge of the fault plane geometry (often available only hours after an earthquake occurrence), the suitability of this method is discussed by grouping the analyzed earthquakes according to their type of mechanism (strike-slip, normal faulting, thrust faulting, etc.). No clear trend is found from the rapid ME estimates with the different fault plane solution groups. This is not the case for the ME routinely determined by the U.S. Geological Survey, which uses specific radiation pattern corrections. Further studies are needed to verify the effect of such corrections on ME estimates. Finally, exploiting the redundancy of the information provided by the analyzed dataset, the components of variance on the single station ME estimates are investigated. The largest component of variance is due to the intra-station (record-to-record) error, although the inter-station (station-to-station) error is not negligible and is of several magnitude units for some stations. Moreover, it is shown that the intra-station component of error is not random but depends on the travel path from a source area to a given station. Consequently, empirical corrections may be used to account for the heterogeneities of the real Earth not considered in the theoretical calculations of the spectral amplitude decay functions used to correct the recorded data for the propagation effects. / Starke Erdbeben in letzter Zeit zeigten deutlich den steigenden Bedarf nach einer Verbesserung und Entwicklung von stabilen und schnellen Methoden, um die Magnitude eines Erdbebens korrekt innerhalb kürzester Zeit nach dessen Auftreten zu ermitteln. Das bisher bekannteste Fallbeispiel in diesem Zusammenhang stellt das Sumatra-Erdbeben vom 26 Dezember 2004 dar. Dieses außergewöhnliche Ereignis zeigte deutlich die Grenzen der bisher gängigen und von den meisten Behörden zu dieser Zeit verwendeten Methoden zur Ermittlung der Erdbebenmagnitude. So konnte für dieses Beben mit den gängigen Ansätzen zeitnah die Magnitude nicht korrekt bestimmt werden / um eine angemessene Frühwarnung und entsprechende Gegenmaßnahmen einzuleiten. Die Energiemagnitude ME steht in direkter Verbindung mit der abgestrahlten seismischen Energie ES und stellt somit eine guten Abschätzung für den Hochfrequenzanteil dar, der von der Quelle ausgestrahlt wird und in die seismischen Wellen einfließt. Eine Methode, welche eine schnelle Ermittlung von ME ermöglicht (d.h. innerhalb von maximal 15 Minuten nach dem Erdbeben) wäre in diesem Falle benötigt worden. Im Rahmen dieser Arbeit wird eine Methode vorgestellt, die eine solche schnelle Ermittlung der Energiemagnitude ME für oberflächennahe Erdbeben ermöglicht, indem teleseismische P-Wellen im Bereich von 20°-98° analysiert werden. Um den Energieverlust der seismischen Wellen von deren Quelle bis zu den Empfängern angemessen zu berücksichtigen, werden spektrale Amplituden-Abnahmefunktionen verwendet, welche aus numerischen Simulationen von Greenschen Funktionen basierend auf dem durchschnittlichen globalen Modell AK135Q abgeleitet werden. Die vorgestellte Methode wurde mit einem umfangreichen globalen Datensatz (ca. 1000 Erdbeben) getestet, und die zeitnah ermittelten ME-Abschätzungen wurden mit anderen Magnitudenskalen verschiedener Behörden verglichen. Ein Vergleich mit der Momentenmagnitude MW war hierbei von besonderem Interesse, da diese Skala heutzutage weitverbreitet ist und häufig zum Einsatz kommt. Es zeigt sich jedoch, dass MW alleine nur begrenzte Informationen über die seismischen Herdeigenschaften liefern kann, und dass Organisationen des Katastrophenmagements von einer kombinierten Nutzung von MW und ME gerade hinsichtlich der unmittelbaren Evaluierung des tsunamigenen Potentials und der Erschütterungswirkung eines Erdbebens profitieren könnten. Die verwendete Methode zur Ermittlung von ME kommt ohne Wissen über die geometrischen Eigenschaften der Verwerfungszone aus (diese sind meist erst Stunden nach einem Erbeben verfügbar). Entsprechend wird die Eignung dieser Methode durch Eingruppierungen der analysierten Erdbeben nach ihrem Wirkungsmechanismus (Scherbruch, Abschiebung, Aufschiebung, etc.) diskutiert. Für die schnelle Abschätzung von ME ist kein klarer Trend unter Verwendung der verschiedenen Herdflächenlösungen erkennbar. Für ME-Werte, welche standardmäßig vom U.S. Geological Survey mit speziellen Korrekturwerten für die Abstrahlungscharakteristika ermittelt werden, trifft dies jedoch nicht zu. Weitere Untersuchungen sind nötig, um die Auswirkungen solcher Korrekturen auf die ME-Abschätzungen zu verifizieren. Indem die Redundanz der Informationen des analysierten Datensatzes ausgenutzt wurde, konnte die Varianz bei den Einzelstations-ME-Abschätzungen untersucht werden. Die größte Abweichung zeigt sich aufgrund von Intra-Stations-Fehlern (record-to-record), wenngleich auch der Inter-Stations-Fehler (station-to-station) nicht vernachlässigbar ist; so nimmt er für einige Stationen mehrere Magnitudeneinheiten an. Des Weiteren konnte gezeigt werden, dass der Intra-Stations-Anteil des Gesamtfehlers nicht zufällig ist, sondern abhängig vom Wellenweg von einem Quellgebiet zu einer bestimmten Station. Folglich können empirische Korrekturen dazu benutzt werden, den Heterogenitäten der realen Erde gerecht zu werden, welche heutzutage nicht in den theoretischen Kalkulationen der spektralen Amplituden-Abnahmefunktionen zur Korrektur der aufgezeichneten Daten verwendet werden.

Title: Source Parameters of Microearthquakes and their Uncertainty Author: Jan Michálek Department: Department of Geophysics Supervisor: Doc. RNDr. Tomáš Fischer, PhD., Institute of Hydrogeology, Engineering Geology and Applied Geophysics, Charles University in Prague Abstract: The aim of this thesis is to analyze the spectral methods used for the determination of the earth- quake source parameters like the seismic moment M0 and the corner frequency fc and to apply these meth- ods to seismic data from the West Bohemian region. Considering some assumptions about the source the other important parameters like the source radius r or the stress drop in the source ∆σ can be evaluated. Determination of the parameters is performed in the spectral domain by comparing a simple Brune's source model (non-causal slip on a circular rupture; spectral slope ω−2) with the displacement of the P or S wave. The methods were applied to 56 selected earthquakes of the West Bohemian swarms from 2000 and 2008 by the absolute and relative approach in several modifications. The absolute method allows to determine not only the source parameters but also the quality factor Q (attenuation), which significantly affects the deter- mination of fc. Therefore, the absolute method was applied also as the joint inversion when Q is stabilized....

Spatial clustering of seismic events in mines has been widely reported in literature. Despite obvious visual correlations between spatial clusters of seismic events and geomechanical structures in mines (such as pillars, dykes and faults), very limited research has been undertaken to utilise this information to filter seismic data. A linkage between spatial seismic event clusters and discrete rockmass failure mechanisms is tenuous and not well established using current seismic analysis techniques. A seismic event clustering methodology is proposed. The first component of the methodology uses a complete-linkage (CLINK) clustering routine to identify relatively compact clusters of seismic events. The CLINK clusters are then subjected to a singlelink clustering process, which uses spatial location and seismic source parameters as similarity measures. The resultant

Les panaches volcaniques de téphras constituent un des aléas volcaniques majeurs. Pour prévoir leur dispersion et les zones d'impacts de leurs retombées, des modèles numériques sont utilisés en opérationnel et basés sur des paramètres éruptifs, regroupés sous la notion de terme source, caractérisant l'émission des panaches. L'ensemble du terme source est cependant difficile à mesurer en temps réel. C'est pourquoi les modèles de dispersion sont souvent basés sur des scénarios d'éruptions passées et utilisent des lois empiriques reliant la hauteur des panaches avec les flux massiques à la source. Cependant, les résultats qui découlent de ces modèles sont peu contraints, moyennés sur la durée des éruptions, et souffrent de larges incertitudes. Dans cette optique, les radars Doppler, capables de sonder l'intérieur des colonnes éruptives avec des échelles spatio-temporelles fines, peuvent fournir des contraintes cruciales sur le terme source des panaches en temps réel. Ce travail de thèse traite des applications de radars volcanologiques dédiés, potentiellement transposables aux radars météorologiques communément utilisés, afin de fournir des paramètres éruptifs à la source des panaches de téphras en surveillance opérationnelle mais également pour contraindre la dynamique des colonnes éruptives et les charges internes des panaches et de leurs retombées. Une campagne de mesures au volcan Stromboli a permis de montrer les capacités d'un couplage innovant entre un disdromètre optique (Parsivel2) avec un nouveau radar Doppler à onde millimétrique (Mini-BASTA). Grâce à l'excellente résolution spatio-temporelle de Mini-BASTA (12,5 m et 1 s), des figures intermittentes de sédimentation ont été observées dans les retombées de panaches transitoires dilués. Observées également au disdromètre mesurant la vitesse et la taille des retombées, ces figures ont été reproduites en laboratoire grâce à un modèle analogique. Un modèle conceptuel de formation de thermiques de sédimentation inversés est proposé pour expliquer ces figures et implique que les processus menant à une sédimentation irrégulière typique des panaches soutenus et concentrés peuvent s'appliquer à des panaches dilués, y compris ceux issus d'éruptions Stromboliennes normales en régime transitoire. Ensuite, une caractérisation physique d'un grand nombre de particules de cendres échantillonnées à Stromboli a permis de valider les mesures de tailles et de vitesses terminales de chutes par disdromètre sur le terrain et en laboratoire, justifiant par ailleurs son utilisation opérationnelle. A partir de ces contraintes, une loi reliant les concentrations de cendres avec les facteurs de réflectivité calculés a pu être comparée aux mesures radar in situ. Les concentrations internes modale et maximale des panaches de Stromboli sont respectivement autour de 1 × 10-5 kg m-3 et 7,45 × 10-4 kg m-3, largement supérieures au seuil fixé pour la sécurité aérienne. Les concentrations en cendres des retombées s’étalent entre 1,87 × 10-8 - 2,42 × 10-6 kg m-3 avec un mode vers 4 × 10-7 kg m-3.Finalement, ce travail de thèse montre les applications opérationnelles du radar UHF VOLDORAD 2B dans le cadre de la surveillance de l'activité de l'Etna. Une méthodologie, applicable à tout radar Doppler, a été développée pour obtenir des flux de masse de téphras en temps réel à partir d’un proxy de masse, uniquement basé sur les vitesses d'éjection et puissances mesurées, calibré avec un modèle de colonne tenant compte de l'influence du vent sur les panaches. La gamme de flux trouvée pour 47 paroxysmes entre 2011 et 2015 s’étend de 2.96 × 104 à 3.26 × 106 kg s-1. A partir d’un autre modèle de colonne éruptive, Plume-MoM, les flux radar ont permis de modéliser des hauteurs des panaches de téphras émis lors de quatre paroxysmes de l'Etna cohérentes avec les observations faites en temps réel par imagerie visible et par radar en bande-X. (...) / Volcanic tephra plumes are one of the major volcanic hazards. To forecast their dispersion and the impact zones of their fallout, the numerical models used in operational monitoring are based on eruptive parameters, called the source term, characterizing the plume emission. Source term parameters are challenging to measure in real time. This is why dispersion models are often based on past eruptive scenarios and use empirical laws that relate plume heights to source mass fluxes. However, the model outputs are not well constrained, averaged over the eruption duration, and suffer from large uncertainties. In this topic, Doppler radars are capable of probing the interior of eruptive columns and plumes at high space-time resolution and can provide crucial constraints on the source term in real time. This thesis deals with applications in operational monitoring of dedicated volcanological radars, potentially transposable to most common meteorological radars, to provide eruptive parameters at the source of tephra plumes but also to constrain the dynamics and internal mass load of eruptive columns, volcanic plumes and their fallout.A measurement campaign at Stromboli volcano has shown the capabilities of an innovative coupling between an optical disdrometer (Parsivel2) and a new 3-mm wave Doppler radar (Mini-BASTA). Owing to its high spatio-temporal resolution (12.5 m and 1 s), intermittent sedimentation patterns were observed in the fallout of dilute transient plumes typical of normal strombolian activity. These features, also recorded with the disdrometer, measuring the particle settling speeds and sizes, were reproduced in the laboratory using an analog model. A conceptual model for the formation of reversed sedimentation thermals is proposed to explain these features. It implies that processes leading to irregular sedimentation typical of sustained concentrated strong plumes can be applied to dilute weak plumes, including those formed by normal transient Strombolian activity. Then, a physical characterization of a large number of ash particles sampled at Stromboli allowed the validation of particle size and terminal velocity measurements by the disdrometer in the field and in the laboratory, arguing in favor of its operational use. Then, a physical characterization of a large number of ash particles sampled at Stromboli allowed to validate the measurements of size and terminal velocity of falls by disdrometer in the field and in laboratory, justifying also its operational use. From these constraints, a law relating ash concentrations with calculated reflectivity factors was found and compared to in situ radar measurements inside ash plumes and fallout. The modal and maximum internal concentrations of Strombolian plumes are at about 1 × 10-5 kg m-3 and 7.5 × 10-4 kg m-3 respectively, well above the threshold for aviation safety. Ash concentrations in the fallout range from 1.9× 10-8 to 2.4 × 10-6 kg m-3 with a mode at about 4 × 10-7 kg m-3.Finally, this thesis work shows operational applications of the UHF VOLDORAD 2B radar for the monitoring of explosive activity at Etna. A methodology, applicable to any Doppler radar, has been developed to obtain tephra mass eruption rates in real time from a mass proxy, based only on measured ejection velocities and power, and calibrated with an eruptive column model taking crosswinds into account. Tephra mass fluxes found for 47 paroxysms between 2011 and 2015 range from 3 × 104 to over 3 × 106 kg s-1. Then, tephra plumes heights of four Etna paroxysms were simulated using the eruptive column model Plume-MoM from the radar-derived mass eruption rates and were found consistent with real-time observations made by visible imagery and by X-band radar. This last part demonstrates the capabilities of VOLDORAD 2B to provide quantitative input parameters for dispersion models in the case of future Etna paroxysms. (...)

This thesis explores, through a number of production andperception studies, the nature of the voice source signal andhow it varies in spoken communication. Research is alsopresented that deals with the techniques and methodologies foranalysing and synthesising the voice source. The main analytictechnique involves interactive inverse filtering for obtainingthe source signal, which is then parameterised to permit thequantification of source characteristics. The parameterisationis carried by means of model matching, using the four-parameterLF model of differentiated glottal flow. The first three analytic studies focus on segmental andsuprasegmental determinants of source variation. As part of theprosodic variation of utterances, focal stress shows for theglottal excitation an enhancement between the stressed voweland the surrounding consonants. At a segmental level, the voicesource characteristics of a vowel show potentially majordifferences as a function of the voiced/voiceless nature of anadjacent stop. Cross-language differences in the extent anddirectionality of the observed effects suggest differentunderlying control strategies in terms of the timing of thelaryngeal and supralaryngeal gestures, as well as in thelaryngeal tensions settings. Different classes of voicedconsonants also show differences in source characteristics:here the differences are likely to be passive consequences ofthe aerodynamic conditions that are inherent to the consonants.Two further analytic studies present voice source correlatesfor six different voice qualities as defined by Laver'sclassification system. Data from stressed and unstressedcontexts clearly show that the transformation from one voicequality to another does not simply involve global changes ofthe source parameters. As well as providing insights into theseaspects of speech production, the analytic studies providequantitative measures useful in technology applications,particularly in speech synthesis. The perceptual experiments use the LF source implementationin the KLSYN88 synthesiser to test some of the analytic resultsand to harness them to explore the paralinguistic dimension ofspeech communication. A study of the perceptual salience ofdifferent parameters associated with breathy voice indicatesthat the source spectral slope is critically important andthat, surprisingly, aspiration noise contributes relativelylittle. Further perceptual tests using stimuli with differentvoice qualities explore the mapping between voice quality andits paralinguistic function of expressing emotion, mood andattitude. The results of these studies highlight the crucialrole of voice quality in expressing affect as well as providingpointers to how it combines withf0for this purpose. The last section of the thesis focuses on the techniquesused for the analysis and synthesis of the source. Asemi-automatic method for inverse filtering is presented, whichis novel in that it optimises the inverse filter by exploitingthe knowledge that is typically used by the experimenter whencarrying out manual interactive inverse filtering. A furtherstudy looks at the properties of the modified LF model in theKLSYN88 synthesiser: it highlights how it differs from thestandard LF model and discusses the implications forsynthesising the glottal source signal from LF model data.Effective and robust source parameterisation for the analysisof voice quality is the topic of the final paper: theeffectiveness of global, amplitude-based, source parameters isexamined across speech tokens with large differences inf0. Additional amplitude-based parameters areproposed to enable a more detailed characterisation of theglottal pulse. <b>Keywords:</b>Voice source dynamics, glottal sourceparameters, source-filter interaction, voice quality,phonation, perception, affect, emotion, mood, attitude,paralinguistic, inverse filtering, knowledge-based, formantsynthesis, LF model, fundamental frequency,f0.

<p>This thesis explores, through a number of production andperception studies, the nature of the voice source signal andhow it varies in spoken communication. Research is alsopresented that deals with the techniques and methodologies foranalysing and synthesising the voice source. The main analytictechnique involves interactive inverse filtering for obtainingthe source signal, which is then parameterised to permit thequantification of source characteristics. The parameterisationis carried by means of model matching, using the four-parameterLF model of differentiated glottal flow.</p><p>The first three analytic studies focus on segmental andsuprasegmental determinants of source variation. As part of theprosodic variation of utterances, focal stress shows for theglottal excitation an enhancement between the stressed voweland the surrounding consonants. At a segmental level, the voicesource characteristics of a vowel show potentially majordifferences as a function of the voiced/voiceless nature of anadjacent stop. Cross-language differences in the extent anddirectionality of the observed effects suggest differentunderlying control strategies in terms of the timing of thelaryngeal and supralaryngeal gestures, as well as in thelaryngeal tensions settings. Different classes of voicedconsonants also show differences in source characteristics:here the differences are likely to be passive consequences ofthe aerodynamic conditions that are inherent to the consonants.Two further analytic studies present voice source correlatesfor six different voice qualities as defined by Laver'sclassification system. Data from stressed and unstressedcontexts clearly show that the transformation from one voicequality to another does not simply involve global changes ofthe source parameters. As well as providing insights into theseaspects of speech production, the analytic studies providequantitative measures useful in technology applications,particularly in speech synthesis.</p><p>The perceptual experiments use the LF source implementationin the KLSYN88 synthesiser to test some of the analytic resultsand to harness them to explore the paralinguistic dimension ofspeech communication. A study of the perceptual salience ofdifferent parameters associated with breathy voice indicatesthat the source spectral slope is critically important andthat, surprisingly, aspiration noise contributes relativelylittle. Further perceptual tests using stimuli with differentvoice qualities explore the mapping between voice quality andits paralinguistic function of expressing emotion, mood andattitude. The results of these studies highlight the crucialrole of voice quality in expressing affect as well as providingpointers to how it combines with<i>f</i>₀for this purpose.</p><p>The last section of the thesis focuses on the techniquesused for the analysis and synthesis of the source. Asemi-automatic method for inverse filtering is presented, whichis novel in that it optimises the inverse filter by exploitingthe knowledge that is typically used by the experimenter whencarrying out manual interactive inverse filtering. A furtherstudy looks at the properties of the modified LF model in theKLSYN88 synthesiser: it highlights how it differs from thestandard LF model and discusses the implications forsynthesising the glottal source signal from LF model data.Effective and robust source parameterisation for the analysisof voice quality is the topic of the final paper: theeffectiveness of global, amplitude-based, source parameters isexamined across speech tokens with large differences in<i>f</i>₀. Additional amplitude-based parameters areproposed to enable a more detailed characterisation of theglottal pulse.</p><p><b>Keywords:</b>Voice source dynamics, glottal sourceparameters, source-filter interaction, voice quality,phonation, perception, affect, emotion, mood, attitude,paralinguistic, inverse filtering, knowledge-based, formantsynthesis, LF model, fundamental frequency,<i>f</i>₀.</p>

This thesis deals with smooth discretization schemes and inverse problems, the former used in efficient yet accurate numerical solutions to forward models required in turn to solve inverse problems. The aims of the thesis include, (i) development of a stabilization techniques for a class of forward problems plagued by unphysical oscillations in the response due to the presence of jumps/shocks/high gradients, (ii) development of a smooth hybrid discretization scheme that combines certain useful features of Finite Element (FE) and Mesh-Free (MF) methods and alleviates certain destabilizing factors encountered in the construction of shape functions using the polynomial reproduction method and, (iii) a first of its kind attempt at the joint inversion of both static and dynamic source parameters of the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake using tsunami sea level anomaly data. Following the introduction in Chapter 1 that motivates and puts in perspective the work done in later chapters, the main body of the thesis may be viewed as having two parts, viz., the first part constituting the development and use of smooth discretization schemes in the possible presence of destabilizing factors (Chapters 2 and 3) and the second part involving solution to the inverse problem of tsunami source recovery (Chapter 4). In the context of stability requirements in numerical solutions of practical forward problems, Chapter 2 develops a new stabilization scheme. It is based on a stochastic representation of the discretized field variables, with a view to reduce or even eliminate unphysical oscillations in the MF numerical simulations of systems developing shocks or exhibiting localized bands of extreme plastic deformation in the response. The origin of the stabilization scheme may be traced to nonlinear stochastic filtering and, consistent with a class of such filters, gain-based additive correction terms are applied to the simulated solution of the system, herein achieved through the Element-Free Galerkin (EFG) method, in order to impose a set of constraints that help arresting the spurious oscillations. The method is numerically illustrated through its application to a gradient plasticity model whose response is often characterized by a developing shear band as the external load is gradually increased. The potential of the method in stabilized yet accurate numerical simulations of such systems involving extreme gradient variations in the response is thus brought forth. Chapter 3 develops the MF-based discretization motif by balancing this with the widespread adoption of the FE method. Thus it concentrates on developing a 'hybrid' scheme that aims at the amelioration of certain destabilizing algorithmic issues arising from the necessary condition of moment matrix invertibility en route to the generation of smooth shape functions. It sets forth the hybrid discretization scheme utilizing bivariate simplex splines as kernels in a polynomial reproducing approach adopted over a conventional FE-like domain discretization based on Delaunay triangulation. Careful construction of the simplex spline knotset ensures the success of the polynomial reproduction procedure at all points in the domain of interest, a significant advancement over its precursor, the DMS-FEM. The shape functions in the proposed method inherit the global continuity ( C p 1 ) and local supports of the simplex splines of degree p . In the proposed scheme, the triangles comprising the domain discretization also serve as background cells for numerical integration which here are near-aligned to the supports of the shape functions (and their intersections), thus considerably ameliorating an oft-cited source of inaccuracy in the numerical integration of MF-based weak forms. Numerical experiments establish that the proposed method can work with lower order quadrature rules for accurate evaluation of integrals in the Galerkin weak form, a feature desiderated in solving nonlinear inverse problems that demand cost-effective solvers for the forward models. Numerical demonstrations of optimal convergence rates for a few test cases are given and the hybrid method is also implemented to compute crack-tip fields in a gradient-enhanced elasticity model. Chapter 4 attempts at the joint inversion of earthquake source parameters for the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman event from the tsunami sea level anomaly signals available from satellite altimetry. Usual inversion for earthquake source parameters incorporates subjective elements, e.g. a priori constraints, posing and parameterization, trial-and-error waveform fitting etc. Noisy and possibly insufficient data leads to stability and non-uniqueness issues in common deterministic inversions. A rational accounting of both issues favours a stochastic framework which is employed here, leading naturally to a quantification of the commonly overlooked aspects of uncertainty in the solution. Confluence of some features endows the satellite altimetry for the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman tsunami event with unprecedented value for the inversion of source parameters for the entire rupture duration. A nonlinear joint inversion of the slips, rupture velocities and rise times with minimal a priori constraints is undertaken. Large and hitherto unreported variances in the parameters despite a persistently good waveform fit suggest large propagation of uncertainties and hence the pressing need for better physical models to account for the defect dynamics and massive sediment piles. Chapter 5 concludes the work with pertinent comments on the results obtained and suggestions for future exploration of some of the schemes developed here.

As hard rock mining progresses into higher stress mining conditions through either late stage extraction or mining at depth, the rock mass is driven not just to the peak strength, but often well into the post-peak until complete ‘failure’ occurs and easier mining conditions become evident. Limited research has been accomplished in identifying the transition of the rock mass and its behaviour into the post-peak and this research investigates this behaviour in detail. As the rock mass progressively fails, fractures are initiated through intact rock and extension and shear failure of these and pre-existing features occurs. Associated with this failure are microseismic events, which can be used to give an indication of the strength state of the rock mass. Based on an analogy to laboratory testing of intact rock and measurement of acoustic emissions, the microseismicity can be used to identify, fracture initiation, coalescence of fractures (yield), localization (peak-strength), accumulation of damage (post-peak) and ultimate failure (residual strength) leading to aseismic behaviour. The case studies presented in this thesis provide an opportunity to examine and analyse rock mass failure into the post-peak, through the regional and confined failures at the Williams and the Golden Giant mines, both in the Hemlo camp in Northern Ontario, Canada. At the Williams mine, the progressive failure of a sill pillar region into the post-peak was analysed; relating the seismic event density, combined with numerical modelling and a spatial and temporal examination of the principal components analysis (PCA), to characterize the extent, trend and state of the yielding zone, which formed a macrofracture shear structure. Observations of conventional displacement instrumentation, indicates regional dilation or shear of the rock mass occurs at or prior to the point of ‘disassociation’ (breakdown of stable PCA trends) when approaching the residual strength. At the Golden Giant mine, the complete process from initiation to aseismic behaviour is monitored in a highly stressed and confined pendent pillar. The PCA technique, numerical modelling and focal mechanism studies are used to define significant stages of the failure process, in which a similar macrofracture structure was formed. Temporal observations of key source parameters show significant changes prior to and at the point of coalescence and localization.

As hard rock mining progresses into higher stress mining conditions through either late stage extraction or mining at depth, the rock mass is driven not just to the peak strength, but often well into the post-peak until complete ‘failure’ occurs and easier mining conditions become evident. Limited research has been accomplished in identifying the transition of the rock mass and its behaviour into the post-peak and this research investigates this behaviour in detail. As the rock mass progressively fails, fractures are initiated through intact rock and extension and shear failure of these and pre-existing features occurs. Associated with this failure are microseismic events, which can be used to give an indication of the strength state of the rock mass. Based on an analogy to laboratory testing of intact rock and measurement of acoustic emissions, the microseismicity can be used to identify, fracture initiation, coalescence of fractures (yield), localization (peak-strength), accumulation of damage (post-peak) and ultimate failure (residual strength) leading to aseismic behaviour. The case studies presented in this thesis provide an opportunity to examine and analyse rock mass failure into the post-peak, through the regional and confined failures at the Williams and the Golden Giant mines, both in the Hemlo camp in Northern Ontario, Canada. At the Williams mine, the progressive failure of a sill pillar region into the post-peak was analysed; relating the seismic event density, combined with numerical modelling and a spatial and temporal examination of the principal components analysis (PCA), to characterize the extent, trend and state of the yielding zone, which formed a macrofracture shear structure. Observations of conventional displacement instrumentation, indicates regional dilation or shear of the rock mass occurs at or prior to the point of ‘disassociation’ (breakdown of stable PCA trends) when approaching the residual strength. At the Golden Giant mine, the complete process from initiation to aseismic behaviour is monitored in a highly stressed and confined pendent pillar. The PCA technique, numerical modelling and focal mechanism studies are used to define significant stages of the failure process, in which a similar macrofracture structure was formed. Temporal observations of key source parameters show significant changes prior to and at the point of coalescence and localization.

Made available in DSpace on 2015-03-13T17:08:20Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 IrenaldoPCJ.pdf: 3773351 bytes, checksum: 66d713ebc6c47b7533bafff9f32c98e7 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2009-04-27 / Coordena??o de Aperfei?oamento de Pessoal de N?vel Superior / In this dissertation it was studied the rupture characteristic of earthquakes of the Town of Cascavel CE, Northeastern Brazil. Located on the border of the Potiguar Basin, the Town of Cascavel is one of the most seismically active intraplate areas in the country. In this town, on November 20th, 1980 a 5,2mb earthquake occurred. This was the largest earthquake ever reported in Northeast Brazil. Studies of this region using instruments were possible after 1989, with several campaigns being done using seismographic networks. From the beginning of the monitoring to April 2008 more than 55,000 events were recorded. With the data collected by a network with six 3-components digital seismographic stations during the campaigns done from September 29th, 1997 to March 5th, 1998, estimates of source parameters were found fitting the displacement spectra in the frequency domain for each event. From the fitting of the displacement spectra it was possible to obtain the corner frequency ( ) c f and long period amplitude ( ) W0 . Source parameters were determined following Brune (1970) and Madariaga (1976) models. Twenty-one seismic events were analyzed (0.7 ? ? 2.1) b m in order to estimate the source dimension (r ), seismic moment ( ) M0 , static stress drop (Ds ), apparent stress ( ) a s , seismic energy ( ) S E and moment magnitude ( ) W M for each of the events. It was observed that the ratio between radiated seismic energy and moment seismic (apparent stress) increases with increasing moment and hence magnitude at the observed range. As suggested by Abercrombie (1995), also in this work there is a breakdown in the scaling for earthquakes with magnitudes smaller than three ( < 3.0) W M , so that the rupture physics is different for larger events. If this assumption is valid, the earthquakes analyzed in this work are not selfsimilar. Thus, larger events tend to radiated more energy per unit area than smaller ones. / Nesta disserta??o foi estudada a caracter?stica de ruptura dos sismos da cidade de Cascavel CE, Nordeste Brasileiro. Localizada na borda da Bacia Potiguar, a cidade de Cascavel ? uma das ?reas intraplaca mais sismicamente ativa do Brasil. Neste munic?pio, no dia 20 de novembro de 1980, ocorreu o maior sismo de que se tem not?cia no Nordeste, com magnitude igual 5,2mb . A partir de 1989, essa regi?o tem sido estudada instrumentalmente, sendo realizadas diversas campanhas com redes sismogr?ficas. Desde o in?cio do monitoramento at? abril de 2008, foram registrados mais de 55.000 eventos. Com os dados coletados por uma rede de seis esta??es digitais triaxiais em uma campanha realizada entre 29 de setembro de 1997 e 05 de mar?o de 1998, foi realizado um estudo para determinar os par?metros de fonte, ajustando-se os espectros de deslocamento de cada sismo no dom?nio da frequ?ncia. A partir dos ajustes dos espectros de deslocamento, foi poss?vel obter os valores da frequ?ncia de corte ( ) c f e da amplitude de longo per?odo ( ) W0 . Os par?metros foram determinados a partir dos modelos de fonte propostos por Brune (1970) e Madariaga (1976) para 21 sismos (0,7 ? ? 2,1) b m , obtendo-se as estimativas do raio da fonte (r ), momento s?smico ( ) M0 , stress drop est?tico (Ds ), stress aparente ( ) a s , energia s?smica irradiada ( ) S E e magnitude momento ( ) W M de cada evento. Foi observado que o stress drop e a raz?o entre a energia irradiada e o momento s?smico (stress aparente) aumentam com o incremento do momento e, consequentemente, com o valor da magnitude para a escala investigada. Assim como sugerido por Abercrombie (1995), neste trabalho tamb?m parece haver um quebra na rela??o de escala para sismos com magnitudes menores que tr?s ( < 3,0) W M , o que implica em um processo de ruptura diferente para terremotos grandes e pequenos. Caso esta hip?tese seja v?lida, os sismos analisados neste trabalho n?o s?o autosimilares. Assim, os eventos maiores tendem a irradiar mais energia por unidade de ?rea que os menores.