本研究探討了收益率（earnings yield）和亞洲市場的長期政府債券收益率( long term government bond yield)的關係。並且運用結構性變異來以提高聯準會模型和股價的相關性。聯準會模型是用來判斷市場是否高估或低估股價或在其公允價值。本研究在亞洲十個主要市場進行實證研究，探討聯準會模型中不同的時間跨度的關係。結果顯示在亞洲國家，大盤的收益率和幾個月後的長期政府債券收益率之間有強關聯性。本研究通過迴歸分析研究來研究此模型的預測能力，並考慮不同的結構性變異檢定法ROC 和Bai_Perron檢定，結論顯示了ROC 檢定法更有效的偵測結構變異，提高聯準會模型的預測能力。 / This paper examines the possible relationship the earnings yield and long term government bond yield for the Asia markets. We apply structure break test to improve the Fed-model, which is used to judge whether stock prices are too high, too low or at their fair value. The paper examines the relationship proposed by the Fed- model with different time horizons. The findings reveal a strong association between long term government yield and the earnings yield in months later. The difference between the earnings yield and real bond yield is a shorthand measure for expected returns and we examine the predictive power of this measure by regression analysis. Considering ROC test and Bai_Perron test, it shows ROC test improves the forecasting power of Fed model with a better result.

This paper uses the panel data of 11 OECD countries over a period from 1971 to 2006. Unlike the traditional cointegration model which omitted the impact of structural breaks in the analysis, this paper applies panel cointegration with structural break test proposed by Westerlund (2006), panel unit root test, and panel dynamic OLS test. The empirical results indicate that health care expenditure and economic growth (GDP per capita) are non-stationary in the series; and between the two variables, a long-term cointegration relationship exists. Moreover, a positive correlation between HCE and economic growth is found in the panel dynamic OLS model. The researcher concludes that investing in health capital improves human capital and that boosts economic growth in the sample countries, and vice versa. More importantly, allowing structural breaks in the cointegration analysis obtains reliability in the estimation and proves more detailed and specific information on the consequence of the momentous events on the two variables; and thus enables policy makers and health economists to propose more effective strategies.