Ingeniero Comercial, Mención Administración / Este trabajo tiene por objetivo analizar algunos de los eventos más importantes que constituyeron la crisis subprime, junto con su impacto en Chile y algunos de los mercados bursátiles más importantes del mundo (Estados Unidos, Inglaterra, Alemania, Japón y Brasil) por medio de la metodología de estudio de eventos. De manera más específica, se construyó la cronología de la crisis subprime y se seleccionaron cuatro eventos considerados relevantes en su desarrollo: (1) la quiebra del banco comercial Lehman Brothers; (2) el anuncio del plan de rescate por parte de la Reserva Federal de Estados Unidos; (3) el posterior rechazo de dicho plan; y (4) el repunte del índice S&P 500, como evento que marcaría el comienzo de la recuperación a nivel global. A continuación, utilizando la metodología de Estudio de Eventos propuesta por Brown y Warner (1980), se analizó la existencia de retornos anormales estadísticamente significativos –bajo los tres modelos comúnmente usados–, en los días próximos a los eventos ya mencionados, con el objetivo de estimar el impacto de éstos en algunos de los principales mercados bursátiles del mundo y en Chile. Los resultados indican que los AR fueron significativos cuando se dió a conocer la quiebra de Lehman Brothers, tanto en EE.UU. como Alemania; y, bajo dos de los métodos, también fueron significativos en Inglaterra y Japón. Por otra parte, el anuncio del plan de rescate arrojó AR significativos en todos los países estudiados, con excepción de Chile. El posterior rechazo del plan generó retornos anormales significativos sólo en Alemania; en el resto de los países, dos de los tres metodos arrojaron resultados significativos, excepto en Chile, donde los resultados no fueron concluyentes. El último evento produjo resultados significativos en EE.UU., y también en Alemania e Inglaterra al día siguiente del acontecimiento. Al realizar el estudio utilizando el índice globlal MSCI, se obtuvieron resultados similares.

Submitted by Diego Roberto Cintra da Silva null (diegocntr@hotmail.com) on 2017-01-22T14:31:57Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Diego Cintra - Dissertação - Mestrado.pdf: 3332491 bytes, checksum: cb4ba5462d138f7b73df3323acd794c3 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Juliano Benedito Ferreira (julianoferreira@reitoria.unesp.br) on 2017-01-25T16:43:04Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 silva_drc_me_bauru.pdf: 3332491 bytes, checksum: cb4ba5462d138f7b73df3323acd794c3 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2017-01-25T16:43:04Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 silva_drc_me_bauru.pdf: 3332491 bytes, checksum: cb4ba5462d138f7b73df3323acd794c3 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2016-12-02 / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES) / As crises que ocorrem no mercado de ações são prejudiciais não só à parte monetária da economia de um país, mas ao desenvolvimento do país como um todo. A crise do subprime em 2008, que se iniciou nos Estados Unidos da América, atingiu o mundo todo, muitos países tiveram quedas significativas do PIB e vários entraram em recessão. Existe, então, o interesse em se compreender a dinâmica das séries temporais de variáveis como retorno e volatilidade das ações negociadas nesse mercado, a fim de compreender as diferenças de seu comportamento em momentos de crise econômica. Com o objetivo de analisar o espectro de correlação da volatilidade de ações no período da crise de 2008 e em suas vizinhanças, foram verificadas 31 ações de empresas pertencentes a diversos setores da economia brasileira, que compuseram entre 2007 e 2011 o Índice Bovespa. Para tal foram utilizados os métodos do Detrended Fluctuation Analisys – DFA e do Detrended Cross-Correlation Analisys – DCCA. Ambos métodos evidenciaram uma significativa mudança na função de probabilidade no período de crise comparativamente aos períodos de sua vizinhança. / Crises occurring in the stock market are harmful not only to the monetary part of a country's economy, but to the development of the country as a whole. The subprime crisis in 2008, which began in the United States of America, hit the whole world, many countries had significant declines in GDP and several went into recession. There is, therefore, an interest in understanding the dynamics of time series of variables such as return and volatility of the shares traded in this market, in order to understand the differences in their behavior in times of economic crisis. With the objective of analyzing the correlation spectrum of stock volatility in the period of the 2008 crisis and its neighborhoods, 31 stocks of companies belonging to various sectors of the Brazilian economy were verified, which made up the Bovespa Index between 2007 and 2011. The methods of Detrended Fluctuation Analyzes - DFA and Detrended Cross-Correlation Analyzes - DCCA were used for this. Both methods evidenced a significant change in the probability function in the period of crisis compared to the periods of its neighborhood.

Thesis advisor: Patrick H. Byrne / In this dissertation, I attempt to contribute to Lonergan scholarship by bringing greater clarity to his notions of general and group bias. By applying these notions to a concrete event, the subprime mortgage crisis, I intend to shed light on their meaning and significance in a new way. Over the course of this dissertation, I will investigate and employ other theoretical tools that Lonergan provides, such as his notions of transcendental method, self-appropriation, common sense, and values, and especially the destructive impact of group and general bias upon the good of order. The theoretical ideas that are examined in this dissertation have a heuristic value, for they have the potential to help individuals notice areas and respond to issues that might have otherwise been overlooked. The subprime mortgage crisis, which arguably began when American house prices dropped in July of 2006, was the product of an accumulation of biased decisions over time. Lonergan's notion of the general bias of common sense afflicted many of the central parties involved in the subprime mortgage market leading up to the crisis, prompting them to conclude that house prices would interminably rise. Institutional relationships that were impaired by this biased orientation toward the housing market came to be further plagued by Lonergan's notion of group bias. Ultimately, I argue that subprime mortgage crisis was a manifestation of a breakdown in the good of order, which is a component of Lonergan's notion of the invariant structure of the human good. Chapter One consists of a presentation and explication of the set of Lonergan's theoretical tools that are utilized in this study. The chapter begins with an exploration of his transcendental method and then proceeds with a discussion that includes his notions of cognitional structure, self-appropriation, common sense, values and judgments of value, conversion, self-transcendence, authenticity, bias, and the invariant structure of the human good. Chapter Two serves a bridge between these theoretical terms and my analysis of the parties that were involved in the subprime mortgage crisis. In addition to arguing that the general bias of common sense distorted the decision making processes of many of the significant players in the subprime mortgage market, I will also contend that group bias was operative leading up to and during this crisis. The emphasis in this latter section will be on instances of "co-opted" group bias, or arrangements in which different parties cooperated with one another in mutually advantageous ways in the short-term, but to the detriment of the good of order. Chapters Three through Six each focus on one of the parties that played an instrumental role in the development and outbreak of the subprime mortgage crisis: subprime lenders (Chapter Three), arrangers (Chapter Four), credit rating agencies (Chapter Five), and Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (Chapter Six). I examine key regulatory relationships in these chapters as well and note that, in many cases, they were ensnared by general and group bias. My concluding analysis is that, as an accumulation of biased decisions, the subprime mortgage crisis was an avoidable outcome, for individual submission to bias is not inevitable. / Thesis (PhD) — Boston College, 2012. / Submitted to: Boston College. Graduate School of Arts and Sciences. / Discipline: Philosophy.

Thesis (M.A.)--University of Hong Kong, 2008. / Includes bibliographical references (p. 96-99).

published_or_final_version / Geography / Master / Master of Arts in China Development Studies

<p>År 2006 började en skarp nedgång av huspriserna på den amerikanska bomarknaden, efter flera års stadiga ökningar, och man talade om en bubbla på husmarknaden. Det grundade sig i att folk trodde på kontinuerliga ökningar av huspriserna. Effekterna spred sig sedan till andra delar i den amerikanska ekonomin och hela världens börser påverkades av denna nedgång. I uppsatsen framkommer det att många olika aktörer bär på skulden för denna utveckling och gemensamt för dessa är att de alla varit överoptimistiska.</p><p>Syftet med denna uppsats är att undersöka varför husbubblan uppkom och hur den kunde få sådan global verkan samt vilka eller vad som bär på skulden. Detta görs med hjälp av data från sekundära källor såsom artiklar och databaser.</p>

Seminario para optar al grado de Ingeniero Comercial, Mención Economía / No autorizada por los autores para ser publicada a texto completo / La dependencia de los pa ses emergentes al cr edito externo proveniente de pa ses desarrollados ha aumentado en los ultimos a~nos. El shock externo de 2008 impact o negativamente en el crecimiento total de las colocaciones internacionales de estos pa ses emergentes, pero no es claro si lo que motiv o dicha ca da fueron factores de oferta o demanda. A trav es de un panel de datos para 22 econom as emergentes, se encuentra que factores de oferta y demanda contribuyeron de distinta forma seg un area geogr a ca en que se ubica el pa s emergente, y el efecto de la oferta fue m as fuerte en el peak de la crisis ( nes de 2008). Adicionalmente se presenta un an alisis del caso chileno, donde se muestra que factores de demanda jugaron un rol central en la contracci on del cr edito, y que el comportamiento de esta variable fue heterog eneo entre los distintos sectores productivos del paí s.

År 2006 började en skarp nedgång av huspriserna på den amerikanska bomarknaden, efter flera års stadiga ökningar, och man talade om en bubbla på husmarknaden. Det grundade sig i att folk trodde på kontinuerliga ökningar av huspriserna. Effekterna spred sig sedan till andra delar i den amerikanska ekonomin och hela världens börser påverkades av denna nedgång. I uppsatsen framkommer det att många olika aktörer bär på skulden för denna utveckling och gemensamt för dessa är att de alla varit överoptimistiska. Syftet med denna uppsats är att undersöka varför husbubblan uppkom och hur den kunde få sådan global verkan samt vilka eller vad som bär på skulden. Detta görs med hjälp av data från sekundära källor såsom artiklar och databaser.

This research attempts to construct the dynamic model of forming process in Subprime Crisis by systemic thinking and find out the solution by using Archetype. We extensively review literature concerning Subprime Mortgage, Credit transaction, System Dynamics, and Finance. Then based on these literature, this research would construct Causal Feedback Loop Diagram to search for Leverage Solution and hopes to resolve the financial problem fundamentally. After reviewing previous literature, most articles only focus on short-term and limited discussion, so this research attempts to put them together by Causal Feedback Loop Diagram. Through analysis, this research find out the concealed Values behind Subprime Crisis, that is the pursuit of capitalism ,in other words, it means decision-makers only care about short-term benefits lack of consideration of the consequence. So the more effective strategy is ¡§to hold Management Flight Simulator Seminar for managers¡¨ and ¡§to increase the opportunity for the general public to get access to system thinking.¡¨ Furthermore, we also discover that ¡§Moral Courage¡¨ cannot be neglected in the recent Subprime Crisis. If we continue to limit our thinking, the financial crisis would never end and would happen again and again. The better way is to strengthen risk control and to hold a value system when facing chain reaction of the Subprime Crisis.

The Sub-prime loan crisis occurred in America caused from low interest, higher home prices, banks¡¦ greedy securitized mortgage and then, in 2007, invest rate rose, and housing prices dropped sharply. The investors got hit and credit market crunched finally. Before the crisis, the risks were ignored. Banks, hedge funds and insurance companies packaged and repackaged the products as RMBS, CDOS to inventors, and they did buy them a lot all over the world. Nobody knows exactly who owns what by how much that will affected sub-prime mortgage loan. Until 2007 the world turned up-side down, interest rate rose higher and higher, the housing market collapsed, and then Credit rating agencies downgraded to about 1,000 MBS (mortgage-backed securities). In the study will find out how sub-prime loan crisis is happened, when it will be over, as well as the relevant accounting and risk events.