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Interactions between societal, natural, and infrastructure systems can be beneficial or harmful to society. Society benefits from natural systems by being provided with the basic necessities of life (air, water, and food). However, events such as stratospheric ozone depletion demonstrate that society ultimately can be harmed by societal impacts on natural systems. Domain knowledge is developed from observation of natural, societal, and infrastructure systems. Domain knowledge is contained within scientific knowledge and engineering knowledge. Scientific knowledge is gained through structured observation and rigorous analysis of natural and societal systems. Engineering knowledge is partially developed from scientific knowledge and is used to manipulate natural and societal systems. Technology is the application of engineering knowledge. In the past two centuries scientific and engineering knowledge have produced technologies that affect the interaction between societal and natural systems. Although scientists and engineers are in positions to advise on policies to address problems involving societal/natural system interactions, their contributions are not always fully utilized. This research examines feedback mechanisms that describe societal, natural, and infrastructure system interaction to develop an improved understanding of the dynamic interactions between society, natural systems, infrastructure systems, scientific and engineering knowledge, technology, and public policy. These interactions are investing through and opposing case study analysis performed using computer simulation modeling. The stratospheric ozone depletion study represents a case in which domain experts successfully influenced public policy. The U.S. civilian nuclear power study represents a case in which domain experts were less successful in influencing public policy. The system dynamics methodology is used to construct these two highly integrated models of societal-natural system interaction. Individual model sectors, based on existing theory, describe natural/infrastructure systems, knowledge and technology development, societal risk perception, and public policy. The work reveals that the influence of scientists and engineers in the public policy is due in part to their ability to shift dominance between causal feedback mechanisms that seek to minimize societal risk from natural systems and feedback mechanisms that seek to minimize the economic risk of increased regulations. The ability to alter feedback mechanism dominance is not solely dependent upon scientists and engineers ability to develop knowledge but to a larger extent depends on their ability to interact with policy makers and society when describing issues involving natural and infrastructure systems.

Severe ozone depletion in the polar lower stratosphere has been linked to significant changes in tropospheric circulation patterns in the both hemispheres. Observed Southern Hemisphere circulation changes are easily reproduced in climate models and may be achieved by either increasing ozone depleting substances in a chemistry-climate model(CCM) or by imposing observed ozone losses as a zonally-symmetric perturbation in a prescribed-ozone global circulation model (GCM). In the Northern Hemisphere however, only the CCM method produces a circulation response in agreement with analysis of observations, while the GCM method is unable to produce any significant tropospheric circulation changes from imposing observed zonal-mean Arctic ozone losses. Confidence in a mechanistic link between Arctic stratospheric ozone change and changes in tropospheric circulation is greatly increased if the change can be reproduced using a GCM in addition to being reproducible in a CCM. This thesis demonstrates that by allowing ozone to vary along longitude, and by imposing ozone depletion during a realistic timeframe, the GCM method can produce circulation changes compatible with both the CCM method and observations. An equivalent-latitude coordinate allows the prescribed ozone field, and imposed ozone losses, to follow the polar vortex as it is systematically disturbed or displaced off the pole throughout the winter, producing a realistic circulation response in the troposphere in contrast to when ozone and its imposed losses are zonally-symmetric. Timing the imposed ozone depletion with the breakup of the polar vortex reveals that the appearance of the circulation response is very sensitive to the relative timing of these events and to the pre-existing dynamical state of the polar vortex. These results demonstrate that prescribing ozone as a zonally symmetric climatology within a GCM, as has been recent practice in the literature, is only representative of the Southern Hemisphere and is inappropriate for accurately representing processes within the Arctic stratosphere. Moreover this work demonstrates that these dynamically-evolving zonal asymmetries in ozone, which are not present in zonally-symmetric ozone schemes, play a crucial role in allowing perturbations in the Arctic stratosphere to influence the troposphere and surface conditions.

A contextual citation analysis was performed on a sample of 68 articles citing either or both oftwo key papers from the research field of stratospheric ozone monitoring.The theoretical approach of each article was assessed as either chemical or dynamical, or wasleft unspecified. Functions of citations to the two key papers were classified into 13 categories,seen to express various kinds of relevance relationships. Topical relatedness between citedand citing articles was studied in terms of number of shared descriptors and the union overlapmeasure. A certain theory~dependence, in the sense of a relatively high degree of correspondence between the theoretical approach of citing and cited articles, was observed in the material. The correlation between topical relatedness and citation relationships appeared to beweak.

Tierra del Fuego, at the southernmost tip of South America, is influenced by ozone depletion. The landscape of southern and western Tierra de! Fuego is dominated by peatlands; they are important locally and in the context of global climate change, because they store large quantities of organic carbon. To determine the influence of solar ultraviolet-B radiation (UV-B) on a Tierra de! Fuego peatland, we selectively filtered solar UV-Bin ten pairs of plots. Polyfluorine filters were used to create the Near-Ambient-UV-B Treatment ( 90% solar UV-B), and polyester filters to create the Reduced-UV-B Treatment ( 17% solar UV-B). These filters were first installed in October 1996, and were maintained, September-March, for six years. Following previous plant growth measurements and samples of selected microorganisms under the two UV-B treatments (1996-1999), this dissertation is an account of the more detailed measurements made during the second three-year period of treatments (1999-2001 ). Seasonal sampling of the plant community, microfungi, microfauna, and biogeochemistry of the water and nutrients held by the Sphagnum capitulum was introduced, in an attempt to better understand ecosystem function. Solar UV-B reduced Sphagnum height growth, but this was compensated by more compressed and densely packed Sphagnum capitula. Emergent vascular plants, Nothofagus, Empetrum, and Tetroncium, were more affected than Sphagnum by nearambient UV-B. Solar UV-B altered the Sphagnum-capitulum microenvironment, resulting in: more dissolved organic carbon and phosphorous, higher electrical conductivity, and greater acidity under near-ambient UV-B. Additionally, the populations of testate amoebae and some species of fungi were consistently increased; however, microfungal diversity and rotifer, nematode, and mite populations decreased under near-ambient UV-B. Generally, Sphagnum minimizes the leaching of nutrients by effectively holding water at the capitulum. Solar UV-B altered Sphagnum-capitulum morphology, increased the volume of water held, and made this water more acidic and richer in nutrients. Based on these results, if current trends in ozone depletion were to persist over several decades, a reduction in vascular plant growth, and changes in the trophic relationships of the microorganismal community of the Sphagnum capitulum, would be predicted. These responses have the potential to affect peatland carbon storage and nutrient cycling in Tierra del Fuego.

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L'ozone joue un rôle primordial sur l'équilibre photochimique de l'atmosphère et participe au processus d'équilibrage radiatif entre les deux hémisphères (Mecke, 1931). Dans la troposphère, l'ozone détermine la capacité oxydante de la majorité des gaz et absorbe continuellement dans la stratosphère les radiations ultraviolettes nocives (McMicheal et al., 2003). D'où l'intérêt de surveiller la variation de la couche d'ozone de façon régulière. Il a été constaté au début des années 80, une diminution inquiétante et progressive de la colonne totale de l'ozone dûe aux émissions anthropiques des substances riches en chlore, brome et fluor. Ce constat a conduit au Protocole de Montréal en 1987 dont l'objectif est de mettre en place une politique internationale visant à réduire les émissions des substances appauvrissant l'ozone. Dix ans après la signature du dit Protocole, la concentration de ces substances commence à diminuer dans l'atmosphère et la prospection d'un recouvrement progressif de la couche d'ozone demeure aujourd'hui un sujet d'actualité (UNEP/PNUE, 2009 ; OMM, 2010 et 2014). Les besoins d'aujourd'hui sont de réaliser des mesures continues et fiables de l'ozone dont leurs exploitation dans des méthodes et/ ou des modèles bien adaptés à la problématique aideront la communauté à suivre l'évolution de l'ozone et d'estimer les tendances à long terme. Dans ce travail, une variété de produits d'ozone issue de différents instruments a été combinée pour construire des bases des données fiables et homogènes afin d'étudier sa variabilité et d'estimer la tendance de l'ozone dans les régions tropicale et subtropicale sud. L'application de ces bases de données sur les ondelettes a permis d'identifier les principaux forçages qui contrôlent la variabilité de l'ozone et la période de retour associée à chaque forçage. Il s'agit des variations saisonnières du climat, les oscillations quasi-biennales, les oscillations australes El-Niño et l'activité solaire dont le cycle moyen est évalué à 11ans. Le comportement et l'influence de chacun de ces paramètres sur la viabilité de l'ozone sont étudiés. Cette étude est faite en s'appuyant sur des méthodes statistiques et sur le modèle Trend-Run. Avec ce modèle, la part de contribution et la réponse de chaque paramètre sur la variabilité de l'ozone sont quantifiées. Les résultats sur les tendances montrent une augmentation de la couche d'ozone avec un taux variant entre 0 et 2.78% par décade (selon la région et le site) sur la période 1998-2012. Cette amélioration est bien observée au-dessus de 22km, surtout aux subtropiques par rapport à la région équatoriale. / Ozone plays an important role on photochemical equilibrium of atmosphere and participate on radiative balance process between hemispheres (Mecke, 1931). In the troposphere, ozone determines the oxidizing capacity of major species and absorbs continuously in the stratosphere the harmful ultraviolet radiation (McMichael et al, 2003). Based on the above facts, it is important to monitor ozone continuously with consistency and accuracy. Global total column ozone (TCO) has depleted gradually since 1980 with an increase of chlorofluorocarbon concentrations in the stratosphere due to anthropogenic activities. In 1987, the Montreal protocol was formulated in order to regulate the emissions of substances that deplete ozone. Concentrations of these substances are observed to decrease ten years after the Montreal protocol. Thus we have been expecting an increase in ozone by now (UNEP/PNUE, 2009; WMO, 2010 and 2014). The current needs are to achieve consistent and reliable measurements in which their exploitation on adapted methods/models can help scientists to follow the ozone evolution and to estimate long term ozone trend. In this work, a variety of ozone products from different instruments was combined in order to create reliable and homogenous dataset to study the ozone variability and trend over the southern tropics and subtropics. The dataset application on wavelets method allowed to identify the dynamic parameters that control ozone variability and their periodicities. These include seasonal variations of climate, the quasi-biennial oscillations, the El-Niño Southern Oscillation and the 11-years solar cycle. The behavior of each parameter and its influence on ozone variability were analysed based on statistical method and the Trend-Run model. The contribution and response of each variable on ozone variability were quantified from the model. The obtained trends results exhibit an increase of total ozone from 1998 to 2012 with a rate varying between 0 and 2.78% par decade (depending of the site and region). The ozone increase was observed mainly above 22 km and it is more important over the subtropical region with respect to equatorial zone.

Global civilisation, and therefore population health, is threatened by excessive inequality, weapons of mass destruction, inadequate economic and political theory and adverse global environmental change. The unequal distribution of global foreign exchange adjusted income is both a cause and a reflection of global social characteristics responsible for many aspects of these inter-related crises. ¶ The global distribution of foreign exchange adjusted income for the period 1964-1999 is examined. Using data for more than 99% of the global population, a substantial divergence in its distribution is found. The global Gini co-efficient, adjusted for national income inequality, increased from an already high value of 71% in 1964 to peak at more than 80% in 1995, before falling, very slightly, to 79% in 1999. The global distribution of purchasing parity power income is also examined, for a similar period. Though also found to be extremely unequal, its trend has not been to increased inequality. Implications of the differences between these two trends are discussed. ¶ A weighted time series index of global environmental change (IGEC) for the period 1960-1997 was also calculated. This uses nine categories of global time series environmental data, each scaled so that 100% represents the level of each category in nature prior to anthropogenic change; zero represents decline to a critical point. This index fell from 82% in 1960 to 55% in 1997, and will further decline during this century. ¶ Using evidence from several disciplines, it is argued that the decline in the IGEC correlates with major macro-environmental changes, which, combined with flawed social responses to scarcity and its perception, place at risk the ability of civilisation to function. This could occur because of the interaction of conflict, economically disastrous extreme climatic events, deterioration of other ecosystem services, regional food and water insecurity, and currently unforeseen events. Uncertainty regarding both a safe rate of decline and the tolerable nadir of the IGEC is substantial. ¶ Substantial reduction in the inequality of foreign exchange adjusted income is vital to enhance the development of policies able to reverse the decline in the environmental goods which underpin civilisation, and to promote the co-operation needed to maximise the chance that civilisation will survive.