Three empirical studies are conducted examining the efficiency of S&P 500 futures prices and the pricing of these futures contracts. In the first study, the ability of futures prices to predict the realized spot S&P 500 index prices on the expiration date is examined for near term contracts. The futures prices are found to be unbiased predictors of the realized spot index prices for the nineteen quarterly contracts from 1982 to 1986. Previous studies report significant deviations in S&P SOO futures prices from theoretically determined Cost of Carry Model (CCM) prices. In the second study, it is found that the CCM using the federal funds rate, a proxy for the overnight repurchase rate, provides relatively better estimates of the S&P S(x) futures prices over the 1984-1986 period. The futures mispricing also reflects the weekend effect anomaly: futures prices are "over-priced" relative to CCM prices on Mondays, whereas the opposite occurs on Fridays. The futures over-pricing (under-pricing) is characterized by "bull" ("bear") financial markets and the extent of price changes are relatively greater in the futures market. The futures under-pricing is supported by strong future market volume and open-interest positions. The basis and changes in it over the futures contract period are measures of how well integrated the futures market and the underlying spot market are. In the third study, based on daily closing prices for the S&P 500 index and index futures for the 1984-1986 period, it is found that the basis decreases over the contract period but the rate of decrease is independent of the time to expiration. The change in basis on Mondays is generally positive which also reflects the weekend effect anomaly. The daily basis is negative on 107 days, which generally occurs during strong futures market trading volume and open interest positions. It is doubtful whether the negative basis can be attributed to a negative net financing cost, where the dividend yield 0.1 the spot index exceeds the cost of financing the spot index forward.

<p>The main purpose of this thesis is to investigate what is the optimal futures-spot arbitrage strategy for China‘s stock index futures investment. Specifically, Index replication method and no-arbitrage pricing model are examined. We compare the different combinations of ETFs portfolio in mainland China with W.I.S.E-CSI 300 ETF in Hong Kong in three aspects including liquidity level, correlation of ETFs with underlying index, and tracking error of the replication methods. Then, we add several new parameters into interval pricing model to obtain a more accurate no-arbitrage band. As a result, we found that the portfolio of SSE 50 ETF, SZSE 100 ETF, and SSE Bonus ETF could provide the best tracking effect of CSI 300 Index, with different weight as 0.369, 0.403, and 0.19 in turn separately. Furthermore, the new modified pricing model could find out more arbitrage opportunities than interval pricing model especially for reverse cash-and-carry arbitrage. On the whole, the optimal arbitrage strategy for investment on CSI 300 Index futures consist of two steps, implement ETFs portfolio replicate CSI 300 Index and using new modified pricing model to discover and define arbitrage opportunities then to apply futures-spot arbitrage. At the end of thesis, we also give a small case study to illustrate how to exercise the arbitrage strategy in realistic situation.</p>

The main purpose of this thesis is to investigate what is the optimal futures-spot arbitrage strategy for China‘s stock index futures investment. Specifically, Index replication method and no-arbitrage pricing model are examined. We compare the different combinations of ETFs portfolio in mainland China with W.I.S.E-CSI 300 ETF in Hong Kong in three aspects including liquidity level, correlation of ETFs with underlying index, and tracking error of the replication methods. Then, we add several new parameters into interval pricing model to obtain a more accurate no-arbitrage band. As a result, we found that the portfolio of SSE 50 ETF, SZSE 100 ETF, and SSE Bonus ETF could provide the best tracking effect of CSI 300 Index, with different weight as 0.369, 0.403, and 0.19 in turn separately. Furthermore, the new modified pricing model could find out more arbitrage opportunities than interval pricing model especially for reverse cash-and-carry arbitrage. On the whole, the optimal arbitrage strategy for investment on CSI 300 Index futures consist of two steps, implement ETFs portfolio replicate CSI 300 Index and using new modified pricing model to discover and define arbitrage opportunities then to apply futures-spot arbitrage. At the end of thesis, we also give a small case study to illustrate how to exercise the arbitrage strategy in realistic situation.

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by Ng Kit Yin Kitty, Yu Koon Ying Harry. / Thesis (M.B.A.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 1994. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 72-75). / ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS --- p.i / ABSTRACT --- p.ii / LIST OF FIGURES --- p.v / LIST OF TABLES --- p.vi / Chapter / Chapter I. --- INTRODUCTION --- p.1 / Chapter II. --- LITERATURE REVIEW --- p.3 / The Black-Scholes Model --- p.3 / Option Pricing --- p.4 / Price of the underlying asset --- p.4 / Volatility of the underlying asset --- p.5 / Time to expiration --- p.5 / The risk-free interest rate --- p.5 / Users of Options --- p.6 / Chapter III. --- HANG SENG INDEX OPTIONS --- p.8 / The Hang Seng Index (HSI) --- p.8 / Mechanics of Trading in HSI Options --- p.9 / Features of HSI Options --- p.10 / European Style --- p.11 / Cash Settlement on Exercise --- p.12 / Risk of Trading Options --- p.13 / Similarities and Differences Between HSI Options on the Futures Contracts and HSI Futures --- p.13 / Chapter IV. --- OPTIONS TRADING STRATEGIES --- p.15 / Rising Market Strategies --- p.15 / Declining Market Strategies --- p.17 / Volatile and Stable Market Strategies --- p.18 / Butterfly Spread --- p.20 / Calendar Spread --- p.20 / Chapter V. --- EX-POST STUDIES OF OPTION TRADING STRATEGIES --- p.23 / Methodology --- p.24 / Data Requirement --- p.25 / Assumptions --- p.25 / Empirical Results --- p.26 / Analysis of the First Scenario - Bullish Anticipation on the HSI Market --- p.32 / Ranking of Profits --- p.32 / Mechanics of the Bull Spread --- p.32 / Mechanics of the Calendar Call Spread --- p.32 / Analysis of the Second Scenario - Bearish Anticipation on the HSI Market --- p.39 / Ranking of Profits --- p.39 / Mechanics of the Calendar Put Spread --- p.40 / Analysis of the Third Scenario - Volatile Aniticipation on the HSI Market --- p.43 / Analysis of the Fourth Scenario - Stable Anticipation on the HSI Market --- p.47 / Summary of Our Analysis --- p.47 / Limitations --- p.48 / Recommendations --- p.49 / Chapter VI. --- REVIEW ON HANG SENG INDEX OPTIONS: THE 1993 EXPERIENCE --- p.50 / Relationship Between HSI Futures and HSI Options --- p.50 / Trading Volume --- p.51 / Open Positions --- p.51 / Volatility --- p.52 / Chapter VII. --- PROSPECTS FOR OPTIONS IN HONG KONG --- p.54 / Chapter VIII. --- CONCLUSION --- p.56 / APPENDIX --- p.57 / REFERENCES --- p.72

Chan Shuet Ying, Chan Yiu Wing. / Thesis (M.B.A.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 1995. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 122-124). / ABSTRACT --- p.ii / TABLE OF CONTENTS --- p.iii / LIST OF TABLES --- p.v / LIST OF EXHIBITS --- p.vi / ACKNOWLEDGMENTS --- p.vii / Chapter / Chapter I. --- INTRODUCTION --- p.1 / Background --- p.1 / Objective --- p.3 / Scope --- p.3 / Organization of Paper --- p.4 / Chapter II. --- THE HANG SENG INDEX OPTIONS --- p.5 / Description..................: --- p.5 / Mechanics of Hang Seng Index Option Trading --- p.13 / Market Reviews of HSI Options --- p.15 / Chapter III. --- LITERATURE REVIEW --- p.18 / Seasonal Patterns of Stock Returns --- p.18 / Month-of-the-Year Effect --- p.18 / Week-of-the-Month Effect --- p.18 / Day-of-the-Week Effect --- p.19 / Hour-of-the-Week Effect --- p.19 / Seasonality in Options Returns --- p.20 / Model of Strategic Trading --- p.21 / Seasonality in Hong Kong Stock Market --- p.24 / Chapter IV. --- EMPIRICAL STUDY OF INTRADAY PATTERN OF HSI OPTIONS --- p.26 / Data and Methodology --- p.26 / Obtaining data for the price of the underlying assets --- p.26 / Obtaining data for the price of the option contracts --- p.27 / Calculating means and standard deviations of returns --- p.31 / Chapter V. --- RESULTS AND DISCUSSION --- p.32 / Futures percentage returns per minute --- p.37 / Call options percentage returns per minute --- p.38 / Put options percentage returns per minute --- p.39 / Testing the relationship between index options and index future --- p.40 / Chapter VI. --- IMPLICATION OF FINDINGS AND CONCLUSIONS --- p.45 / Implication of Findings --- p.45 / Conclusions --- p.49 / APPENDIX --- p.50 / BIBLIOGRAPHY --- p.122

by Fung Lai-sang & Kwan Tat-shing. / Thesis (M.B.A.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 1995. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 60-64). / ABSTRACT --- p.ii / TABLE OF CONTENTS --- p.iii / LIST OF FIGURES --- p.v / LIST OF TABLES --- p.vi / ACKNOWLEDGMENT --- p.vii / Chapter / Chapter I. --- INTRODUCTION --- p.1 / Chapter II. --- HANG SENG INDEX OPTIONS --- p.3 / Hong Kong Futures Exchange Limited --- p.3 / Hang Seng Index --- p.4 / Basic Characteristics of HSI Options --- p.5 / Chapter III. --- LITERATURE REVIEW --- p.8 / (A) Put-Call Parity --- p.8 / Put-Call Parity on Other Security --- p.10 / Empirical Studies --- p.11 / Put-Call-Futures Parity --- p.12 / (B) Applicability of Black-Scholes Model --- p.14 / Possible Biases in Black-Scholes Model --- p.16 / (C) Hedging Effectiveness of Derivative Instruments --- p.18 / Empirical Evidence --- p.20 / Chapter IV. --- "EMPIRICAL METHODOLOGY, DATA EMPLOYED AND EMPIRICAL FINDINGS" --- p.22 / Chapter (A) --- Methodology and Data Employed in Investigation of Put-Call Parity for HSI Options --- p.22 / Empirical Findings for Put-Call Pariry for HSI Options --- p.26 / Chapter (B) --- Methodology anf Data Employed in Investigation of Applicability of Black-Scholes Model - An Implied Volatility Approach --- p.30 / Empirical Findings for Applicability of Black Scholes Model --- p.35 / Chapter (C) --- Methodology anf Data Employed in Investigation of the Hedging Effectiveness of Different Derivative Instrument / Methodology --- p.40 / Empirical Findings for Hedging Effectiveness of Different Derivative Instruments --- p.45 / Chapter V. --- "CONCLUSIONS, RECENT DEVELOPMENTS AND TRENDS OF HSI OPTIONS" --- p.48 / Conclusions --- p.48 / International Status --- p.49 / Work to Be Done --- p.50 / APPENDICES --- p.51 / BIBLIOGRAPHY --- p.60

by Adelaide Pang Lan-Fong & Danny Poon Yiu-tak. / Thesis (M.B.A.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 1993. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 83-88). / ABSTRACT --- p.ii / TABLE OF CONTENTS --- p.iii / LIST OF ILLUSTRATIONS --- p.v / LIST OF TABLES --- p.vi / LIST OF EXHIBITS --- p.vii / ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS --- p.viii / Chapter / Chapter I. --- INTRODUCTION --- p.1 / Chapter II. --- LITERATURE REVIEW --- p.3 / The Black-Scholes Model --- p.3 / The Test of the Applicability of the Black-Scholes Model --- p.4 / Test of predictability of Black-Scholes Model --- p.5 / Implied Volatility Estimation --- p.5 / Chapter III. --- OPTIONS DEFINED --- p.7 / What are Options ？ --- p.7 / Options Pricing --- p.10 / Intrinsic (Theoretical) Value --- p.10 / Time Value --- p.11 / Price Volatility --- p.12 / Interest Rates --- p.12 / Dividends --- p.12 / Chapter IV. --- HANG SENG INDEX OPTIONS --- p.13 / The Hang Seng Index --- p.13 / Specifications for HSI Options --- p.15 / The Trading Procedures of HSI Options --- p.19 / Advantages of Traded Index Options --- p.21 / Risks involved in Options Trading --- p.23 / Risks of Buying Options --- p.23 / Risk of Writing Options --- p.24 / Chapter V. --- BASIC STRATEGIES OF OPTIONS TRADING --- p.25 / Buy Call --- p.26 / Buy Put --- p.26 / Call Writing --- p.26 / Naked Call Writing --- p.26 / Covered Call Writing --- p.26 / Ratio Covered Call Writing --- p.27 / Put Writing --- p.27 / Naked Put Writing --- p.27 / Covered Put Writing --- p.27 / Ratio Covered Put Writing --- p.28 / Spreads --- p.28 / Bull Spreads --- p.28 / Bear Spreads --- p.28 / Butterfly Spreads --- p.29 / Calendar Spreads --- p.29 / Ratio Spreads --- p.30 / Ratio Calendar Spreads --- p.30 / Straddles --- p.30 / Straddle Purchase / Bottom Straddle --- p.31 / Straddle Write / Top Straddle --- p.31 / Strips --- p.31 / Straps --- p.31 / Strangles --- p.31 / Long Strangle / Bottom Vertical Combination --- p.31 / Short Strangle / Top Vertical Combination --- p.32 / Chapter VI. --- PRICING MODEL --- p.33 / The Biack-Scholes Option Pricing Model --- p.33 / Modifications to Original Black-Scholes Pricing Model --- p.33 / Empirical Analysis and Data Collection --- p.34 / Tests used to determine the performance of Black-Scholes Model --- p.38 / Chapter VII. --- EMPIRICAL RESULTS --- p.39 / Chapter VIII. --- CONCLUSIONS --- p.45 / APPENDICES --- p.48 / BIBLIOGRAPHY --- p.83