A wide majority of orchid populations are decreasing due to habitat fragmentation and to changes in land management. Population size, density and habitat quality are factors that are expected to be positively related to the viability and future growth of a population. We evaluated if population size, density and soil organic matter were good predictors of growth, survival, flowering, recruitment, and growth rate in 18 populations of the long-lived orchid Gymnadenia conopsea. We followed the populations for four years. Recruitment in 2020 increased with population size, and survival in 2018 was higher in denser populations. However, flowering probability and number of flowers both decreased with population size in 2018. Soil organic matter did not significantly influence any vital rate. In total, the studied population factors could explain very little of the variation in demography. The matrix modelling showed that 14 of the 18 populations had a positive stochastic growth rate, even with an increased probability of summer drought (scenario with 50% of the years equal to the dry summer of 2018). In the populations with negative growth rate, the probability of quasi-extinction in the next 50 years varied from 90 to 100%. Declining populations were characterized by low survival following the dry year. In sum, population size, density and soil organic matter did not convincingly explain variation in growth rate of G. conopsea, suggesting that other environmental factors are responsible of governing variation in vitals rates and population dynamics.

In this thesis, I combined comparative and experimental approaches to examine selection on reproductive traits and population differentiation in the insect-pollinated, self-incompatible, perennial herb Primula farinosa. More specifically, I (1) determined whether the effects of floral display and interactions with pollinators and seed predators, and plant reproductive success were frequency-dependent and affected by surrounding vegetation context, (2) examined the consequences of intermittent drought years on population dynamics using numerical simulations based on demographic data collected over seven years, (3) analyzed among-population differentiation in flowering phenology and reproductive allocation, and its relationship to soil-depth at the site of origin. A field experiment suggested that conspicuous plants facilitate inconspicuous plants in terms of pollinator attraction, and that the facilitation effect is contingent on the height of the surrounding vegetation. Further experiments revealed that both mutualistic and antagonistic interactions can result in frequency-dependent selection on floral display. Among inconspicuous plants, both fruit initiation, and damage from seed predators increased with the proportion of the conspicuous morph. The relative strength of these effects, and therefore their net outcome on the relationship between morph ratio and seed production varied among years. I combined information on vital rates and their relation to environmental conditions in simulations to predict future population viability in changing environments. Simulated stochastic population growth rate decreased with increasing frequency of drought years. Reproductive allocation varied significantly among populations both in the field and in a common-garden experiment, but was correlated with soil depth at the site of origin only in the field. The results suggest that among-population variation in reproductive effort in the field mainly reflects plastic responses to environmental conditions, and that this plasticity may be adaptive. The common-garden experiment suggested that the study populations have diverged genetically in flowering time.

<p>In this thesis, I combined comparative and experimental approaches to examine selection on reproductive traits and population differentiation in the insect-pollinated, self-incompatible, perennial herb <i>Primula farinosa</i>. More specifically, I (1) determined whether the effects of floral display and interactions with pollinators and seed predators, and plant reproductive success were frequency-dependent and affected by surrounding vegetation context, (2) examined the consequences of intermittent drought years on population dynamics using numerical simulations based on demographic data collected over seven years, (3) analyzed among-population differentiation in flowering phenology and reproductive allocation, and its relationship to soil-depth at the site of origin. </p><p>A field experiment suggested that conspicuous plants facilitate inconspicuous plants in terms of pollinator attraction, and that the facilitation effect is contingent on the height of the surrounding vegetation. Further experiments revealed that both mutualistic and antagonistic interactions can result in frequency-dependent selection on floral display. Among inconspicuous plants, both fruit initiation, and damage from seed predators increased with the proportion of the conspicuous morph. The relative strength of these effects, and therefore their net outcome on the relationship between morph ratio and seed production varied among years. </p><p>I combined information on vital rates and their relation to environmental conditions in simulations to predict future population viability in changing environments. Simulated stochastic population growth rate decreased with increasing frequency of drought years. </p><p>Reproductive allocation varied significantly among populations both in the field and in a common-garden experiment, but was correlated with soil depth at the site of origin only in the field. The results suggest that among-population variation in reproductive effort in the field mainly reflects plastic responses to environmental conditions, and that this plasticity may be adaptive. The common-garden experiment suggested that the study populations have diverged genetically in flowering time.</p>