This dissertation utilizes data from four sub-watersheds in the Little River Experimental Watershed, GA to develop models to improve forecast predictions related to the management of surface-water pollution due to non-point source runoff. Non-point source pollution is the primary cause of US surface-water quality impairment and a main transport mechanism for pathogens and other pollutants into receiving surface water bodies (US EPA 2008). In response to pollution reduction and watershed remediation mandates under the Federal Clean Water Act (1972)-particularly the Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) program-the role of water quality modeling in effectively rehabilitating impaired waters has taken on greater importance. Consequently, the significance of this study is that it is the first of its kind to incorporate a multi-model approach to address limitations in using single water quality models. In this regard, it builds on water quality engineering research by presenting methods to estimate contaminant concentrations and reduce uncertainty in overall model predictions in impaired water-bodies. Methodologically, the key point of departure in this dissertation is centered on the fact that water quality modeling is the cornerstone of TMDL analyses but the associated prediction uncertainty affects their adequacy in providing reliable contaminant loadings estimates in an impaired water body. As such, utilizing hydrological and water-quality process equations embedded in the two most widely used watershed-scale models, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and Hydrological Simulation Program-Fortran (HSPF), and observed data from the sub-watersheds mentioned above, the dissertation addresses this limitation by combining results from the two competing models to reduce uncertainty and enhance accuracy of predictions. The study was conducted in two phases. First, HSPF and SWAT-two extensively-used, scientifically-rigorous, US EPA-approved watershed-scale codes-were used to build models of the four study catchments. The models were individually calibrated and shown (based on Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) ratios) to produce reliable simulations of the hydrologic and water quality conditions in the watershed. The second phase of the analysis involved using a multi-model approach to combine model forecasts. Model combination, introduced by Bates and Granger in 1969, has emerged as a viable analytical technique (Claesken and Hjort, 2008; Ajami et al., 2006) and widely-used across disciplines to improve model-forecasting results (Kim et al., 2006; Shamseldin et al., 1997; Granger, 2001; Clemens, 1989; Thompson, 1976; Newbold and Granger, 1974; Dickinson, 1973). After calibration, the model predictions were combined for each catchment using three different methods: the Weighted Average Method (WAM), the Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency Maximization Method (NSE-max) and an Artificial Neural Network Method (ANN). Comparison of the results of the multi-model formulation with original individual model results showed improved estimates with all three combination methods. The improvement in model accuracy (based on NSE ratios) varied from modest to significant in both hydrologic and water quality variables. These improvements were attributed to a reduction in model structural uncertainty resulting from the ability to capture aspects of some of the more complex watershed interactions from exogenous information provided by the contributing models. It should be noted here, however, that as model availability increases, if additional models (beyond those utilized here) are used with this approach, care should be taken to ensure the credibility of each individual model for simulating the watershed scale processes under review. Limitations of this study include possible bias introduced by the use of deterministic models to estimate probabilistic contaminant distributions, limitations in available data, and the use of a seven-year study period that did not account for possible impacts of shorter periods of extreme hydrologic conditions on the individual model performances and model combination weightings. Recommendations for future research include (a) improving watershed-scale codes to better describe the probability distribution functions characteristic of contaminant distributions and data collection on wildlife species and populations; and investigating the fate and transport processes of pathogenic indicator bacteria deposited in forested areas and the impact of extreme hydrologic conditions on model performance and weighting. Overall, the findings from this dissertation suggest that water quality modeling incorporating a multi-model approach has the potential to significantly improve predictions compared to the predictions obtained when only one model is used. Clearly, the findings reported here have significant implications in improving TMDL analyses and remediation plans by presenting an approach that exploits the strengths of two of the most complete and well-accepted watershed-scale water quality models in the United States. Moreover, the findings of this dissertation auger well for the future of TMDL management in that it provides a more robust and cost effective basis for policy makers to decide on effective management strategies that incorporate acceptable risk, allowable loading and land use.

The Songtao reservoir, located in the center of Hainan province, is one of the ten biggest reservoirs in China. Since agriculture is the main industry in the watershed, non-point source (NPS) pollution is the primary pollutant source affecting water quality in the reservoir. A scientific approach is required to assess NPS pollution in the Songtao watershed in order to support planning and decision making process related to land use and water resource management. This study compared several commonly used NPS hydrological models in order to identify a suitable model for NPS pollution analysis in the Songtao reservoir. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was selected as the model to be used in this research. In order to put the SWAT model to practical use, a prototype web-based application was developed to help officers in local government in China to use the SWAT model in their decision making process. In addition, spatial and non spatial data about the Songtao watershed area were collected for the SWAT model. Despite data limitations, ArcSWAT software was employed to develop relative scenarios to assess the NPS pollution in the reservoir. One land use scenario was developed to identify an environmentally sensitive basin in the Songtao watershed and the other was created to demonstrate the consequences of over-exploiting forest land in local area. The limitations of using SWAT model in Hainan province were discussed. Further research opportunities such as data collection and model calibration and validation were identified. In addition, possible improvements to the web-based application were presented.

The Songtao reservoir, located in the center of Hainan province, is one of the ten biggest reservoirs in China. Since agriculture is the main industry in the watershed, non-point source (NPS) pollution is the primary pollutant source affecting water quality in the reservoir. A scientific approach is required to assess NPS pollution in the Songtao watershed in order to support planning and decision making process related to land use and water resource management. This study compared several commonly used NPS hydrological models in order to identify a suitable model for NPS pollution analysis in the Songtao reservoir. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was selected as the model to be used in this research. In order to put the SWAT model to practical use, a prototype web-based application was developed to help officers in local government in China to use the SWAT model in their decision making process. In addition, spatial and non spatial data about the Songtao watershed area were collected for the SWAT model. Despite data limitations, ArcSWAT software was employed to develop relative scenarios to assess the NPS pollution in the reservoir. One land use scenario was developed to identify an environmentally sensitive basin in the Songtao watershed and the other was created to demonstrate the consequences of over-exploiting forest land in local area. The limitations of using SWAT model in Hainan province were discussed. Further research opportunities such as data collection and model calibration and validation were identified. In addition, possible improvements to the web-based application were presented.

The purpose of this study was to assess feedstock logistics for a mobile pyrolysis system and to quantify the amount of soil loss caused by harvesting agricultural feedstocks for bioenergy production. The analysis of feedstock logistics was conducted using ArcGIS with the Network Analyst extension and model builder. A square grid methodology was used to determine biomass availability of corn stover and bioenergy sorghum in Texas. The SWAT model was used to quantify soil erosion losses in surface runoff caused by sorghum residue removal for bioenergy production in the Oso Creek Watershed in Nueces County. The model simulated the removal of 25, 50, 75, and 100 percent residue removal. The WEPS model was used to quantify wind erosion soil loss caused by corn stover removal in Dallam County. Nine simulations were run estimating soil loss for corn stover removal rates of 0 percent to 50 percent. The results of the SWAT and WEPS analyses were compared to the NRCS tolerable soil loss limit of 5 tons/acre/year for both study areas. The GIS analysis determined the optimum route distances between mobile unit sites were 2.07 to 58.02 km for corn and 1.95 to 60.36 km for sorghum. The optimum routes from the mobile pyrolysis sites and the closest refineries were 49.50 to 187.18 km for corn and 7.00 to 220.11 km for sorghum. These results were used as input to a separate bioenergy economic model. The SWAT analysis found that maximum soil loss (1.24 tons/acre) occurred during the final year of the simulation where 100 percent of the sorghum residue was removed. The WEPS analysis determined that at 30 percent removal the amount of soil loss starts to increase exponentially with increasing residue removal and exceeds the tolerable soil loss limit. Limited harvesting of biomass for bioenergy production will be required to protect crop and soil productivity ensuring a sustainable biomass source.

Diss ETH Zürich, 2008 ; Nr. 18081. / Zusammenfassung in Englisch und Französisch. Bibliogr.: p. 163-174.

O objetivo desta tese foi avaliar os impactos decorrentes das mudanças de uso da terra e da variabilidade climática nos recursos hídricos (vazão e fluxo de sedimentos), em mesoescala (bacia do rio Piracicaba) e em pequena escala (microbacia do Ribeirão das Posses), através de um estudo de modelagem numérica com o modelo SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool). Foram utilizados dados de modelo numérico de terreno, mapas de solo e uso da terra, temperatura, precipitação, vento, radiação solar e umidade relativa para forçar o modelo SWAT. O modelo mostrou resultados satisfatórios de desempenho na comparação com dados observados, conforme mostram os índices estatísticos na bacia do rio Piracicaba (COE entre 0,97 e 0,99 para vazão e de 0,90 para fluxo de sedimentos) e no Ribeirão das Posses (COE de 0,53 para a vazão e 0,7 para fluxo de sedimentos). Nas simulações de modificações de uso da terra os resultados indicam que em ambas as bacias as maiores vazões ocorrem nos cenários de desflorestamento, sendo o cenário de pastagem o de valores mais expressivos. O modelo correspondeu às evidências de que as vazões máximas, por exemplo os eventos de inundações, podem ser mitigados com o reflorestamento e que o cenário de antropização com gramíneas, no caso das pastagens e cana-de-açúcar, os eventos extremos tendem a ser aumentados ainda mais. Na avaliação da simulação dos fluxos de sedimentos, o cenário de reflorestamento por eucalipto mostra redução na perda do solo, porém ainda abaixo do cenário de reflorestamento por vegetação nativa, que apresentou os menores valores de fluxo de sedimentos, em ambas as bacias. Na simulação levando-se em consideração as mudanças climáticas, os resultados mostram aumento de vazão para o futuro (2078-2098) e consequente aumento de fluxo de sedimento, sendo um aumento médio de 12 % nas vazões do Piracicaba e de 19 % no fluxo de sedimentos. No Ribeirão das Posses este padrão de resposta também ocorreu, com aumento de 46% na vazão e 40 % no fluxo de sedimentos. / The aim of this thesis was to evaluate the impacts of changes in land use and climate variability on water resources (discharge and sediment fluxes), into mesoscale (Piracicaba River basin) and small-scale (watershed Ribeirão das Posses) processes throughout a study of numerical modeling with SWAT model (Soil and Water Assessment Tool). Data of numerical model of terrain, soil maps and land use, temperature, precipitation, wind speed, solar radiation and relative humidity forced the SWAT model. The model showed a satisfactory performance in comparison with the observed data, as showed by the statistical indices of the Piracicaba River Basin (COE between 0.97 and 0.99 to 0.90 for flow and sediment fluxes) and Ribeirão das Posses (COE of 0.53 to 0.7 for flow and sediment fluxes). In simulations of changes in land use the results indicate that in both basins larger flows occur in the case of deforestation scenarios, being the scene of the pasture the highest values. The model corresponded to the evidence that peak flows, for example the events of flooding can be mitigated with reforestation and the scenario of anthropogenic with grasses for grazing land and sugar cane, extreme events tend to be further enhanced too. In assessing the simulation of sediment flows, the scenario of reforestation with eucalyptus shows reduction in soil loss, but still below the scenario reforestation with native vegetation, which presented the lowest values of sediment flux in both basins. In the simulation taking into account climate change, the results show increased flow to the future (2078-2098) and consequent increase in stream sediment, with an average 12% increase in the flows of Piracicaba and 19 % in the flow sediment. In Ribeirão das Posses this response pattern also occurred with a 46% increase in throughput and 40 % in the stream sediments.

Os processos de erosão e produção de sedimentos constituem eventos de grande relevância na atualidade, ocorrendo em escala global e ocasionando prejuízos nas esferas ambiental, econômica e social. Diversas pesquisas concentram seus esforços no sentido de entender as variáveis e os condicionantes destes fenômenos, os quais vêm sendo compreendidos por meio da multidisciplinaridade de diversas áreas do conhecimento. Nesse contexto, o presente estudo teve como objetivo realizar um diagnóstico da produção de sedimentos e de seu transporte na bacia hidrográfica do Rio Itaqueri, localizada nos municípios de Itirapina e Brotas - SP, na qual está inserido o Reservatório do Lobo ou do Broa. Dentre os elementos de análise, foi utilizado o simulador hidrossedimentológico SWAT para estimar a produção de sedimentos na bacia, bem como foi realizado o monitoramento da qualidade da água, a quantificação da carga sólida em suspensão e a determinação da granulometria do material de leito em seções de amostragem localizadas nos principais tributários do reservatório. Por meio da simulação, verificou-se que ocorrem na bacia áreas com diferentes comportamentos hidrossedimentológicos, com locais onde a produção anual média de sedimentos chega a 18 t/ha e outras áreas onde esta é próxima de zero. Foi constatado que o Rio Itaqueri contribuiu com 65% do total anual médio de sedimentos que chega ao reservatório, sendo neste rio também observados os maiores valores de carga sólida em suspensão. A parte alta da bacia configurou-se como uma área de maior aporte de sedimentos na rede de drenagem, sendo os reflexos desta dinâmica observados na qualidade da água destes locais, enquanto nas áreas de médio e baixo curso evidenciou-se a predominância de processos deposicionais. Verificou-se que as análises de parâmetros de qualidade da água e de caracterização do sedimento permitiram complementar os resultados obtidos pelo SWAT, fornecendo subsídios para uma melhor compreensão da dinâmica sedimentológica da bacia. / The soil erosion and the sediment yield are considered one of the biggest present environmental problems, a worldwide issue that inflicts environmental, economic and social damages. Many researches have efforts to understand the variables and constraints of these phenomenon, which have been understood through the multidisciplinarity of different areas of knowledge. In this context, this study attempts to obtain a diagnosis of sediment yield and its transport in Itaqueri River basin, in which is inserted the Lobo-Broa Reservoir. The hydrosedimentological model SWAT was used to estimate the sediment yield in the basin, as well was performed the monitoring of water quality, the quantifying of suspended-sediment discharge and the determination of bed material particle size distributions in streams. Through simulation, it was observed that occur in the basin different hydrosedimentological behaviors, where the average annual production of sediments is 18 t/ha, and its null in some places. It was observed that Itaqueri River contributed 65% of total average annual sediment reaching the reservoir, and this river also has the highest values of suspended-sediment discharge. The upper part of the basin was shown as an area of major input of sediment in drainage network, influencing the water quality in these sub-catchments, while middle course and low course of the river revealed the predominance of depositional processes. Water quality parameters and characterization of river bed sediment supplemented the results obtained by SWAT model, supporting a better understanding of hydrosedimentological processes.

O objetivo desta tese foi avaliar os impactos decorrentes das mudanças de uso da terra e da variabilidade climática nos recursos hídricos (vazão e fluxo de sedimentos), em mesoescala (bacia do rio Piracicaba) e em pequena escala (microbacia do Ribeirão das Posses), através de um estudo de modelagem numérica com o modelo SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool). Foram utilizados dados de modelo numérico de terreno, mapas de solo e uso da terra, temperatura, precipitação, vento, radiação solar e umidade relativa para forçar o modelo SWAT. O modelo mostrou resultados satisfatórios de desempenho na comparação com dados observados, conforme mostram os índices estatísticos na bacia do rio Piracicaba (COE entre 0,97 e 0,99 para vazão e de 0,90 para fluxo de sedimentos) e no Ribeirão das Posses (COE de 0,53 para a vazão e 0,7 para fluxo de sedimentos). Nas simulações de modificações de uso da terra os resultados indicam que em ambas as bacias as maiores vazões ocorrem nos cenários de desflorestamento, sendo o cenário de pastagem o de valores mais expressivos. O modelo correspondeu às evidências de que as vazões máximas, por exemplo os eventos de inundações, podem ser mitigados com o reflorestamento e que o cenário de antropização com gramíneas, no caso das pastagens e cana-de-açúcar, os eventos extremos tendem a ser aumentados ainda mais. Na avaliação da simulação dos fluxos de sedimentos, o cenário de reflorestamento por eucalipto mostra redução na perda do solo, porém ainda abaixo do cenário de reflorestamento por vegetação nativa, que apresentou os menores valores de fluxo de sedimentos, em ambas as bacias. Na simulação levando-se em consideração as mudanças climáticas, os resultados mostram aumento de vazão para o futuro (2078-2098) e consequente aumento de fluxo de sedimento, sendo um aumento médio de 12 % nas vazões do Piracicaba e de 19 % no fluxo de sedimentos. No Ribeirão das Posses este padrão de resposta também ocorreu, com aumento de 46% na vazão e 40 % no fluxo de sedimentos. / The aim of this thesis was to evaluate the impacts of changes in land use and climate variability on water resources (discharge and sediment fluxes), into mesoscale (Piracicaba River basin) and small-scale (watershed Ribeirão das Posses) processes throughout a study of numerical modeling with SWAT model (Soil and Water Assessment Tool). Data of numerical model of terrain, soil maps and land use, temperature, precipitation, wind speed, solar radiation and relative humidity forced the SWAT model. The model showed a satisfactory performance in comparison with the observed data, as showed by the statistical indices of the Piracicaba River Basin (COE between 0.97 and 0.99 to 0.90 for flow and sediment fluxes) and Ribeirão das Posses (COE of 0.53 to 0.7 for flow and sediment fluxes). In simulations of changes in land use the results indicate that in both basins larger flows occur in the case of deforestation scenarios, being the scene of the pasture the highest values. The model corresponded to the evidence that peak flows, for example the events of flooding can be mitigated with reforestation and the scenario of anthropogenic with grasses for grazing land and sugar cane, extreme events tend to be further enhanced too. In assessing the simulation of sediment flows, the scenario of reforestation with eucalyptus shows reduction in soil loss, but still below the scenario reforestation with native vegetation, which presented the lowest values of sediment flux in both basins. In the simulation taking into account climate change, the results show increased flow to the future (2078-2098) and consequent increase in stream sediment, with an average 12% increase in the flows of Piracicaba and 19 % in the flow sediment. In Ribeirão das Posses this response pattern also occurred with a 46% increase in throughput and 40 % in the stream sediments.

Os processos de erosão e produção de sedimentos constituem eventos de grande relevância na atualidade, ocorrendo em escala global e ocasionando prejuízos nas esferas ambiental, econômica e social. Diversas pesquisas concentram seus esforços no sentido de entender as variáveis e os condicionantes destes fenômenos, os quais vêm sendo compreendidos por meio da multidisciplinaridade de diversas áreas do conhecimento. Nesse contexto, o presente estudo teve como objetivo realizar um diagnóstico da produção de sedimentos e de seu transporte na bacia hidrográfica do Rio Itaqueri, localizada nos municípios de Itirapina e Brotas - SP, na qual está inserido o Reservatório do Lobo ou do Broa. Dentre os elementos de análise, foi utilizado o simulador hidrossedimentológico SWAT para estimar a produção de sedimentos na bacia, bem como foi realizado o monitoramento da qualidade da água, a quantificação da carga sólida em suspensão e a determinação da granulometria do material de leito em seções de amostragem localizadas nos principais tributários do reservatório. Por meio da simulação, verificou-se que ocorrem na bacia áreas com diferentes comportamentos hidrossedimentológicos, com locais onde a produção anual média de sedimentos chega a 18 t/ha e outras áreas onde esta é próxima de zero. Foi constatado que o Rio Itaqueri contribuiu com 65% do total anual médio de sedimentos que chega ao reservatório, sendo neste rio também observados os maiores valores de carga sólida em suspensão. A parte alta da bacia configurou-se como uma área de maior aporte de sedimentos na rede de drenagem, sendo os reflexos desta dinâmica observados na qualidade da água destes locais, enquanto nas áreas de médio e baixo curso evidenciou-se a predominância de processos deposicionais. Verificou-se que as análises de parâmetros de qualidade da água e de caracterização do sedimento permitiram complementar os resultados obtidos pelo SWAT, fornecendo subsídios para uma melhor compreensão da dinâmica sedimentológica da bacia. / The soil erosion and the sediment yield are considered one of the biggest present environmental problems, a worldwide issue that inflicts environmental, economic and social damages. Many researches have efforts to understand the variables and constraints of these phenomenon, which have been understood through the multidisciplinarity of different areas of knowledge. In this context, this study attempts to obtain a diagnosis of sediment yield and its transport in Itaqueri River basin, in which is inserted the Lobo-Broa Reservoir. The hydrosedimentological model SWAT was used to estimate the sediment yield in the basin, as well was performed the monitoring of water quality, the quantifying of suspended-sediment discharge and the determination of bed material particle size distributions in streams. Through simulation, it was observed that occur in the basin different hydrosedimentological behaviors, where the average annual production of sediments is 18 t/ha, and its null in some places. It was observed that Itaqueri River contributed 65% of total average annual sediment reaching the reservoir, and this river also has the highest values of suspended-sediment discharge. The upper part of the basin was shown as an area of major input of sediment in drainage network, influencing the water quality in these sub-catchments, while middle course and low course of the river revealed the predominance of depositional processes. Water quality parameters and characterization of river bed sediment supplemented the results obtained by SWAT model, supporting a better understanding of hydrosedimentological processes.

<p>Soil and water assessment tool model (SWAT model) is a widely used model when dealing with large and complex watershed simulations. To correctly predict runoff of a watershed, auto-calibration methods are applied. Among all the platforms, SWAT CUP is widely used in the SWAT model community. The new web-based calibration platform: SWATShare is also gaining its popularity due to the benefits of user-friendly interface, access to high-performance computing resources, and collaborative interface. While the algorithm implemented in SWAT CUP is Sequential Uncertainty Fitting version 2 (SUFI2), Sorting Genetic Algorithm II (NSGA-II) is the algorithm employed by SWATShare. There is a limited amount of research comparing the model performance between these two calibration algorithms and platforms. </p> <p> </p> <p>This study aims to examine whether the performances of calibrated models are providing equally reliable results. Thirty US watersheds are studied in this research, SWAT models were calibrated using seven years of rainfall data and outflow observations from 2001 to 2007, and then the models were validated using three years of historical records from 2008 to 2010. Inconsistency exists between different algorithms calibrated parameter sets, and the percentage difference between parameter values ranges from 8.7% to 331.5%. However, in two-thirds of the study basins, there is no significant difference between objective function values in two algorithms calibrated models. Correlations are examined using values of parameters and watershed features. Among all the features and parameters, Length of reach and GW_DELAY, CH_N2 and ALPHA_BF, climate zone and GWQMN, SFTMP and NSE have medium correlation exist in both SWATShare and SWAT CUP calibrated models among 30 watersheds. The correlation coefficient difference between them are less than 0.1. When visualizing results by Ecoregions, KGE and NSE are similar in calibrated models from both tools. </p> <p> </p> <p>The initial parameter range used for SWAT CUP calibration could lead to satisfactory results with greater than 0.5 objective function values. However, the parameter values of the calibrated model might not be presenting a real physical condition since they are out of the realistic range. The inaccurate parameter values might lead to lower objective function values in the validation. The objective function values can be improved by setting the range of parameter values to match the realistic values. </p> <p> </p> <p> </p> <p>By comparing two tools, SWATShare accurately calibrates parameter values to a realistic range using default range in most cases. For those models with an unsatisfactory result from SWATShare, the objective function values could be improved after specifying the parameters to the best-fit range given by SWAT CUP results. Also, for those watersheds which have similar satisfactory calibrated objective values from both tools, constraining the parameter to a reasonable range could generate a new calibrated model that performs as well as the original one. Using the approach to constrain parameter values to a realistic range gradually can exclude some statistically satisfactory but physically meaningless models. Comparing two auto-calibration software, SWATShare accurately calibrates parameter values to a realistic range using default range in most cases. Also, in some of the ecoregions, the best parameter sets in SWATShare fall in a more physically meaningful range. Overall, the newly emerged platform, SWATShare, is found to have the capability of conducting good SWAT model calibration. </p>