I analyzed the 21 year dynamics of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) in 55 lakes in five sites across Eastern Canada in relation to regional and global variables. Regional variables included total solar radiation (TSR), precipitation (PPTN), air temperature (T) and sulfate deposition (SO4). Global variables included the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). A synchronous pattern in DOC was found among lakes within each region; however, a synchronous pattern in DOC was not found between sites, except for Kejimkujik and Yarmouth which were only 80 km apart from each other. This suggested that the variation of the long-term DOC pattern was in response to the temporal pattern of regional variables, and it supports the recent understanding that regional factors have a strong influence on many lake properties. Significant long-term trends in DOC were not evident except at the Experimental Lakes Area (ELA), where an increase in DOC was observed together with a decrease in summer TSR and an increase in summer precipitation. Annual mean air temperature has increased at the Nova Scotia and Turkey lakes sites over the study period. The relationship between the long-term pattern in DOC with the regional and global variables was analyzed for each study site to determine the key variables that could best explain the variation in the long-term pattern in DOC. TSR and PPTN were important independent variables across all sites, except for the Turkey Lakes Watershed site (TLW). Summer TSR (annual TSR for Kejimkujik and Yarmouth) had a negative relationship, while summer precipitation had a positive relationship with the long-term DOC pattern for all sites except TLW. TSR and PPTN explained 78%, 49% and 84% of the variation in the long-term DOC pattern at Dorset, ELA, and Nova Scotia (NS) sites, respectively. In contrast, the long-term pattern in DOC at TLW only had a weak relationship with the regional and global variables considered. A General model was developed to compare the strength of the response of DOC to the regional variables among sites. Therefore, only the variables which had a significant linear correlation with DOC across sites were selected. If a site had no variables in common with other sites, it was excluded from the general model. This resulted in TLW being excluded from the general model because the long-term DOC pattern at TLW was not significantly correlated with any regional variables. The best general model included TSR from Dorset, ELA and NS sites and precipitation from only the NS site. The strengths of the response of DOC to precipitation were weak at Dorset and ELA compared to NS, therefore, they were excluded. The general model explained 91% of the site-to-site variation of DOC among sites. Among them, TSR was an important negative variable which contributed 56% of the explanation to the general model. Precipitation at NS was an important positive variable for the general model. It contributed 34% of the explanation to the model. As the response of the long-term DOC pattern to the changes of environmental variables (TSR and PPTN) was very strong at NS, the NS site dominated the general model, and its temporal (year-to-year) variation in the long-term DOC pattern explained 60% of the site-to-site variation of DOC in Eastern Canada. The other two sites, Dorset and ELA, had weak contributions (20% and 11%, respectively) to the general model.

I analyzed the 21 year dynamics of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) in 55 lakes in five sites across Eastern Canada in relation to regional and global variables. Regional variables included total solar radiation (TSR), precipitation (PPTN), air temperature (T) and sulfate deposition (SO4). Global variables included the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). A synchronous pattern in DOC was found among lakes within each region; however, a synchronous pattern in DOC was not found between sites, except for Kejimkujik and Yarmouth which were only 80 km apart from each other. This suggested that the variation of the long-term DOC pattern was in response to the temporal pattern of regional variables, and it supports the recent understanding that regional factors have a strong influence on many lake properties. Significant long-term trends in DOC were not evident except at the Experimental Lakes Area (ELA), where an increase in DOC was observed together with a decrease in summer TSR and an increase in summer precipitation. Annual mean air temperature has increased at the Nova Scotia and Turkey lakes sites over the study period. The relationship between the long-term pattern in DOC with the regional and global variables was analyzed for each study site to determine the key variables that could best explain the variation in the long-term pattern in DOC. TSR and PPTN were important independent variables across all sites, except for the Turkey Lakes Watershed site (TLW). Summer TSR (annual TSR for Kejimkujik and Yarmouth) had a negative relationship, while summer precipitation had a positive relationship with the long-term DOC pattern for all sites except TLW. TSR and PPTN explained 78%, 49% and 84% of the variation in the long-term DOC pattern at Dorset, ELA, and Nova Scotia (NS) sites, respectively. In contrast, the long-term pattern in DOC at TLW only had a weak relationship with the regional and global variables considered. A General model was developed to compare the strength of the response of DOC to the regional variables among sites. Therefore, only the variables which had a significant linear correlation with DOC across sites were selected. If a site had no variables in common with other sites, it was excluded from the general model. This resulted in TLW being excluded from the general model because the long-term DOC pattern at TLW was not significantly correlated with any regional variables. The best general model included TSR from Dorset, ELA and NS sites and precipitation from only the NS site. The strengths of the response of DOC to precipitation were weak at Dorset and ELA compared to NS, therefore, they were excluded. The general model explained 91% of the site-to-site variation of DOC among sites. Among them, TSR was an important negative variable which contributed 56% of the explanation to the general model. Precipitation at NS was an important positive variable for the general model. It contributed 34% of the explanation to the model. As the response of the long-term DOC pattern to the changes of environmental variables (TSR and PPTN) was very strong at NS, the NS site dominated the general model, and its temporal (year-to-year) variation in the long-term DOC pattern explained 60% of the site-to-site variation of DOC in Eastern Canada. The other two sites, Dorset and ELA, had weak contributions (20% and 11%, respectively) to the general model.

During the last three decades, a number of studies based on national environmental monitoring data have found increased concentrations of total organic carbon (TOC) in surface waters in much of the northern hemisphere including Sweden. There are many hypothesis of what has been the main cause of this trend, including changes in land use, decreased atmospheric deposition of acidifying compounds and climate change. Different hypothesis may have different implications for quantifying pre-industrial levels and for future predictions of TOC concentrations, which in turn will have different implications for water classification according to the European Water Framework Directive, water management and drinking water treatment. To analyse the long term effects of industrialisation and climate change on TOC in surface waters there is a need for long term time series of data. Since environmental monitoring data in Sweden only extends back to the mid-1980s, other techniques must be used in order to reconstruct data. In this study, sediment cores from 17 lakes along a climatic and deposition gradient in Sweden were collected and analysed with visible near infrared spectroscopy (VNIRS), an analytical technique that makes it possible to reconstruct historic surface water concentrations of TOC to pre-industrial conditions. A previous study with VNIRS showed that TOC concentrations declined in response to sulfate deposition until peak sulfur deposition in 1980, and thereafter increased as a result of sharp reductions of sulfate emissions. It was noted that the rate of increase of TOC after 1980 was faster than the rate of decrease due to sulfate deposition before 1980. The purpose of this study was therefore to explore the hypothesis that increasing TOC concentrations have not only been due to recovery from acidification, but also due to changes in climate. It was possible to analyse the long term effects of industrialisation and climate change on surface water TOC by analysing the reconstructed TOC data together with climate data from the beginning of the 1900s, modelled data of atmospheric sulfate deposition and environmental monitoring data, with uni- and multivariate analysis methods. It was found that the recent increase in TOC concentrations could be explained by both decreases in acidifying atmospheric deposition and increased precipitation, while temperature may have a decreasing effect on TOC. It was also found that the rate of increase of TOC-concentrations has been faster in the colder northern parts of Sweden and slower in the warmer south. The results imply that TOC concentrations will continue to rise to unpreceded levels and should be of concern for drinking water treatment plants that will need to adapt their treatment processes in the future. / Under de senaste tre årtiondena har ett flertal studier baserade på data från nationella miljöövervakningsprogram rapporterat ökande koncentrationer av organiskt kol (TOC) i ytvatten på norra halvklotet inklusive Sverige. Det finns många hypoteser om vad som ligger bakom trenden, till exempel förändringar i markanvändning, minskad atmosfärisk deposition av försurande ämnen och klimatförändringar. Olika förklaringar till vad som ligger bakom den ökande trenden ger konsekvenser vid kvantifiering av förindustriella nivåer och för förutsägelser om framtida koncentrationer, vilket i sin tur ger konsekvenser för vattenklassificering enligt Ramvattendirektivet, vattenförvaltning och dricksvattenberedning. För att kunna analysera de långsiktiga effekterna av industrialisering och klimatförändringar på TOC i ytvatten behövs långa tidsserier av data. Då den svenska miljöövervakningen endast sträcker sig tillbaka till mitten av 1980-talet måste andra tekniker användas för att rekonstruera data. I den här studien har sedimentproppar från 17 sjöar längs en klimat- och depositionsgradient analyserats med visible near infrared spektroskopi (VNIRS), en analysteknik som gör det möjligt att rekonstruera TOC-koncentrationer i ytvatten till förindustriell tid. En tidigare studie med VNIRS visade att TOC-koncentrationer sjönk till följd av försurande nedfall fram till 1980 då nedfallet kraftigt minskade, varefter koncentrationer av TOC började öka. Det noterades i studien att ökningen av TOC efter 1980 varit snabbare än vad minskningen var före 1980 på grund av försurande nedfall. Syftet med den här studien var därför att undersöka hypotesen att den senaste tidens ökning av TOC inte bara berott på minskat nedfall av försurande ämnen, utan även på grund av klimatförändringar. Det var möjligt att undersöka de långsiktiga effekterna av industrialisering och klimatförändringar på TOC i ytvatten genom att analysera rekonstruerad TOC data, klimatdata från början av 1900-talet, modellerad sulfatdepositionsdata och miljöövervakningsdata med uni- och multivariata analysmetoder. Resultaten visade att den senaste tidens ökning av TOC kunde förklaras med både en minskande deposition av försurande ämnen och en ökad nederbörd, medan ökande temperaturer kan ha haft en minskande effekt på TOC. Resultaten visade även att förändringshastigheten av TOC-koncentrationer varit snabbare i de norra, kalla delarna av Sverige och långsammare i de varmare södra. Resultaten indikerar att koncentrationer av TOC kommer att öka till nivåer som aldrig tidigare skådats, vilket är något vattenreningsverk kommer att behöva anpassa sina reningsmetoder till i framtiden.